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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/22/2009
ANSS (Ansys--$35.91; +0.51; optionable): Technical software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anss.html
After Hours: $35.91
EARNINGS: 08/06/2009
STATUS: Breakout test pennant. ANSS gapped higher the first week of August, propelled by strong earnings. That move broke it out of an 8 week base, the first real base formed off the surge off ANSS' V bottom March low. Strong breakout and it is holding the move with this two week pullback to test the move. The 10 day EMA (35.50) caught up with it last week and that is often the catalyst for the next upside move. On a continued move higher we can move on in.
Volume: 661.741K Avg Volume: 715.478K
BUY POINT: $36.02 Volume=775K Target=$41.95 Stop=$34.58
POSITION: QUS JG - Oct. $35c (54 delta) or QUS AG - Jan. $35c (52 delta, wider spread) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/anss.html
Play Date: 08/22/2009
LINE (Linn Energy--$21.65; +0.26; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/line.html
After Hours: $21.50
EARNINGS: 08/06/2009
STATUS: Pennant. This is a new one for us. LINE IPO'ed in 2006. It bottomed earlier in then 2008 selloff, finding its lows in October and December. Trended higher since and most recently broke out from a 2 month base spanning June and July, rallying to the first of August, then starting the current test. This is a good test; LINE came back in early August to tap 21 and rebounded intraday. It tested that level to end last week and again rebounded off the low. This time the 50 day EMA (20.68) was closer and Friday LINE jumped smartly back up on volume. It has shown upside volume other than expiration Friday as well. Like this pop off this same level and looking for LINE to continue this move to give us the buy. Not bad at all.
Volume: 1.862M Avg Volume: 1.308M
BUY POINT: $21.88 Volume=1.8M Target=$25.95 Stop=$20.55
POSITION: QGJ AD - Jan. $20c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/line.html
Play Date: 08/22/2009
LNN (Lindsay Corp.--$45.13; +1.29; optionable): Irrigation systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lnn.html
After Hours: $45.13
EARNINGS: 07/01/2009
STATUS: Cup w/handle Breakout Test. LNN is in a nice test of its early to mid August breakout from an eleven week Cup hdl base. After trending higher from March to early May it started its pullback to the July low at 30.0 as the bottom of its Cup in the base. LNN tested back to the 10 day EMA (42.08) this week and bounced Thursday and Friday back to the high of this breakout. It has rising now above average volume as well so if it can keep up the strong, positive action next week we are in. This stock is being 'discovered' and could be a stock that we play over and over again.
Volume: 344.105K Avg Volume: 305.029K
BUY POINT: $45.61 Volume=450K Target=$52.75 Stop=$42.54
POSITION: NRR LI - Dec. $45c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/lnn.html
Play Date: 08/22/2009
NVTL (Novatel Wireless--$10.14; +0.20; optionable): Software, telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvtl.html
After Hours: $10.14
EARNINGS: 07/30/2009
STATUS: Cup w/handle. This is a really nice base that has set up, NVTL's second off of its low hit in December 2008. The current 12 week base tried to breakout at the end of July on earnings but it gapped and reversed the same day. It held the pattern together, however, and kept on working it. Nice three week handle has formed at the 10 and 18 day EMA (10) with a tightening range. A pretty picture and looking for this pinch-off of the handle to yield a nice breakout. Looking to pick up some positions as NVLT moves higher over the down trendline formed from the late July peak the Thursday high.
Volume: 551.02K Avg Volume: 699.972K
BUY POINT: $10.36 Volume=900K Target=$12.44 Stop=$9.63
POSITION: NVU LB - Dec. $10c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nvtl.html
Play Date: 08/22/2009
TITN (Titan Machinery--$13.12; +0.44; optionable): Agriculture and Construction Equipment Stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/titn.html
After Hours: $13.12
EARNINGS: 06/09/2009
STATUS: Cup. Taking another shot at TITN as it works on a 10 week base. After selling back in the first part of the base it has now formed an 8 week ascending triangle. A nice trend higher from March to mid June, now finally testing back to the 90 day SMA in early July at 11.07 to start this solid Triangle base. This week TITN bounced off the 50 day EMA (12.21 Wednesday) and 90 day SMA (12.06) to surge into the weekend on rising below average volume so if it can continue on higher next week it is a buy.
