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world stock market, us stock market
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6/09/09 Investment House Alerts
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IH Alert Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit alerts: None issued
Buy alerts: COH; EDU; MEOH; MU; NETL; SNDK
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
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VIDEO MARKET SUMMARY
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We are offering a video market summary featuring Jon Johnson talking about the market, the economy, and what is next for investors. We hope you enjoy this added feature to your subscription! We still include the normal Market Summary format so you have both a video to listen to while commuting or multitasking as well as the written report for review.
TO VIEW THE VIDEO MARKET SUMMARY CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/marketsummary.wmv
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SUMMARY:
- No new index breakouts but leaders start to make new breaks higher.
- Supreme Court fails to acknowledge secured debt rights.
- Treasury announces the select 10 that can leave the TARP.
- Wholesale inventories fall further: glass half full time.
- Still looking for an SP500 breakout, but with early leaders running the financials might finally re-engage.
Supreme Court refuses to acknowledge secured debt rights, allows Chrysler sale to proceed.
I had a very carefully laid out agenda for this evening but just before I started filming, the Supreme Court came out with this ruling regarding the Chrysler sale to Fiat. In a nutshell, the Supreme Court is going to allow the sale to go through. It is saying that the secure debt holders, some of which are in the Indiana state pension funds simply do not have what really are secure debt interests; in other words, it is a politically expedient decision. What they are doing is allowing contract rights - carefully established and created over 200 years in American jurisprudence - to be thrown out the window. This is the kind of thing that third-world countries do. Third-world countries debase their currency, allow hyperinflation to set in, and then throw the rule of contract out the window because it does not fit the political climate of the day. When we are trying to sell trillions of dollars of debt to other countries, does it make sense that we would allow the rule of law and sanctity of contract in the United States (which have made it a great investment haven for over 200 years) to simply be stepped on? It does not, but that is exactly what we are doing. It is politically expedient to sell Chrysler to Fiat and therefore no one gets in the way. It is a sad day for America and while I do believe we may not pay the price immediately, our children and grandchildren will pay down the road.
Leaders start to break higher. Will SP500 follow?
There were no new index breakouts Tuesday, but there were good moves. The NASDAQ continued to move up following it is prior breakout last week. SP500 continued to bump up against the January peak. No new breakouts, but it was a positive day. As for the news, the Treasury announced which banks it would allow out from under the TARP. It named ten banks, notably not on the list was WFC, though nonetheless WFC was slightly up on the day. Banks did not respond negatively or favorably, but continued their basing pattern. Still a positive and it is a positive that WFC - that did not make the list of ten - actually managed to hold its pattern and improve a little on the day.
Congress issued subpoenas to the Fed for documents regarding the Citibank-Merrill Lynch takeover. Citibank claims it was forced to take over Merrill and forced to take over at a certain price. In other words, the federal government told Citi that it would take over Merrill as well as what it would pay for it. Given what FOIA request have revealed as to how things were handled during the fall of 2008, this is not surprising. What is nice is that Congress is actually doing its job in finding out in what happened. I wish it would continue doing that job for the things that are going on now because there are some equally disturbing things happening.
China said that its stimulus is working. Its May car sales jumped the most since 2006. Case in point of a stimulus plan that works for that economy versus ours which is struggling to get underway. As a matter of fact, it is struggling so much that later this week or next week the Obama Administration is going to come out with new plans to further promote recovery. Summer jobs are one area. Hmm. They say there will be others. One thing we cannot have is trillions of dollars of more spending, especially with Supreme Court rulings such as we had this evening.
This is all on top of the news we had Monday where households in the US have $5700 in monthly revolving debt on their credit cards. Imagine each household having $5700 dollars of debt, Then imagine how much money the government has in debt that we are issuing every day to China and other countries. It literally staggers the imagination. Just thought I would throw that in there to make you feel really good about what the Supreme Court just did.
Friday and Monday the dollar bounced, but it was short lived. The dollar had been taking a hit - it bounced up Friday, but Tuesday it was back down again. It traded at 1.4069 Euros on the close, where Monday it closed at 1.3902 Euros. As the dollar backslides oil bounced back, topping $70 for the first time since October of 2008. It closed at $69.92, up $1.83 per barrel. Bonds actually backed off on this news and did not continue to surge. The 2 year closed at 1.31%, down from 1.43% on Monday while the 10 year closed at 3.86%, down from 3.91% on Monday. Usually interest rates have risen as the dollar falls, but we are in a volatile time right now; there was a quick adjustment in some of the moves and it looks like we are going back to the trend before this little backfilling episode and relief bounce in the dollar.
