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world stock market, us stock market
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6/11/09 Investment House Alerts
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IH Alert Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit alerts: AKS; MPWR; PCU; SLB
Buy alerts: DRI; IDXX; ISRG; TTEK
Trailing stops: AMSC; AMX; V
Stop alerts: CCK; JPM; SPIL
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VIDEO MARKET SUMMARY
We are offering a video market summary featuring Jon Johnson talking about the market, the economy, and what is next for investors. We hope you enjoy this added feature to your subscription! We still include the normal Market Summary format so you have both a video to listen to while commuting or multitasking as well as the written report for review.
TO VIEW THE VIDEO MARKET SUMMARY CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/marketsummary.wmv
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SUMMARY:
- Good setup, SP500 breaks out, but it cannot hold it.
- NASDAQ shows some churn after a good move.
- SP500 needs the financials to step up.
- Jobless claims better and worse. Seen this story before.
- Retail sales improve nicely, revisions solid, but gasoline is the driver.
- Net worth dives, US debt swallows all household wealth.
- A bit of character change alters the breakout/breakdown probabilities.
Had a good look to open but an uninspired closed gives up a potentially important move.
Thursday showed the kind of set up we really like to see. In the morning, jobless claims came out along with retail sales. They were both quite palatable to the market. Jobless claims fell to 601K versus the 615K expected. That was down from an upwardly revised 625K the prior week. Continuing claims spiked back up to 6.81M. Last week we made a somewhat big deal out of the fact that continuing claims fell for the first time in 20 weeks. They were revised back up so there was really no drop at all. Once again, the jobless report was somewhat mixed but showing some improvement on the front ends. Still we are dealing with 600K weekly losses and that is still much too high to show any kind of improvement in consumer outlook.
Retail sales did show some positives in the consumer outlook though. Overall, the number came in inline at + 0.5%. The prior month was revised to a fall of just 0.2%. That was better than the originally reported -0.4%. Take out autos and retail sales were still up 0.5% - much better than the 0.2% gain expected. Similarly, the prior month was revised down to just 0.2% versus the 0.005% decline previously reported. Some positive developments in retail sales, but we know that gasoline played a role because prices have hit an eight-month high and therefore a lot of what we are seeing in increased sales is just an increase in the cost of gasoline. Nonetheless, there were some decent parts to the report and the market responded somewhat favorably before the open.
This set up the way we like to see a market set up at the open. There was some decent news out; it did not shoot the market higher but the reaction was solid. No big rush higher, no drop, just steady into the open. That was a great setup given that the market - particularly the SP500 - is at a point where it is in a tight lateral move and it is going to make a pretty good break one way or the other. With this news, the market opened higher and SP500 moved up rather nicely. It made it over 944 (the January high) early on, but it came back and sold off. All of the indices came back and sold into the mid-morning hour, which is rather typical. The mid-morning period often is a fulcrum for the rest of the session as it sets up the move into early afternoon. Stocks rebounded nicely moving to session highs after lunch. SP500 was nicely over 944 moving up to 956 on the high. It looked pretty good for a breakout over that level. Volume was ruining a little bit higher - it was not surging, but it was improving as it did on Wednesday. Things looked relatively good, the reason being after the selloff into mid-morning, the 30 year bond auction came out and was much better received than Wednesday's 10 year action where interest rates moved higher and higher in order to fill the auction. That did not happen on Thursday and therefore bond yields moved lower. Indeed, the 10 year fell to 3.86% on the close, which was much better than the 4% hit in the pre-market hours. The 2 year closed at 1.32%, roughly in line but down for from the 1.37% shown in the pre-market session.
The dollar was lower. It suffered again, really struggling. It moved back to 1.4106 Euros on the close. It was down below 1.40 on the Wednesday close - a significant move seen in the green back. Gold stayed flat, right around $956. Gold is still closing in on 1K even though it is pausing somewhat right now the past week. The lowered dollar once again spurred oil prices higher. Oil closed at $72.35, up a $1.02 per barrel. That has pushed gasoline prices to an eight-month high and, as we saw in the retail sales, has helped spike them to the highest close since January.
