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us stock market, trade stock
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7/16/09 Investment House Alerts
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IH Alert Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit alerts: GOOG; NEU
Buy alerts: V
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
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VIDEO MARKET SUMMARY
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We are offering a video market summary featuring Jon Johnson talking about the market, the economy, and what is next for investors. We hope you enjoy this added feature to your subscription! We still include the normal Market Summary format so you have both a video to listen to while commuting or multitasking as well as the written report for review.
TO VIEW THE VIDEO MARKET SUMMARY CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/marketsummary.wmv
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SUMMARY:
- Market adds another 1% after a flat morning as Roubini unwittingly spurs an afternoon rally.
- Jobless claims better again, and get another government warning again.
- Roubini giveth, Roubini taketh away?
- Roubini, Shilling, the Fed? Who is right about when the declines end?
- IBM and GOOG earnings to battle it out.
- Still time to be patient and let plays come to us
Market adds 1% to gains with a Roubini assist.
Market adds 1% to gains with a Roubini assist.
The market added another 1% on top of Wednesday's nice 3% breakout gains. Of course that move pushed the indices close to the next resistance levels. It seems like all I talk about lately is resistance levels and how the market has to move up through them, but when you have the kind of selloff that the market showed through the fall of 2008 into March, you have nothing but resistance levels. The market has to repeatedly move up, test them and break through, and fortunately for the bulls it has been doing that.
Wednesday was a major market day for the bulls. Thursday was not bad either because the gains were not given up. You always have to worry when the market rallies sharply but moves up to former resistance levels - there is always worry that there will be a reversal and the sellers will come back in and send things down. On Thursday the market held on, as we saw on Tuesday after Monday's nice gains. The sellers did not dare step into the way of the upside and the market was able to hold onto its gains. It was not that easy - there was a bit of a hangover as there often is after a big move higher, and the start was somewhat negative. There was some news out but it was not driving the move one way or the other; things were just sluggish.
On the good news side of the ledger, jobless claims were better once again. 522K claims for the week, which was better than the 553K expected and the 569K lost the prior week. China's GDP rose 7.9%, topping the expectations at 7.5%. There were more earnings because, of course, it is earnings season. JPM was the headliner of the morning and, as with GS, it trounced its earnings.
Jobless claims were also on the bad news side of the ledger. They were better, but they came with another government disclaimer saying that the seasonal adjustments had artificially suppressed the number of jobless claims. The auto industry had started its layoffs for retooling a month early, adjustments were made when there was no reason to, and that artificially pushed the number lower. So even though we had 6.2M continuing claims, which were down 642K, it really was not down that much. We have to wait and see what happens after the adjustment period is over to get a true read on where we are with respect to jobless claims.
JPM beat the street with its earnings, but it also said that the commercial real estate market was going to be the serious trouble over the next year. It also had negative comments about consumer credit, and it says that these are two big issues still to face the market. That was somewhat of a downer because there has been such good news, and now suddenly it is like the punch bowl has been taken away and everyone is wondering what will move the market higher next. In the morning, there was not really anything to move it higher. Indeed, foreclosures hit 1.9M filings for 2009, with 336K in June alone. That is the fourth consecutive month of rising foreclosures. As you can see, there was not a lot of great news to drive the market higher, but it nonetheless managed to open flat, shake off a few ups and downs (volatility that is expected after a big move) and then plane out with modest gains into lunch.
Right after lunch, Mr. Roubini, also known as Dr. Doom, came out and supposedly had statements saying that the worst of the economic and financial conditions in the economy were over and that the recession would end in 2009. The market started higher at that point. What had been basically flat gains turned into a nice increase through the afternoon and into the close. The indices moved from modest, fractional gains to gains of 1%. This was despite news from Mr. Shilling who is very bearish on the economy. He appeared to counter Mr. Roubini, saying that the recession would last well into the first half of 2010. Of course, that does not mean there is recovery, it just means that the economy has stopped going down. Mr. Shilling expects the economy to continue to decline month-over-month, quarter-over-quarter until sometime in the first half of 2010, which is kind of a downer.
TECHNICAL
INTERNALS. With the news that bounced the market higher into the afternoon, there was some decent recovery in the breadth. Market breadth was nowhere near Wednesday's 7.1:1 on the NYSE, but it was not bad at 2.4:1. NASDAQ was decent at 1.7:1. With modest gains, one did not expect breadth to be exploding as it was in the prior sessions, particularly Monday and Wednesday. Volume was down, barely crossing $1B on the NYSE and down to $2B on NASDAQ. That is not terrible, but is not the above-average levels seen on the Wednesday volume.
