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Begin Part 2 of 2

THE PLAYS:

Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information. A "prior high" refers to the high at the start of a base.
For conserving space on listings of stop losses, the symbol (7%) indicates that the stop is 7% below the buy point.

Stocks from Tuesday's report:
URBN: What looked like a nice move Tuesday degraded into selling on high volume. Trying to hold near the 18 day MVA, just below which the stock closed. **check news
AIRM: Pulled off its high but still posted a gain after the bounce from the 18 day MVA.
SVM: Nice breakout! Caught this one just in time.
OEX: Nice bounce (+22.40) and a close just above the 18 day MVA on strong volume. Holding positions for now.

Good moves: SVM, ADBE

Continued Plays:
ACAT: Double bottom with handle, but needs some more consolidation in the handle.
ADBE: Super move from the software stock today! Broke resistance on strong volume, clearing its recent consolidation.
ASL: Testing its recent pretty run with a lower volume pullback and doji.
DLTR: Nice flying plateau.
LBIX: Retracement of Tuesday's gain on the flat base breakout.
MEOH: Watching it for another 50 day MVA bounce.
NUE: Made it over the 18 and 50 day MVAs but on low volume (put).
PEGS: Looks ready to try another move off of support; 18 day MVA after a test of the 50 day MVA, and volume blasted above average. Not a great pattern, but interesting action.
PHTN: Trying to recover after the put play, but just may set back up for another downfall.
PLB: Flying plateau (lateral movement on decreasing volume).
PPD: Trying to move up in the handle to a short cup base.
RPM: In the handle to its three-month cup.
UNTD: Nice pop from the 18 day MVA region, volume still below average but rising.
WM: Looking nice in the big cup with handle base (at support in the handle).

Best Plays:
1) CAO: A tight pattern.
2) AXP: Bouncing nicely!
3) JDAS: May hit resistance sooner than some others (put).

New plays:

CAO (Csk Auto Corp--$15.00; -0.12; optionable): Auto parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cao.html
STATUS: Flag. Money moving into tech stocks allowed others to form up better in already decent patterns. Testing the recent run up from its 50 day MVA that began in early April, CAO is moving in the pattern which is a lateral price movement on decreasing volume after the strong volume on the run up. The stock has had some stray intraday highs and lows (tapped the 10 day MVA on today's low at 14.50) but overall the pattern is very tight with little difference between opening and closing prices the last several days. We are looking for a move over recent highs (15.65) on another upsurge in volume. CAO threw another flag in late April to complete the move up to this next one. We would see 3-4 thrown before the stock is done; CAO broke out of a flat base in early April before throwing the first flag. Volume: 252K (avg. 152K). High money flow.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 15.55 on volume in the range of 300K or more. Target=21
Stop=14.40
POSITION: Stock and/or August 12.50c to buy (CAO HV; delta 0.81; low OI). Focusing on options for better leverage.

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cao.html

AXP (American Express--$42.70; +2.04; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/axp.html
STATUS: Breakaway gap off 50 day MVA. Financial stocks enjoyed the rally today; AXP reversed its recent downtrend (from the April high at 43.88) in a good-looking move up from the support after selling down to that level the last three days. Volume wasn't quite where we would want it, coming in a bit lower at 5.08 million (avg. 5.3 million) but we will look for that to improve as the bounce gains momentum. A look at the bigger chart shows a cup base of nearly a year, showing good accumulation (9 up weeks on rising volume versus 5 down weeks on rising volume), and this bounce is the beginning of a move up in the handle. More than half of the base is below the 200 day MVA, which isn't the best positioning, but we like the looks of this move in the latter stages. Relative strength is ahead of price, and money flow is turning up.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 42.90 on volume of 6 million or higher. Breakout: 43.53 on volume in the range of 8 million or better. Target=52. Stop=40.50
POSITION: Stock and/or October 40c to buy (AXP FH; delta=0.78)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/axp.html