Volume: 156.439K Avg Volume: 322.661K
BUY POINT: $13.31 Volume=450K Target=$16.68 Stop=$12.38
POSITION: QTD LV - Dec. $12.50c (58 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/titn.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/22/2009
BKE (Buckle, Inc.--$27.06; +0.22; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bke.html
After Hours: $27.06
EARNINGS: 11/19/2009
STATUS: Back on the report as BKE gapped on its earnings, then tried to gap back up Thursday with the rest of retail. It could not hold the move and was pushed right back down and below the 200 day SMA (27.52) for a loss on the session. Tried again Friday with another gap but that one failed as well. That gap is holding with the sellers selling every time it makes a bounce higher. So, if BKE sells further we are looking at a downside run to the February consolidation range from 22 to 24. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 1.45M Avg Volume: 1.4M
BUY POINT: $26.77 Volume=1.8M Target=$24.02 Stop=$28.08
POSITION: BKE VF - Oct. $30p (59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bke.html
Play Date: 08/22/2009
NVLS (Novellus Systems--$17.52; +0.10; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvls.html
After Hours: $17.52
EARNINGS: 07/13/2009
STATUS: Bear Flag. NVLS is in a nicely formed 2 week Bear flag as it tests the hard selling from early August back to the Monday low at 16.6. It trended higher in a Double Bottom of sorts up to 20 from May to late July before breaking down from the April 08, and September 08 lows to lead into that landslide of selling through August. Now it is consolidating that move as it tested up to the 10 day EMA (17.5) through this week and closed at the moving average Friday with a tight doji. This is a great setup for the move lower and once it gets going downhill again on stronger volume we will enter. This could ultimately form an upside ABCD pattern, but we are playing the leg lower and will take what the play gives us. Have to watch 16 as some support but looking for a run down to the 200 day SMA to give us a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 3.823M Avg Volume: 3.975M
BUY POINT: $17.46 Volume=4.5M Target=$15.55 Stop=$17.91
POSITION: NLQ XW - Dec. $17.50p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nvls.html
Continuing plays that look ready to move this week.
Play Date: 08/14/2009
KLIC (Kulicke & Soffa--$5.32; +0.13; optionable): Capital Equipment and Packaging Materials
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/klic.html
After Hours: $5.32
EARNINGS: 07/29/2009
STATUS: Flag. KLIC made a nice doji step higher through Friday on rising below average volume as it sets up very nicely go get going higher from this Flag test through early to mid August. We really like how it ignored the huge bounce in the market Friday and just made its own wake on this step higher. Once it can get stronger volume it will be in great shape for the move higher which is where we will jump in. To Recap: KLIC is forming a solid 5 week Flag base as it surged from 3.0 to 6 through July and gave into a nice, easy pullback through early August. It made a huge move higher from the March low at 1.1 to the 5 dollar mark in late May before testing back to 3.0 to consolidate the move and hold its key May low as support there. Set the stage for this breakout through July and now KLIC tests the 18 day EMA(5.1) in early August and even managed to surge off this level Wednesday to 5.51, but the market has since brought it back to its 10 day EMA(5.37) at the close last Friday. In any event, KLIC is in great shape here for the buy as it got that Wednesday surge to test the waters and the nice pullback to its testing low here again this week so once it gets a continued move higher next week we will enter.
Volume: 730.791K Avg Volume: 815.169K
BUY POINT: $5.58 Volume=1.2M Target=$6.92 Stop=$5.16
POSITION: KQS JA - Oct. $5c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/klic.html
Play Date: 08/20/2009
TIBX (Tibco Software--$9.25; +0.04; optionable): Infrastructure Software Solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tibx.html
After Hours: $9.25
EARNINGS: 06/25/2009
STATUS: Gap Test. TIBX started higher with the market Friday before falling back on low volume from its session high at 9.3. It is holding up very nicely at the 10 day EMA (9.1) as its testing low this week with the key gap up level from early August at 9.14. So far it has held the level and with this rising below average volume it is setting up for a solid move higher. Once it gets the move started with strong trade we will jump in. To Recap: TIBX gapped sharply higher in early August, clearing a 12 month base on the move and the key August 2008 peak that started the decline. A bit volatile the past two weeks but holding the breakout range nice. The pattern is tightening the past three sessions as volume dries up at the 10 day EMA (9.14). Just waiting for a break higher that holds into the close to give us the buy.