CHARTS. SP500 added to its gain, but it is in that range from 925-930 from May up to the January peak at 944. Then there is the June intraday peak where the market rolled over for the last test down to 875 - that peak is at 956. With the SP500 closing at 941, you can see that it is still in that range where it is going to start bumping into the headwinds from the prior resistance, and there is nothing wrong with that. As I said before when it was bumping at these levels back in June, the market can run up, hit these levels, fall back, fail on its first attempt, and then break through later. What we see now is SP500 coming back up to hit those levels. It has been up four consecutive sessions and it is up 7% for the week. That is a very strong run in a very short period of time, which makes you question whether it can continue on and make the break over the key levels at 944 and 956. It can do many things, but there are two main moves it could make: It can rally up to the key levels and break through, and after such a move like that it would probably come back to test them. If they hold that would be great solid support. It could also rally up to those levels and turn back again, unable to break through. Again, that is not death for the move, but part of the basing process as it works its way through the trading range, trying to find enough buyers to continue the March to May move. It has been trying to find additional buyers to push it up through those resistance levels.
NASDAQ moved higher and cleared its June peak at 1880. It keeps knocking down the levels that are in front of it, and that puts it back up and looking at the October gapdown points, which are at 1897 and 1894. There is a bit of a twin peak there; after it broke down, it bounced back up. It gapped, then sold, rallied back up, and fell back down from there and started the rest of the slide lower. Those are very important points. NASDAQ is showing excellent action and taking over leadership again just as it did in the March to May move. That is very solid action from the stocks we have been playing: AAPL, BIDU, GOOG, MSFT - you know the routine. It is also up five days itself and 5.5% this week. It can continue this rise on up to the October resistance, just as SP500 can continue its rise. There is momentum in the market, and sellers do not want to step in. We have to see how it plays out because the big driver now is going to be earnings, and after hours there were two reports that could impact technology and generally the market overall. Google did not really blow the street away and therefore it was down after a nice run into earnings. We took some gain on GOOG today. IBM posted an excellent result as well, and it was substantially higher - it was up 3 points on the day and added another 3 points after hours. We will have to see how NASDAQ handles all of this, but overall, it is in good shape once more.
LEADERSHIP. Leadership reads now like a list from April and May. The chip and tech stocks, as well as commodities and industrials are moving up and moving well. Energy is still recovering. It was still bouncing as of Thursday, though it has had a pretty serious breakdown and there were questions about whether or not the energy stocks are going to be able to continue from here. Likely they will come back, sell again, and try to complete another leg of the pullback. That would set up a nice stair step pattern that they could reverse off of. We still have some downside energy plays that gapped higher on this news, and we are waiting for the market to soften a bit and see what happens with those positions and those stocks.
In summary, leadership continues to improve. Definite leadership is coming back to the market. A few weeks earlier, there were signs that it was showing up, but it was not as clear. After taking a 10-week pause, the financials appear to have come to life again. They are going to be key as to whether SP500 can make the breakout or not. If they continue higher, the odds are good. If they go back dormant, the odds are poor that it would make the breakout. Groups in retail are still moving higher, and others that have not made the break are setting up nicely. We have several areas back from the prior March to May rally that were leading higher and they are coming back around. There are definite positives. As I noted on Wednesday, there is a change of character that these moves higher have wrought. It is not a breakout, it is not posting higher highs yet, but there were solid buys behind these moves.
THE ECONOMY
Roubini: I am not a bull.
The market was up but unable to push higher. Then the Roubini story came out and the market rallied to post 1% gains on the session. After the close, Roubini issued a statement that basically took back what he said earlier - or at least corrected the perception of what he said earlier. What Mr. Roubini said was that he had not change his statement at all. He was saying there would be no growth in the US in 2009, and that his statements that said the worst could be over did not change that. When you think about it, that is true. The worst can be over, but that does not mean there is going to be growth. If you want to look at that positively, as the market did on the day, you can rally. That shows some insight into the market bias. It will take a story and look for the silver lining and rally off of that, but when things are bearish, you can report that it is raining gold coins outside and it will not matter. The market will think of some reason to look for the negative; it will say that someone is going to be hurt because coins are falling from the sky and that there will be lawsuits. Right now the market is in an upward bias and reading things positively.