What started out to be a good session (from the perspective of how the pre-market started) built into a rise with a break in SP500 over 944, then fell apart in the last hour. What looked to be a solid close over 944 turned into a close right at 944. A new high on the close for the SP no doubt, but not the breakout that we wanted to see; indeed, what we saw was a reversal. We saw a very uninspired close that put the indices right back to where they started the session and kept SP500 in what is longer than a week-long lateral consolidation. There were still great moves by the commodities stocks and energy stocks because the dollar is softer, oil is higher, and with the inflation worries that is pushing those stocks higher. We were able to take some nice gain off the table with respect to some of those stocks that surged again. Overall, stocks came back after hitting that intraday high. It left us less sanguine about the prospects for a good breakout from this consolidation. As we said on Wednesday night, when an index forms this kind of tight lateral pattern, it is going to break and it usually breaks fairly sharply. This failed breakout attempt was not a massive reversal at all, it was just a failed breakout for a minute on slightly higher volume. That shows us that the buyers were not able to push. The sellers came back in and took the indices back down. Not heavy selling, but a lot of profit taking came in and it pushed a lot of the leading sectors, such as semiconductors, back down to flat. From here we look at it as a 50/50 chance whether the SP500 breaks higher from this consolidation or moves down for a deeper test. We were talking about a shakeout in the SP500 and that is what we might see after this attempt to move through 944 failed. Often that will turn around and you will see some backfilling down to the bottom of the range. If it just does that on low volume, no problem. That is just a typical shakeout that will get some people out of the market and then it will reverse and breakout. If leadership hold up, then that is our cue that SP500 will likely hold after a shakeout and move back up. What we need to do is watch what the volume does with the indices and watch what the leadership does with respect to near support.
TECHNICAL
INTRADAY.
The market started flat, it rallied, but then it came back and gave up a lot of the gains. Nonetheless, it held midmorning and moved back up into the early afternoon - very positive action. As we said, SP500 hit 956 on the high while NASDAQ hit a new post-March high as well, though it did not make serious progress toward its next resistance at the October gap down point. Then they reversed and came back to flat while still holding gains on the session, but giving most of them up and showing a little bit of churn.
INTERNALS.
The advance/decline line was decent. 1.8:1 on NASDAQ, 1.8:1 on NYSE. They were obviously better during the session -3:1 readings at one point on the NYSE - but with the late fade they could not hold that. What caught our interest was NASDAQ volume which moved back above average to over 2.4B shares. When NASDAQ reached up just to a new post-March high and then reversed on higher volume, that shows some churn. It did not get any help from the semiconductors which were down on the session, so there was some selling ongoing in NASDAQ. It is just churn at this point, not distribution, so it is something to watch out for down the road. NYSE volume was up as well. It did not move back over average or even approach average really, but nonetheless it was higher as the SP500 moved up and then turned around and could not hold the move. Indeed, the small caps gave back all of their gain and closed flat. So there was some pushback as the stocks tried to move into this new breakout area for SP500 on the close. Why did not it make it? We will talk about this more, but the financials did not participate. Once again, they were out of the picture.
CHARTS.
We had a situation where NASDAQ tried to continue higher and it did reach that new post-March high, but it was unable to make it stick. Indeed it turned around and gave up a substantial chunk of it is gain. It hit 1880 on the high and closed at 1862, so it gave up twice as much as it gained on the session. With some higher volume, that shows a little bit of churn. Of course AAPL and some of the large cap techs have had good runs so they are not really contributing right now. AAPL is pulling back and actually it has a very good looking pullback. It has not tanked after the developers conference. Maybe there is disappointment there, or some less-than-inspiring news, but it is holding up quiet well. So while there is some give-back, it is not a collapse at all. I do not want to give the impression that there has been any kind of collapse or serious character change on the indices. It is just the action of trying to break higher by SP500 and unable to hold the move with a little bit higher volume - this suggests that the buyers are not as strong as they were. The liquidity is not ready to move in right now, so we just have to be ready in case the indices decide to test back some more versus make the break higher out of this consolidation range.