Volume: 2.649M Avg Volume: 2.877M
BUY POINT: $9.34 Volume=3.2M Target=$11.94 Stop=$8.79
POSITION: PAV KU - Nov. $7.50c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tibx.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/20/2009
AAP (Advance Auto Parts--$43.18; +0.09; optionable): Automotive Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aap.html
After Hours: $43.18
EARNINGS: 11/11/2009
STATUS: Bear Flag. Friday AAP just stepped laterally along its low from Thursday here at 43 after reaching up to key resistance at 44.0 from the 50 day SMA as the market bounced higher in the session. It did a great job of recovering the move higher and hold its 90 day SMA (43.5) as resistance at the close so looking for AAP to keep up the good work and resume lower from here after this bear flag test of the 90 day SMA into this week. To Recap: AAP is in a great 2 week Bear flag as it tests the gap from last week under the key 90 day SMA (43.37) as resistance. It trended higher very strongly from February to July before breaking down in early August with that hard gap lower over the 90 day which was key for that six month uptrend. AAP broke over the 90 day SMA Wednesday but it sold hard and recovered it with rising volume Thursday and held it Friday so if it can continue downhill from here we will enter.
Volume: 1.674M Avg Volume: 1.74M
BUY POINT: $42.89 Volume=2.2M Target=$38.85 Stop=$44.22
POSITION: AAP XI - Dec. $45p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aap.html
Play Date: 08/13/2009
IM (Ingram Micro--$16.72; +0.36; optionable): Information Technology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/im.html
After Hours: $16.72
EARNINGS: 07/30/2009
STATUS: IM gave a quiet step higher to solid resistance from its 18 day EMA (16.7) and 50 day EMA (16.8) Friday as it bounced a bit with the market. It needs to hold this line next week and continue lower as it sets up for some solid downsides from this week's test up near 17. If it does that with stronger volume we can get our buy. To Recap: IM is working in a 2 week lateral move after gapping lower to end July on its earnings report. Hard gap lower on earnings that broke key support at 17.0 from its July lows, 50 day EMA (17), and most importantly the uptrend line in its March to July run. Major change of character for IM as it jumped over that level in a single day and made no effort to refill it. That sets it up to fall hard toward the 14.0 level with ease. Also worth noting that IM has a considerable MACD divergence going against the highs of June and July which helps stack the deck for some downsides here as well. Consolidating some more along the 16-17 dollar range for early August and today sold hard on higher volume so very high probability of this one heading lower so ready to jump in a continued move downhill. A move to the target lands a 47%ish gain.
Volume: 1.42M Avg Volume: 2.085M
BUY POINT: $16.56 Volume=2M Target=$14.15 Stop=$17.06
POSITION: IM XW - Dec. $17.50p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/im.html
Play Date: 08/19/2009
JNPR (Juniper Networks--$24.61; +0.02; optionable): Network Infrastructure
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnpr.html
After Hours: $24.61
EARNINGS: 07/23/2009
STATUS: Island Reversal. JNPR made a move higher with the market up to 24.9 in the session before falling back on its face at strong resistance there from its early August and late July lows. It held the 18 day EMA (24.8) at the close as resistance and has fading below average volume so JNPR is starting to turn over nicely from the hard Thursday bounce. It needs to break lower past its 50 day EMA (24.3) as support next week and show stronger volume in the move to give us the buy. To Recap: JNPR is working on a solid five week Island Reversal as it gapped lower to start this week over its 50 day EMA (24.3) it gapped up and over in July to make the island. After making a solid run higher from the March low to early June it made a quick test to the end of the month and was back on its way higher in early July where it gapped over the 24 dollar mark to start the Island. It peaked in July at 26.8 and has tested back into August where it gapped back over 24 and its 50 day early this month to finish up the base. So, this is a pretty solid Island Reversal base for JNPR and it just needs stronger volume as it continues lower to give us the buy.
Volume: 9.799M Avg Volume: 11.042M
BUY POINT: $24.11 Volume=12M Target=$21.51 Stop=$25.08
POSITION: JUX VS - Oct. $24p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jnpr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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