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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/25/2009
DBC (DB Commodity Index ETF--$20.69; -0.32; optionable)
After Hours: $20.52
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice pullback in commodities the past couple of days is forming the handle to its 12 week base. Commodities were one of the leaders in the last rally and now it is retrenching a bit, setting up for a new move. Holding support a the 90 day SMA (20.50) as well as the February peak. Gapped down showing a doji and ready to move in as DBC continues back to the upside.
Volume: 1.586M Avg Volume: 1.208M
BUY POINT: $20.82 Volume=1.8M Target=$23.95 Stop=$20.12
POSITION: DOB GT - July $20c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dbc.html
Play Date: 03/25/2009
DO (Diamond Offshore--$68.87; -1.38; optionable): Offshore drilling services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/do.html
After Hours: $68.60
EARNINGS: 02/05/2009
STATUS: Test breakout. DO broke out of the top of its 4 month trading range and has been fighting to hold it the past week. Strong volume on the break higher and lower trade on the lateral move. Nice tap at the 10 day EMA on the Wednesday low (66.07) and then a nice recovery to recoup most of the loss. Set up nicely to make the break higher; may take another session or so but we will just give it the time it needs and then pick it up on the breakout.
Volume: 2.411M Avg Volume: 3.57M
BUY POINT: $70.57 Volume=5M Target=$81.95 Stop=$67.48
POSITION: DO FN - June $70c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/do.html
Play Date: 03/25/2009
OPTR (Optimer Pharmaceuticals--$11.98; +0.21; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/optr.html
EARNINGS: 03/11/2009
STATUS: Ascending triangle. A new issue in Q1 2008, OPTR broke to a new high in late December, rallying to 12. There it stalled and then formed the current base, making a series of lower highs below that constant top at 12. OPTR is now pinching off at the narrows of the pattern and looking for a strong breakout move as these breaks release a lot of pressure over a short period of time. Indeed, it is worth it to get in with at least some positions here and then let it make the break. If it doesn't pan out then the stop loss is pretty close at hand.
Volume: 336.778K Avg Volume: 278.374K
BUY POINT: $12.15 Volume=415K Target=$14.65 Stop=$11.36
POSITION: QDT FB - June $10c (79 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/optr.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 03/25/2009
HES (Hess Corp.--$64.35; -0.67; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hes.html
After Hours: $64.35
EARNINGS: 01/28/2009
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice run the past two weeks took HES, finally, over its January and February peaks. Coming back to test the past two sessions, tapping the 10 day EMA on the Wednesday low (64.99) and rebounding to recoup most of the loss. Showing a nice doji on the candlestick chart after a short pullback and ready to move in as HES blasts higher off this test and on toward the 200 day SMA (73.90).
Volume: 5.265M Avg Volume: 5.091M
BUY POINT: $65.31 Volume=6.5M Target=$72.95 Stop=$62.77
POSITION: IGG EM - May $65c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hes.html
Downside: In case the market stalls and turns.
Play Date: 03/25/2009
CAT (Caterpillar--$28.91; -0.49; optionable): Heavy machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cat.html
After Hours: $29.45
EARNINGS: 01/26/2009
STATUS: Put. Just in case. CAT has rallied up to the February bottom that is coincident with the 50 day EMA (30.14). Turned back from that resistance Wednesday on the strongest volume in three weeks and easily above average. If the market breaks lower CAT is in position to lead it lower. A move to the target lands a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 20.702M Avg Volume: 15.862M
BUY POINT: $27.37 Volume=20M Target=$23.26 Stop=$29.85
POSITION: CXJ QD - May $30p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cat.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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