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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/26/2009
BOOM (Dynamic Materials--$16.91; -0.19; optionable): Industrial materials
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/boom.html
After Hours: $16.91
EARNINGS: 07/30/2009
STATUS: Flat. BOOM is moving in a 6 week trading range from 16 to 17 following the March to June run then a fade back into early July. Nice surge, made its dip, and now it is working laterally in a narrow range. Really like that it can run back up to the June high near 22.50 and make us some great money without have to make a new breakout.
Volume: 115.16K Avg Volume: 378.827K
BUY POINT: $17.11 Volume=450K Target=$21.95 Stop=$15.91
POSITION: QCB LC - Dec. $15c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/boom.html
Play Date: 08/26/2009
SY (Sybase--$34.42; +0.03; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sy.html
After Hours: $34.13
EARNINGS: 07/21/2009
STATUS: Test. Nice surge from early July to early August. Nice break higher following a 2.5 month test of the rally off the late 2008 lows. The run from July to August is now testing near the 50 day EMA (33.80), and that is coincident with the 38% Fibonacci retracement level. It tapped that level last week, bounced, and on Wednesday's low it tapped back to that level again and rebounded sharply intraday. Nice double test of the 38% level as well as the April and June peaks. Lots of support and looking to play SY on a bounce from this level.
Volume: 616.257K Avg Volume: 1.551M
BUY POINT: $34.57 Volume=2M Target=$39.95 Stop=$33.38
POSITION: SY LG - Dec. $35c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sy.html
Play Date: 08/26/2009
WRLD (World Acceptance--$26.47; +0.52; optionable): Small business and consumer loans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wrld.html
After Hours: $26.47
EARNINGS: 07/29/2009
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Pretty decent 15 week base in progress, working on the handle the past four weeks as WRLD sets up for a new break higher after bottoming and rallying from March to late April. First real base off the low. You wouldn't expect lenders to be that strong given the issues with the financial and credit systems, but it looks as if WRLD is building a breakout in anticipation of improvement down the road. Nice volume last week and a nice easy test of the 10 day EMA (25.63) is setting up the break higher.
Volume: 132.813K Avg Volume: 382.25K
BUY POINT: $26.88 Volume=550K Target=$31.75 Stop=$25.11
POSITION: DQX AE - Jan. $25c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wrld.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/26/2009
SHLD (Sears Holding Corp.--$65.27; -0.18; optionable): Retail department stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shld.html
After Hours: $65.27
EARNINGS: 08/20/2009
STATUS: Gap. SHLD gapped lower on its earnings, moving through the 50 day EMA (67.05) on the gap. It has been unable to fill the gap, instead working laterally the past week. Tried the 50 day Tuesday and again to a lesser extent Wednesday. Gaps off earnings that move through key levels tend to continue moving in that direction. If it does we will look to move in on the downside. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 1.409M Avg Volume: 1.353M
BUY POINT: $64.44 Volume=1.5M Target=$59.24 Stop=$66.91
POSITION: KTQ VM - Oct. $65p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/shld.html
CONTINUING PLAYS LOOKING READY TO MOVE:
Play Date: 08/24/2009
AF (Astoria Financial--$10.92; -0.18; optionable): Savings & Loans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/af.html
After Hours: $11.01
EARNINGS: 07/22/2009
STATUS: Pennant. Nice short step lower for AF on fading low volume as it hangs out here at support from the 10 day EMA (10.9). It is doing well just resting at support here after the bounce through last week and once it gets stronger volume it can really take off to the upside and that is where we will enter. To Recap: AF broke out from a 3.5 month cup with handle base to start August, clearing the 200 day SMA (10.56) and rallying near 12 on the breakout. It has come back to test the past three weeks, still holding over the 200 day as it faded on light, below average volume. It is holding at the 10 day EMA (10.9) near support, and we are looking for a turn back up that can hold the move into the last hour to give us the buy. Nice volume Friday as AF surged but faded to flat; expiration yes, but there is some interest here in a very nice pattern.
