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Begin Part 2 of 3

TEAM TRADES

NTBK: A play that was downside became upside as it turned back up from its breach of the 50 day MVA and vaulted on higher volume. Friday we were waiting until later in the session to determine if volume was going to be solid and the moves were going to hold. NTBK looked solid with very strong volume once again. We decided to enter positions as it cleared the recent March highs on that strong volume. We saw the stock trade in a range from 17.90 to 18 for several hours after the early morning surge. It sold back in the last hour, but made an immediate rebound to 18. It pulled back again on lighter volume to 17.83 and held. When it started back up we were ready to enter positions. We issued the alert. The stock was trading 17.92 by 17.94. Optionable, but Friday we were picking this one up for longer term. With the narrow spread we dropped in a limit order at the ask. It did not take long to fill. The stock moved back up to 18, but again it ran into a wall of resistance. In the last 10 minutes it turned and sold down on some heavier volume to close at 17.86; late session selling put us a bit underwater, but that is no problem. We look for it to hold above 17 on some rest and then kick off the move higher once again.

THE PLAYS: FBC announced its stock split Friday and blasted up yet again! A great run into the split on the breakout and a great continuation on the news! RNR announced Thursday after hours!

BONUS PLAYS: MXIM hit the buy point on the put with a continued strong fall. NTBK broke out, and ABY is still looking good.

Downside plays:

CYMI (Cymer--$43.38; -2.57; optionable): Semiconductor equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cymi.html
STATUS: CYMI was a good upside bonus play a couple of months ago for us, but now semiconductor equipment has succumbed to punishment. CYMI dropped back abruptly toward the end of March, and tried holding the 50 day MVA (46.20) for a few sessions. However, Friday CYMI fell hard, gapping down and then continuing to drop as volume spiked up to 2.38m (avg. 1.4m). It hit 42.14 at its low, and we could see an attempt to test back up toward 45. We will look at that as an opportunity to get into positions on a put. Targeting 35.
BUY POINT: From here or after a test toward 44-45, a drop back through 42.50 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: June $50 puts to buy (CQG RJ).

AMG (Affiliated Managers--$64.45; -0.17; optionable): Financial services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amg.html
STATUS: AMG steadily dropped back toward its 200 day MVA in March and April, finally tanking hard through that level (67) two weeks ago. On the initial drop it fell to touch 61.77, and has taken a relief bounce from there. This week AMG has crawled back up on lighter, but still quite strong volume, tapping back up to its 10 day MVA (64.75) Friday. AMG reversed a bit from there, but on low volume of 197,200 (avg. 236k). We will look for AMG to continue to be held down by the 10 day, and look for more volume on a drop back. On a put play we will initially target 58, although we could see 56.
BUY POINT: A drop through 63.50 on above average volume. Stop: 66
POSITION: June $70 puts to buy (AMG RN - no open interest).

Upside Plays:

SGMS (Scientific Games--$9.50; -0.10; optionable): Business equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sgms.html
STATUS: An eight week cup with handle. SGMS made a strong move up Tuesday toward its high (left-side of the pattern at 10.21), hitting 10.15 and then pulling back, forming a handle. Volume has dropped off the last few sessions, as it should, holding the 10 day MVA to close and the 18 day (9.37) on intraday lows. Friday volume was very low (92k; avg. 335k) as SGMS pulled back to close at the 10 day. Looking for the stock to continue to hold support and break out. Good money flow. Target: 12
BUY POINT: Aggressive bounce: 9.80 on above average volume. Stop: 9.20. Breakout: 10.25 on volume of 500k. Stop: 9.53 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or June $7.50 calls to buy (TUJ GU - 5 open interest; plenty at the $10 strike).

DZTK (Daisytek--$15.94; -0.07; optionable): Office supplies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dztk.html
STATUS: DZTK blasted up in March to a new high (18.41), breaking from a seven-month cup pattern. However, it dropped back hard from that move, and what started as a handle turned into an extended consolidation over the 50 day MVA (15.42). DZTK bounced from the 50 day this week, but did not have a lot of volume behind it, so has dipped back the last two sessions. The drop was on low volume, showing consecutive loose dojis that are holding the short-term MVA's (18 day at 15.70). Something of a little saucer with handle here, and we are looking for DZTK to hold the 18 day and produce a breakout with big volume. Great money flow and excellent relative strength. Target: 19.50.
BUY POINT: 16.60 on volume of 236k (avg. 157k; Friday 84k). Stop: 15.44 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or September $15 calls to buy (QDZ IC).

