|
|
us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/14/2009
BWA (Borg Warner--$30.26; -0.33; optionable): Auto parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bwa.html
After Hours: $30.26
EARNINGS: 07/29/2009
STATUS: Rolling. BWA is currently in a 9 week Rolling base as it rolls between 30 and 36 from early June to current. It got a great run higher off the March lows into early June to the peak of this rolling range and then tested back to the 50 day EMA at 30.3 in late June to consolidate the move. That set up the first part of the pattern and BWA tested that 30.3 level again in early July and now in early August as it hits the brakes at this level in a 2 week test through the start of the month. It has very solid support here and light volume in the pullback so BWA is set up nicely to get things heading uphill again from here. We will be ready to jump in once it makes the move higher and can stick it to the close.
Volume: 1.16M Avg Volume: 2.038M
BUY POINT: $30.65 Volume=2.5M Target=$35.88 Stop=$29.28
POSITION: BWA JF - Oct. $30c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bwa.html
Play Date: 08/14/2009
EQR (Equity Residential REIT--$27.28; -0.57; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eqr.html
After Hours: $27.28
EARNINGS: 10/28/2009
STATUS: Flag. EQR is working a 1week Flag pullback after surging through early August and late July from 22 to 30. EQR is testing back this week to the 10 day EMA (27.04) and its strong support from the January highs here at 27 as well. It trended higher from March to June, then tested to early July to 19.2 to consolidate the move and set up this current base. Friday EQR showed a nice hammer doji at the 10 day EMA, snapping back intraday to hold that level. That often indicates a pullback is over. Now we sit back and wait on EQR to head and shoulders higher again and make the move stick in the last hour of trade as our cue to enter.
Volume: 4.544M Avg Volume: 5.547M
BUY POINT: $27.91 Volume=6.5M Target=$34.87 Stop=$25.96
POSITION: EQR JE - Oct. $25c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/eqr.html
Play Date: 08/14/2009
KLIC (Kulicke & Soffa--$5.38; -0.17; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/klic.html
After Hours: $5.55
EARNINGS: 07/29/2009
STATUS: Pennant. KLIC is forming a solid 2 week pennant after surging from 3.0 to 6 through July. Nice easy pullback to near support at the 18 day EMA (5.18) this past week. It made a huge move higher from the March low at 1.1 to the 5 dollar mark in late May before testing back to 3.0 to consolidate the move and hold its key May low as support. Set the stage for this breakout through July and now KLIC tests the 18 day EMA, managing to surge off this level Wednesday to 5.51, but the market has since brought it back to its 10 day EMA (5.37) at the close Friday. In any event, KLIC is in great shape here for the buy as it got that Wednesday surge to test the waters and then closed the week with a quick pullback to kiss the 10 day. On a continued move higher that can hold the move into the last hour next week we will enter.
Volume: 968.306K Avg Volume: 815.172K
BUY POINT: $5.58 Volume=1.2M Target=$6.92 Stop=$5.16
POSITION: KQS JA - Oct. $5c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/klic.html
Play Date: 08/14/2009
LTD (The Limited--$14.18; -0.31; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/ltd.html
After Hours: $14.18
EARNINGS: 08/19/2009
STATUS: Flag. LTD spent last week forming a very nice flag after a big surge higher the first week of August. This has formed as a test of the breakout from a 9 week cup base in early August. It trended higher nicely off the March low at 6.3 up into June to 14 before testing back into early July to hold the key 200 day SMA(10.4) as it formed its first base off the March bottom. LTD looks solid here consolidating that July breakout and ready to resume a move higher so watching for LTD to get things going uphill again and hold its move into the close for our buy.
Volume: 3.648M Avg Volume: 4.773M
BUY POINT: $14.23 Volume=5.8M Target=$17.32 Stop=$13.41
POSITION: LTD KV - Nov. $12.50c (84 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ltd.html
Play Date: 08/14/2009
SLT (Sterlite Industries--$13.55; -0.19; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slt.html
After Hours: $13.55
EARNINGS: 11/21/2009
STATUS: Cup w/Handle. SLT is working on a 10 week Cup with Handle base which it started back at the early June peak (14.8) and is currently finishing the handle with the early August pullback. Great run from March to June before hitting resistance at 14.8 from its key highs from August 2008 and then falling into the current base, its first after that March bottom. Like how SLT used the 50 day EMA (11.14 in late June) and the key mid May gap level at 11.5 as support for its Cup and this week it used the 50 day SMA (12.8) as support for the handle. Gapped higher Thursday and is holding over the 10 day EMA (13.3) as it pauses. Looking for a move higher through the buy point that can hold the move into the last hour.
