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yahoo stock, us stock market
Begin Part 2 of 2
TEAM TRADES
CCRN: Staffing and outsourcing should be hot in a recovering economy where there is uncertainty as to the recovery's strength. Why take on full time employees and benefits when you can fill the need with temps? CCRN was ready to breakout, and today it delivered the move. It ran up early then tested quickly as the whole market sold off. Given the shaky rebound, we wanted to see the stock rebound solidly off that opening price. It did after a stutter step sideways and we issued the alert at a bit higher buy point due to the early move (31). The stock jumped up to 31.25 by the time we got back to the screen with the spread at 31.20 by 31.25. Not bad at all as far as a spread; seen a lot more, seen less. A limit order at the ask was quickly filled. The options showed a 30 cent spread at 4.40 by 4.70. With the stock position we did not want to load up on this one stock too much; a few contracts at 4.70 were added. With this lower volatility the trades seem to come pretty quickly. Maybe because we are not fighting as much as there are not many $3.50 option spreads right now. The stock ran back up to its open high at 32, faltered and fell back to 31.30 only to rebound in the last hour to close just off the high. Volume was heavy for the second session, exactly what we want to see, i.e., consecutive solid moves on solid volume. With that kind of breakout we will let it work for us, testing and then riding up. That is the plan, and we will see how the market deals with it.
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information. A "prior high" refers to the high at the start of a base.
For conserving space on listings of stop losses, the symbol (7%) indicates that the stop is 7% below the buy point.
Stocks from Monday report:
PETC: Made a fractional gain, but no volume yet. Still good.
GPT: Still a very nice, tight pattern.
CCRN: Another good move
Good moves: GMRK, AMI, GYMB, HARB, RKY
Continued Plays:
WM: Making the point move again, but no volume.
TENT: Fractional move on lower volume.
ABCW: Another doji at the breakout point. May not make it just yet, but pull back to 21.50 first.
AMI: Blasting off on the breakout!!
NUE: Put. Falling again.
BRCM: Gapped higher and sold down on rising, above average volume.
CAT: Put. Rallied then sold back today on stronger volume. Trying to still rally, but cannot cross 50 day MVA yet (55).
CNMD: Broke out and then broke right back lower today. Holding for now, but won't let below 25.25.
FDC: Put. Rallied again on lower volume. Running out of steam at the 10 day MVA.
GMRK: Running on rising volume!
GSB: Took a breather today, but the heavy volume is something to watch.
GYMB: Building on the move!
HARB: Blasting off those tight doji's on strong volume!
HNT: Doji after a run may mean a slight pullback (lower volume today).
HUM: Continuing to move back up on strong volume.
IBPI: Unable to hang on, falling on strong volume. If cannot hold above 4.25, out.
IHI: Looked good, but not acting good. No breakout, never hit buy point.
OATS: Working its way up, but slowly. Still looking for a move over 11 on strong volume to get it going.
OREX: Hit our stop loss today.
PMSI: Health services. Decent point move, but again, no volume.
RKY: Started back up on rising, but still below average volume.
RPM: Having trouble at 17, the prior highs.
STSA: Some weakness turned into a flogging as the stock gapped way down on no news we could find. Something is obviously up, and we will see if it will recover to the 18 day MVA near 22.50.
UPL: Moving up off the 18 day MVA on very strong, above average volume. Looks ready to another new high.
VWKS: Going nowhere, showing a tight doji on above average volume. Moving up stops to 7.
ZQK: Still working in the handle showing a doji on above average volume.
Best Plays:
1) COA: Motor homes are strong.
2) COL: Strong move on good volume. Looks ready to try a breakout.
3) PLB: Looks about ripe for a covered call play.
New plays:
COA (Coachmen--$18.78; +0.28; no options): Motor homes
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coa.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Moving toward a breakout in a 2-month ascending wedge, rising up the 50 day MVA and now 18 day MVA on the lows. Second homes, vacation homes, and now rolling homes are hot. Buying has been strong the past month and money flow is strong. Relative strength is ready to breakout. Price/volume action favors accumulation 2 to 1 in this base. Volume has been below average the past three sessions (37,900; avg. is 64,000).
