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Begin Part 2 of 2
Weekly Economic Calendar (All times Eastern). The figures are the consensus expectations, not ours.
4-24-02
Durable Orders, March (8:30): 0.5% versus 1.8% prior
New Home Sales, March (10:00): 880K versus 875K prior
Fed's Beige Book (14:00)
4-25-02
Initial Claims, 4/20 (8:30): 425K versus 445K
Employment Cost Index, Q1 (8:30): 0.9% versus 0.9% prior
Help-Wanted Index, March (10:00): NA versus 51
Existing Home Sales, March (10:00): 5.60M versus 5.88M prior
4-26-02
GDP-Adv., Q1 (8:30): 5.0% verus 1.7%
Chain Deflator-Adv., Q1 (8:30): 1.5% versus -0.1% prior
Mich. Sentiment-Rev., April (9:45): 95.0 versus 94.4 prior
TEAM TRADES
SEBL: One of the puts we were looking at on the Daily, after a breach of the 200 day MVA two weeks earlier and a weak move up to test that breach. This is one of our favorite entry points on downside plays: breach of major support, then the test of that. If the test fails, that shows that the stock does not have any power in the upside move, and more downside is ahead. This is particularly true with the 200 day MVA as institutions tend to use this as a selling point. If they were selling on the way down, a breach of the 200 day MVA can mean even more unloading of shares.
Early in the session SEBL opened lower with a gap down and then did intraday what we were seeing on the larger chart: rallied a bit to test the move lower. We were expecting it to stall at the prior session's close or at the prior session's low. It did not even reach the low before it started to roll over about 25 minutes into the session. That was good enough for us. We saw the stock peak out near 26.50, and when it started to sell, jumped in fast with some August 35 puts. They were asking 9.00, and we put in a limit order at that price as the spread was not bad at 20 cents. After the fill the stock continued its fade, attempting a bounce about every half hour that was met with more selling pressure. After lunch it tapped near 25.60, and that proved to be the low for the session, as SEBL worked its way back up to close near 25.90. Volume did not surge on the selling, but it did rise. With continued tech pressure for a couple more days we should get our play out of it.
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information. A "prior high" refers to the high at the start of a base.
For conserving space on listings of stop losses, the symbol (7%) indicates that the stop is 7% below the buy point.
Stocks from Wednesday report:
RPM: Tried to make the move but stalled.
GMRK: Massive breakout!
CAT: Breaking down but would like more volume.
SEBL: Breaking down as well on slightly higher volume.
Continued Plays:
OEX put: Very close to the target on the low, and we still think it will hit it and perhaps lower.
BELM: Wrong action falling below the 50 day MVA.
ATPX: Not bad, coming right back and still easily in the test.
AGAM: Ever tightening handle. Looks very good if it can get a catalyst.
STSA: Still in the tight wedge and looking for that strong breakout.
GYMB: Holding at the 10 day MVA, but on slightly higher volume. Still testing the breakout.
OATS: Up again today after Friday's recovery. Volume is still anemic, but it is holding the handle.
HNT: Started higher once more and then finished flat on rising, above average volume. May still get a chance to enter around 27.50 this week, but showing life again.
SNIC: Still hanging in there and looking for that move over 8.
ASBC: Nope, not ready. Regional banks are starting to look like some trouble.
HUM: Paused today after the strong breakout.
PMSI: Health services. Took a rest as well on much lower volume.
CCRN: Still very low volume as it works through a decent if not a bit volatile handle.
PEGS: Just as fast it turned off the 50 day MVA and jumped on sharply higher volume. May give the new highs soon after all.
OMX: Lower on very low volume. Just testing the earlier move from the looks of it. Pullin toward 6.50.
HARB: Tight doji on the 18 day MVA on low volume. Not bad action after the breakout. Good test so far.
SIMG: Looks as if it is ready to continue higher already. Excellent on good, above average volume.
VWKS: Still in the handle on lower and lower volume.
Best Plays:
1) OREX: Nice wedge.
2) ZQK: Retail apparel, but like the handle.