The market did not break out on any of this news, as SP still closed below the 944 level that represents the January high. There were leaders, however. NASDAQ was up, and technology stocks were up helping NASDAQ along. Chip stocks had a banner day on the heels of the TXN mid-quarter update where it raised both the midpoint of its revenue and its earnings. Commodities enjoyed a good day as well - metals particularly jumped back up. Basically a resumption of the trades ongoing before the dollar's hiccup. We saw great moves in the chips - with MRVL, MPWR - and the dollar's decline drove the commodities higher as we saw in AKS steel, SCHN, and then the copper stocks FCX and PCU.
We were buyers on the day. We could have done some selling on positions that have moved well, but we see leadership stocks breaking back higher after consolidating. We see the SP500 refusing to give up any ground in its tight lateral move below that January peak, NASDAQ making an early break ahead of it, continuing on toward next resistance, and SOX breaking out once more.
With all of these front runners we decided to be buyers instead of sellers because we anticipate the financials may finally get on board and help break SP500 out over the January peak. If it does that, our positions will rush higher and then we will be sellers taking some more nice gain off the table as we have done on a number of occasions during the last few weeks. We had big upside breakouts where we were buying ahead of the move - the crowd rushes in, pushes our positions higher, and we bank some nice gain. Thank you crowd.
TECHNICAL
INTRADAY. The market posted a modest open that followed the Monday bounce. As you recall, Monday the market rushed up in the last hour and a half. It tailed off toward the end of the session, but it held its gains and Tuesday the market picked up on that and moved higher. SP500 moved over the January high, but could not quite hang on. There was some choppiness late and it took stocks back down. We did not get a major rush higher, we simply got a solid move off of a modest open that sent NASDAQ and the SOX higher, but the NYSE indices are still consolidating. Thus while NASDAQ posted almost a 1% gain, you see that the Dow actually closed flat. SP500 closed up just with a .35% gain (3 points) and the small caps managed a decent showing at 0.5%.
INTERNALS. Breadth was mediocre, running around 1.5:1 - pretty much what you would expect when you look at what the NYSE did. Volume was up on NASDAQ. It was not huge and was still below average, but it was up on an upside session again. As noted the past week, NASDAQ volume has turned around. The price-volume action on NASDAQ is now positive. In other words, on the upside days, volume rises, on the downside days, it falls. It has almost been like clockwork lately. That is very positive in that it shows net accumulation of NASDAQ stocks. NYSE was lower again and has been very thin, but has not been bad because the NYSE indices - SP500, SP600, the Dow and others - have been working laterally in a tight, flat range. That is very good consolidation action that sets up a breakout. We are seeing the kind of consolidation in the individual stocks, the kind of consolidation in the indices themselves, and the kind of price-volume action that suggests a breakout is coming. It just needs a trigger. That trigger will be something that gets the financials off the dime and moves them higher out of what are some pretty decent patterns they have built over the past 5 weeks.
CHARTS. NASDAQ continued higher, moving toward that gapdown point in October. NASDAQ gapped down, rallied back up, and had some gaps going there. It is about 36-37 points away from the point where it gapped lower. It has momentum and it is still moving up with the SOX and semiconductors breaking higher and leading the way. NASDAQ could just continue to chug on up toward that 1900 level. That is about the point where it gapped down, and while it has the momentum that could keep going that point also represents where it will likely need to take some kind of rest. At the same time, you have the SP500 again unable to take out the January high, but still in that nice, tight, narrow range. Super action in terms of consolidations.
We said the other day that the SOX would be the key because it made a breakout, gave it up, tried again and gave that breakout up as well. On Tuesday, it thundered higher. The semiconductors were definitely in charge after the TXN mid-quarter update. Very nice, strong moves by a number of key players. The chip equipment stocks are not as strong, still struggling after Intel indicated it was lowering its cap-ex spending. There is some lag in the SOX thanks those equipment stocks, but even if it is not 100% in sync it is moving well. There is also some love being spread around the chips now; we even heard tonight on the after-hours trading shows and other stations that the semiconductors were moving now. Last year was it that we saw semiconductors start to set up, and early this year they were moving up ahead of everything else. We have been playing the semiconductors ever since. Now more are coming on board and pushing the chips to a new breakout. We will see if this breakout can hold, and with everyone coming on board they can push it higher. At the same time that is a warning: when everyone starts saying it is the way to go, you have to start looking for the exit just in case it becomes too crowded of a trade and everyone tries to rush for the door later. I still think semiconductors have quite a way to go because this was a very solid breakout from the SOX.
