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stock recommendation, stock investment information
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/31/2009
ARO (Aeropostale--$39.15; -0.55; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aro.html
After Hours: $39.14
EARNINGS: 12/02/2009
STATUS: Flag. ARO blasted out of a 15 week ascending triangle on expiration Friday. Strong volume, strong price move that took ARO to an all-time high. Didn't want to chase it on that move and now ARO is giving us a good entry point as it tests back to the 10 day EMA (38.90), holding above the May and July peaks in the base. Very nice test and in position to make the rebound. Want to see ARO closing higher in the last hour to move in.
Volume: 2.419M Avg Volume: 3.027M
BUY POINT: $39.48 Volume=4M Target=$45.95 Stop=$37.94
POSITION: AQO AL - Jan. $38c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aro.html
Play Date: 08/31/2009
FULT (Fulton Financial--$7.34; -0.08; optionable): Northeastern regional banks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fult.html
After Hours: $7.34
EARNINGS: 07/21/2009
STATUS: Pennant. FULT is reversing its downtrend from mid-2008, surging higher in late July to early August, moving through the 200 day SMA (7.13) along the way. It has come back to test the past three weeks, forming a nice pennant over the 200 day, bouncing off its lows the past three sessions (at the 18 day EMA), showing a tight candlestick doji Tuesday as volume ramped up to near average. Excellent positive divergence on MACD, and money flow is rising even as FULT tests the breakout. Looking for a solid move higher that holds into the close to give us the buy.
Volume: 1.492M Avg Volume: 1.728M
BUY POINT: $7.62 Volume=2.2M Target=$9.31 Stop=$7.09
POSITION: FJQ LU - Dec.$7.50c (59 delta, wide spread) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fult.html
Play Date: 08/31/2009
ITRI (Itron--$54.79; +0.10; optionable): Technical instrumentation
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itri.html
After Hours: $54.78
EARNINGS: 07/29/2009
STATUS: Trend reversal. ITRI is moving out of a long downtrend and a shorter downtrend from June to July, breaking higher Friday and then holding the move Monday after gapping lower at the open. ITRI broke higher out of its February to May base in May, then it fell into this long pullback. We had it on the report as it worked through this pattern, but it was not ripe. Now it looks to be winding things up, and on some more upside volume and a continued upside move we can start taking some positions.
Volume: 341.767K Avg Volume: 598.525K
BUY POINT: $55.12 Volume=750K Target=$63.45 Stop=$52.44
POSITION: IUP AK - Jan. $55c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/itri.html
Play Date: 08/31/2009
SGI (Silicon Graphics--$5.58; +0.09; optionable): PC hardware
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sgi.html
After Hours: $5.57
EARNINGS: 08/06/2009
STATUS: Breakout test. SGI cleared its 10 week base on expiration Friday, then spent Tuesday to Friday testing the move, coming back to tap the 18 day EMA (5.41) on the Thursday and Friday lows and rebounding to close over the 10 day EMA (5.50). Monday it reached down below that level and reversed, again to hold the 10 day EMA. Volume jumped to the highest level since late June as it reversed, showing the buyers stepping in. SGI is right at the the June peak at the start of the base, the perfect point to hold and rebound. As it continues higher that is when we step in.
Volume: 276.321K Avg Volume: 180.42K
BUY POINT: $5.66 Volume=295K Target=$7.48 Stop=$5.31
POSITION: SGI AA - Jan. $5c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sgi.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/31/2009
EEM (Emerging Markets ETF--$35.31; -0.71; optionable)
After Hours: $35.32
STATUS: Double top. With China back in the struggling mode in terms of calls regarding its economy, the emerging markets are in trouble as well. Monday EEM gapped lower, clinging to its March/July up trendline. EEM made a slightly lower high the past week at the Fibonacci 78% level, a good point for it to turn back. It did. Now we would like to see EEM bounce up toward the 18 day EMA (35.76) and fail. Then we can move in as it turns back down. A move to the target lands a 60%ish move.
Volume: 72.353M Avg Volume: 69.555M
BUY POINT: $35.54 Volume=80M Target=$33.04 Stop=$36.11
POSITION: EEM VJ - Oct. $36p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/eem.html
Play Date: 08/31/2009
IM (Ingram Micro--$16.76; -0.32; optionable): Wholesale computers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/im.html
After Hours: $16.76
EARNINGS: 07/30/2009
STATUS: Gap test. IM is back on the report as it looks ripe to turn over now. IM gapped lower at the end of July on its earnings, gapping through the June/July consolidation range and the 50 day EMA (16.86). IM started to move higher Friday with a gap upside, but it reversed off the highs and closed flat. It gapped lower Monday and fell back through the 50 day EMA. Lower MACD peak as IM made higher highs in July; a negative divergence that indicates IM is weakening. It has been unable to fill the gap and that is another indication of its weakness. A move to our target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 1.09M Avg Volume: 1.98M
BUY POINT: $16.56 Volume=2M Target=$14.15 Stop=$17.06
POSITION: IM XW - Dec. $17.50p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/im.html
Play Date: 08/31/2009
PALM (Palm, Inc.--$13.33; -0.16; optionable): PDA's
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/palm.html
After Hours: $13.49
EARNINGS: 09/17/2009
STATUS: PALM peaked in early July, sold down to the 50 day EMA (now at 13.77) and bounced. It could not make it up to that initial peak, however, stalling out at the 78% Fibonacci level and falling again into the second week of August, undercutting the 50 day EMA as it did. Since that tumble it has bounced laterally below the 50 day, butting its head up against that level, trying to make a break through on Friday but reversing intraday to close below it. That second peak in early August showed a much weaker MACD, indicating weakening. After this modest bounce higher that is failing at the 50 day we are looking for further downside. A move to the target lands a 52%ish gain.
Volume: 4.745M Avg Volume: 13.27M
BUY POINT: $13.08 Volume=14M Target=$11.04 Stop=$14.11
POSITION: UPY VN - Oct. $14p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/palm.html
Play Date: 08/31/2009
PETM (Petsmart--$20.91; -0.29; optionable): Pet stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/petm.html
After Hours: $20.90
EARNINGS: 08/19/2009
STATUS: Gap test. Just over a week back PETM did what your neighbor's dog does in your yard. Earnings came out and they did not match expectations and the stock gapped lower through some key consolidation levels from late May on into June. It managed to rebound the past week and fill much of the gap, but stalled out at the prior August low at 21ish and started to turn back down Monday. PETM made a lower peak in July, stalling near the 78% Fibonacci retracement level. It tumbled down after that, making that gap lower on earnings. After filling most of the gap it looks weak and ready to fall. Good point to try a downside play if it continues to sell. A move to our target lands a 78%ish gain.
Volume: 2.957M Avg Volume: 2.453M
BUY POINT: $20.69 Volume=3.2M Target=$18.64 Stop=$21.44
POSITION: QPT VX - Oct. $22.50p (-80 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/petm.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock investment information
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