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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/19/2009
BABY (Natus Medical--$13.89; +0.09; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/baby.html
After Hours: $13.89
EARNINGS: 07/30/2009
STATUS: Pennant. BABY gapped higher just ahead of earnings, clearing a 10 week ascending base formed after the January to April trading range as BABY found bottom. A good pair of consolidations and then the gap higher heading into earnings. Like how it has held the gap, refusing to give up any ground. A gap such as this that clears resistance along the way tends to continue on in the direction of the gap. Thus we are looking for a good upside session from BABY that holds into the last hour/close to give us the entry point.
Volume: 162.336K Avg Volume: 220.874K
BUY POINT: $14.03 Volume=335K Target=$16.92 Stop=$13.36
POSITION: QBU JV - Oct. $12.50c (68 delta) or QBU AV - Jan. $12.50c (66 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/baby.html
Play Date: 08/19/2009
BBBB (Blackboard--$35.58; +0.35; optionable): Multimedia graphics software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbbb.html
After Hours: $35.58
EARNINGS: 08/05/2009
STATUS: Pennant. Nice break higher in early August as BBBB cleared a 12 week base, making a new post selloff high. Strong surge on volume as earnings were solid. As with many strong stocks it has come back to test, holding the breakout and support over the late April peak. Excellent position to continue the run higher.
Volume: 172.993K Avg Volume: 312.346K
BUY POINT: $35.69 Volume=425K Target=$40.95 Stop=$34.18
POSITION: BPU AG - Jan. $35c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bbbb.html
Play Date: 08/19/2009
BLKB (Blackbaud--$18.79; +0.38; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blkb.html
After Hours: $18.79
EARNINGS: 07/30/2009
STATUS: Flag. Big breakout in late July propelled by earnings that took BLKB out of a very jagged 11 week trading range that formed off the March low and rally through April. Blasted to a new post-March high on the move and is now testing nicely, coming back to support at 18 from back in July and August of 2008. Very solid and plenty of room upside to make us a very nice gain.
Volume: 133.629K Avg Volume: 190.335K
BUY POINT: $18.88 Volume=240K Target=$21.92 Stop=$17.78
POSITION: QDO LW - Dec. $17.50c (65 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/blkb.html
Play Date: 08/19/2009
IBOC (International Bancshares--$14.75; -0.18; optionable): Regional banks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iboc.html
After Hours: $14.75
EARNINGS: 08/04/2009
STATUS: Breakout test. IBOC is in a two week pennant, consolidating the early August breakout form a 12 week cup with handle base. That was IBOC's first base off of the March low, and that leaves some room to run. Like how IBOC broke through the 200 day SMA (14.37) on that move and is now holding that on the test. Nice quiet action on the pullback after good volume on the breakout and run higher. Ready to move in as IBOC breaks higher and holds the move into the close.
Volume: 412.738K Avg Volume: 535.692K
BUY POINT: $15.02 Volume=650K Target=$19.65 Stop=$14.02
POSITION: MQB KC - Nov. $15c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/iboc.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/19/2009
AMZN (Amazon.com--$83.00; +0.88; optionable): Internet retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amzn.html
After Hours: $83.05
EARNINGS: 07/23/2009
STATUS: Bear Flag. AMZN gapped lower Monday, breaking below the 50 day EMA (83.17) and out of its attempt at a lateral consolidation. This lateral move formed after AMZN gapped ahead of earnings and then was hammered lower on those results; it could not live up to expectations. Tuesday and Wednesday AMZN rebounded to test, but volume was lower and Wednesday it closed at the 50 day. If the market cannot maintain this rebound AMZN is ready to turn back down. Thus we are looking for a move down from here that holds into the last hour to give us the buy. A move to the target lands a 52%ish gain.
Volume: 5.173M Avg Volume: 6.899M
BUY POINT: $82.62 Volume=7.5M Target=$75.58 Stop=$83.29
POSITION: QZN VQ - Oct. $95p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amzn.html
Play Date: 08/19/2009
CUB (Cubic Corp.--$37.68; +0.33; optionable): Technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cub.html
After Hours: $37.68
EARNINGS: 08/05/2009
STATUS: Double Top. CUB gapped lower Monday from a short double top spanning July and ealry August. It made a new high on that double top move but as it did MACD was making lower peaks and volume frankly was weak on the second peak. Classic signs of trouble. After the Monday gap through the 50 day EMA (37.97) CUB bounced but it failed to break through the 50 day Wednesday after kissing it intraday. Bearish look to it and on a move back down that holds into the close is our buy signals. A move to the target lands a 47%ish gain.
Volume: 119.248K Avg Volume: 192.988K
BUY POINT: $37.41 Volume=250K Target=$33.38 Stop=$38.11
POSITION: CUB VH - Oct. $40p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cub.html
Play Date: 08/19/2009
JNPR (Juniper Networks--$23.68; -0.34; optionable): Networking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnpr.html
After Hours: $24.02
EARNINGS: 07/23/2009
STATUS: Island Reversal. Gapped up in July ahead of earnings. Rallied up to earnings then started to pullback on the results. It continued the pullback through last week but held the 50 day EMA (24.29). That formed something of a 5 week umbrella top, but there was hope given it held the 50 day. Monday the 50 day gave it up with a gap lower. That means JNPR formed a bearish island, and that typically leads to more downside. It was down Wednesday as the market was up; if it continues lower from here we move in for the next leg lower. A move to the target lands us a 55%ish gain.
Volume: 8.842M Avg Volume: 10.916M
BUY POINT: $23.54 Volume=12M Target=$21.51 Stop=$24.48
POSITION: JUX VS - Oct. $24p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jnpr.html
Play Date: 08/19/2009
OMG (OM Group--$29.39; +0.41; optionable): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/omg.html
After Hours: $29.38
EARNINGS: 08/06/2009
STATUS: Head and Shoulders. OMG broke higher in July from a 10 week triangle and rallied quite nicely into early August. Then it announced earnings and the bottom fell out. it sold to the 50 day EMA (30) in one move. Then it spent the next week trying to rebound. Not bad, but then it gapped lower Monday below the 50 day and Wednesday its attempt at recovering that level failed rather horribly. That gave OMG a weak right shoulder and that can indicate a pretty severe move lower. May try to test the 50 day again Thursday before it turns over; an even better buy point. Looking for OMG to turn back down and hold the move to give us the entry. A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 165.972K Avg Volume: 374.323K
BUY POINT: $28.95 Volume=400K Target=$24.91 Stop=$30.15
POSITION: OMG XF - Dec. $30p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/omg.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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