LEADERSHIP. Technology, chips, and commodities (steel, copper, and coal) performed well. Agriculture started to move back up. Retail was even moving higher; Coach moved well for us and we see some select names in retail perform well despite the up and down Same Store Sales. Financials continue to look good in their patterns, they just have not pulled the trigger on the break. That is what we need to see to try to get SP500 to make its breakout as well. All in all the market continues to show very good leadership with some early leaders that consolidated now breaking higher again. As you can tell, we really like the action that we are seeing even with the Supreme Court ruling that may shake things up a bit.
SP futures are down somewhat though not heavily following the ruling. There is a market concern if the United States is not going to enforce secure debt. It opens a Pandora's Box in many different areas from debt to stocks. Up to this point I have not mentioned what is keeping the bid under the market, but it is time: liquidity. I have harped on this for the last three weeks and have not said much about it the last few days because I think everyone got tired of me talking about it. It is still there and is still coming into the market and it is keeping the bid alive. That is why we are seeing SP500 not give back any of its gains. The financials stocks have not broken out, but they have not broken down either. They are consolidating as the bid remains under the market as a whole. Again, if they get the trigger they need, then they will break higher. Perhaps that will come from the TARP release. It did not do the trick Tuesday, but sometimes these have a bit of a delayed effect. In any event, we like the action that we saw and we were buyers again today as a result of that.
THE ECONOMY
Wholesale inventories starting to show the glass is half full.
A lot of the economic news on the day is now overshadowed by what the Supreme Court ruled tonight, but there are still some important elements in the economy to consider. Wholesale inventories came out down 1.4% versus the -1.2% expected. This is one of those glass half full, glass half empty indicators. You can look at it either way you want to, but an accurate read depends on where the economy is. It is like when you see a doji on the candlestick chart - it depends on where it shows up in the price pattern as to what it means. Right now the economy is obviously putrid and what it needs is a kick in the pants to get going. When we see the economy in trouble and struggling and needing a turnaround, it is good to see inventories fall. -1.4% is worse than what was expected, and there was a downside revision on top of that. That is good - things were worse, inventories are falling, maybe production rises in the future to fill the void.
At the same time, sales fell only .4%. I hate to say it only fell a little bit, but that is a positive because they have been declining at a 2.4% to 3.5% rate over the last several months. There was a little aberration here three months ago where they fell just 0.2%, so what we are seeing now is a bit of improvement in the sales; they are not falling as rapidly. I know you are going to say you have heard me rail on about it not meaning a lot that things are not falling fast, but I want to be a bit more positive tonight. So, sales are playing out, inventories are still falling, and what ultimately happens is you get a turnaround in manufacturing when the economy starts to turn to fill orders.
The problem that we have is there has to be a reason to produce something. If the economy is still poor, manufacturers are not going to ramp up a bunch of inventory. Just like a business will not go out and buy a bunch of new equipment if it will not make any money off of that equipment. What has to happen is what we talked about Monday: You have to have incentives to spend money when there are no incentives to spend money. What that means is you have to have some reason to go out and spend on equipment or invest in your business. That is where the tax credits come in. If you get a tax credit, you will spend the money because it is better to spend it than send it to the government and get nothing. Credits create demand where there was none, and that helps further reduces inventories because companies are buying equipment and things they need for their business that they can have for years and help them improve their technology, make them more efficient producers and thus better able to compete with foreign entities. Thus they improve their business and at the same time lower the overall amount of goods in the US which eventually spurs a manufacturing round.
The economy is a long way from that point, and we are not going to get there anytime soon unless we take serious steps in getting good citizens and businesses to invest back in the US. Maybe we are going to see some of that this next week for the Obama Administration. I am not too hopeful because this administration tends to have a more demand-side perspective than a supply-side perspective. History is not too kind to demand-side incentives as was the case in the Great Depression and the 1970's, the two prior economic downturns in the league of this one where demand-side incentives failed to produce anything but prolonged misery. As I have said before, we have to go through this learning curve every 25 years or so where we forget what worked in the past and have a new generation who think it sounds right that if you spur demand, you spur economic activity. Then we find out that it does not really work, it only causes inflation and unemployment to rise, and then we have to come back and actually spur investment in the United States in order to get the economy moving. That indicates it will ultimately work out, but how much suffering must we endure to get there? Unnecessary suffering at that.