BUY POINT: 19.30 on volume of 100K or better. Target=23.65. Stop=17.95
POSITION: Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/coa.html
COL (Rockwell Collins--$24.54; +0.74; optionable): Aerospace/Defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/col.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A new issue in June 2001, COL has formed a handle now as the pattern for the whole life of the stock forms the pattern. Money flow is excellent and relative strength is already breaking out. Price/volume action in the base is outstanding with 14 accumulation weeks to 2 distribution weeks. Volume was up today on a jump off of the 50 day MVA (612K; avg. is 500K). Hot sector, good pattern with great accumulation.
BUY POINT: 25.90 on volume of 750K minimum. Target=31. Stop=24.
POSITION: Stock and/or October 22.50c to buy (COL JX; 72 delta).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/col.html
GIVN (Given Imaging--$14.30; +0.45; no options): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/givn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Another new issue from October 2001. After rallying up to 18 the stock turned lower to 9 and has rallied to form a cup with handle. Now in the handle for the past two weeks, it is settling down with much lower volume. Today volume moved above average on a move up in that handle (309K; avg. is 232K). Money flow is huge and buying is very strong. Price/volume action in this base is very good with accumulation weeks leading distribution weeks 6 to 2.
BUY POINT: 14.80 on volume of 500K or more. The handle high is 15.75, but we are going to buy ahead of that because it was a one-day spike. Target=17.75. Stop=13.75.
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/givn.html
Revisited: A covered call play
PLB (American Italian Pasta--$51.21; +1.47; optionable): Pasta
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plb.html
STATUS: A buy at 47.54, PLB has moved almost straight up the past six sessions, climbing close to our initial target of 56.96. Wednesday it moves on sharply stronger, above average volume (139,400; avg. is 81K). This is just the move we wanted, but the pattern today was a gap higher and a doji. This could be a pause in the rally and a test back lower after such a strong move. We like to put our stock to work for us, and on pullbacks we like to sell some calls and then buy them back when the stock gets its feet. We are looking at selling some June 50c (selling for 2.70 at the close), and trying to net $1.50 or so on the pullback to near 48.50.
SELL POINT: 50.90. We will buy them back when the stock hits 48.50 or when it shows signs of attempting to bounce.
POSITION: June 50c to sell (PLB JF).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/plb.html
PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: DGX, FRX, LLL, MIK. New: ICUI; RMCI
MIK ($41.45; +1.00): Continuing its super move and break to a new high as volume rises even further (1.02 million). A leader in retail moving again, hitting our buy point for additional positions.
DGX (94.75; +2.86): Rallying on sharply higher volume (1.45 million), DGX has definitely broken resistance at 90. It is also above its upper channel line (92.60), and that is always something we need to be careful of. Stocks that get 2 to 3% over the channel line and show huge volume are potentially in blow off tops. DGX is not there yet, but we are going to keep an eye on it while we enjoy the move. In any case we should get a covered call play out of it before too long.
LLL (131.30; +3.52): Announce a split, go ballistic. LLL is similar to DGX, running well above its upper channel on rising volume. Again, it is not the blowout volume that makes you concerned, but it cannot sustain this pace. When it does show a doji we will look at selling some May or June 130 calls on a covered call play.
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: BBBY, SRCL
SRCL ($68.99; +1.46): Breaking out to a new high on rising, above average volume (398K). After some rough times in April, SRCL has set things straight and giving us another add-to point here.
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CSCO, SEBL, EMLX, BRCM, HDI, BRCD, BUD, AMGN, WMT, ORCL, HB, NOC
CSCO was interesting until the open today when it announced it was buying two other companies for stock. The pattern was not that great as we noted last night, and today hammered it.
BUD and NOC: NOC keeps on moving, but as with DGX and LLL, we have to watch out after this ballistic move. BUD made the buy point, but not the volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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