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stock share, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/13/2009
APH (Amphenol Corp.--$33.96; -0.50; optionable): Electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aph.html
After Hours: $33.96
EARNINGS: 01/15/2009
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Nice 6 week triangle sporting higher lows over the 50 day EMA (32.11) has formed to consolidate the March to early May run. Tried the breakout Thursday but faded. Friday APH tapped the 18 day EMA (33.39) on the low and rebounded. Looks to be making the final higher low in the pattern before the breakout.
Volume: 798.685K Avg Volume: 2.056M
BUY POINT: $34.55 Volume=2.5M Target=$39.94 Stop=$32.04
POSITION: APH JG - Oct. $35c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aph.html
Play Date: 06/13/2009
ATW (Atwood Oceanics--$27.40; -0.89; optionable): Offshore drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atw.html
After Hours: $27.40
EARNINGS: 05/06/2009
STATUS: Ascending pennant. Another nice 5 week base has formed following the November to April base and breakout into early May. Making a series of higher lows up the near support at the 18 day EMA (26.28). Nice volume Thursday as ATW spiked higher, but ATW gapped lower Friday though it tapped at the 10 day EMA on the low (27.12) and held. Still solid in the pattern and just waiting for the next move higher. When it moves back up and holds into the close on some decent volume it is a buy.
Volume: 1.127M Avg Volume: 1.422M
BUY POINT: $28.34 Volume=1.8M Target=$34.88 Stop=$26.21
POSITION: ATW IE - Sept. $25c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/atw.html
Play Date: 06/13/2009
BLKB (Blackbaud--$15.37; -0.02; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blkb.html
After Hours: $15.37
EARNINGS: 04/30/2009
STATUS: Cup w/handle. BLKB is another stock that has formed a solid short 6 week base consolidating the March to May move. Very nicely formed, using the 50 day EMA (14.20) on the low. Spent last week working laterally in a tight range, testing lower intraday and then snapping back; that is good shakeout action and is classic handle work that weeds out the sellers and sets up the breakout. Time to sit back and wait to see if BLKB can deliver. Software is picking up buyers, trying to step out as a new leader, and just in time.
Volume: 91.474K Avg Volume: 225K
BUY POINT: $15.83 Volume=335K Target=$18.84 Stop=$14.77
POSITION: QDO IC - Sept. $15c (60 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/blkb.html
Play Date: 06/13/2009
HMSY (HMS Holdings--$36.82; -0.48; optionable): Business management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hmsy.html
After Hours: $36.82
EARNINGS: 07/31/2009
STATUS: Ascending pennant. HMSY is back on. One of the early leaders in the recover as it bottomed and rallied WELL BEFORE other stocks. Part of the small cap contingent that led higher early. Made us some money on its last move and has set back up, forming a 5 week base. Made a higher low the past week, holding the March peak and jumping higher Thursday. Faded modestly Friday on low grade, but bounced off the 10 day EMA (36.36) on the low. Looking solid once more and as HMSY rebounds on some volume it is a buy . . . once more.
Volume: 205.497K Avg Volume: 413.912K
BUY POINT: $37.38 Volume=600K Target=$42.95 Stop=$34.82
POSITION: QHT IG - Sept. $35c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hmsy.html
Play Date: 06/13/2009
NOV (National Oilwell--$38.69; -0.52; optionable): Oil and gas equipment, services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nov.html
After Hours: $39.22
EARNINGS: 04/23/2009
STATUS: Pennant. With a name like National Oilwell you have got to be good. NOV bottomed in November and has been in a modest, steady, and relentless uptrend since. Broke higher in late May, clearing an interim 9 week base, rallying to 40 to start June. It is testing this month, but holding the 18 day EMA (37.51) on the low, refusing to give up any ground. Showed some good upside volume spikes on the week and it is setting up for a breakout from this tight pattern. Once this retrenchment in energy is over, NOV is ready to make the break higher.
Volume: 4.786M Avg Volume: 8.477M
BUY POINT: $39.34 Volume=10M Target=$47.65 Stop=$36.59
POSITION: NON HZ - Aug. $37c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nov.html
New Buy Points on Current Positions
Play Date: 06/13/2009
BOOM (Dynamic Materials--$21.10; -0.06; optionable): Industrial metals (cladding)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/boom.html
After Hours: $21.10
EARNINGS: 03/05/2009
STATUS: Flag. Love these little patterns that have set up time and again for stocks as they breakout and make that first test. BOOM jumped higher for us to start June, clearing a short pennant that consolidated the March to May run. Strong break on outstanding volume; lots of buyers wanting in. It tested the past week, coming back to near support at the 10 day EMA (20.89), showing a nice tight doji Friday. That likely indicates the pullback is over. The pullback held the January peak so this is a great place to look for a bounce. Ready to move in as BOOM holds and makes the break higher once more.
Volume: 532.174K Avg Volume: 452.155K
BUY POINT: $21.66 Volume=575K Target=$24.95 Stop=$19.88
POSITION: QCB ID - Sept. $20c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/boom.html
Downside
Play Date: 06/13/2009
GOLD (Randgold Resources--$67.67; -3.26; optionable): Gold mining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gold.html
After Hours: $67.50
EARNINGS: 07/28/2009
STATUS: Double top. GOLD surged impressively from mid-April to early June, almost doubling in that period as it moved straight up without a rest. After that kind of move it needed a test and fell to the 18 day EMA (67.68) the first week of June, something you would expect. Bounced off of that near support but lost its backing, made a lower high, and then gapped lower Friday on rising volume. Managed to hold the 18 day EMA again on the Friday close but there is a gap from the third week of May that it looks like GOLD has a date to fill. Our initial target fills that gap but GOLD could find 60ish rather easily. A move to our initial target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 1.477M Avg Volume: 1.344M
BUY POINT: $67.42 Volume=1.6M Target=$63.02 Stop=$69.72
POSITION: GUD SN - July $70p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gold.html
Play Date: 06/13/2009
MS (Morgan Stanley--$29.70; +0.21; optionable): Brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ms.html
After Hours: $29.67
EARNINGS: 12/17/2008
STATUS: Put. MS has trended upside off the November low though it has had its share of pullbacks, some rather sharp and violent. Pretty steady move from mid-May into early June; not bad. Then MS flopped Wednesday on that bad 10 year bond auction. Volume jumped above average for only the second time in two months. Trying to hold the 18 day EMA (29.37), but it looks as if MS is heading toward the 50 day EMA (27). That is our initial target and lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 15.945M Avg Volume: 46.898M
BUY POINT: $29.53 Volume=55M Target=$27.44 Stop=$30.27
POSITION: MS SH - July $31p (-59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ms.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock share
stock recommendation
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