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yahoo stock, world stock market
Begin Part 2 of 2
Weekly Economic Calendar (All times Eastern). The figures are the consensus expectations, not ours.
4-29-02
Personal Income, March (8:30): ): 0.4% actual versus 0.4% expected and 0.6% prior
Personal Spending, March (8:30): 0.4% actual versus 0.4% expected and 0.6% prior
4-30-02
Chicago PMI, April (10:00): 54.7 actual versus 55.50 expected and 55.7 prior
Consumer Confidence, April (10:00): 108.8 actual versus 108.0 expected and 110.2 prior
5-1-02
Auto Sales, April (00:00): 6.0M versus 6.0M prior
Truck Sales, April (00:00): 7.3M versus 7.3M prior
ISM Index, April (10:00): 54.6 versus 55.6
Construction Spending, March (10:00): -0.1% versus 1.1% prior
5-2-02
Initial Claims, 4/27 (8:30): NA versus 421K prior
Factory Orders, March (10:00): 0.7% versus 0.3% prior
5-3-02
Nonfarm Payrolls, April (8:30): 60K versus 58K prior
Unemployment Rate, April (8:30): 5.8% versus 5.7% prior
Hourly Earnings, April (8:30): 0.3% versus 0.3% prior
Average Workweek, April (8:30): 34.3 versus 34.2 prior
ISM Services, April (10:00): 57.5 versus 57.3 prior
TEAM TRADES
CNMD: Medical appliance maker that enjoyed a strong breakout in March and was moving laterally for over two weeks above the 18 day MVA. We noted the doji last night right over the 18 day MVA and the continued positive price/volume action in the lateral consolidation. We liked what we were seeing as this was an example of how a solid stock was holding up well while the rest of the market tanked. That is the strong action we like to see. Today when the market started up CNMD was ready to spring. At 1:30 it shot up on some huge volume spikes, hitting our buy point of 26.05. This is one we were waiting for and we shot out the alert quickly and then turned around and put in a limit order at the ask of 26.09. That was good enough and the stock continued its strong move up to 27 where it ran into intraday resistance in the last hour. Good volume, solid pattern, a good leader.
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information. A "prior high" refers to the high at the start of a base.
For conserving space on listings of stop losses, the symbol (7%) indicates that the stop is 7% below the buy point.
Stocks from Monday report:
WM: Solid point move toward a breakout from the handle. Volume was not there, but still fine. We want to see the volume surge on the breakout.
TENT: Gapped a bit higher but really when nowhere as volume backed off.
ABCW: Close to the breakout as volume jumped up to above average levels. Close to the breakout.
Continued Plays:
AMI: Again, still looking good.
NUE: Put. Tried to recover on some stronger volume, but closed well off the high.
NTBK: Put. Moving higher on stronger volume. Not its time just yet.
BRCM: Rallied up toward 18 day MVA on the high on rising though still below average volume.
CAT: Put. Stronger volume rally up to the 50 day MVA on the high.
CNMD: Made the breakout!
FDC: Put. Rallied a bit but on even lower volume. Another weak test.
GMRK: Still moving up even after the doji as volume rose again.
GSB: Nice move off of the dojis on above average volume.
GYMB: Small bounce got some volume backing it. Looking toward a breakout soon.
HARB: A tight doji testing the 50 day MVA on the low and rallying back on strong, above average volume.
HNT: Continued the move higher on continued strong volume.
HUM: Held the 10 day MVA, rallying again on stronger, above average volume.
IBPI: Trying to hang on above the 10 day MVA, testing it on the low on much lower volume.
IHI: Like the pattern as it continues to tighten on even lower volume. Like it.
OATS: Starting up again on once again above average volume (365K). Looking for more positions over 11.
OREX: Holding above the 50 day MVA, losing fractionally on rising but still below average volume. May be sold out here, but don't like the action.
PLB: Did not test, moving higher instead. Volume remained lower at average levels.
PMSI: Health services. Not much today as it banged up and down on very low volume.
RKY: Ran out of steam quickly, drifting higher on lower, below average volume.
RPM: Looking much better, rising on a good shot of volume. Like it.
STSA: Some weakness today after a strong move. Volume backed off and we look for a test to low 23's before a move back up. With the rally in the market we are going to let it work for us.
VWKS: Tried to move on much higher volume again, but could not hold the move.
ZQK: It is working on another handle now on below average volume.
Best Plays:
1) PETC: New issue looking good.
2) GPT: Nice breakout test.
3) CCRN: Looking at the breakout.