LEADERSHIP.
The chip stocks were down overall on the day, but they were mixed. We had some very good moves, some not so great moves. They still have great patterns, they were just down on the session as a group. They are still holding up, still fine, but something to watch. There was the same strength in the commodities. Steel was impressive once more and we took some gain there. Copper was impressive as well. Energy stocks moved up, though not across the board. Oil services stocks moved well along with natural gas stocks. As with the chips, it is not 100% across the board running higher, but they are still showing a lot of strength.
Where this leaves us.
There are some cracks as we noted on Wednesday showing up. Consumer discretionary is having issues; the restaurant stocks are in trouble, some of the mid-level retailers' patterns did look good, but they struggling quite suddenly. We had an upside session developing, yet there were stocks not advancing for us- the "on the bubble" stocks - that have not been able to make substantial moves. They are stuck in a rut. Maybe they are just consolidating and are going to make the break higher if SP500 makes the breakout, but with the reversal on the day, we did not really want to wait around.
Again it was not a major reversal, just more selling in the market than there has been recently. The money did not come back and push the market up at the session end. So we took what we call the bubble stocks off the table - some of them with trailing stops and a couple of them with just stops because we did not want to get caught in the event that there is going to be more of the shakeout. We are playing it basically safe and packing up some positions that were not doing much for us so we will have some cash on the sidelines in case the market turns down and we want to play some downside positions - or if it makes the breakout and we want to get in stocks that are set up better and in position to run better for us. Again, leadership still remains strong. There are some cracks but overall the problems are limited.
Financials just are not playing ball. There are still a lot of issues swirling, such as on Thursday there was the hearing with respect to the Bank of America/Merrill Lynch takeover about who knew what and when they knew it. It was the typical hearing that we see on Capitol Hill where congressmen with one certain agenda to put forth went and asked questions with respect to that agenda, while others who wanted to find out exactly what happened asked questions that would try to elicit facts. Financials simply do not have backing as investors do not want to stick their necks out with financials. Financials are the key to whether SP500 makes the break higher or makes the break lower, and they have been consolidating just as SP500. They could break down just as easily as they could break to the upside, and if the latter they will need a trigger. If they do not get it, there could be that further shakeout that we have been talking about in the indices that brings SP500 down to test the next support level. That as we know is not that far down at 925 - it steps pretty much in 25-point increments: 925, 900ish, then 875 - any of those would be fine tests. Three weeks to a month ago we were looking for one of these deeper tests by the SP500, but it never showed up. SP500 showed great tenacity in holding its gains and forming this consolidation.
The only thing that has changed between Wednesday and today is that there was an attempt to break higher that failed. The sellers did not let the market come back up. More accurately, the buyers did not come in late and push stocks back up. That is a little bit of a change of character - we have seen it over this past week, one other example of that. So we want to be cautious here and that is why we are watching out for our positions. We are still going to look for leadership plays that are in great shape to move higher because they are still out there. We still see some that we like a lot and we will look at those come even on Friday.
THE ECONOMY
Mortgage rates spike higher, following bond yields.
The 30 year mortgage in one week rose to 5.59% from 5.29%. Not surprising given the spike in interest rates. Problem is this makes houses less affordable. That has led to talk on Capitol Hill of doubling the first-time buyer credit in order to allow people to get into houses that the rising interest rates are slamming the door on. As we all know, as interest rates rise you cannot afford as much house - or maybe you cannot afford any house with those higher rates, PARTICULARLY when wages, both real and nominal, are falling. Mortgage rates are rising at the entirely wrong time, i.e. when we desperately need the housing market to recover. It is recovering in some areas where there were high instances of foreclosures and distress sales. With interest rates climbing, however, the market is going to get stagnate once more. Refinancing has slowed to a trickle and we are going to be looking at a lot of distress foreclosure sales as still the primary type of sale given the rising rates.