Volume: 799.662K Avg Volume: 1.499M
BUY POINT: $11.18 Volume=1.6M Target=$13.91 Stop=$10.48
POSITION: AF AB - Jan. $10c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/af.html
Play Date: 08/24/2009
ASF (Administaff--$24.72; +0.08; optionable): Staffing Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asf.html
After Hours: $24.72
EARNINGS: 08/03/2009
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. This is getting to be a really tempting set up. ASF stepped laterally along the 10 day EMA (24.3) on fading low volume. It is doing well hanging here at the 10 day and is set up for a solid move higher after the quiet pullback through this week off its breakout from last week. Once it gets back on the move higher with stronger trade and can hold into the close we will enter. To Recap: ASF is breaking higher from the three week handle to its 3.5 month base. Nice pattern that used the 200 day SMA (21.62) as support for the two bottoms. The 50 day EMA (23.83) was support for the handle. Nice volume Friday as ASF broke higher off the bottom of the handle, backing off to below average Monday as ASFT paused. A bit more fade to test the 10 day EMA (24.19) would not upset us, but may not get that. Very interesting that the staffing services have set up good patterns and look as if they want to start moving up. They move ahead of the data turning positive.
Volume: 75.683K Avg Volume: 201.118K
BUY POINT: $24.88 Volume=300K Target=$29.88 Stop=$23.64
POSITION: ASF AX - Jan. $22.50c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/asf.html
Play Date: 08/25/2009
JRJC (China Finance Online--$9.98; -0.08; optionable): Online financial data on Chinese companies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jrjc.html
EARNINGS: 08/20/2009
STATUS: Rolling. JRJC continues testing the 200 day SMA (9.8) that is coincident with other price peaks, making this a good point for the bounce. This is a great setup for JRJC for the breakout higher in this Rolling base and once it gets going uphill again we will jump in. To Recap: JRJC is in a nice 12 week trading range that started in May. This is its second test of the bottom of the range, holding support the past three sessions at the March peaks, June lows, and the 200 day SMA (9.87). This range is consolidating the run off the knifepoint turn off the November low, but who really cares, right? We want to play the next rotation higher, and it looks as if JRJC is going to make the move from here as it has tested 10 and the 200 day the past three sessions and bounced back intraday. As soon as JRJC heads back up and shows it can hold the move into the last hour we move in.
Volume: 100.544K Avg Volume: 145.294K
BUY POINT: $10.37 Volume=225K Target=$13.31 Stop=$9.64
POSITION: JQJ LB - Dec. $10c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jrjc.html
Play Date: 08/22/2009
NVTL (Novatel Wireless--$10.03; -0.08; optionable): Software, telecom Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvtl.html
After Hours: $10.03
EARNINGS: 07/30/2009
STATUS: Cup w/handle. NVTL continues to consolidate along the 10 day EMA at 10.0 on fading below average volume in this Cup w/ Handle base. It is putting in a nice, quick pullback into the 18 day EMA (10.04) here before its back on its way higher and we will pick it up then. To Recap: This is a really nice base that has set up, NVTL's second off of its low hit in December 2008. The current 12 week base tried to breakout at the end of July on earnings but it gapped and reversed the same day. It held the pattern together, however, and kept on working it. Nice three week handle has formed at the 10 and 18 day EMA (10) with a tightening range. A pretty picture and looking for this pinch-off of the handle to yield a nice breakout. Looking to pick up some positions as NVLT moves higher over the down trendline formed from the late July peak the Thursday high.
Volume: 339.711K Avg Volume: 698.249K
BUY POINT: $10.36 Volume=900K Target=$12.44 Stop=$9.63
POSITION: NVU LB - Dec. $10c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nvtl.html
Play Date: 08/20/2009
TIBX (Tibco Software--$8.99; -0.16; optionable): Software, telecom Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tibx.html
After Hours: $8.99
EARNINGS: 06/25/2009
STATUS: Gap Test. TIBX posted a quiet step lower to the 18 day EMA at 9.0. It is holding the lows from the early gap of August at 9 and this is a great setup in the Gap test. Set to take off to the upside and once it does on this strong, rising trade we will enter. To Recap: TIBX gapped sharply higher in early August, clearing a 12 month base on the move and the key August 2008 peak that started the decline. A bit volatile the past two weeks but holding the breakout range nice. The pattern is tightening the past three sessions as volume dries up at the 10 day EMA (9.14). Just waiting for a break higher that holds into the close to give us the buy.
Volume: 3.136M Avg Volume: 2.937M
BUY POINT: $9.34 Volume=3.2M Target=$11.94 Stop=$8.79
POSITION: PAV KU - Nov. $7.50c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tibx.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/24/2009
BRCM (Broadcom--$27.81; +0.11; optionable): Semiconductors and Wireless Communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcm.html
After Hours: $27.75
EARNINGS: 07/23/2009
STATUS: Reversal top. BRCM continues working laterally, bumping up against resistance at the 78% Fibonacci retracement level. If it gives up at this level we will look for this play. A bit more aggressive, but if the techs fall BRCM is in position to make us some good money. To Recap: BRCM is looking pretty interesting as it peaked in late July before gapping lower and making a lower high in early August. It sold to the 26.0 mark last Monday, the point where it gapped higher in July. After that test it rebounded and is not at the 78% Fibonacci retracement level, often key for a downside setup. Monday BRCM tried to rally further but reversed, closing well off its intraday high. Lower high after a double top, 79% Fibonacci retracement; looks pretty solid for the downside. If it makes the break lower it is in good position to try a downside move. A move to our target lands an 80%ish gain.