PBY (Pep Boys--$19.06; +0.27; optionable): Auto parts stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pby.html
STATUS: Nice base on base. PBY broke from a reverse head & shoulders in November, and after the breakout surge PBY formed a five-month cup pattern. It broke out last week before a true handle could form, and after the initial strong move PBY ducked back quickly, but held support at the 10 day MVA (18.50). It has now formed an ascending wedge on generally lower volume, Friday tapping the 10 day but moving up to close as volume remained light at 280,700 (avg. 308k). Set up for a move. Good money flow, buying and relative strength. Target 23.25.
BUY POINT: 19.49 on volume of 420k. Stop: 18.13 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or July $17.50 calls to buy (PBY GW).

COA (Coachmen Industries--$19.19; +0.51; no options): Recreational vehicles
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coa.html
STATUS: COA recent broke from a two year base, and over the last two months has formed a smaller cup with handle; the pattern has consistent highs so also is in the form of an ascending wedge. COA formed the cup when it tested the 50 day MVA (then 16, now 17.34) and then held the 18 day in the handle, moving back up this week. Friday saw a strong move, with volume sharply up to 86,300 (avg. 59,400). COA is just under the recent (handle) high, and we are looking for a breakout. Strong buying and money flow, and relative strength has broken out ahead of price. Target: 23.50
BUY POINT: 19.60 on volume of 90,000. Stop: 18.23 (7%)
POSITION: Stock only (no option chain)

Quick updates prior bonus plays:

UAG - Continued up with another strong move!
AVY - Nice breakout this week, but could test back a bit here
XTO - Broke out but not convincing
TBCC - Nice 50 day MVA bounce, but losing momentum as volume falls
MTB - Solid move, slowing to a doji today, so we watch for a possible pullback
ARW - Continued down on strong volume on the put
EMR - Strong bounce and back over the 200 day, so we could see a stop on the puts
TDY - Nice breakout! Pulled well off the intraday high, so a test back is possible here
FCTR - Hit the buy point but could only manage a doji
MFC - Blasted up and continued today, although a weakening move
IMDC - Pulled back a bit from the move but holding support at the 10 day
BRCD - Took profits on the put, momentum could still be down though
CCL - Quick test of the breakout
IRIC - Bounced back up after the quick test
LEXR - Hammer doji over support, looking for a bounce
RGBK - Now RF, and just creeping up although volume has been big
CMX - Fell back hard, protecting positions
RTEC - Continued down on the put play
DRTE - Pullback in the handle
MCY - Holding up after the breakout
HLT - Testing the breakout on low volume
PZB - Holding support after the gap up and reversal
ASCA - Back to the 50 day on stronger volume, but held Friday with a doji
SMTC - Fell back again from the 10 day on the put
CAT - Dropped back again, looking for more on the put
JILL - A bit erratic; it could move up again, but protecting from a downward move through the 50 day
CF - Nice consolidation over the 10 day, something of an ascending wedge
CDIS - Broke out!
FDS - Continued through the 200 day, took profits
TIN - Strong move up over the 10 day, looking at stopping out puts

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK: Looking at EXPD on Wednesday, with ATK and MGA on Thursday.

NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:

ABC (Amerisourcesbergen--$75.86; -0.13; optionable): Drugs wholesale. We are researching a forecast date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abc.html
BACKGROUND: Last split in March 1999 in the $70 range. The annual shareholder meeting was on 2-27-02 at which time no additional shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: ABC has been on a solid uptrend for two years, and recently broke from a six-month cup with handle. After a quick test of that breakout, ABC blasted up last week on big volume, hitting a new high at 79.70. It has made a nice pullback this week, gradually coming back as volume has mellowed. Friday ABC tapped the 10 day MVA at its low of 75 for the second consecutive session, comfortably over prior highs at 73. Volume was down at 676k (avg. 991k), and after this nice pullback we are looking for a bounce. Target 90.
BUY POINT: Bounce: Over 78 on volume of 1.2 million. Stop: 72.63 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or August $75 calls to buy (ABC HO).

