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stock recommendation, stock option
Begin Part 2 of 2
Weekly Economic Calendar (All times Eastern). The figures are the consensus expectations, not ours.
4-29-02
Personal Income, March (8:30): ): 0.4% actual versus 0.4% expected and 0.6% prior
Personal Spending, March (8:30): 0.4% actual versus 0.4% expected and 0.6% prior
4-30-02
Chicago PMI, April (10:00): 54.7 actual versus 55.50 expected and 55.7 prior
Consumer Confidence, April (10:00): 108.8 actual versus 108.0 expected and 110.2 prior
5-1-02
Auto Sales, April (00:00): 6.0M versus 6.0M prior
Truck Sales, April (00:00): 7.3M versus 7.3M prior
ISM Index, April (10:00): 54.6 versus 55.6
Construction Spending, March (10:00): -0.1% versus 1.1% prior
5-2-02
Initial Claims, 4/27 (8:30): NA versus 421K prior
Factory Orders, March (10:00): 0.7% versus 0.3% prior
5-3-02
Nonfarm Payrolls, April (8:30): 60K versus 58K prior
Unemployment Rate, April (8:30): 5.8% versus 5.7% prior
Hourly Earnings, April (8:30): 0.3% versus 0.3% prior
Average Workweek, April (8:30): 34.3 versus 34.2 prior
ISM Services, April (10:00): 57.5 versus 57.3 prior
TEAM TRADES
CNMD: Medical appliance maker that enjoyed a strong breakout in March and was moving laterally for over two weeks above the 18 day MVA. We noted the doji last night right over the 18 day MVA and the continued positive price/volume action in the lateral consolidation. We liked what we were seeing as this was an example of how a solid stock was holding up well while the rest of the market tanked. That is the strong action we like to see. Today when the market started up CNMD was ready to spring. At 1:30 it shot up on some huge volume spikes, hitting our buy point of 26.05. This is one we were waiting for and we shot out the alert quickly and then turned around and put in a limit order at the ask of 26.09. That was good enough and the stock continued its strong move up to 27 where it ran into intraday resistance in the last hour. Good volume, solid pattern, a good leader.
THE PLAYS:
NEW PLAYS:
LPNT (Lifepoint Hospitals--$42.00; +2.22; optionable): Health care plans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lpnt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. In an 8-month cup with handle base and making the breakout move today on strong volume, though slightly less than we would like to see on such a move (611K; avg. is 450K). Rising price weeks on rising volume outnumber down price weeks on rising volume, showing positive accumulation during the base. A solid breakout in a good base in a good sector.
BUY POINT: Up to 44, but we are looking at 42.50 on continued above average volume in excess of 700K. Target=51. Stop=39.50.
POSITION: Stock and/or August 35c to buy (PUN HG; delta 79; low OI).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/lpnt.html
CAND (Candies, Inc.--$3.56; +0.37; no options): Footwear
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cand.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Rallied off the early 2001 low to 3.50 last August, and then corrected to form the current 8.5-month base. Buying and money flow are very strong, and relative strength broke out on today's move. Volume was huge as well (654K; avg. is 110K). During the base, the accumulation weeks outnumber the distribution weeks 8 to 4. Strong accumulation leading to today's strong breakout.
BUY POINT: 3.62 on continued strong volume in excess of 250,000. Target=4.95. Stop=3.35.
POSITION: Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cand.html
ODSY (Odyssey Healthcare--$34.02; +1.02; no options): Long-term care
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/odsy.html
STATUS: Test Breakout. New issue in December. ODSY broke out of its first base, a 7-week cup with handle, in early April. It bounded up off the 18 day MVA (now at 32.40) and after hitting a high just over 36, has come back to test the 18 day MVA. Volume has tailed off to mostly below average levels on this pullback, much lower than the breakout and rally volume (129,500; avg. is 135,000). Money flow and buying are solid, and price/volume action in the recent base showed very good accumulation.
BUY POINT: 34.60 on volume of 150K or more. Target=40 (initial). Stop=32.50
POSITION: Stock (no option chain yet).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/odsy.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
GISX (Global Imaging--$19.08; +0.02; no options): Specialty retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gisx.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Still holding quietly and calmly in the handle to the pattern on very low volume (109K; avg. is 245K). Retail did not take part today, but this stock looks solid still with price/volume action showing accumulation weeks leading 5 to 1, a very nice ratio.
BUY POINT: 19.60 on volume of 350K+. Target=24.50. Stop=18.22.
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/gisx.html
THER (Therasense--$25.00; +0.35; no options): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ther.html
STATUS. Cup w/handle. Another new issue in October 2001. Still in the 4.5-month correction, forming a cup and the start of the handle. Today it showed a reach all the way down to the 18 day MVA on the low (22.75) and rebounded sharply on rising volume (293K; avg. is 296K). Money flow is excellent as is price/volume action which shows 6 accumulation weeks to just 2 distribution weeks during this base.
BUY POINT: 25.55 on volume of 450K or more. Target=30.66. Stop=23.75.
POSITION: Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ther.html
JILL (J. Jill Group--$31.54; -0.35; optionable): Catalog retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jill.html
STATUS: Testing BO. Showed a very tight doji on much stronger volume (597K; avg. is 244K). JILL is currently testing its March breakout of a 14-month cup with handle base. Price/volume action shows strong accumulation over distribution weeks (17 to 8 in the base). It rises $4 to $5 on each bounce off the 18 day MVA.
BUY POINT: Looking for more positions on a move over 32.92 on volume of 500k or more. Target=36. Stop=29.95.
POSITION: We are looking primarily at options to leverage the best return on the bounce. September 25c to buy (JUI IE; delta 82).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/jill.html
WATCHLISTS:
Awaiting Breakout Watchlist: These plays have not reached the buy point yet.
DVA (Davita $25.92; +0.13; optionable): Specialized health services
STATUS: Flying plateau. Tried to make the move today on much stronger volume (973K). Hit 26.20 on the high and pulled back. Looks ready to go again.
BUY POINT: 26.05 on volume of 800K. Target=31.25 (initial). Stop=24.25.
POSITION: Stock and/or October 22.50c to buy (DVA JX).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/dva.html
ITRI ($35.65; +2.41): Continued the strong bounce, blowing past 34 on above average volume (731K). The breakout remains in tact.
XL (XL Capital--$94.35; +2.24; optionable): P&C insurance
STATUS: Run to $100. Had given it up for dead, but it made a strong rebound at 92.50, moving back over the 50 day MVA on above average volume (953K). With this momentum we could get our momentum play back on track. A move over 95 on continued volume in excess of 950K. July 90c to buy (XL GR). Target: 102. Stop=94.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock option
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