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top stock pick, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside: Not our favorite day for the upside, but there are some we wanted to get on the report
Play Date: 07/09/2009
AMZN (Amazon.com--$78.10; +0.74; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amzn.html
After Hours: $78.28
EARNINGS: 04/23/2009
STATUS: AMZN ran well from the first of the year, and we made some good money on it. Peaked in April as it needed a rest. It has consolidated with the rest of the market, and over the past five weeks has put in an ABCD pattern with the lows at the 78% Fibonacci level. A double bottom at that level can be a very good indication of a continued move higher. If AMZN can continue the move then we are looking at taking some upside positions.
Volume: 6.36M Avg Volume: 7.565M
BUY POINT: $78.39 Volume=10M Target=$89.95 Stop=$74.79
POSITION: ZQN JO - Oct. $75c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amzn.html
Play Date: 07/09/2009
FISV (Fiserv--$44.28; +0.08; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fisv.html
After Hours: $44.28
EARNINGS: 07/29/2009
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Nice run after breaking out to start May. Great surge to start June and then the current 4 week test, angling back towards the 50 day EMA (43.05). This is its second test of this move, holding at good retracement levels in something of a double bottom/ABCD pattern. Looking for a follow through move to the upside to give us the buy point.
Volume: 1.608M Avg Volume: 2.119M
BUY POINT: $44.51 Volume=3M Target=$52.44 Stop=$42.94
POSITION: FQV II - Sept. $45c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fisv.html
Play Date: 07/09/2009
JOYG (Joy Global--$31.56; +0.29; optionable): Farm machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/joyg.html
After Hours: $31.58
EARNINGS: 06/03/2009
STATUS: Looking at JOYG again as it bounced off the 78% retracement of its May to June surge on Wednesday. Key level for it to hold and if JOYG can continue higher from here we will start a few positions and see how the move plays out. Not a bad upside setup right here.
Volume: 2.463M Avg Volume: 4.164M
BUY POINT: $31.88 Volume=5M Target=$38.88 Stop=$29.88
POSITION: JJO JF - Oct. $30c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/joyg.html
Play Date: 07/09/2009
JWN (Nordstrom--$19.72; +0.76; optionable): Higher end retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jwn.html
After Hours: $19.72
EARNINGS: 08/13/2009
STATUS: With retail dominated by the discounters, JWN is maybe a surprise. It rallied nicely March to May and is currently testing. It is making a double bottom the past two weeks at the 50% retracement point of its strong run. Good volume off the test the past two sessions. Looking to pick up some positions as JWN moves through the 50 day EMA (19.89).
Volume: 5.754M Avg Volume: 6.046M
BUY POINT: $19.96 Volume=8M Target=$23.95 Stop=$18.56
POSITION: JWN JS - Oct. $19c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jwn.html
Downside: Want to be ready in case they turn down Friday and next week starts weak
Play Date: 07/09/2009
APA (Apache--$69.08; +2.96; optionable): Oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apa.html
After Hours: $69.08
EARNINGS: 07/30/2009
STATUS: Bear flag. APA is stair-stepping lower, bouncing after holding at some support at 65 this week. Just coming off its second push lower so there is more room for it to fall after it makes this bounce. Looking for a move up to the 10 day EMA (69.79) if it will give it to us and then play it down form there as it turns over. If it falls from the Thursday close we can live with that as well.
Volume: 5.409M Avg Volume: 4.01M
BUY POINT: From the Thursday close: $68.77. After a test of 70, 69.55 on the way back down. Volume=5M Target=$62.11 Stop=$70.07
POSITION: APA TN - Aug. $70p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/apa.html
Play Date: 07/09/2009
MCHP (Microchip--$22.38; +0.54; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mchp.html
After Hours: $22.38
EARNINGS: 05/07/2009
STATUS: Put. Looking for a reversal here from MCHP. It has lagged the other semiconductors, and though it has recovered some ground off the May low, it is making lower highs, a pair of them right at the 78% retracement level of the sharp May decline that reversed the nice March to May run. This pattern is a topping pattern, and though MCHP bounced on some better volume Thursday, we are looking for the move to run out of gas and this double top send it back down toward the May low at 19.50.
Volume: 4.22M Avg Volume: 4.372M
BUY POINT: $22.11 Volume=5M Target=$19.77 Stop=$22.77
POSITION: QMT TX - Aug. $22.50p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mchp.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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top stock pick
stock recommendation
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