Now the 30 year bond auction went well today and bonds rallied some bringing those yields down. That may impact the mortgage rates for next week, but they have still shown a tremendous jump over just a week-to-week. The reduction in the 10 year is not matching the spike in mortgage rates. There may be some softening, but it is likely not to take back the gains from just this past week in mortgage rates.
Household net worth thumps lower as US mortgages its entire 'book value.'
The Fed announced more information about the health of the consumer. Every quarter we get a read of the total net worth of households in the United States. Over Q1 net worth fell $1.33T. That is a significant amount of course - it is hard to fathom a trillion dollars. It is hard to fathom our debt at $1.8T but of course that is just a short term deficit. The real problem we have, the REAL deficit we have is the entitlement spending. I heard a figure today that while we have roughly $2T of relatively short term debt, our entitlements - in other words promises to pay - are in the range of $68T. That is pretty much the entire net worth of the aggregate households in the United States. We have promised to pay basically everything that we own. We have mortgaged everything we own on Social Security and Medicare and it is going to get worse because now we are going to have nationalized healthcare that is going to add - by the Administration's count - $1T.
Of course the administration also said that unemployment rate would not hit over 8.4% and now it is at 9.4%. If we really look at the numbers, we know it is really at 16% given all of the disgruntled workers who have left the hunt for new employment. So we do not really believe the $1T, but the point is we have mortgaged everything we own in the country. That is why it costs more in interest payments to get poor countries to buy our debt to fund all of this massive spending. We have dug a hole that we may not recover from. We have never been this much in debt, and we have never come as close to being as insolvent as we are now; If we liquidated the country, if you could do that, we could barely pay what we owe.
If you were a foreign country looking to put money somewhere, would the US be your first choice? It might - other countries in the world are in serious trouble as well. We see Brazil, China, Russia, even South Korea a few months ago say that they want to divest from dollar assets. They want to put their money elsewhere and that makes sense; you would do it too most likely if you saw the promises to pay equal to the book value of the country. It is only going to get worse, my friends. We are going to be effectively bankrupt - a bankruptcy court would say we are bankrupt if we add on the national health care plan that is being talked about right now. Those are sobering words, but it is the truth and we have to be cognizant of what is going on and why we are paying more for every barrel of oil and every dollar that we have another country come in and borrow from us every day to fund our deficit.
THE MARKET
MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX: 28.11; -0.35
VXN: 29.73; -0.04
VXO: 27.16; -0.01
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.77; -0.09
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 42.5%. Bulls continue their steady climb, trotting higher as the market holds its gains. Up from 40.9% where it has hung around for three weeks. Steady move up from 36.0% just over a month back. Moving in on the 43.2% hit mid-April before anticipation of stress tests and SOX' issues. Over the 35% threshold, below which is considered bullish, but this is not a bearish indication yet. Has to get up to the 60% to 65% level to be bearish. Dramatic rise from 21.3% in November 2008, the bottom on this leg. This last leg down showed us the largest single week drop we have ever seen, falling from 33.7% to 25.3%. Hit 40.7% on the high during the rally off the July 2008 lows. 30.9% was the March low. In March the indicator did its job with the dive below 35% and the crossover with the bears. A move into the lower 40's is a decline of significance. A move to 35% is a bullish indicator. This is smashing that. For reference it bottomed in the summer 2006, the last major round of selling ahead of this 2007 top, near 36%, and 35% is considered bullish.