After hours, when Roubini came out with this news, the futures were down a lot but they were not reversing the gains. If Roubini had really been the cause for the move higher, his retraction of the statements or the perception that was derived from his statements would be cause for the market to move lower, but it is not. That tells us that Roubini's statements were not the reason the market moved up, but a trigger that buyers who wanted to put money in the market used as a reason to move in. They believed the market would go up, and then put some money in the market, making it a self-fulfilling prophesy. When this kind of news hits after you have had a move up four or five sessions after resistance, and you have got a story that drags more money in, that is usually the late money and usually when the market corrects back. One should not buy in on the big moves up, but buy in beforehand when it is setting up, then pick your shots when it tests and sets up to move again. That is what we are doing right now.
Roubini, Shilling, or the Fed. Would you buy a used car from any of them?
There is another question out here other than Mr. Roubini and Mr. Schilling's views about the economy and the recovery. On Wednesday the FOMC minutes came out, and the FOMC upgraded its view about the US economy for 2009 and 2010. That was one of the positives that added to the upside fuel on Wednesday. The Fed stated that it saw the end of the recession in sight. It said that the recession would end in 2009 and that growth would resume in 2010 at a more robust 2.1%-3.3% rate, which is much better than the previous forecast. We have Mr. Roubini and Mr. Schilling taking the opposite side, saying that there was no end of the recession and no growth until 2010. All are somewhat on the same page - the Fed says no growth this year, and indeed its forecast now is -1.5% to -1% GDP growth. That is better but is still predicting no growth, as Mr. Schilling and Mr. Roubini are talking about. It does see a recovery in 2010, and Mr. Roubini and Mr. Schilling do not say they see a recovery, only the end of the recession. The big issue is when the recovery will resume, and of course that is the big money issue.
Do you trust the Fed and its forecast, or do you trust Roubini, or do you trust none of them? Roubini was correct because he saw that this was going to be a terrible recession, much worse than most of the economists saw, and he has taken a lot of cheap shots for that. On some of the trade shows after hours, they were saying "Mr. Roubini, tell me when the SP500 makes its next 100-point move and which direction it will be in, and that will be worth something." That is not his job however. He is not a trader, he is an economist, and he correctly protected that the subprime problem and the credit crisis would be much worse than anyone had anticipated.
Juxtapose that with the Fed. I am sure we all remember Mr. Bernanke saying that the subprime mortgage issue (indeed any of the mortgage problems) would not impact the economy. "They are contained and will not significantly impact the economy." Those were, if not the exact words, very close to them. We all know that not only was it not contained, it was a meltdown. How wrong can you be? He finally reacted, but instead of putting out a grass fire, most of the forest had already burned down when they finally made their moves and they were just trying to save the last stand of timber from total destruction. The question you have to ask yourself when you are listening to all of the forecasts is who do you trust the most? Once you determine who you trust, then you discount what they say by about 50% because the odds are that either their timing is wrong or they are just absolutely wrong in any event. Does it really matter to us? It does in the way that we want everything to be better, we want our kids' futures to be good, and we do not want to spend trillions of dollars on stimulus, but as for market trading and market investing, we look where the market is going and react to that. We have to be ready and have to know generally where the economy stands, but the market has the final say, and that is what we listen to.
THE MARKET
MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX: 25.42; -0.47
VXN: 24.8; -0.48
VXO: 25.54; -0.53
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.76; -0.02
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 42.7%. Stemming the recent decline a bit, rising from 41.47% though down from 43.6% and 44.8% the prior week. Hit a high of 47.7% on the run from the March lows. Steady rise from 36.0% in late April. Has passed 43.2% hit mid-April before anticipation of stress tests. Over the 35% threshold, below which is considered bullish, but this is not a bearish indication yet. Has to get up to the 60% to 65% level to be bearish. Dramatic rise from 21.3% in November 2008, the bottom on this leg. This last leg down showed us the largest single week drop we have ever seen, falling from 33.7% to 25.3%. Hit 40.7% on the high during the rally off the July 2008 lows. 30.9% was the March low. In March the indicator did its job with the dive below 35% and the crossover with the bears. A move into the lower 40's is a decline of significance. A move to 35% is a bullish indicator. This is smashing that. For reference it bottomed in the summer 2006, the last major round of selling ahead of this 2007 top, near 36%, and 35% is considered bullish.
Bears: 30.3%. Modest gain from 29.9% as the bears grow along with the bulls; not the usual scenario. Bears continue their recovery after falling as the market rallied. Up from 23.3% just over a month back. Still well off the 37.2% and the 37.1% in mid-April as the rally continued higher. As with bulls, below the 35% threshold considered bullish and starting to approach bearish levels (for the overall market). Now far from off the high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: +22.13 points (+1.19%) to close at 1885.03
Volume: 2.036B (-17.99%)
Up Volume: 1.558B (-838.93M)
Down Volume: 512.828M (+346.831M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.72 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 4.7 to 1
New Highs: 54 (+16)
New Lows: 12 (+5)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
Putting some distance on the November and June peaks (1785 and 1880) and on a course toward the October gap down points (1894, 1897). Back into the lead and very solid action up to this next resistance.
