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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/20/2009
BPO (Brookfield Properties--$10.86; +0.57; optionable): Property Management and development services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bpo.html
After Hours: $10.86
EARNINGS: 10/21/2009
STATUS: Flag. BPO is bouncing off the 2 week flag from early August that tested the breakout from the 2.5 month base from May to July. This week it started out with a hard gap lower to support from its 18 day EMA (9.8) and the key lows from mid-October 2008 at 9.7. Solid test and good bounce higher. BPO gapped and held the 10 day EMA (10.32) Tuesday, rested Wednesday, and Thursday posted a solid move higher off the moving average for strong gains. If it can keep up this positive action from Thursday we will enter.
Volume: 5.088M Avg Volume: 4.248M
BUY POINT: $10.95 Volume=4.8M Target=$13.95 Stop=$9.97
POSITION: BPO LB - Dec. $10c (58 delta, wide spread) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bpo.html
Play Date: 08/20/2009
HNT (Healthnet--$15.13; +0.13; optionable): Health care plans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hnt.html
After Hours: $15.11
EARNINGS: 08/04/2009
STATUS: Trend reversal. HNT is working on a solid 3 week trend reversal as it breaks the downtrend formed by its May and June 2009 highs. It broke the level in early August at about 13.7 with a gap higher and hasn't looked back since then as it continues higher into this week. It started off the week with a nice move higher off its 90 day SMA (14.57) before testing back to the moving average into Wednesday and then bouncing again. Thursday it is back at that Monday high (15.1) and on fading low volume so need to see HNT pick up stronger volume from here as it tries to get this base moving uphill so we can get in.
Volume: 824.726K Avg Volume: 2.713M
BUY POINT: $15.19 Volume=3.5M Target=$18.45 Stop=$14.13
POSITION: HNT AC - Jan. $15c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hnt.html
Play Date: 08/20/2009
TIBX (Tibco Software--$9.21; +0.02; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tibx.html
After Hours: $9.21
EARNINGS: 06/25/2009
STATUS: Gap test. TIBX gapped sharply higher in early August, clearing a 12 month base on the move and the key August 2008 peak that started the decline. A bit volatile the past two weeks but holding the breakout range nice. The pattern is tightening the past three sessions as volume dries up at the 10 day EMA (9.14). Just waiting for a break higher that holds into the close to give us the buy.
Volume: 1.662M Avg Volume: 2.853M
BUY POINT: $9.34 Volume=3.2M Target=$11.94 Stop=$8.79
POSITION: PAV KU - Nov. $7.50c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tibx.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/20/2009
AAP (Advance Auto Parts--$43.09; -0.63; optionable): Auto parts stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aap.html
After Hours: $43.27
EARNINGS: 11/11/2009
STATUS: Bear flag. Auto parts stores have done well given the recession, but not all is roses. AAP announced earnings a week back and they gapped it lower from its post-March high, moving through the 50 day EMA (44.17)_ and key tops form April and June in the same move. It has held up since, but has made no attempt to move higher. A gap through key support tends to continue on in that direction, particularly when it moves through key support levels. This we are looking for AAP to move lower, and as it was down Thursday on rising trade all we need to see is more downside early to give us the buy. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 2.125M Avg Volume: 1.759M
BUY POINT: $42.89 Volume=2.2M Target=$38.85 Stop=$44.22
POSITION: AAP XI - Dec. $45p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aap.html
Play Date: 08/20/2009
PFWD (Phase Forward--$13.10; +0.01; optionable): Business management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfwd.html
After Hours: $13.10
EARNINGS: 07/27/2009
STATUS: Bear flag. After dumping lower in August (unlike many stocks), PFWD rebounded the past week, coming up for some air. It has found the 10 day EMA (13.11) and stalled there the past three sessions. That level is also the July low and the May low as well. Pretty thick ice. Now this could have been an ABCD pattern that sent PFWD higher, but it was too deep in the test, and there is a serious MACD divergence. Looking for PFWD to turn back down here and make another lower high and lower low on this trend lower. A move to the target lands a 46%ish gain.
Volume: 236.106K Avg Volume: 411.706K
BUY POINT: $12.92 Volume=525K Target=$10.66 Stop=$13.55
POSITION: UTO VC - Oct. $15p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pfwd.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
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