Bears: 25.3%. Bears are becoming rare. Down from 28.4% last week and 33% four weeks back. Well off the 37.2% and the 37.1% in mid-April as the rally continued higher. As with bulls, below the 35% threshold considered bullish though not at bearish levels. Now far from off the high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: +9.29 points (+0.5%) to close at 1862.37
Volume: 2.404B (+4.49%). Back above average when NASDAQ posted a gain, but also gave up two-thirds of its session gains. Some churn after a two week upside move following the breakout over the November peak. Not devastating but something to watch, particularly given the chips were struggling some yetagain.
Up Volume: 1.483B (+415.279M)
Down Volume: 843.482M (-444.447M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.8 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.55 to 1
New Highs: 51 (+3)
New Lows: 7 (-2)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ did not make it to the October gap down point near 1900. It rallied to 1880 on the high - about 16 points away from the nearest resistance point. It is not there and it may not make it as NASDAQ is showing signs of tiring on this move. It rallied higher, it gave up 2/3 of the gain, and it did so on rising above average volume. NASDAQ led the move higher and it is showing signs it is a bit tired, i.e. some churn. Totally normal. It does not indicate a breakdown. What it does us is that for is short term we might be in for some selling in technology. If technology sells, that will pressure SP500 because technology has been one of the key leaders on this move.
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
The SOX was down 1.22%. It broke out again Tuesday, but it peeled back some today. It is still holding its breakout, but it is going to be key to the market with respect to whether it holds this move or not. If it does not hold this latest breakout, then it is pretty much baked into the market that there will be a pullback. Chips have been a very important component of the move off the March lows. They are showing great strength but they are also a bit volatile now. We have positions screaming higher and we have other ones that pulled back today. Still holding their trends but still not clearly burying the mid-October peak. As we know, volatility can be a sign of coming change. We are watching the SOX very closely and watching how NASDAQ tests and what the volume is as it makes its test. It is still over it is November peaks, and thus still in solid position.
SP500/NYSE
Stats: +5.74 points (+0.61%) to close at 944.89
NYSE Volume: 1.223B (+0.23%). Modestly higher, matching Wednesday and still what you would consider consolidation volume as it comes in well below average.
Up Volume: 776.217M (+269.747M)
Down Volume: 405.821M (-291.342M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.8 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.24 to 1
New Highs: 41 (+24)
New Lows: 56 (+18)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP500 again rallied up over 944 over the January intraday high, came right back down to close at that level. A new closing high, yes, but it did not make the breakout stick. So we have the issue of SP500 trying to make the break higher but failing. We have said before that failures on initial attempted breaks through resistance are not bad. But in this instance SP500 has moved up and is bumping along that resistance for two weeks now. It has not come up, backed off, and then charged back up that is characteristic of a breakout after an initial failure. This time it is trying to make the move through without giving up gains. Being stingy with gains is a positive for the upside. If the move takes too long to develop and if we start seeing the erosion in some of the sectors and the unwillingness of the financials to join in and break to the upside, however, then the odds SP500 is going to test back further grow.
We said that market break higher sharply from these types of consolidations or they break lower sharply from these types of consolidations. There is going to be a break fairly soon. Today's action may be a precursor to that because there was that attempt that was pushed back. It is not always a positive for the near term, which is why we were selling some positions that were on the bubble. We just do what the market tells us and we are just being cautious here by pairing some positions, raising some cash, and looking at what opportunities present themselves.
Looks like the commodities are still going to be hot. A lot of people are advising to sell, due to the sharp gains. Some of them have risen dramatically and that is why we were today taking gain and indeed have been taking gain on the runs higher. It does not mean they will break down - there some are still in great position to move higher yet. There is money around the individual sectors inside of energy, metals, and industrials. While the rest of the market may be pulling back some, these can still see upside as the money that remains in the market due to the inflation trade - and there is still liquidity out there pushing in - can easily push these higher as the rest of the stock market tests back. Nonetheless, we play it safe and we take some interim gains off the table as they make good moves. It is always nice to have that money in the bank when things get a little bit dicey.
