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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/12/2009
AMG (Affiliated Managers--$67.68; +1.80; optionable): Financial asset management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amg.html
After Hours: $67.68
EARNINGS: 07/29/2009
STATUS: Flag. AMG broke higher from a 10 week trading range in mid-July, its first base off of the March low that was not the low for AMG (that was back in November 2008). AMG then broke higher again on its earnings report to end that month. AMG has come back to test the last sprint higher the past week, testing the 18 day EMA (65.30) on Tuesday and then bouncing Wednesday on a strong shot of above average volume. Closed well off its high, but still like this nice test and looking to move in as AMG continues to bounce off of this test.
Volume: 753.703K Avg Volume: 760.495K
BUY POINT: $68.08 Volume=1M Target=$81.89 Stop=$65.22
POSITION: AMG LM - Dec. $65c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amg.html
Play Date: 08/12/2009
CEDC (Central European District--$30.88; +0.48; optionable): Producer, importer, distributor of alcoholic beverages in Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cedc.html
After Hours: $30.75
EARNINGS: 08/05/2009
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Sweet little 8 week base has formed after the strong run from the March low (the bear market low) into mid-June. Nice pullback using the 50 day EMA (now at 27.42) as support. Nice strong gap higher the first week of August and now an orderly, lower volume test of that move the past week, filling the gap as CEDC tapes and holds the 18 day EMA (29.81). Nice pattern, nice little test at support, and looking for a move higher that holds into the close to give us the entry.
Volume: 702.847K Avg Volume: 1.009M
BUY POINT: $31.11 Volume=1.2M Target=$39.45 Stop=$29.69
POSITION: CUV LF - Dec. $30c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cedc.html
Play Date: 08/12/2009
GTLS (Chart Industries--$21.66; +0.89; optionable): Metal fabrication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gtls.html
After Hours: $21.66
EARNINGS: 07/30/2009
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Another nice little pattern has set up over the past 9 weeks. GTLS formed a big base from December to April, gapping higher on earnings and surging out of that base. Nice run to June and then it needed a rest; the current base is consolidating that move and is just about ready to make the move. A good break higher to start August off the earnings and then a week long test to the 10 day EMA (20.90) through Tuesday. Now we are looking for GTLS to continue the bounce it made on Tuesday to give us the entry. Not going to wait until the last hour if it continues lower.
Volume: 191.013K Avg Volume: 398.722K
BUY POINT: $22.08 Volume=450K Target=$25.95 Stop=$20.36
POSITION: QYK LD - Dec. $20c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gtls.html
New play on a current position:
Play Date: 08/12/2009
INT (World Fuel Service--$45.37; -0.37; optionable): Wholesale fuels
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/int.html
After Hours: $45.37
EARNINGS: 08/06/2009
STATUS: Flag. INT is getting ready to break higher once more as it tests back the past three sessions, tapping at the 10 day EMA (44.85) on the Wednesday low and bouncing back to cut its losses on the session. This test follows a strong move higher for us already, capped by a strong surge last Friday. A nice 8 week base formed on top of a prior peak made in December 2008. Excellent pullback and now looking for a bounce off this near support to give us a new buy point.
Volume: 302.212K Avg Volume: 570.226K
BUY POINT: $45.78 Volume=700K Target=$52.95 Stop=$43.69
POSITION: INT KI - Nov. $45c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/int.html
Downside Plays:
Play Date: 08/12/2009
RHB (Rehabcare Group--$21.76; -0.24; optionable): Hospitals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rhb.html
After Hours: $21.76
EARNINGS: 08/05/2009
STATUS: Bear Flag. RHB was trending along to the upside from May to early August following a strong breakout in early May on its earnings report. All was going well until this last round of earnings. RHB fell like a rock. It broke through the 50 day EMA (now at 22.80) on that plunge. It made an attempt to bounce starting Monday, tapping the 50 day on the Tuesday high before it reversed. MACD is showing a continuing negative divergence. Looking for a continued move lower in RHB to give us the buy. Not going to wait until the last hour if it continues lower.
Volume: 169.941K Avg Volume: 191.162K
BUY POINT: $21.65 Volume=285K Target=$18.12 Stop=$22.94
POSITION: RHB XX - Dec. $22.50p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rhb.html
Play Date: 08/12/2009
VCLK (Valueclick--$10.84; +0.10; optionable): Internet advertising services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vclk.html
After Hours: $11.02
EARNINGS: 08/04/2009
STATUS: Gap test/bear flag. Earnings this time around were not kind to VCLK. After a solid run off the March low into June VCLK started bouncing up and down, trying to consolidate the move but showing a lot of volatility. When earnings came out in early August VCLK gapped lower, gapping below the 50 day EMA (10.90) support level. It rebounded to end last week and on into the current week, but though it trades over the 50 day intraday, it cannot hold the move, fading back to close. Volume was up Wednesday as VCLK tried the move again but was pushed back. A strong earnings gap tends to continue on in the direction of the gap. As VCLK has not filled its gap we are looking for it to continue lower from here. As it sells we will look to move in for the move lower. A run to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 1.244M Avg Volume: 1.194M
BUY POINT: $10.65 Volume=1.4M Target=$8.55 Stop=$11.31
POSITION: QCS XV - Dec. $12.50p (-55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vclk.html
Play Date: 08/12/2009
ZRAN (Zoran--$10.95; +0.32; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zran.html
After Hours: $10.63
EARNINGS: 07/27/2009
STATUS: Umbrella top. ZRAN was one of the early chip leaders, surging off the March low with amazing power. It consolidated that move from April to May and broke higher again. ZRAN trended higher up the 50 day EMA (10.98) into early August, using that level as support. Tuesday ZRAN broke the 50 day. Wednesday it rebounded, but could not hold an intraday move over the 50 day. MACD continues to show a negative divergence. Looking for ZRAN to turn down from here to give us the buy. Want to see it hold a move lower into the last hour before we move in with a buy.
Volume: 531.207K Avg Volume: 811.215K
BUY POINT: $10.76 Volume=900K Target=$9.04 Stop=$11.32
POSITION: ZUO XV - Dec. $12.50c (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/zran.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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