stock split, stock research

Begin Part 3 of 3

CONTINUING CANDIDATES BEST PLAYS: INVN still set up for a possible put.
1) EXPD - In a handle
2) MHK - No announcement, but a big move
3) GNSS - Still acting right and could make a move
4) ACDO - Trouble and still a put
5) BER - Volume kicked in on the move

EXPD (Expeditors--$59.52; +0.03; optionable): Air delivery & freight. Working on a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/expd.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 5-6-99 at a stock price of $62.50. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: We waited forever for EXPD to make a move, and it did not eventually drifting back from its reverse head & shoulders below its 50 day MVA (58.31). Only after hard selling shook out the weak holders, EXPD bounced hard from the 200 day MVA (55), and early this week it surged over the 50 day (58.31) and down trendline from June 2001. A nice jump, and it has been stingy with the gains, pulling back only slightly the last three sessions, showing consecutive dojis over the trendline (59), initially on light volume, but Friday's doji saw a volume surge (309k, the average). Looks good for a continued run. Target: 70
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 60.20 on volume of 350k. Over the recent high: 60.75 on increased volume. Stop: 57.50.
POSITION: August $55 calls to buy (URP HK - 14 OI; 429 OI for the $60).

MHK (Mohawk Industries--$68.43; +3.41; optionable): Textile manufacturing.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mhk.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that MHK has ever split its stock. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Broke out! MHK was in a cup with an extending handle. The handle was not of the best pattern, ranging up and down rather than just drifting back a bit. After a gap up and drop Thursday that held the 18 day MVA (65.27), MHK did not look ready to move. However, Friday's move blasted up on solid breakout volume of 1.13m (avg. 614k), and MHK closed at a new high. Still targeting 79.
BUY POINT: Still a buy up to 70 on continued strong volume. Stop: 64-65.10.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $65 calls to buy (MHK HM).

GNSS (Genesis Microchip--$27.90; -0.50; optionable): Semiconductor.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gnss.html
STATUS: Holding support. GNSS made a good move this week, running back over the 50 day MVA (27.31). Since then it has held support, Friday gapping up and pulling back, but holding the 50 day to close and moving on lighter volume (2.17m; avg. 4.16m). Looking for a hold and continued move with strength in techs, targeting 34. This is one of the techs that is working on the bottom of its base, and which can give us plays on the way back up - we just have to realize that there is a lot of overhead supply that can push it back down after a run and be prepared for that type of action. Not really a continuing candidate at this level, but one that we have kept our eyes on after our put plays ran their course.
BUY POINT: Holding existing positions. For new ones, the aggressive play is over 29 on above average volume. Stop: 27.20
POSITION: Stock and/or September $25 calls to buy (QFE IE).

ACDO (Accredo Health--$54.19; +0.48; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acdo.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 1-29-01 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $45. The company has sufficient shares for a 3:2 split.
STATUS: Has fallen steadily over the last three weeks, dipping down Thursday after testing the broken support of the 50 day MVA (57.22). Friday ACDO gapped down, but managed to rebound from its low of 52.75, but dipping back to close from its intraday high of 55.98. We could see another attempt to jump up, but are looking at a drop back on continued strong volume for a put. Target: 46 (200 day MVA at 44.16).
BUY POINT: From here: 52.45 on continued strong volume (Friday up to 1.3m; avg. 712k). After a test up toward 55-56, a drop back through 53 on continued strong volume. Stop: 57.75
POSITION: August $60 puts to buy (DZU TL - only 2 OI, delta .70; the 55 strike has 76 OI, but delta .51).

BER (W.R. Berkley--$60.50; +0.84; optionable): Announced the split! Splits 3:2 on or about July 3.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/ber.html
STATUS: Announced the split after hours Thursday, and Friday BER continued its 50 day MVA bounce, garnering increased volume on the move (up to a strong 225,800; avg. 118k). The strength from the split announcement could continue to push it, but BER is up against the high of 61.20, and the stock is not known for its extended runs without rest. We will see if it can hold the 60 range, pausing and gaining strength for the break to the new high. On a strong move, we can push the target out to 72.
BUY POINT: Looking for a hold of the 60 range, and then a move over 61.20 on continued strong volume. Stop: 57.50
POSITION: October $55 calls to buy (BER JK - 62 OI).