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
DJ30
Same action as SP500 with the break to a new post-March high but then giving it up and closing inside the range. Volume a bit higher though still below average. Still in the pattern, just a bit of character change as sellers came in and pushed it back and buyers did not have the last word.
Stats: +31.9 points (+0.37%) to close at 8770.92
Volume: 250M shares Thursday versus 220M shares Wednesday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
FRIDAY
Michigan Sentiment is out, along with import and export prices. Michigan Sentiment will be closely watched because everyone wants to know how the consumer feels. The idea is if the consumer feels good he will buy, if not, he or she will not buy. Often it does not parallel reality, but it is a sexy report. Confidence has been better of late. People feel that we are not going into the Great Depression and they feel relieved because, hey, it is just the worst recession in history other than the Great Depression. Wow, we are lucky. That is kind of the situation we are dealing with. We looked into the abyss, panicked, millions of people were laid off, and now we have pulled back and everyone feels better. The patient is no longer in a coma, just paralyzed.
As a result the market has re-priced back from depression. The rebound has put it at a serious testing point. SP500 has risen to the January peak and it is unable to move higher for now and we are getting some signs of a little bit of selling coming into the market -- just some signs, and we have seen these before on this move. We have seen it a few times and it suckered us in - hey it looks like we are going to sell, we better get on the other side of the trade - only to see the liquidity push things higher. Cannot become too impatient and guess the trend will change. We had some good positions and they started to fall, but the liquidity would not let the market really test.
That does not keep us from looking. It does a body good to look, right? Retail discretionary sector is cracking some. We will look for other situations where we can play the downside if things break, but right now outside of that consumer area the sectors still look pretty solid. We want to be ready but it takes time to develop.
While we see if any more downside sets up we are also going to keep looking at the upside sectors that work - commodities, energy, industrials, and even your semiconductors and techs (software is starting to move as well). You have to be ready to go whichever way the market goes, and from here SP500 can break up or down. We were very positive about the break higher, but the move is stretching out and there are cracks developing in some sectors as noted above. It is the smart thing to do because the market will do what it wants to do, not what we want it to do or think it should do. We thus had some downside plays ready last night and that surprised some of you that they suddenly popped up on the report. The market was showing us that the consumer discretionary was in trouble and if other sectors are showing up in trouble - indeed there is some higher volume selling in some areas of technology - then we will move that way if the financials break lower.
If SP500 is going to go down it will test the 925 at least and likely the 900 level. That is not a collapse. Hardly. We will just have to see what the volume is like and how the leaders hold up during any pullback. That is what you do: read the sign posts that the market gives you, you are ready to move and you say stay on your feet and keep your head about you. When you see a little change like we saw today, you will lighten up on positions as we were doing Wednesday and Thursday. We are still buying good positions in the right sectors that are moving up, and we are getting rid of those that have not been moving well, using an up day to get rid of them.
This is one of those times where there is potential transition in the works. No reason to panic; nothing good comes out of panicking. What you do is stay detached, calm, and collected and if stocks fall, you take gain off the table and you watch for setups to the downside and indeed the upside as well. Why? Because as sure as we are going to get up in the morning, that liquidity will return. Sure there is talk about the G8 removing the liquidity or the stimulus, and there is talk about the Fed raising interest rates. It is not going to happen any time soon, however. Indeed Thursday may have just been a response to this talk that hit midweek when investors finally realized that the Fed could have to raise interest rates. So the market is stalling a little bit as it absorbs that news. It may turn back up pushed by the liquidity and make the breakout. If it does, we will make a bunch of money. If it does not, we banked a bunch of money and we are going to watch our stops on our remaining upside and then make trades to the downside to capture some weakness. We won't abandon the upside either, however, because there is still going to be money pouring into the inflation trades.
