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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/18/2009
EMS (Emergency Medical Services--$42.93; +0.46; optionable): Medical services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ems.html
EARNINGS: 08/03/2009
STATUS: Flag. EMS is working in a solid 2 week Flag consolidation as it tested through last week off the early August high surge to the high at 43.1, trying the rebound this week. It made an impressive run from the March low at 28.0 to the early May high at 36 before testing back to 30 in late May to consolidate the move and set up for the steady run higher from June to July that lead to that early August breakout and now the Flag. After landing at the 10 day EMA (42.14) last week it is now trying to get going higher again as EMS made a nice bounce Tuesday but volume was lower so will need to see it pull out higher volume as it starts to rally uphill again to give us the buy.
Volume: 171.101K Avg Volume: 221.869K
BUY POINT: $43.05 Volume=335K Target=$49.75 Stop=$41.21
POSITION: EMS LH - Dec. $40c (64 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ems.html
Play Date: 08/18/2009
PVH (Phillips-Van Heusen--$34.86; +0.52; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pvh.html
After Hours: $34.93
EARNINGS: 08/19/2009
STATUS: Pennant. PVH is looking solid into August as it works in a 3 week Pennant base with this steady pullback to the 18 day EMA (34.07) now into this week and it even managed a decent bounce Tuesday. It trended higher off the March low into June setting up a strong, 5 week Double bottom w/handle base that lead perfectly into this Pennant as the test. This week it is trying a rebound and has rising above average volume as it jumped through its 10 day EMA (34.6) Tuesday so if it can keep up the positive action and hold the move into the close we will enter.
Volume: 1.104M Avg Volume: 984.392K
BUY POINT: $34.98 Volume=1.2M Target=$41.94 Stop=$32.89
POSITION: PVH LG - Dec. $35c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pvh.html
Play Date: 08/18/2009
SHW (Sherwin-Williams--$60.72; +0.70; optionable): Paints, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shw.html
After Hours: $60.72
EARNINGS: 07/21/2009
STATUS: Reverse Head Shoulders/Flag. SHW is in a large Reverse Head and Shoulders from September 2008 to late July 2009, and is now testing a breakout from that base, showing a flag through August back to the 18 day EMA (59.51). The first shoulder of this mammoth of a base is from the late 2008 lows before it surged up to the low 60s at the end of the year. It then gapped well lower in January and sold to the March lows at 44 to make the head, ran higher and peaked in early May, and made a long, 10 week pullback as its right shoulder at support at 52 from its May and December 08 low. From there it really took off, making it to the 62 dollar mark and now it is making its bounce off the nice, steady pullback through early August to the 18 day EMA Monday (59.37) that is the Flag. SHW bounced on slightly lower volume Tuesday but posted modest gains nonetheless. However, it will need much stronger trade to keep this move going and give us the buy so have to wait patiently for SHW to get to work here and let us in.
Volume: 1.107M Avg Volume: 1.639M
BUY POINT: $60.98 Volume=2M Target=$69.95 Stop=$58.68
POSITION: SHW LL - Dec. $60c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/shw.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/18/2009
FCX (Freeport McMoran--$60.47; +1.11; optionable): Copper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcx.html
After Hours: $60.76
EARNINGS: 07/21/2009
STATUS: Island Reversal. FCX is currently working a strong 2 week island reversal base with that early August gap up from 60 to 62 and then the gap back down from that level this Monday. It made impressive gains from the December 08 lows at 15.3 to the June highs at 60 before getting its first considerable test back to the 90 day SMA in early July at 45.0. It then reset for the move higher and climbed into early August with that first gap up to the "island", but broke the move down this week as it gapped lower over key support at 60 from its June and July highs, which it also gapped up and over at the start of August. That level is key and FCX is now holding it as resistance Tuesday after a quiet bounce higher with the market on fading below average volume which means it will likely be resuming lower and after that Monday gap to leave the "island" this base can really bring FCX down here as it tends to trend away from its island. FCX setting up to really get going downhill and when it does we can enter if volume is stronger and it holds the move into the close. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 13.178M Avg Volume: 18.027M
BUY POINT: $59.97 Volume=19M Target=$53.11 Stop=$61.11
POSITION: FCX WL - Nov. $60p (-42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fcx.html
Play Date: 08/18/2009
SPY (S&P Depository Receipts--$99.09; +0.78; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spy.html
After Hours: $99.33
STATUS: Rollover. SPY looks ready to roll over as it sets up for some more downside after stalling at key resistance from its October and November 08 closing highs last week. This week it gapped and bumped up against the 18 day EMA (98.97) as resistance. Trended higher from March lows to the early August highs and now is starting to break down. SPY made a quiet bounce higher with the market on lower volume Tuesday to hold at the 18 day as it was unable to retake prior support from that moving average so this is a pretty key sign for some more downsides to follow. We will be ready to jump in on SPY once it rolls lower on stronger volume. This is quite a nice setup for SPY as the play is a put option to 95 which can make us some great money. A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 173.461M Avg Volume: 212.082M
BUY POINT: $98.94 Volume=225M Target=$95.03 Stop=$99.82
POSITION: SWG VU - Oct. $99p -49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/spy.html
Play Date: 08/18/2009
URS (URS Corp.--$47.52; -0.33; optionable): Engineering Services to Power, Infrastructure and other Markets
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urs.html
After Hours: $47.52
EARNINGS: 08/12/2009
STATUS: Bear Flag. URS is in a nice 1 week Bear Flag bounce up from the selling as it tests the gap lower from last week, bumping its head and shoulders at its 50 day EMA (48.32). URS trended higher off the March low up into early June before testing to consolidate the move as it landed at 45 at the 90 day SMA as support with the April highs in early July. From there it went back on its way higher but this time in the move it found key resistance in early August at 51 from 2007 at the December lows and June highs. That resistance started it lower into mid August where it gapped down last week to the 90 day SMA (47.2 last Thursday) which is the pole for this Bear Flag and has since been making a nice, steady test up to 48 at the 50 day where it sold pretty nicely Tuesday. If URS can keep the downsides going from here and break the 90 day SMA (47.36) on stronger volume we will enter. A move to the target lands a 49%ish gain.
Volume: 1.131M Avg Volume: 1.146M
BUY POINT: $47.38 Volume=1.4M Target=$43.24 Stop=$48.43
POSITION: URS VJ - Oct. $50p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/urs.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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