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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside: Heavier on chips and electronics. We will see which plays make the moves.
Play Date: 07/10/2009
SMSC (Standard Microsystems--$20.05; +0.19; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smsc.html
After Hours: $19.97
EARNINGS: 06/25/2009
STATUS: Breakout test. Like SMSC because earnings are already behind it, and they helped it along, gapping SMSC higher to end June. It cleared its 3.5 month base on that move and has come back to test the past two weeks, filling the gap Wednesday. It bounced Thursday on stronger volume, a good indication that the buyers stepped back in to support it. Nice action and SMSC is ready to buy as it continues upside.
Volume: 208.3K Avg Volume: 210.824K
BUY POINT: $20.21 Volume=250K Target=$23.95 Stop=$18.61
POSITION: SMQ JD - Oct. $20c (51 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/smsc.html
Play Date: 07/10/2009
TYC (Tyco Intl.--$26.28; +0.54; optionable): Electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tyc.html
After Hours: $26.28
EARNINGS: 07/30/2009
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Nice steady run off the March low, peaking in early April. After that run it, as with the market, needed a test. TYC spent the past five weeks making the test. It hit the 50 day EMA (25.76) the third week of June and has held since. That also puts it over the 38% Fibonacci retracement with a modest double bottom; very solid action. Friday saw a nice upside bounce. If it continues at the start of the week it is a buy.
Volume: 3.343M Avg Volume: 4.926M
BUY POINT: $26.39 Volume=5.5M Target=$31.95 Stop=$24.91
POSITION: TYC JE - Oct. $25c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tyc.html
Play Date: 07/10/2009
VSEA (Varian Semiconductor--$25.79; +1.01; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsea.html
After Hours: $25.79
EARNINGS: 07/30/2009
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Very strong volume the past two sessions as VSEA gapped off the 50 day EMA (23.80), used by VSEA as support on the last test in its 10 week pattern. First really solid pattern after VSEA moved up off its initial base from October to March. Strong action and looking to move in on a continued move higher. If it tests back to start the week, all the better; we can pick it up as it continues higher off that test. Very solid.
Volume: 1.704M Avg Volume: 934.294K
BUY POINT: $25.91 Volume=1.1M Target=$31.45 Stop=$24.10
POSITION: UES KE - Nov. $35c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vsea.html
Play Date: 07/10/2009
VSH (Vishay Intertechnology--$6.25; +0.01; optionable): Electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsh.html
After Hours: $6.25
EARNINGS: 07/28/2009
STATUS: VSH is setting up an ABCD pattern starting in June as it consolidates the March to May and then the May to mid-June run. It has come back to test and make the D point, right at the 50 day EMA (6.04). Second consolidation off the March low. VSH is in great position to make the break higher yet again. Hitting on all cylinders.
Volume: 758.262K Avg Volume: 1.817M
BUY POINT: $6.38 Volume=2M Target=$7.97 Stop=$5.95
POSITION: VSH JA - Oct. $5c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vsh.html
Downside: Modest bounces setting up more downside runs.
Play Date: 07/10/2009
CLR (Continental Resources--$23.49; -0.42; optionable): Oil and gas exploration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clr.html
After Hours: $23.40
EARNINGS: 05/07/2009
STATUS: Head and shoulders. CLR broke lower Monday, breaking down from a 9 week head and shoulders pattern. Sharp break lower on strong volume, bouncing off 22 on the week lows. It rebounded back to some resistance at 24 where the 200 day SMA (23.74) resides as well. Looking for CLR to break lower again from here, continuing the push lower. This would be the third push lower since it peaked in June, and that still gives us plenty of room to make some good money. A move to the initial target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 1.325M Avg Volume: 1.146M
BUY POINT: $23.32 Volume=1.2M Target=$20.02 Stop=$24.27
POSITION: CLR UE - Sept. $25p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/clr.html
Play Date: 07/10/2009
SOHU (Sohu.com--$58.27; -1.02; optionable): Chinese internet services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sohu.html
After Hours: $58.75
EARNINGS: 05/04/2009
STATUS: Sharp break lower late June through last Tuesday. after a sharp decline it is bouncing, moving up to the 50 day EMA (59.51) on the Thursday and Friday highs. It has formed a bear flag, i.e. a slight rebound after a bounce higher from selling. If SOHU breaks lower from here on a return of a bit of volume then we move in and ride the next leg lower. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 716.644K Avg Volume: 1.357M
BUY POINT: $57.97 Volume=1.4M Target=$52.68 Stop=$59.97
POSITION: TKZ TL - Aug. $60p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sohu.html
Play Date: 07/10/2009
STR (Questar--$29.88; -0.22; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/str.html
After Hours: $29.88
EARNINGS: 07/28/2009
STATUS: Bear flag. Another energy stock that sold off hard and is bouncing. STR broke lower from a triple peak, falling in mid-June, moving laterally in a flag, then falling again to start July, finding bottom Tuesday when the market reversed intraday. STR rebounded to some resistance at 30, coincident with the 10 day EMA (30.22). Showed a doji Friday below these support levels. Watching to see if STR rolls over at this level and makes a new push lower toward the March lows. A move to our initial target lands a 65%ish gain.
Volume: 1.228M Avg Volume: 1.62M
BUY POINT: $29.69 Volume=1.8M Target=$26.72 Stop=$30.68
POSITION: STR TF - Aug. $30p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/str.html
Play Date: 07/10/2009
WFR (Memc Electronic--$16.61; +0.48; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
After Hours: $16.62
EARNINGS: 04/23/2009
STATUS: Bear flag. WFR is forming a familiar pattern, the rebound from selling that forms a flag pattern. WFR looked good but peaked in June and is now in a selloff. It sold through the last week of June, bounced up to the 50 day EMA (17.68) and price resistance at the same level. Tumbled again to start July and starting Wednesday it bounced through Friday. Made it to the 200 day SMA (17) on the high but faded back, gapping higher Friday but running into the resistance there. Watching to see if WFR rolls back over here for another push lower once more. There is a big trading range from the 50 day EMA down to 13. Our initial target is not that ambitious. It gives us a 50%ish gain. If WFR makes it there we take part of the gain then let the rest run and see if it can make it to the bottom of the range with the remaining positions.
Volume: 6.822M Avg Volume: 6.031M
BUY POINT: $16.53 Volume=7.5M Target=$14.48 Stop=$17.12
POSITION: CJC TQ - Aug. $17p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wfr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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