Have a great evening. We will see you Friday morning and maybe we will get something out of it. Friday is not our favorite day to buy, but the market is trying to show a little transition and there may be some good set ups here. If they show them to us, we will pick up some shares. If we have some good gains, we will take some off the table. Have a great evening.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1862.37
Resistance:
1897 is the October post gap intraday high.
1947 is the October gap down point
1984 from late September
2099 is the mid-September low
2169 is the March 2008 double bottom low
Support:
The 10 day EMA at 1831
1780 is the November 2008 peak
1773 is the May peak
1770 is the mid-October interim peak
The 50 day EMA at 1715
The 200 day SMA at 1673
1673 is the prior April peak
1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak
1664 is the May 2008 low
1661 is the April 2009 prior peak
The January closing peak at 1653 (intraday)
1623 is the early April peak
1620 from the early 2001 low
1603 is the December peak
1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made
1587 is the March 2009 high is getting put to bed again
1569 is the late January 2009 peak
1542 is the early October 2008 low
1536 is the late November 2008 peak
1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low
1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.
1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low
S&P 500: Closed at 944.89
Resistance:
944 is the January 2009 high
1000
1050
Support:
935 is the January closing high
The 10 day EMA at 935
930 is the May peak
919 is the early December peak
The 200 day SMA at 913
899 is the early October closing low
896 is the late November 2008 peak
The 50 day EMA at 891
888.70 is the April intraday high.
882 is the early May low
878 is the late January 2009 peak
The prior April peak at 876
866 is the second October 2008 low
857 is the December consolidation low; cracking but not broken
853 is the July 2002 low
848 is the October 2008 closing low
846 is the April peak
842 is the early April peak
839 is the early October 2008 low
The 90 day SMA at 838
833 is the March 2009 peak
818 is the early November 2008 low
815 is the early December 2008 low
805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level
800 is the March 2003 post bottom low
Dow: Closed at 8770.92
Resistance:
8829 is the late November 2008 peak
8934 is the December closing high
8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation
9088 is the January 2009 peak
9387 is the mid-October peak
9625 is the October closing high
Support:
The 10 day EMA at 8692
8626 from December 2002
8588 is the May high
8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low
8451 is the early October closing low
8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation
8375 is the late January 2009 interim peak
The 50 day EMA at 8330
8315 is the February 2009 peak
8307 is the April 2009 intraday high
8221 is the May 2008 low
8197 was the second October 2008 low
8191 is the prior April peak
8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.
8141 is the early December low
The early April intraday peak at 8113
The early April peak at 8076
7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.
7932 is the March 2009 peak
7909 is the early January low
7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.
7867 is the early February low
7702 is the July 2002 low
7694 is the February intraday low
7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
June 9 - Tuesday
April Wholesale Inventories (10:00): -1.4% actual versus -1.2% expected, -1.8% prior (revised from -1.6%).
June 10 - Wednesday
April Trade Balance (8:30): -$29.2B actual versus -$29.0B expected, -$28.5B prior (revised from -$27.6B
Crude Oil Inventories, 06/05 (10:30): -4.4B actual, -2.87M prior
Treasury Budget, May (14:00): -$189.7B actual, -$181.0B expected, -$165.9B prior
June 11 - Thursday
May Retail Sales, May (8:30): 0.5% actual versus 0.5% expected, -0.2% prior (revised from -0.4%)
Retail Sales ex-auto, May (8:30): 0.5% actual versus 0.2% expected, -0.2% prior (revised from -0.5%)
Initial Jobless Claims, 06/06 (8:30): 601K actual versus 615K expected, 625K prior (revised from 621K)
Business Inventories, April (10:00): -1.1% actual versus -1.0% expected, -1.3% prior (revised from -1.0%).
June 12 - Friday
May Export Prices ex-aq. (8:30): -0.3% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, May (8:30): -0.7% prior
Michigan Sentiment-Preliminary, Jun (9:55): 69.5 expected
End part 1 of 3
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