THE MARKET
MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX: 28.27; -1.5
VXN: 29.69; -1.49
VXO: 26.74; -1.47
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.86; -0.08
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 42.5%. Bulls continue their steady climb, trotting higher as the market holds its gains. Up from 40.9% where it has hung around for three weeks. Steady move up from 36.0% just over a month back. Moving in on the 43.2% hit mid-April before anticipation of stress tests and SOX' issues. Over the 35% threshold, below which is considered bullish, but this is not a bearish indication yet. Has to get up to the 60% to 65% level to be bearish. Dramatic rise from 21.3% in November 2008, the bottom on this leg. This last leg down showed us the largest single week drop we have ever seen, falling from 33.7% to 25.3%. Hit 40.7% on the high during the rally off the July 2008 lows. 30.9% was the March low. In March the indicator did its job with the dive below 35% and the crossover with the bears. A move into the lower 40's is a decline of significance. A move to 35% is a bullish indicator. This is smashing that. For reference it bottomed in the summer 2006, the last major round of selling ahead of this 2007 top, near 36%, and 35% is considered bullish.
Bears: 25.3%. Bears are becoming rare. Down from 28.4% last week and 33% four weeks back. Well off the 37.2% and the 37.1% in mid-April as the rally continued higher. As with bulls, below the 35% threshold considered bullish though not at bearish levels. Now far from off the high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: +17.73 points (+0.96%) to close at 1860.13
Volume: 2.1B (+8.52%). Below average but stronger volume as NASDAQ rallied back off of the Monday dip. That keeps the good price/volume action in place for the index though it is at a lower level than early June when the breakout started. As noted, volume cannot crescendo every session.
Up Volume: 1.678B (+857.033M)
Down Volume: 463.963M (-607.243M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.53 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.57 to 1
New Highs: 51 (+11)
New Lows: 9 (+2)
NASDAQ is showing leadership. AAPL's developer's conference is ongoing but the news was less than spectacular and AAPL is not doing anything in response. That in itself is almost a positive given the big run into the event. Even with AAPL not doing anything, NASDAQ is doing just fine. The chips are surging, Software is looking better, biotech is trying to come around (though every time it takes a step forward it takes a step back; at some point it has to get some money). The retailers on NASDAQ are starting to come around as well. AMZN has been doing well and EBAY has formed up a nice little pattern. So we see that it is not just technology on NASDAQ, but money is spreading out through all of the 4-letter stocks and that has been driving NASDAQ higher. That is why it is again a clear leader. It broke out and it is continuing its leadership role, moving on toward that October gapdown point. The move is slowing some right now; the volume is a little bit lighter this week. It was up on Tuesday, but it is still back below average. This week NASDAQ momentum may be slowing a bit, but there is nothing unusual about that. You cannot keep ramping up volume higher and higher every session. You have to have moments were it pulls back, and that is what happened on Monday on that test, and then it started back up Tuesday on the gain. Not bad.
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: +3.29 points (+0.35%) to close at 942.43
NYSE Volume: 1.06B (-1.57%). Very low, below average volume as SP500 and friends continue moving laterally in a very tight range.
Up Volume: 590.288M (+137.417M)
Down Volume: 430.693M (-178.649M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.63 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.76 to 1
New Highs: 28 (+10)
New Lows: 48 (+2)
I sound like I am beating a dead horse, but this is a good consolidation. People get nervous when an index moves laterally and looks to be losing momentum. People got nervous in March of 2002 after the market's rally when it sold back but it showed great price-volume action and leadership continued to build good bases. Thus we knew a new breakout was likely. This is nowhere near that severe, but it is same principle. We have a nice consolidation, we have leaders still setting up nice bases and that is very positive for the SP500. It is simply refusing to back off even though it is bunched up against that next resistance. We may get a shakeout before it makes the move, i.e. comes back for a couple of sessions and convinces many that it is selling off. The near term easy money will sell out of the market, then after that shakeout, (since it is already consolidated) it is free to move back up. We may see that, so do not be surprised or dismayed if we see a little downside feint after this nice, tight consolidation.
