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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/24/2009
AF (Astoria Financial--$10.94; -0.13; optionable): Savings & Loans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/af.html
After Hours: $11.13
EARNINGS: 07/22/2009
STATUS: Pennant. AF broke out from a 3.5 month cup with handle base to start August, clearing the 200 day SMA (10.56) and rallying near 12 on the breakout. It has come back to test the past three weeks, still holding over the 200 day as it faded on light, below average volume. It is holding at the 10 day EMA (10.92) near support, and we are looking for a turn back up that can hold the move into the last hour to give us the buy. Nice volume Friday as AF surged but faded to flat; expiration yes, but there is some interest here in a very nice pattern.
Volume: 783.967K Avg Volume: 1.508M
BUY POINT: $11.18 Volume=1.6M Target=$13.91 Stop=$10.48
POSITION: AF AB - Jan. $10c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/af.html
Play Date: 08/24/2009
ASF (Administaff--$24.72; -0.21; optionable): Staffing services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asf.html
After Hours: $24.72
EARNINGS: 08/03/2009
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. ASF is breaking higher from the three week handle to its 3.5 month base. Nice pattern that used the 200 day SMA (21.62) as support for the two bottoms. The 50 day EMA (23.83) was support for the handle. Nice volume Friday as ASF broke higher off the bottom of the handle, backing off to below average Monday as ASFT paused. A bit more fade to test the 10 day EMA (24.19) would not upset us, but may not get that. Very interesting that the staffing services have set up good patterns and look as if they want to start moving up. They move ahead of the data turning positive.
Volume: 149.245K Avg Volume: 202.945K
BUY POINT: $24.88 Volume=300K Target=$29.88 Stop=$23.64
POSITION: ASF AX - Jan. $22.50c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/asf.html
Play Date: 08/24/2009
PNRA (Panera Bread--$53.06; -0.62; optionable): Specialty eateries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pnra.html
After Hours: $53.27
EARNINGS: 10/27/2009
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. PNRA is working on a solid 4 month base formed from late April to present as it completes the Handle to the base now in this mid August bounce. It set up the base as it gapped lower in late April off its high from that run from the March low. Solid pattern as it used the 200 day SMA (50.88) as support on the two lows and is now using the 50 day EMA (53.12) as support in the handle. Nice setup and just waiting for it to make the break higher and show some better trade as it makes the upside move.
Volume: 345.725K Avg Volume: 698.144K
BUY POINT: $54.04 Volume=875K Target=$62.45 Stop=$51.48
POSITION: UPA AJ - Jan. $50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pnra.html
Play Date: 08/24/2009
THC (Tenet Healthcare--$4.57; +0.02; optionable): Healthcare plans, hospitals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thc.html
After Hours: $4.52
EARNINGS: 11/03/2009
STATUS: Flag. THC is in a one week test of a solid break higher just over a week back. This is the second test of the late July breakout from a nicely formed 7 week cup base that was the first base off of its November to March lows. Good foundation for the move higher. Gapped on the breakout and is moving nicely higher, stair-stepping higher. Excellent pullback to near support at the 10 day EMA (4.54) is setting up the next leg higher. Want to see it bounce and hold the move into the close. That is our entry point.
Volume: 6.117M Avg Volume: 9.69M
BUY POINT: $4.69 Volume=12M Target=$5.95 Stop=$4.32
POSITION: THC AH - Jan. $4c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/thc.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/24/2009
BRCM (Broadcom--$27.71; -0.31; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcm.html
After Hours: $27.30
EARNINGS: 07/23/2009
STATUS: Reversal top. BRCM is looking pretty interesting as it peaked in late July before gapping lower and making a lower high in early August. It sold to the 26.0 mark last Monday, the point where it gapped higher in July. After that test it rebounded and is not at the 78% Fibonacci retracement level, often key for a downside setup. Monday BRCM tried to rally further but reversed, closing well off its intraday high. Lower high after a double top, 79% Fibonacci retracement; looks pretty solid for the downside. If it makes the break lower it is in good position to try a downside move. A move to our target lands an 80%ish gain.
Volume: 5.477M Avg Volume: 9.585M
BUY POINT: $27.48 Volume=10M Target=$24.45 Stop=$28.46
POSITION: RBF VB - Oct. $28p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/brcm.html
Play Date: 08/24/2009
FFIV (F5 Networks--$34.21; -0.81; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
After Hours: $34.13
EARNINGS: 07/22/2009
STATUS: Head and shoulders. FFIV is in a solid eight week Head & Shoulders pattern, spending last week bouncing up off the neckline only to falter Friday and again, Monday, forming the right shoulder. It made the first Shoulder in late June at the high of the run from March's low before testing and climbing up to 38 in late July to make the head. Friday FFIV tested the 50 day EMA (34.81) and held; Monday it could not hold the 50 day but did hold last week's low on the close. Some serious downside volume the past two sessions, but FFIV did manage to come back from real trouble Monday. If it cannot hold the line here, however, we are looking for a downside play to down near the May peak. A move to our initial target lands a 60%ish gain.
Volume: 3.275M Avg Volume: 2.011M
BUY POINT: $33.97 Volume=3M Target=$30.88 Stop=$35.77
POSITION: FLK VG - Oct. $35p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ffiv.html
Play Date: 08/24/2009
PFCB (PF Changs--$30.93; -0.13; optionable): Restaurants (Pei Wei, P.F. Changs)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfcb.html
After Hours: $30.93
EARNINGS: 07/22/2009
STATUS: Bear Flag. PFCB broke down from a 3 month Ascending Triangle mid-August, unable to take that bullish pattern to the upside; pretty negative action. After tumbling through last Tuesday PFCB caught itself Wednesday, showed a tight doji, and bounced. Didn't get that far, however, stalling out Friday and Monday at the 10 day EMA (31.19). Looking for it to fail here and turn lower for a run down toward the twin May lows. That move lands us a 68%ish gain. Looking to move in as PFCB continues the move downside Tuesday.
Volume: 328.631K Avg Volume: 698.822K
BUY POINT: $30.73 Volume=750K Target=$27.86 Stop=$31.97
POSITION: HUO VF - Oct. $30p (-39 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pfcb.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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