3) TDS: Another put.
New plays:
OREX (Isolyser Co.--$3.29; +0.19; optionable): Medical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/orex.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Close to a 52-week high as it moved up today close to the breakout on strong, above average volume (166K; avg. is 116K). Money flow is huge and relative strength has already broken out. Not near an all-time high of 22, but a good sector to be in from the looks of the market and from the moves this stock is making.
BUY POINT: 3.40 on volume of 150K+. Target=5 (initial); then 6.35. Stop=3.
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/orex.html
TDS (Telephone & Data Systems--$85.70; -2.70; optionable): Wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tds.html
STATUS: Put. News from WCOM, ERICY, NOK and the telecom sector in general really stinks. TDS is reflecting that as its stock has fallen sharply the past week, today breaking below the 50 day MVA on above average volume (218K; avg. is 191.6K). It tried to breakout of its recent range last week, moving over 91, but reversed hard. The selling volume has been above average on the way down. Now this was a strong break, and we could see TDS test back up to the 50 day MVA (87.40) before it continues down due to the hard fall. That would be our preferred entry point: a test of 87.40 and then a fall from there. Our first buy point would be on a fall from that level, and then again on a move below 86.
BUY POINT: After a test of 87.40, and then a break below 86 on continued above average volume (200K). Target=80.50. Stop=89.
POSITION: August 90p to buy (TDS TR)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/tds.html
ZQK (Quicksilver--$24.80; -0.20; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zqk.html
STATUS: Yes we said retail may be losing steam, but this is an excellent pattern still, an 11-months cup with handle. The handle has formed in a very tight range, slowly drifting back to the 10 day MVA (24.70) on very low, below average volume (105K; avg. is 245K). Very good action in the handle. Moreover, during the base the price/volume action has been very good with up weeks on rising volume easily outnumbering down weeks on rising volume. Relative strength is ready to breakout as well.
BUY POINT: 25.60 on volume of 368K+. Target=30.75. Some resistance at 28. Stop=23.75.
POSITION: Stock and/or August 20c to buy (ZQK HD).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/zqk.html
Revisited:
MYK (Mykrolis--$16.50; 0.00; no options): Liquid purification for use in manufacturing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/myk.html
STATUS: Test BO. Broke out earlier in the months and is now in a very nice test of that breakout on low volume (160K; avg. is 469K). It held above the 10 day MVA (16.01) and bounced from the open today. (16.01) and bounced from the open today. Money flow remains strong and we like the lower volume consolidation. WE are looking for a bounce up off of this level on much stronger volume for aggressive positions and a breakout over the high at 18.15 as a sign of strength. To carry the stock further.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 17 on volume of 500K or better. Target: 20.40 for new positions. Stop=15.75.
POSITIONS: Stock (no option chain).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/myk.html
PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: DGX, FRX, LLL, MIK. New: ICUI; RMCI
RMCI (26.65; +2.45): After collapsing to the 50 day MVA, RMCI has vaulted back on massive volume (1.03 million Monday), back over the buy point of 26. We are going to reload and take some more positions here.
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: BBBY, SRCL
BBBY (35.33; -0.29): Getting very quiet as it works over the 10 day MVA (35.05) and the breakout point at 36. Quiet before the storm? We see some buying sneaking back into the picture.
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CSCO, SEBL, EMLX, BRCM, HDI, BRCD, BUD, AMGN, WMT, ORCL, HB, NOC
SEBL (25.81; -1.20): Hit the buy point on the put on slightly rising volume (13.3 million). Still looking for that test down to the recent low or beyond.
BRCD (24.95; -0.35): Still falling on the put play, but rose off the low of 24.06 today to close. Volume was still low, but we are still looking for a move down to 22.50 initially, then 21.50.
NOC (112.24; -1.66): Testing the 50 day MVA on declining, below average volume. It tapped the 50 day on the low (111.30) and bounced. No strong volume on the bounce; usually we like to see volume rise as a sign institutions are buying. With the TRW acquisition attempt, the action is a bit volatile.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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