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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/11/2009
NKE (Nike--$56.79; -0.35; optionable): Sports apparel, sporting goods
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nke.html
After Hours: $56.79
EARNINGS: 12/17/2009
STATUS: Cup w/Handle NKE is forming a nice 10 week base from late June and into August. The current pullback early in the month is setting up the handle. This is NKE's first base since rallying off the March low, and that puts it as a prime candidate to breakout and run higher. Like how it used the 200 day SMA (50.33) and May lows as support for the cup. Looking for a good move higher that sticks it to the close on some rising volume.
Volume: 1.904M Avg Volume: 3.801M
BUY POINT: $57.21 Volume=4.5M Target=$65.95 Stop=$55.21
POSITION: NKE JK - Oct. $55c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nke.html
Play Date: 08/11/2009
PNRA (Panera Bread--$53.14; -0.36; optionable): Eateries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pnra.html
After Hours: $53.14
EARNINGS: 10/27/2009
STATUS: Cup w/handle. PNRA looks to have just about finished its 2.5 week handle to its 14 week cup with handle base. This base is consolidating the run off the March low up to late April, and as the first base off the low that leaves PNRA plenty of room to run. Looking for a solid move up off this handle on some rising volume to give us the buy. Like how volume rallied Tuesday as it tested the 50 day EMA (53.14), the support for the handle, and held.
Volume: 698.917K Avg Volume: 785.155K
BUY POINT: $54.21 Volume=875K Target=$60.95 Stop=$52.31
POSITION: UPA KJ - Nov. $50c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pnra.html
Play Date: 08/11/2009
SMTC (Semtech--$17.00; -0.15; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smtc.html
After Hours: $17.00
EARNINGS: 08/19/2009
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. SMTC is in a continuing uptrend, one of the first to rally off the lows and helped lead the market higher. After a great July surge off of its trendline it is coming back to test, showing a nice, low volume, orderly pullback to the 50 day EMA (16.75). The 50 day EMA has acted as the catalyst to send SMTC higher the last three times it tested it. Looking for something of the same here, and like that little tight doji on Tuesday as it tapped at the 50 day and bounced.
Volume: 208.116K Avg Volume: 690.625K
BUY POINT: $17.65 Volume=850K Target=$20.95 Stop=$16.52
POSITION: QTU LQ - Dec. $17.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/smtc.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/11/2009
AMMD (American Medical Systems--$14.76; -0.07; optionable): Medical Appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ammd.html
After Hours: $14.76
EARNINGS: 11/04/2009
STATUS: Bear flag. AMMD gapped higher on earnings in May and rallied nicely, then it gapped lower in late July. Gap up, gap down. Anyway, AMMD broke through support at 15 in early August. It rebounded the past week to test that former support, showing a doji Tuesday at that level. Nice bear flag, and looking for AMMD to turn down again and give us the buy for the downside play. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 1.162M Avg Volume: 901.697K
BUY POINT: $14.64 Volume=1.2M Target=$12.62 Stop=$15.44
POSITION: FQU WC - Nov. $15p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ammd.html
Play Date: 08/11/2009
DGX (Quest Diagnostics--$53.36; -0.42; optionable): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgx.html
After Hours: $53.36
EARNINGS: 07/21/2009
STATUS: Bear Flag. DGX double topped in July and broke lower to start August, falling through support at 54 and the 50 day EMA (53.79) as well. Rebounded the past week to test those levels, but it is struggling. Tuesday it rallied through those levels but then reversed, closing lower, sporting a tombstone doji. Looking for DGX to continue lower after this test, giving us the buy. A move to the target lands a 38%ish gain.
Volume: 1.333M Avg Volume: 1.408M
BUY POINT: $53.13 Volume=2.1M Target=$50.05 Stop=$54.28
POSITION: DGX WK - Nov. $55p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dgx.html
Play Date: 08/11/2009
MHK (Mohawk--$49.39; -1.64; optionable): Carpeting, building supplies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mhk.html
After Hours: $49.46
EARNINGS: 07/30/2009
STATUS: Reversal. Nice rally in July up to the May peak. Was cruising to that point then worked laterally once it hit August. Looked good still, but then gapped lower Tuesday on rising, average volume. May try to fill the gap up toward 50 (it did that intraday Tuesday) once more, but if it fails there or simply continues lower here we are looking at a downside play. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 1.314M Avg Volume: 1.286M
BUY POINT: $49.21 Volume=1.4M Target=$44.11 Stop=$51.77
POSITION: MHK WJ - Nov. $50p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mhk.html
Play Date: 08/11/2009
PG (Procter & Gamble--$51.93; -0.24; optionable): consumer goods
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pg.html
After Hours: $51.93
EARNINGS: 08/05/2009
STATUS: Rallied through the 200 day SMA (54.33) in July, breaking out of a short 6 week base. Looked pretty solid, working laterally to August ahead of its earnings. Earnings were not kind, however. PG gapped lower through some resistance at 54 and undercut the 50 day EMA (53.23) on strong volume. A very modest rebound this week is setting PG up for a continued run lower. If it continues up we will follow it up and when it turns enter. If it sells from here or after a rise into the FOMC results we will move in. A move to the target lands a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 9.293M Avg Volume: 13.057M
BUY POINT: $51.81 Volume=12M Target=$49.55 Stop=$53.31
POSITION: PG VX - Oct. $52.50p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pg.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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