FRED (Fred's--$38.78; 0.00; optionable): Discount and variety stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fred.html
STATUS: 18 day MVA bounce. FRED has made a couple of good bounces from support recently, first the 50 day MVA in early April, then the 18 day MVA later the same month. It ran to the May high (40.70) before testing back to the 18 day MVA once again in a Tuesday tap at the support on the intraday low (the MVA is at 38.04) and Wednesday settled in with a doji just above the 10 day MVA (38.67). Volume has been falling on the pullback, down to 158,400 (avg.338K), so the stock is showing good price/volume action. After the 50 day MVA test and break of resistance at the 38 level (March and April tops, and we note that the stock is holding above that), FRED likely has energy for 2 or 3 more bounces at least. Typically offering from 4-6 points on the moves, we will focus on options for greater leverage on the potential investment.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 39.50 on volume of 350K or higher. Target=44 (initial). Stop=37
POSITION: Stock and/or August 35c to buy (FMU HG; delta=0.73)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/fred.html

Put:

JDAS (Jda Software--$27.14; +2.95; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jdas.html
STATUS: Put, kiss good-bye. After a good thrashing Tuesday when the stock fell to a low at 23.10 (the 200 day MVA is at 22.08), JDAS bounced back in the rally today, moving toward some resistance at the 28 range (the level of several prices dotting January through early April). Volume was lower; we saw this with many stocks that responded to the tech rally (950,200; avg. 649K), and that is setting many of them up for a fall if, as we believe, the move runs out of steam. JDAS can continue up to 28ish, then we will look for the fall.
BUY POINT: Kiss good-bye: 27 on preferably rising volume. Target=22 (200 day MVA). Stop=29.25
POSITION: July $35p to buy (QAH SG; delta= -0.85).

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/jdas.html

PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.

THE LEADERS: DGX, FRX, LLL, MIK. New: ICUI; RMCI, and JNC.

JNC (John Nuveen Co--59.70; +1.20): We are adding JNC to the portfolio tonight; it has been a leading stock for a long time and looks like it is starting another leg up this week. After testing the 50 day MVA in late March, the stock pulled back to the 18 day MVA from where it bounced Tuesday, and today just topped previous highs on a rise in volume.

ICUI (39.99; +1.53): Bounced back from the 18 day MVA, where it closed Tuesday and tested on the low today. Volume remained below average and fell further to very low levels. Still will need some recovery time after Monday's steep fall; it is too volatile right now.

UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: BBBY, SRCL

BBBY (35.40; -0.20): Tapped the 50 day MVA on the low after breaking below the 18 day MVA on Tuesday. Volume was high and the stock bounced, but did not clear the 18 day on the move. It closed just under the highs in the flat base.

SRCL (73.41; +1.08): Remains above the upper channel line in the uptrend and stretched higher Wednesday despite lower volume. Still looking ripe for a pullback. We are looking for a test of the 10 day MVA at the 70 range.

MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CSCO, SEBL, EMLX, BRCM, HDI, BRCD, BUD, AMGN, WMT, ORCL, HB, NOC

CSCO (16.27; +3.19): Blasted above its 50 day MVA on big volume, but remains below the 200 day MVA (just over 17). Many tech stocks looked like this today; some did not even make it over resistance levels, but those that did may not be able to follow through since patterns are either ill-formed or non-existent. Examples of techs that moved up but are at or near resistance are EMLX, BRCD, AMGN, SEBL.

HB (63.62; +1.62): Nice bounce from the 50 day MVA on a rise in volume. The stock closed right at its 18 day MVA, so we will see if the stock holds the position for a bounce. April highs represent resistance at the 66 range.

WMT (56.39; +1.38): Gapped up over the 200 day MVA but again, remains below upper resistance at the 18 day MVA. Volume high but lower, and the stock showed a doji. We will see if it can hold above the 200 day.

BRCM (24.72; -5.22): Tanked on news that the company lost a contract to a competitor. This is the breakdown move in the descending wedge; target is 15.

HB (62.00; -1.02): Tested the 50 day MVA as expected, and is holding one cent above that support. Volume is rising, though, and that doesn't look good unless the stock can continue to rebound off the intraday low of 61.50, which it did today. If it breaks, it can fall to potential support at 60.

NOC (121.61; +2.14): Holding support for a slight bounce from the 10 day. Volume keeps falling below average, but the stock looks good as it remains above the highs in the ascending wedge pattern. Gathering for another move up.

BUD (51.63; -1.46): Sold down from the get-go in a strong volume drop to the 50 day MVA; no news to explain the fall.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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