MEG (Media General--$67.62; -1.18; no options): Newspapers. Forecast to announce a split on 5-24-02 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abc.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that MEG has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-24-02 at 11:00 ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: MEG broke out from a cup with handle in February, charging to a new high. It continued with a strong surge in early April that hit up to 69.49, and since has pulled back to support of the 18 day MVA (67.27). It pulled back Friday, showing something of an ascending wedge, holding support on low volume (37,900; avg. 81,400). Looking for a hold and another surge to breakout. Target: 82.
BUY POINT: 69.21 on volume of 110,000. Stop: 64.90. Over the high: 69.59 on volume of 110,000. Stop: 64.90.
POSITION: Stock only (no option chain).

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT BEST PLAYS:
1) FBC - Announced a split!
2) EASI - Looking to breakout
3) ATK - Strong stock forecast for this week
4) BER - Nice test
5) MGA - Forecast for Thursday
6) EXPD - Forecast for Wednesday

FBC (Flagstar Bancorp--$32.60; +2.20; no options): Savings & Loan. Got the split announcement today! Splits 3:2 effective June 1.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fbc.html
STATUS: On the news FBC gave another huge surge, running up on big volume of 264k (avg. 56k). We caught this one on its breakout in mid-April, and after that strong breakout and a brief rest it just continued to rise. We were concerned that it had steadily made gains without rest, even though on strong volume, so were looking for a pullback. However, with the news today the stock got new life. Protecting profits now as we could get some abrupt profit-taking at this point. We will then let it set up and look for something pre-split.

EASI (Engineered Support--$51.00; 0.00; optionable): Aerospace/Defense. Forecast to announce a split the week of 5-27-02 with earnings. At this time, the company cannot confirm this date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/easi.html
BACKGROUND: EASI last announced a 5:4 split on 2-1-2001 with a board meeting at a price of $28.50. Before that it announced on 6-12-98 at a price of $26.50. The company has sufficient shares for a 3:2 split.
STATUS: Trying to break from a cup with handle. It has been in a nice, low volume handle for the last two weeks, this week moving back up from the 47 range (18 day MVA at 49.05 and 50 day at 45.94). Friday EASI tested back below the 18 day at its low, but pulled back up to close with a doji on level volume of 277k (avg. 195k). Looking for more volume behind a move to produce a solid breakout. With some strength on a move, targeting 62. The left side high in the pattern is at 58 from October 2001.
BUY POINT: 52.23 on volume of 290k. Stop: 48.57 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or August $50 calls to buy (UFE HJ).

ATK (Alliant Techsystems--$112.44; +0.88; optionable): Aerospace/Defense. Forecast to announce a split on 5-9-02 before the open with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atk.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 8-8-01 at a stock price of $98.20. The announcement was made a day after the annual shareholder meeting and in conjunction with earnings. The annual shareholder meeting was on 8-7-01 at which time additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 3:2 split.
STATUS: Great breakout this week, and now ATK is resting with a couple of low volume dojis. The move up actually started after a test of the 50 day MVA at 100, making a nice bounce then resting in the range of its April consolidation. ATK is now at a new high, Friday showing a second consecutive doji as volume has dropped way off (241,500 Friday; avg. 315k). Looking for a hold of 110 with a low-volume move back, and on a strong move up, still a buy up to 114. Target 125.
BUY POINT: Riding current positions, and we can look at new positions on a hold of 110 and a strong move back up going toward the forecast.
POSITION: August $105 calls to buy (ATK HA).

BER (W.R. Berkley--$59.75; -0.46; optionable): Property & Casualty Insurance. Forecast to announce a split at the annual shareholder meeting on 5-14-02 at 2:30 ET.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/ber.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that BER has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-15-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: With earnings Monday BER gapped up from a test of its 50 day MVA (57.26), and has held up on the move. It has pulled back a bit off of Wednesday high-volume doji, but showing good action as volume decreases (down to 131,400 Friday; avg. 121k), and holding close to prior highs (60) and over the 10 day MVA (59.40). Holding existing positions and looking for BER to hold support here. On a strong move back up we can look at new positions. Targeting 68 with current positions, and we can look at options positions from here.
BUY POINT: On a hold of support here, a move back over 61 on increased volume. Stop: 57.
POSITION: July $55 calls to buy (BER GK).