Volume: 1.855M Avg Volume: 2.705M
BUY POINT: $13.92 Volume=3.2M Target=$16.95 Stop=$12.95
POSITION: SLT LV - Dec. $12.50c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/slt.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/14/2009
AMSG (Amsurg Corp.--$19.23; -0.35; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amsg.html
After Hours: $19.58
EARNINGS: 07/23/2009
STATUS: Umbrella Top. AMSG is working on a 10 week topping pattern from early June to this past week. It rallied up into July, but them made something of a double top that month that stalled the trend and turned AMSG to the downside. Broke the key 200 day SMA (19.9) and the July lows at 19.60 this past week, setting up a further downside move. That top at 22.0 was set up nicely by key resistance from the key low of April 2008 and March and August 2007 lows as well as solid resistance sending it lower into this month. AMSG has been bumping its head at key resistance from its 200 day SMA (19.81) all week, but then Friday it sold harder on rising trade, breaking the bottom of its weeklong consolidation. If it continues the strong downside action next week it is a buy. A move to the target lands a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 154.383K Avg Volume: 213.698K
BUY POINT: $19.08 Volume=245K Target=$16.58 Stop=$19.91
POSITION: KKO XD - Dec. $20p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amsg.html
Play Date: 08/14/2009
HCBK (Hudson City Bancorp--$13.84; -0.20; optionable): Savings and Loans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hcbk.html
After Hours: $13.84
EARNINGS: 07/21/2009
STATUS: Double Top. HCBK is in a 5 week Double Top base formed with the early July and early August highs (14.6 and 14.5 respectively) that led to some modest downside for early August. This double top formed after HCBK trended higher from March to July. HCBK made a slightly lower high this past week (14.50) and MACD peaked at a lower level on that second high, showing a weakening of the upside move. Then HCBK tanked Tuesday to the 50 day EMA (13.65) and has consolidated to close the week so HCBK is definitely weakening. We are ready to see this one fall hard if the market makes its move lower. A move to the target lands a 73% gain.
Volume: 5.247M Avg Volume: 8.452M
BUY POINT: $13.58 Volume=9M Target=$11.55 Stop=$14.22
POSITION: KHQ VC - Oct. $15p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hcbk.html
Play Date: 08/14/2009
SCHN (Schnitzer Steel--$52.27; -1.60; optionable): Steel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/schn.html
After Hours: $52.05
EARNINGS: 06/30/2009
STATUS: 61% Fibonacci Retracement. Back on the report as SCHN has continued to set up the downside move. SCHN sold back in late June and early July to start this downside pattern as it gapped lower and fell to support at resistance at 46 from the April peak and other lows and highs at that same point. After holding that level SCHN bounced and recovered, but it could not approach the old peak. Instead it stalled at the 61% Fibonacci to start August and faded again, holding a trendline formed in July. Looks ripe to continue the move lower after failing to take out the 61% retracement level. Looking for a break lower early in the week to give us the buy. Our initial target is the July low (46.28). We take 1/3 or 1/2 of the gain at that point and let the rest ride to see if it breaks that level and then logs some really huge downside gains. A move to the target lands a 54%ish gain.
Volume: 592.351K Avg Volume: 807.131K
BUY POINT: $52.09 Volume=850K Target=$47.11 Stop=$54.65
POSITION: SQQ UK - Sept. $55p (-56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/schn.html
Play Date: 08/14/2009
SMH (Semiconductor Holders Trust--$24.55; -0.47; optionable)
After Hours: $24.55
STATUS: Bear Reversal. SMH is setting up for a potential reversal here if the large cap indices are unable to hold their August trading ranges. Strong surge in July that peaked in early August. Tested to the 18 day EMA (24.39) through Monday and then tried a bounce, moving up Thursday on very low, below average volume. Friday SMH gapped lower and sold on high volume. This is a classic reversal signal and we just need to see if SMH continues down from here. A move to the target lands a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 16.318M Avg Volume: 13.172M
BUY POINT: $24.35 Volume=15M Target=$22.32 Stop=$25.22
POSITION: SMH WE - Nov. $25p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/smh.html
CONTINUING PLAYS READY TO MOVE
Play Date: 08/13/2009
PNC (PNC Finanical--$41.85; -0.69; optionable): Banking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pnc.html
After Hours: $41.85
EARNINGS: 07/23/2009
STATUS: Quiet session of losses for PNC Friday with a doji step downhill on the session back to this early August testing low as it made a nice pullback this week to the 40.0 mark. PNC got some nice help from solid supports at 40 from the 200 day SMA(40.3) and 90 day SMA(40.26), and its late June highs as well so it is looking pretty eager to get that late July/early August surge higher going again out of this nice kiss at the 200 day SMA this week. We will be ready for the buy on a continued move higher that holds into the close. To Recap: PNC showing a strong 3 week Trend Reversal as it broke higher through late June and early August and pierced the key 200 day SMA (41.20). Started the downtrend off its early May high in the low 50s until it hit its low in July at support from its February and March highs to set up for the reversal. Just a classic setup for a great buy as PNC did a great job breaking its key 200 day SMA (41.2) in the early August surge higher and then just kissed the key moving average at 40.0 Wednesday and bounced Thursday for some modest gains. It is a buy on a continued move higher.