SOX (1.93%) led the market again and topped its June peak. A breakout but still effectively at the top of range. Hard to argue, however, with the results and the leadership.
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: +8.06 points (+0.86%) to close at 940.74
NYSE Volume: 1.175B (-14.52%)
Up Volume: 731.383M (-592.273M)
Down Volume: 430.119M (+383.094M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.39 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 7.25 to 1
New Highs: 49 (0)
New Lows: 54 (-3)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
Edging higher, moving in on the June high at 956. Still a ways to go to the 1000 November peak. This is the lick log for the SP500 as it again tests the top of its range after a strong bounce off the 875 support level. 7.7% gain up to that next resistance. Two major peaks at this level and the October 2008 congestion there as well. Lots of work to do, but a much stronger upside move this time around.
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
DJ30
Cut off about 100 points of its 400 toward the January peak, now just a mere 300 points away. Content to follow the move but if the financial components start to run, so does the Dow.
Stats: +95.61 points (+1.11%) to close at 8711.82
Volume: 216M shares Thursday versus 305M shares Wednesday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
FRIDAY
Someone said it was Friday the 13th on television, and I think their calendar is a bit off. Nonetheless, we are already at a Friday on a market that is seeing 5 1/2-7% gains on the major indices. Those are really big moves. With that in mind, we do not really like to buy on Friday unless we are trying to set up for the next week. The question we asked Thursday is still pertinent today: Do we chase any stocks higher? No, of course we do not. What we want to see the resolution of on Friday is who wins - whether GOOG or IBM, or whether it is a push. IBM was up nicely after hours and if it wins out, we will see stocks move higher and we can take some more gain on IBM positions or AAPL, and others that get caught up in the coat tails of that move higher. Are we going to go in and buy new upside? No, this is not the time to be buying upside. The caveat to that is there are always good stocks that do not get swept up with the rest of the market for whatever reason. Maybe they ran higher before and are consolidating, which is what leaders do after all - they lead higher, and then take the first rest. They may provide good buys for the next move higher, but in general, you do not go out looking for a bunch of stocks to buy after they have moved up four, five, or six days. We are still in the process.
Thursday the market still moved higher, letting that upside momentum work off and then let the stocks form their next pattern, whether they are flag patterns or little pennant patterns that are bullish. There are other stocks that are already working on patterns, so we will have some patience and let them come to us versus chasing them. We have some great positions that are working well and we will keep taking gain on them as they move up instead of runs out and chasing a bunch of new positions. Good stocks will come if you wait, and we will get good entry points on them. We have had to drop a lot of plays where the stocks moved higher, but they gapped higher, and the risk/reward was skewed enough that it stopped being a good play. If you end up getting in after the stock makes a 10-15% move, then you are looking at having to put a stop at a point where it is likely going to come back to test and it will take you out and you will miss the move. We had to let them go, but they should return. I think someone wrote a love poem about letting them go so they will come back. In any event, the point is not to chase them but to let them come to us. We will get better buys and make more money off of that.
There will be some gaps that we can play that will either be filled or held. They are going to give us good plays, but we have to be patient for those. Others will come back and test levels that they broke through. We will keep watching them, and we have a whole list of the ones we have been looking at (and there are more out there). We will put them back on the report when and if the time is right. In the interim, let the upside run, bank some gain where possible (such as IBM) and then see where they come back. 99% of the time if you wait, you will get better entry or exit points. That applies to some of the energy downside plays that we had that gapped up and have rallied up but have not really broken their trends or broken through key resistance. If we wait, we are likely to get a few days of pullback. They may turn into selling again. No one really knows - it could be the situation where this move runs up to resistance, then trades all the way back down to the bottom of the trading range again. We will have plays waiting to make that move as well. We have played the downside before and we can play it again if it develops. Be a little careful here with the character change. The move upside was stronger, and remember that upside bias I was talking about where things are viewed through rose-colored glasses. A turn back down to test does not mean the shorts are on again. You have to watch the volume and see if the shorts - the big sellers - really return to the market. They may not do it this time, given the strong move higher. We can always get a reversal, but we will have to watch what the market shows us, and take what it gives us.