POST-SPLITS BEST PLAYS:
1) APOL - Looks poised to move
2) STZ - Post-split breach of key support
3) ACS - Big move!

APOL (Apollo Group--$37.67; +0.12; optionable): Education services. Split 3:2 effective 4-26-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apol.html
STATUS: Made a big move this week from the 50 day MVA (35.86) on the news that it would be replacing WCOM on the S&P 500. The move stalled as it challenged its high (39.42), but it is holding up well, dipping back on lower volume to hold the short-term MVA's (37.21). Friday APOL showed a doji over that support on stronger volume of 2.07m (avg. 1.56m), and we could see a bounce to continue the recent surge. Target on a new high: 46
PLAY: Aggressive: Over 38.50 on continued strong volume. Stop: 35.90. Over the high: 39.52 on volume of 2m or better. Stop: 36.90. August $33.375 calls to buy (AKA HX).

STZ (Constellation Brands--$27.85; -0.83; optionable): Wineries & distilleries. Split 2:1 effective 5-14-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stz.html
STATUS: Gapped down hard on the split, and after trying to hold the 50 day MVA (28.15) for a couple of sessions, STZ dropped through Friday, again with a surge of volume on the selling (839k; avg. 306k). Post-split weakness, and we will see if STZ can make a quick recovery or if a test of the 50 day MVA fails. On a failure, we can look at a quick put play, targeting 24.50 (200 day MVA at 23.44).
PLAY: After a failed test of the 50 day, a drop back through 27.55 on continued strong volume, with July $30 puts to buy (STZ SF).

ACS (Affiliated Computer--$55.02; +1.76; optionable): Software. Split 2:1 February 25.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acs.html
STATUS: Announced an acquisition and blasted up. ACS broke its downtrend on the move, gapping over the down trendline at 53.30 and moving on much stronger volume of 1.29m (avg. 1.08m). The pattern now has the look of a double bottom, closing Friday just over the pattern center at 55. Looking for more, although we could see the formation of a handle, but we will look for that move to hold 54. High is 57.05. Target: 66
PLAY: From here (aggressive): Over 55.50 on increased volume. Handle: On a pullback on lighter volume that holds 54, a move over 55.24 on volume of 1.5m. Stop: 51.90. Stock and/or July $50 calls to buy (ACS GJ).

WATCHLISTS:

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS WATCHLIST: AROW, BRL, LSTR, MUR, PDCO, SLM, STU and XL.

EASI ($47.71; -2.36): Forecast to announce a split the week of 5-27-02 with earnings. At this time, the company cannot confirm this date. We were looking for the breakout, but it looks like EASI has other ideas, and fell back to test through the 50 day (47.43) on sharply increased, above average volume of 313,200. We will see if it can hold here and set up again going toward the forecast.

BMS ($51.45; -0.51): We are researching a date. Did not bounce and fall, instead just gapped up a bit and sold back through our aggressive put buy point on its way down to an intraday low of 51, moving on decreased, but still above average selling volume of 390k. Target 49.50.

MEG ($68.34; +0.97): Forecast to announce a split on 5-24-02 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting. Has now crept above the short-term MVA's (67.35) and is approaching the recent highs (near 69.50), but volume is quite low and below average, and we aren't seeing much of a pattern. If it holds support and consolidates here we could still see a move going toward the forecast.

BBBY ($35.90; +0.07): Researching a new date. Little change Friday as BBBY closed with yet another doji over the short-term MVA's as volume remained steady and below average. Not much of a pattern and eeds to set up more.

PRE-SPLITS WATCHLIST: Watching FULT (5/21), GTK (5/24), MI (6/15), SU (5/23), RNR (5/31), SRCL (6/1), ESI (6/6), FBC (6/21), UPC (6/7) and GG (TBA).