Again, why are we positive about this? Again, I will say the 'L' word: Liquidity. It is all of the money that the central banks have put into the markets over the world. It is the driving force behind this entire move. It is not the economy improving driving this. We see commodities going up, we see gold going up, and we see interest rates rising because of inflation. There might be some economic improvement in the mix causing part of the rise (from depression fears to just ordinary recession and because China is doing better, hoarding materials and oil as it likes to do), but it is not roaring as it was and driving shortages.
Most of what is putting the bid under the market is that liquidity. Until that changes, we see that as being the primary driver and it keeps a bid under stocks. Again, SP500 is going to need the financial stocks to make a breakout. They formed up well over the past 5 weeks. They are not gangbuster patterns but they are solid consolidations that are narrowing, tightening, and doing so on low volume. That is what you like to see - that sets is stage for a breakout. They may breakout or they may not - they may break down.
Coming out from under the TARP may be the catalyst that gives them the breakout move. The irony of this is that the government is being quiet agreeable to letting the financial stocks out from under the TARP given the Freedom of Information Act request that turned up the document relating to the meetings held between Treasury, the Fed, and the banks last fall. The handwritten document that emerged that no one knew about showing that Treasury forced the banks to take the money and join the program, and if they refused, it said their regulator would find them deficient in the ability to continue business without having an injection of these TARP funds. So it was a case of "you are going to do it or else... You are going to do it." After that document came out there was not a lot of coverage of it or a lot of fanfare about what it meant, but basically it took the hand away from the government for keeping the major financial institutions under government control. They have to let them out because they extorted the financial institutions to take this money - Financial institutions that were perfectly healthy were forced to take this money, so they backed off.
What is concerning after the Supreme Court ruling today is whether or not the administration may be emboldened again and think the Supreme Court is not going the stand up for contract law and the rights of individual companies to conduct their lawful business without government interference. It is a concern for us here in the United States and you can bet it is a concern for our investors such as the Chinese, the Japanese, and many other countries around the world who we ask on a daily basis to buy our government bonds. At some point they will ask the question, "At what point are government bonds not going to be fully backed by the United States?" It seems preposterous that that would ever be the case. Yet until 6 o'clock central time today, it seemed preposterous that the Supreme Court of the United States - that is still considered a more conservative Supreme Court - would say that for political expediency they are going to allow the selling of assets and crush the secure debt holders whom we have held with high regard by virtue of their contracts for over 200 years.
But I digress. We are still looking for a breakout from SP500. Until this news demonstrates that it is going to undermine the move or undermine the bid under stocks in general - thanks to the liquidity - we remain bullish based on this action that we saw today. Again, the Supreme Court ruling is important, but the question is whether or not it overrides the liquidity in the world today. Near term, I do not think it will; I'm not seeing that after hours. We will have to wait and see how that plays out as it is an important fact and something that will not be ignored down the road, but until it changes, we are going to play what we see, and that is the liquidity and inflation play.
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
DJ30
Flat lining at 8750 on low volume setting up a move just as is SP500.
Stats: -1.43 points (-0.02%) to close at 8763.06
Volume: 187M shares Tuesday versus 189M shares Monday. Another low, low volume session during the consolidation.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
WEDNESDAY
We are still waiting for that breakout from SP500. It may give us a shakeout as noted, i.e. were it dips down and looks like it is going to fall out of its consolidation, but then bounces back. We will be watching for that but we also watch how the leaders react.
Today we saw great moves from very good stocks. We saw agriculture coming up after some backfilling, and metals and chips - they are already out front leading the way for the rest of the market. We saw early leaders take charge and start to move higher and so we were buyers on Tuesday. There are still very good stocks out there in position to move higher, stocks that are not extended yet and have good patterns. We are going to continue to look at those and buy them when they indicate they are ready and as long as the overall market holds up.
We have many positions right now, but this is a time that the market has been telling you to buy. When it tells you to buy, you do so. What you notice we have been doing is buying more positions on stocks that we already own. We love to put money into a winner when the stock shows us it is ready to move again. At the same time, new leadership is coming up and they warrant money as they make breaks higher and start their runs, and at the start of a run the moves tend to be larger.
We have other stocks on the report that are not showing the same action or life as other areas getting the money. Some of them are still in good patterns and we will be seeing how they perform over the next day or two, particularly if the rest of the market moves up and they do not, or they do not move up with a lot of snap. We will looking at closing some of those and freeing up some money for other areas and other stocks that look to be ready to move or simply look to give us more bang for the buck over the near term.