Volume: 6.687M Avg Volume: 9.541M
BUY POINT: $27.48 Volume=10M Target=$24.45 Stop=$28.46
POSITION: RBF VB - Oct. $28p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/brcm.html
Play Date: 08/19/2009
CUB (Cubic Corp.--$37.67; -1.03; optionable): Defense Electronics and Transportation Fare Collection Systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cub.html
After Hours: $37.67
EARNINGS: 08/05/2009
STATUS: Classic action as CUB gapped higher then reversed to sell off on the session, breaking below its 50 day EMA at 38.0. If CUB continues its slide it is in position to enter. To Recap: CUB is in a strong Double Top base as it broke down from the July/August highs at 42 and this week it is testing that breakdown up to the 50 day EMA at 38.0. It set up this Double top after trending higher off of the March low and finally consolidating the move with a test through June and early July before it was back on its way to 42 in late July and early August. However, it couldn't handle the late 2007 highs at that level and after failing to take it twice it set up this strong base and now this week is doing a great job of putting the move under its belt and setting up for more downsides. Once CUB turns lower on some higher volume off of this quick test for this week and it can hold the move into the close we will enter.
Volume: 107.328K Avg Volume: 181.04K
BUY POINT: $37.94 Volume=250K Target=$33.38 Stop=$39.21
POSITION: CUB VH - Oct. $40p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cub.html
Play Date: 08/24/2009
FFIV (F5 Networks--$34.05; -0.19; optionable): Internet Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
After Hours: $34.05
EARNINGS: 07/22/2009
STATUS: Head and shoulders. FFIV reached up to the 50 day EMA (34.7) intraday but then turned back down, closing negative on the day. It is setup to make the drop off of this test and just needs to show the break lower. To Recap: FFIV is in a solid eight week Head & Shoulders pattern, spending last week bouncing up off the neckline only to falter Friday and again, Monday, forming the right shoulder. It made the first Shoulder in late June at the high of the run from March's low before testing and climbing up to 38 in late July to make the head. Friday FFIV tested the 50 day EMA (34.81) and held; Monday it could not hold the 50 day but did hold last week's low on the close. Some serious downside volume the past two sessions, but FFIV did manage to come back from real trouble Monday. If it cannot hold the line here, however, we are looking for a downside play to down near the May peak. A move to our initial target lands a 60%ish gain.
Volume: 1.258M Avg Volume: 2.01M
BUY POINT: $33.97 Volume=3M Target=$30.88 Stop=$35.77
POSITION: FLK VG - Oct. $35p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ffiv.html
Play Date: 08/17/2009
MS (Morgan Stanley--$29.53; -0.66; optionable): Financial Holding
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ms.html
After Hours: $29.55
EARNINGS: 07/22/2009
STATUS: Double Top. MS sold nicely through Wednesday to the 18 day EMA (29.4) on below average volume. MS has made the test of 30 that we were looking for and is trying to roll over. If the market rolls it will be out in front. To Recap: MS is currently working on a solid Double Top from its early June high at 32 and this early August peak there as well which has sent it lower through early August. MS trended higher pretty aggressively off its November 08 low up into June where it hit a high of 32 and set up the first top. It then made a lower high in late June and caved into early July to break that key uptrend line, but found support from the 90 day SMA at 25.0 and clawed its way back up to 32 again. Anyway, it has set up a solid Double top now and Monday it fell down to the 50 day EMA (28.4) off those twin peaks. MACD formed a lower peak than its June peak even as MS moved up to match that prior June high early in August. That is a divergence indicating the bounce higher was much weaker. We are looking to play it on a bounce test of this break lower and want to see it bounce up to 30 or so and then as it stalls buy half a position. As it turns down take another of same size to complete the buy. A move to the target lands a 64%ish gain.
Volume: 15.058M Avg Volume: 23.92M
BUY POINT: $29.55 Volume=27M Target=$25.35 Stop=$30.64
POSITION: MS VH - Oct. $31p (-63 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ms.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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