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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/30/2009
ARST (Arc Sight--$17.77; -0.32; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/arst.html
After Hours: $17.77
EARNINGS: 06/11/2009
STATUS: Pennant. A new issue in early 2008. ARST has put in a nice run in 2009. After a break higher to end May it has put in another nice consolidation, the kind it has broke higher from many times on the run. It rallied well Monday and is testing Tuesday, tapping support at the 18 day EMA (17.31) on the low and recouping its losses. May come back to test a bit more before moving higher and that would be the best entry point, i.e. another test of the 18 day. Either way in pretty solid position to move higher. Nice.
Volume: 460.155K Avg Volume: 666.708K
BUY POINT: $17.91 Volume=1M Target=$21.54 Stop=$16.66
POSITION: AYQ IW - Sept. $17.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/arst.html
Play Date: 06/30/2009
GLW (Corning--$16.06; -0.21; optionable): Glass fiber, panels
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/glw.html
After Hours: $16.22
EARNINGS: 04/27/2009
STATUS: Ascending base. GLW is testing a break higher form last week, tapping the 10 day EMA (15.84) on the intraday low then rebounding a bit. Bounced off resistance in early June and again Monday (16.55) as it tries to make the break from its 12 week base. Looking for GLW to hold at the 15.85 level and then bounce. We can pick it up off of that move.
Volume: 14.662M Avg Volume: 16.665M
BUY POINT: $16.24 Volume=20M Target=$19.88 Stop=$15.15
POSITION: GLW KC - Nov $15c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/glw.html
Play Date: 06/30/2009
GOOG (Google--$421.59; -2.55; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/goog.html
After Hours: $420.50
EARNINGS: 04/16/2009
STATUS: After a solid move Friday as it moved off a 50 day EMA test (405.61), GOOG is testing, coming back to tap the 18 day EMA (418.23) on low trade, fading Monday and Tuesday. There is some resistance at 450 that might put the brakes on it, but we can make a pretty solid upside gain from here. Looking for a move up off this test that holds and that gives us the buy.
Volume: 2.595M Avg Volume: 3.417M
BUY POINT: $422.21 Volume=4.2M Target=$464.00 Stop=$416.77
POSITION: GOP HD - Aug. $420c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/goog.html
Play Date: 06/30/2009
MCD (McDonalds--$57.49; +0.26; optionable): Fast food burgers, and now, iced coffee
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mcd.html
After Hours: $57.49
EARNINGS: 07/23/2009
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. MCD looks ripe for a buy as it comes off the 50 day EMA (56.86). Tried the move Tuesday but could not make it all stick. This is a four week test following a sharp surge from mid-May to early June that took it from 51 to 61, kind of an ABCD pattern. Still a buy as it continues the move back up.
Volume: 7.334M Avg Volume: 9.169M
BUY POINT: $57.64 Volume=11M Target=$63.95 Stop=$55.92
POSITION: MCD IY - Sept. $57.50c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mcd.html
Play Date: 06/30/2009
SFLY (Shutterfly, Inc.--$13.95; -0.51; optionable): Social website for photos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sfly.html
After Hours: $13.95
EARNINGS: 04/29/2009
STATUS: Breakout test. SFLY surged Friday out of a 4 week double bottom formed off the 50 day EMA (12.96). Blasted off on the Russell rebalance. It is testing this week, coming back both days on lower, below average volume to tap the 18 day EMA on the Tuesday low (13.74). Looking for a move up off of here that holds toward the close is an entry point.
Volume: 231.277K Avg Volume: 297.08K
BUY POINT: $14.11 Volume=446K Target=$16.94 Stop=$12.96
POSITION: QFY IV - Sept. $12.50c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sfly.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/30/2009
NBL (Noble Energy--$58.97; -0.34; optionable): Oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nbl.html
After Hours: $58.97
EARNINGS: 07/30/2009
STATUS: Bear flag. NBL rallied sharply to the June peak then rolled over and sold off back to some support at 55 a week back. Rebounded last week and into this week to test, bumping into resistance at 60 Monday and Tuesday. Showed a doji Tuesday right at the 50 day EMA (59.27), and we are looking for NBL to make a break lower from that level to again test 55 and likely go a bit lower toward the 200 day SMA (52.35). A move to our initial target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 1.79M Avg Volume: 2.22M
BUY POINT: $58.77 Volume=2.5M Target=$55.25 Stop=$60.22
POSITION: NBL TL - Aug. $60p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nbl.html
Play Date: 06/30/2009
PCU (Southern Copper--$20.44; -0.32; optionable): Copper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcu.html
After Hours: $20.45
EARNINGS: 10/28/2008
STATUS: Putting on a downside play as well as the upside as PCE is at a position it could make a break either way. The ABCD upside pattern tested a bit deep and it is showing the wear and tear, unable to make the break over the March/May trendline. Closed at the 50 day EMA (20.54) on Tuesday, and if it cannot hold it is a play to the downside. A move to the target lands a 49%ish gain.
Volume: 3.335M Avg Volume: 4.846M
BUY POINT: $20.22 Volume=5.5M Target=$18.11 Stop=$21.28
POSITION: PCU TX - Aug. $22.50p (-77 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pcu.html
Play Date: 06/30/2009
SCO (ProShares UltraShort Crude Oil--$16.80; +0.50; optionable)
After Hours: $16.63
STATUS: Trend reversal. Oil could be a bit toppy near term as could be gold and silver. That demand issue discussed in the market summary is a problem for the product, and that overnight reversal from a new high on the move has us watching to see if oil is going to break to the downside. If it does SCO is a 2x short ETF that rises as oil falls. A good vehicle to play the drop.
Volume: 2.382M Avg Volume: 1.228M
BUY POINT: $17.11 Volume=1.8M Target=$19.88 Stop=$15.98
POSITION: SCO JQ - Oct. $17c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sco.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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