Very important sectors are moving higher. Technology and chips are leading, commodities are back in the game, moving up, leading ahead of the rest of the market. We are seeing other important areas such as retail setting up. Not just any retail, but big names such as AMZN and EBAY. With this happening, thanks to the liquidity coming into the market, we are going to get good plays on good names and that is what we want to look for. Then when we get big surges higher were stocks put together two, three, or four big days in a row, then we can bank some gain. We take profits after a strong initial surge, then we can let the stocks test and then do what they are doing now, i.e. breaking higher again. If we are a little patient, we can bank some great gain and then we can go on and not worry about them as long as they are in the trend, letting them work for us. This is where we start getting not just 2:1 returns but 3:1 and 4:1 returns on our options and 20-, 30-, 40% gains on our stock positions. Hard to be unhappy about that even with the Supreme Court making the decision that it did today. Basically we are still in a good mood about what we saw in the market and will keep looking for more opportunities to play this liquidity-driven move. I am Jon Johnson; you have a great evening and good investing to you.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1860.13
Resistance:
1897 is the October post gap intraday high.
1947 is the October gap down point
1984 from late September
2099 is the mid-September low
2169 is the March 2008 double bottom low
Support:
The 10 day EMA at 1818
1780 is the November 2008 peak
1773 is the May peak
1770 is the mid-October interim peak
The 50 day EMA at 1704
The 200 day SMA at 1687
1673 is the prior April peak
1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak
1664 is the May 2008 low
1661 is the April 2009 prior peak
The January closing peak at 1653 (intraday)
1623 is the early April peak
1620 from the early 2001 low
1603 is the December peak
1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made
1587 is the March 2009 high is getting put to bed again
1569 is the late January 2009 peak
1542 is the early October 2008 low
1536 is the late November 2008 peak
1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low
1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.
1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low
S&P 500: Closed at 942.43
Resistance:
944 is the January 2009 high
1000
1050
Support:
935 is the January closing high
The 10 day EMA at 931
930 is the May peak
919 is the early December peak
The 200 day SMA at 917
899 is the early October closing low
896 is the late November 2008 peak
888.70 is the April intraday high.
The 50 day EMA at 886
882 is the early May low
878 is the late January 2009 peak
The prior April peak at 876
866 is the second October 2008 low
857 is the December consolidation low; cracking but not broken
853 is the July 2002 low
848 is the October 2008 closing low
846 is the April peak
842 is the early April peak
839 is the early October 2008 low
833 is the March 2009 peak
The 90 day SMA at 830
818 is the early November 2008 low
815 is the early December 2008 low
805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level
800 is the March 2003 post bottom low
Dow: Closed at 8763.06
Resistance:
8829 is the late November 2008 peak
8934 is the December closing high
8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation
9088 is the January 2009 peak
9387 is the mid-October peak
9625 is the October closing high
Support:
The 10 day EMA at 8661
8626 from December 2002
8588 is the May high
8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low
8451 is the early October closing low
8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation
8375 is the late January 2009 interim peak
8315 is the February 2009 peak
8307 is the April 2009 intraday high
The 50 day EMA at 8294
8221 is the May 2008 low
8197 was the second October 2008 low
8191 is the prior April peak
8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.
8141 is the early December low
The early April intraday peak at 8113
The early April peak at 8076
7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.
7932 is the March 2009 peak
7909 is the early January low
7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.
7867 is the early February low
7702 is the July 2002 low
7694 is the February intraday low
7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
June 9 - Tuesday
April Wholesale Inventories (10:00): -1.4% actual versus -1.2% expected, -1.8% prior (revised from -1.6%).
June 10 - Wednesday
April Trade Balance (8:30): -$29.0B expected, -$27.6B prior
Crude Oil Inventories, 06/05 (10:30): -2.87M prior
Treasury Budget, May (14:00): -$181.0B expected
June 11 - Thursday
May Retail Sales, May (8:30): 0.5% expected, -0.4% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, May (8:30): 0.2% expected, -0.5% prior
Initial Jobless Claims, 06/06 (8:30): 625K expected, 621K prior
Business Inventories, April (10:00): -1.0% expected, -1.0% prior
June 12 - Friday
May Export Prices ex-aq. (8:30): -0.3% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, May (8:30): -0.7% prior
Michigan Sentiment-Preliminary, Jun (9:55): 69.5 expected
End part 1 of 3
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