Volume: 3.851M Avg Volume: 7.28M
BUY POINT: $42.76 Volume=8M Target=$51.95 Stop=$39.77
POSITION: PZH KH - Nov. $40c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pnc.html
Play Date: 08/07/2009
UTHR (United Therapeutics--$91.38; -0.37; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uthr.html
After Hours: $91.38
EARNINGS: 07/31/2009
STATUS: Friday UTHR made a quiet step laterally along its August testing low here at 90.0 as it just took the day off and held strong supports from its 18 day EMA(90.27) and the key lows from October 08 at 89.95. Has made a great test through the early portion of August to this level now and will be ready for the buy soon once volume swings around to give it a lift. To Recap: UTHR blasted off in late July, clearing a 7 week trading range/flat base, its second base off the bear market lows. Unlike many stocks, UTHR bottomed in November; a bit of strength others didn't have. Anyway, UTHR is looking very good, and the test of the breakout here in early August brought it back to near support at the 10 day EMA (91.52) where it held, showing a tight doji. In super position for a run back up to 100 and beyond.
Volume: 175.217K Avg Volume: 680.731K
BUY POINT: $92.38 Volume=875K Target=$103.94 Stop=$88.82
POSITION: FUH KR - Nov. $90c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/uthr.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/11/2009
AMMD (American Medical Systems--$14.64; -0.34; optionable): Medical Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ammd.html
After Hours: $14.64
EARNINGS: 11/04/2009
STATUS: AMMD finally saw some modest downsides through Friday after a week of testing up to the 15.0 mark at strong resistance from the 10 day EMA(14.9) and June and July lows. It turned lower nicely Friday with the market and broke its 90 day SMA(14.78) on the way down which is key because it followed the 90 day higher in this early August test to that 15.0 level. AMMD getting going lower nicely Friday and on higher volume in the move as well so it is a buy on a continued move lower. To Recap: AMMD was trending higher until it was downgraded late in July. It gapped lower and broke through the 50 day EMA (15.48) in that move. It held at some support at 15 at the close of July, but broke it with ease to start out August after surging early up to next resistance at 16. So far testing very nicely in early August to that 15 level as resistance and setting up a great buy. A move to the target lands a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 1.109M Avg Volume: 893.82K
BUY POINT: $14.64 Volume=1.2M Target=$12.62 Stop=$15.44
POSITION: FQU WC - Nov. $15p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ammd.html
Play Date: 08/13/2009
IM (Ingram Micro--$16.49; +0.17; optionable): Wholesale Computers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/im.html
After Hours: $16.49
EARNINGS: 07/30/2009
STATUS: IM continues to consolidate along this August low at 16.5ish here thanks to support from its 90 day SMA(16.34) and the June lows at 16.17. After that late July gap lower from 18.0 down to 17.0 IM has just been catching its breath and in that gap it broke the key uptrend line from its May to July run and hasn't even bothered trying to fill in that gap so ready to fall lower to 14.0 with ease from here. On a continued move lower we will jump in on IM. To Recap: IM is working laterally in a 2 week lateral move after gapping lower to end July on its earnings report. Hard gap lower on earnings that broke key support at 17.0 from its July lows, 50 day EMA (17), and most importantly the uptrend line in its March to July run. Major change of character for IM as it jumped over that level in a single day and made no effort to refill it. That sets it up to fall hard toward the 14.0 level with ease. Also worth noting that IM has a considerable MACD divergence going against the highs of June and July which helps stack the deck for some downsides here as well. Consolidating some more along the 16-17 dollar range for early August and today sold hard on higher volume so very high probability of this one heading lower so ready to jump in a continued move downhill. A move to the target lands a 47%ish gain.
Volume: 1.953M Avg Volume: 2.071M
BUY POINT: $16.18 Volume=2M Target=$14.15 Stop=$17.11
POSITION: IM XW - Dec. $17.50p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/im.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trend trading stock
|