In short, that is pretty much has to be the game plan at this point. I know a lot of people like to trade every day, and there is usually a trade out there. Today it was Visa, but there is not a plethora of trades and you do not want to push the market. Let it come to you, play by the rules that it wants to set, not by the rules that you want to play by, and you will do fine. We have had some great moves and great gains and we will get more plays coming in. It is time to be a little patient now. I am Jon Johnson, have a great evening and I will see you with another video on the weekend and discuss some more tactics for the coming week.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1885.03
Resistance:
1897 is the October post gap intraday high.
1947 is the October gap down point
1984 from late September
2099 is the mid-September low
2169 is the March 2008 double bottom low
Support:
1880 is the June peak
1862 is the July peak
1786 is the November intraday high
1780 is the November 2008 closing peak
1773 is the May intraday peak
The 50 day EMA at 1771
1770 is the mid-October interim peak
1673 is the prior April peak
1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak
1664 is the May 2008 low
1661 is the April 2009 prior peak
The January closing peak at 1653 (intraday)
The 200 day SMA at 1621
1623 is the early April peak
1620 from the early 2001 low
1603 is the December peak
1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made
1587 is the March 2009 high is getting put to bed again
1569 is the late January 2009 peak
1542 is the early October 2008 low
1536 is the late November 2008 peak
1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low
1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.
1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low
S&P 500: Closed at 940.74
Resistance:
944 is the January 2009 high
956 is the June intraday peak
1000
1050
Support:
935 is the January closing high
932 is the July peak
930 is the May peak. Bending.
919 is the early December peak is bending
The 50 day EMA at 902
899 is the early October closing low
896 is the late November 2008 peak
888.70 is the April intraday high.
882 is the early May low
878 is the late January 2009 peak
The 200 day SMA at 875
The prior April peak at 876
866 is the second October 2008 low
857 is the December consolidation low; cracking but not broken
853 is the July 2002 low
848 is the October 2008 closing low
846 is the April peak
842 is the early April peak
839 is the early October 2008 low
833 is the March 2009 peak
818 is the early November 2008 low
815 is the early December 2008 low
805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level
800 is the March 2003 post bottom low
Dow: Closed at 8711.82
Resistance:
8829 is the late November 2008 peak
8934 is the December closing high
8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation
9088 is the January 2009 peak
9387 is the mid-October peak
9625 is the October closing high
Support:
8626 from December 2002
8588 is the May high
8581 is the July peak
8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low
8451 is the early October closing low
8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation
The 18 day EMA at 8423
8375 is the late January 2009 interim peak
The 50 day EMA at 8378
8315 is the February 2009 peak
8307 is the April 2009 intraday high
8221 is the May 2008 low
8197 was the second October 2008 low
8191 is the prior April peak
8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.
8141 is the early December low
The early April intraday peak at 8113
The early April peak at 8076
7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.
7932 is the March 2009 peak
7909 is the early January low
7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.
7867 is the early February low
7702 is the July 2002 low
7694 is the February intraday low
7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
July 14 - Tuesday
Core PPI, June (08:30): 0.5% actual versus 0.1% expected, -0.1% prior
PPI, June (08:30): 1.8% actual versus 0.9% expected, 0.2% prior
Retail Sales, June (08:30): 0.6% actual versus 0.4% expected, 0.5% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, June (08:30): 0.3% actual versus 0.5% expected, 0.4% prior (revised from 0.5%)
Business Inventories, May (10:00): -1.0% actual versus -0.8% expected, -1.3% prior (revised from -1.1%)
July 15 - Wednesday
Core CPI, June (08:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior (no revisions)
CPI, June (08:30): 0.7% actual versus 0.6% expected, 0.1% prior (no revisions)
Empire Manufacturing, Jul7 (08:30): -0.55 actual versus -5.00 expected, -9.41 prior (no revisions)
Capacity Utilization, June (09:15): 68.0% actual versus 67.9% expected, 68.2% prior (revised from 68.3%)
Industrial Production, June (09:15): -0.4% actual versus -0.6% expected, -1.2% prior (revised from -1.1%)
Crude Inventories, 07/10 (10:30): -2.81M actual versus -2.90M prior
Minutes of FOMC Meeting, June 24 (2:00)
July 16 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 07/11 (08:30): 522K actual versus 553K expected, 569K prior (revised from 565K)
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, May (09:00): -$19.8B actual versus $16.5B expected, $11.5B prior
Philadelphia Fed, July (10:00): -7.5 actual versus -4.8 expected, -2.2 prior
July 17 - Friday
Building Permits, June (08:30): 523K expected, 518K prior
Housing Starts, June (08:30): 530K expected, 532K prior
End part 1 of 3
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