MGA (Magna--$75.00; -2.38; optionable): Auto Parts. Forecast to announce a split 5-9-02 with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mga.html
STATUS: Made a promising bounce back up from the 50 day MVA (72.44) this week, but suffered a setback Friday. On the news of a redemption of convertible debentures, MGA gapped back below its 18 day MVA (74.63), but caught support over the 50 day and pushed back up intraday to close. Volume was off the scale at 2.73m (avg. 276k). MGA broke from a double bottom in March and had failed on a recent attempt to break from a consolidation formed after the breakout move. However, after a solid move Thursday we were looking at another move to a new high going toward the forecast. With Friday's action we will see if MGA can hold up and try again. On a breakout we were targeting 90.
BUY POINT: Riding current positions, cautious of a break of the 50 day. If it can hold here, the aggressive can look at a move back over 76.50 on continued strong volume. Stop: 71.80.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $70 calls to buy (MGA HN).

EXPD (Expeditors--$59.01; +0.50; optionable): Air delivery & freight. Forecast to announce a split on 5-8-02 after hours with earnings or with the shareholder meeting (2:00 PT).
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/expd.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 5-6-99 at a stock price of $62.50. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Just has not been able to generate anything. EXPD tried to break out of a reverse head & shoulders at the start of April, but steadily pulled back after that failure, recently giving up the 50 day MVA (58.34). It did not go into a free-fall, instead recovering a bit this week, rising back over the 50 day to close. Volume, however, has remained consistently low on both the drop and this week's recovery. Not showing much going into the forecast. For aggressive positions we will need to see strong volume kick in on a move up.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 60 on volume of 410k (avg. 303k, Friday 202k). Stop: 57.50. The breakout is a move over 61 with volume of 410k. Stop: 57.50
POSITION: Stock and/or August $55 calls to buy (URP HK).

PRE-SPLITS BEST PLAYS: Remember, we try to grab Pre-Splits as they break out of good patterns or as they start a run right before the split. Not looking for home runs, but looking for those $3 to $4 moves running into the split, watching for topping signs and potential resistance. Not huge money, but it can be very steady. We set our initial stops at the 7-8% range below the purchase price (or just below obvious support), and move them up on a move to preserve our profits.
1) FAST - Looking for a bounce
2) SU - A new play!
3) UPC - Another new play!
4) RNR - Ditto
5) LLL - Testing the recent move
6) MCHP - Threatening a major breach of support

FAST (Fastenal--$84.02; +0.14; optionable): Home improvement stores. Splits 2:1 effective 5-13-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fast.html
STATUS: Still looking good. FAST made a great move in April, bouncing from the 50 day MVA (then 72.50, now 77.96) in early April and then making another move after forming a lateral consolidation that tested its 18 day MVA (currently 82.03). It made a new high at 86.48 recently, pulling back over the past week to test the former consolidation highs and the 18 day. Thursday FAST started back up as volume spiked up again to huge levels. Friday it slowed to a doji on much lighter volume (though still strong at 390k; avg. 266k). Still looking for a continued bounce. Targeting 95.
PLAY: Over 85, with August $80 calls to buy (FQA HP).

SU (Suncor Energy--$35.86; +1.16; optionable): Oil & gas refining. Splits 2:1 effective 5-23-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/su.html
STATUS: After a great February-March move, SU dropped hard through the 50 day MVA (34.52) in April. After a bit of recovery, SU dipped back again to test the 50 day this week. Friday SU bounced nicely, rising to close just below its recent closing high (35.97). Looking for a continuation of the move. Targeting 41 (high at 37.81).
PLAY: Over 36.44, with June $35 calls to buy (SU FG - no open interest as yet). Stop: 34

UPC (Union Planters--$50.18; +0.18; optionable): Regional bank. Splits 3:2 effective 6-7-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/upc.html
STATUS: Broke out in February, but pulled back to test the 50 day MVA (48.32). It took a bounce from the 50 day (then 46.50, currently 48.32), hitting a new high and turning laterally. It is holding over the 10 day MVA (49.90), moving now in a small ascending wedge. Volume has been quite heavy as the stock has tightened in its pattern. Friday UPC showed its third consecutive doji as volume dropped back sharply to 460k (avg. 441k). Looking for a breakout, targeting 56.
PLAY: 50.68 on volume of 460k, with August $47.50 calls to buy (UPC FW). Stop: 48

End Part 2 of 3

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