|
|
us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/03/2009
CME (Chicago Merchantile Exchange--$301.45; -6.82; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cme.html
After Hours: $302.30
EARNINGS: 07/23/2009
STATUS: CME is making its second test of the 38% Fibonacci level following its May to mid-June breakout and run higher. The 38% level often acts as support for a stock on a breakout, and if CME can hold here for the second time and bounce that is a strong indication it will rally toward the high at 346 and then, maybe after a pause, break on through and running higher. We were looking at CME as a downside play off the bear flag, and now if it holds this level (296) and rebounds it is a buy for the upside. Looking for more of a test toward 296 and then a rebound higher.
Volume: 908.444K Avg Volume: 1.372M
BUY POINT: $297.22 Volume=2M Target=$338.94 Stop=$292.88
POSITION: CME IC - Sept. $300c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cme.html
Play Date: 07/03/2009
FSLR (First Solar--$154.20; -1.09; optionable): Solar semiconductors, electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fslr.html
After Hours: $153.52
EARNINGS: 04/29/2009
STATUS: Gap fill. FSLR gapped higher in late April on strong, surprising earnings. It rallied a couple of times but made a double top and faded. It could not extend that powerful gap any further. It broke back into the breakout gap mid-June and then filled it. Now we are looking to play the move off of the gap fill. After all, FSLR gapped higher for a good reason, and now it has reset the clock ahead of the next earnings report to end July. After this gap fill we are looking to play the upside in a pre-earnings run now that we know its earnings can be very good in a weak economy. Looking for a move higher that holds into the close as our entry.
Volume: 3.341M Avg Volume: 3.359M
BUY POINT: $155.66 Volume=4M Target=$179.94 Stop=$14.48
POSITION: HJQ IJ - Sept. $150c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fslr.html
Play Date: 07/03/2009
HLTH (HLTH Corp.--$12.89; -0.20; no options): Healthcare information software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hlth.html
After Hours: $12.89
EARNINGS: 05/05/2009
STATUS: Flag. HLTH broke sharply higher mid-June, clearing a 4.5 month base. Strong move from a solid base, nice easy test the past two weeks. Reached down toward the 18 day EMA (12.68) on the Thursday low and rebounded to show a doji on the candlestick chart. Looking for a break higher to hold into the close as the entry point for the continued breakout move.
Volume: 818.603K Avg Volume: 1.261M
BUY POINT: $13.15 Volume=1.9M Target=$15.88 Stop=$11.91
POSITION:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hlth.html
Play Date: 07/03/2009
MASI (Masimo--$22.70; -0.20; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/masi.html
After Hours: $22.70
EARNINGS: 05/05/2009
STATUS: Rolling. MASI is back at support 22, a level that has held and bounced it higher 8 months. Granted the last move only took it to 26.50, but it has alternated between the lower bounces and the runs up to 28 and 30. Any of these moves can make us some good money, and we are looking to move in as MASI bounces higher once again. Thursday MASI showed a hammer doji on the candlestick chart, and that particular stick has sent it higher the last three major bounces.
Volume: 1.068M Avg Volume: 637.481K
BUY POINT: $23.12 Volume=825K Target=$28.55 Stop=$21.88
POSITION: MQS IX - Sept. $22.50c (56 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/masi.html
Play Date: 07/03/2009
POT (Potash--$96.00; +5.10; optionable): Fertilizer
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pot.html
After Hours: $95.83
EARNINGS: 07/23/2009
STATUS: Double bottom. POT was a downside play for us and made it a lot of money on its decline. Now we are looking for POT to make us a lot of money on the upside. It sold hard from its April to June run, coming back to the 78% Fibonacci level mid-June. It bounced, but the first bounce from that level is not often definitive. It came back and tested the 78% level again and bounced sharply Thursday. We closed the remaining downside positions on that move and now we are ready to move in as POT continues its bounce from this key point.
Volume: 15.28M Avg Volume: 8.392M
BUY POINT: $96.84 Volume=12M Target=$116.88 Stop=$90.06
POSITION: PYP IS - Sept. $95c (5 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pot.html
Play Date: 07/03/2009
SGR (Shaw Group--$26.47; -0.72; optionable): Engineering services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sgr.html
After Hours: $26.47
EARNINGS: 07/09/2009
STATUS: Rolling. SGR has traded down to the lower end of its range where it rolls from 26ish on up to 31ish. It has made this move fairly regularly over the past 3.5 months. Thursday SGR gapped lower and closed near the session low, but showed a doji on the candlestick chart. Gapped lower to that doji. If it moves up off of that candlestick that is a strong indication of a rebound move and we are looking to move in as it makes that move.
Volume: 1.481M Avg Volume: 2.217M
BUY POINT: $27.02 Volume=3M Target=$31.00 Stop=$25.89
POSITION: SGR JE - Oct. $25c (63 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sgr.html
Downside:
Play Date: 07/03/2009
CERN (Cerner--$60.05; -2.62; optionable): Healthcare information software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cern.html
After Hours: $60.17
EARNINGS: 07/29/2009
STATUS: Put. CERN looks ready to turn back down again after shaking us out of our last position. It started to sell but reversed and broke higher. Then it turned lower Tuesday on strong volume and then gave up the breakout on strong volume last Thursday. Always a key move when a stock cannot hold a breakout and is sent right back down and gives up the breakout on volume. Looking to move in as CERN continues the break lower. A move to the target lands a 46%ish gain.
Volume: 1.143M Avg Volume: 1.24M
BUY POINT: $59.81 Volume=1.4M Target=$55.04 Stop=$61.02
POSITION: CQN UL - Sept. $60p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cern.html
Play Date: 07/03/2009
EEFT (Euronet Worldwide--$18.86; -0.80; optionable): Business management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eeft.html
After Hours: $18.86
EARNINGS: 04/29/2009
STATUS: EEFT has rallied to its last major high hit in September 2008. It has worked laterally the past three weeks, consolidating the move. Nothing overly nefarious here but with the market ready to test lower, EEFT is likely to test this move as well. Indeed we are looking for a move down to the early May peak, its last run higher prior to this one. A move to that level lands a 57%ish gain.
Volume: 303.791K Avg Volume: 479.945K
BUY POINT: $18.69 Volume=525K Target=$16.65 Stop=$19.94
POSITION: HSQ TD - Aug. $20p (-63 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/eeft.html
Play Date: 07/03/2009
TSRA (Tessera Technologies--$25.11; -0.67; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsra.html
After Hours: $25.11
EARNINGS: 04/30/2009
STATUS: TSRA made a lower high the past week following a strong run from May to mid-June. The run to TSRA to major resistance at 26. It sold off and filled the gap higher, now trying to hold the 18 day EMA (24.63). TSRA did rally back to the bottom of the June lateral consolidation but could not punch through. With the market selling back we are looking for TSRA to test back further. A move to the target lands a 47%ish gain.
Volume: 424.492K Avg Volume: 1.044M
BUY POINT: $24.55 Volume=1.4M Target=$21.54 Stop=$26.11
POSITION: TJQ UE - Sept. $25p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tsra.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
stock recommendation
|