4) Watchlist plays: IHI, OATS, RPM
New plays:
PETC (Petco--$24.00; +0.64; no options): Pet store
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/petc.html
STATUS: A new issue just over 2 months old, PETC rallied and has now formed a shallow 5-week cup or flat base. We like new issues after they make their first correction or form their first base, and this is PETC's initial base. Money flow is obviously good, and the price/volume action in the base favors accumulation over distribution 2 to 1. Today was a solid move toward a breakout with volume rising on the move (458K).
BUY POINT: 24.75 on volume of 600K or better. Target=29.85. Stop=23.25.
POSITION: Stock (no option chain yet).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/petc.html
GPT (Greenpoint Financial--$49.45; +0.09; optionable): Savings & Loan
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpt.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout of its 7-month cup with handle, moving laterally toward the 10 day MVA the past two weeks. It has been riding the 10 day MVA on its lows (49.04) on this consolidation. Volume has been overall above average as it moves sideways (550K; avg. is 460K). We like the flat consolidation after the breakout. Savings & Loans are doing well. Money flow is still strong.
BUY POINT: 50.20 on volume of 700K or more. Target=60 (initial). Stop=47.75.
POSITION: Stock and/or October 45c to buy (GPT JI; delta 79; low OI). July 45c have more OI but less time (GPT GI; 84 delta).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/gpt.html
Revisited:
CCRN (Cross Country--$30.26; +1.31; optionable): Staffing and outsourcing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ccrn.html
STATUS: Another new issue. CCRN is going through its first correction as well, powering higher today on above average volume (635K; avg. is 370K). It is close to the breakout after today's move. Accumulation weeks during the base are far outpacing the distribution weeks. This is a business that should see the first employment improvement. Companies don't want to hire fulltime employees until they are sure recovery is well underway. They will hire temps to avoid paying benefits and training new employees.
BUY POINT: 30.70 on volume of 650K+. Target=36.94. Stop=28.55.
POSITION: Stock and/or September 25c (QCK IE; low OI; delta=94) or September 30c to buy (QCK IF; delta=92).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ccrn.html
NCC (National City Corp.--$31.20; +0.52; optionable): Regional Bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After hitting our buy point the stock decided to continue to working in its handle, now a 7-week handle that has the shape of its own cup with handle appended to its larger 9-month base. Volume has been accumulative in the handle, and it rose again today at above average levels (1.47 million; avg. is 1.1 million). Money flow is solid and getting stronger. Relative strength is already breaking out and is higher than it was at its previous peak near 32 last August. Trying to put together a solid breakout.
BUY POINT: 31.42 on volume of 1.5 million or better. Target=37.25. Stop=29.75.
POSITION: Stock and/or October 25c to buy (NCC JE; delta=94).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ncc.html
PSSI (PSS World Medical--$9.90; +0.25; optionable): Wholesale Medical Equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pssi.html
STATUS: Flat base/wedge. Looking ready for the breakout, moving today on strong volume (557K; avg. is 342K). Relative strength is ready to breakout, money flow is strong.
BUY POINT: 10.15 on volume of 525K or more. Target=13. Stop=9.35.
POSITION: Stock and/or August 7.50c to buy (PYQ HU; delta=87; low OI).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/pssi.html
PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: DGX, FRX, LLL, MIK. New: ICUI; RMCI
ICUI ($38.01; +0.01): After a very volatile spell ICUI has shown two consecutive dojis right above the 18 day MVA (37.55). Volume shot up today to above average levels (113,700; avg. is 91,500). Looking at new positions over 40.
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: BBBY, SRCL
BBBY ($37.17; +0.72): Found its feet again today, moving off the 10 day MVA today (36.05) on rising, average volume (3.25 million). Looking strong and looking at more positions over 37.80 on above average volume.
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CSCO, SEBL, EMLX, BRCM, HDI, BRCD, BUD, AMGN, WMT, ORCL, HB, NOC
CSCO (14.65; +0.52): Interesting. CSCO held at the February lows for 6 sessions and then mustered a move up today on rising, slightly above average volume (73 million). It tapped the down trendline on the high (14.98) and fell back, but it could get interesting on a strong move over that level. That could take it up toward the 200 day MVA at 17.75 on such a move after the double bottom. Not great even with that.
BUD (53.00; +0.39): Still like the pattern as it has moved laterally in a flat base the entire month. It was up again today on rising, above average volume (2.36 million; avg. 2.2 million). Looking at new positions over 53.35 on volume of 3 million or more.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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