ANN ($48.50; -0.44): Splits 3:2 effective 5-21-02. ANN made a nice bounce from the 50 day (then 43) earlier this month, and is now moving into a rather choppy consolidation over 48. Looking for support to hold and a strong move that carries it through the split. We will be cautious with positions held through 5-21.

LLL ($127.30; -2.31): Splits 2:1 effective 5-21-02. Fell out of the ascending wedge pattern Friday, tapping near the 125 level (April consolidation highs) before pulling up to close. Not what we were looking for, but LLL did hold the pattern lows, so we will see if holds through the split and sets up again.

RYL ($111.99; +3.48): Splits 2:1 effective 5-31-02. Trying to recover from Thursday's drop with the homebuilding sector, making a solid push back through the 18 day (110.37). Cautious of a stronger drop.

ZRAN ($39.20; +0.03): Splits 3:2 effective 5-23-02. Still holding onto gains after its strong move in the rally over the 50 day MVA (37). A stable consolidation over 38 could nicely set up the next move.

SRCL ($72.70; +2.15): Splits 2:1 effective June 1. After pulling back on the split announcement, SRCL pushed back up from the 18 day MVA (70) toward the closing recent highs Friday, as volume fell slightly to about average. Holding a consolidation here, though a bit choppy. With the recent intraday high at 75.55, we will an aggressive buy point over 74, with average volume with stock and/or August $70 calls to buy.

APPB ($40.90; +0.23): Split 3:2 effective June 12. A bit choppy here in a consolidation, holding after its nice recent move. Holding positions while it consolidates.

PMI ($87.85; +1.55): Splits 2:1 effective June 18. Moved up again Friday, with volume falling way off. Riding it but protecting positions, with recent highs back at 85, and the 10 & 18 day MVA's at 85.18 and 84.05.

YUM ($65.05; +0.44): Splits 2:1 effective June 18. Broke out of its small ascending wedge earlier this week, but has not been able to sustain any momentum, although it is holding over prior highs at 64. Still targeting 68 as long as support holds.

STJ ($84.55; +1.34): Splits 2:1 effective June 29. Bounced on the news of the announcement, but volume was below average and it is facing the recent highs at 85-86. STJ held on its breakout test, but we need some volume (900k) for aggressive positions on a move over 85.20. July $80 calls to buy (STJ GP). Target: 93

CONTINUING CANDIDATES WATCHLIST: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date. These include ASD, AZO, CYN, DHR, DIAN, DRYR, ETH, GOSHA, JCI, KRB, MGA, MTG, RCII, RUS, STI, TGH, and TGIC.

AHC ($83.30; +0.04): Volume surged even higher Friday, but instead of continuing the move, it tested back to the Thursday low before pulling up to close with a loose hanging man doji. We will see if it simply pauses here, or if we get a test back to the 10 day at 80.50.

CAKE ($40.74; -0.41): Gave up the 18 day (41.10) and is threatening a stronger drop. The 50 day is below at 39.24.

ETN ($86.35; +0.14): Little change Friday as ETN closed with a doji over the 10 day at (86) as volume remained steady and below average. Still looking pretty good, and the play remains a move over 87.85 with increased volume, stock and/or July $85 calls to buy (ETN GQ). Target: Run to 100. Stop: 82.50

FITB ($67.42; -0.21): Tightening in a range from 66-69, FITB gave up the 50 day MVA (67.17) last week, but rebounded this week back over that level. It has tightened up to that support, showing a doji on higher volume (1.95m; avg. 1.74m). The aggressive can look at a bounce play over 68, but there is serious resistance at 69. August $65 calls to buy (FTQ HM).

INVN ($18.23; -0.20): Just creeping down on low volume, but has yet to break through the Monday intraday low of 17.42. Still weak, and we continue to look for a fall toward the target of 15.

KLAC ($60.11; -0.94): Like many other stronger techs, holding onto the recent moves in the rally, and we will see if it can hold the 50 day MVA (60.30) to set up again.

MMM ($130.07; +0.66): Holding steady after the move earlier this week, and still targeting 145.

PII ($73.00; +0.21): Still holding over the highs in its previous flag pattern (now in the 3rd flag), closing Friday with the second consecutive doji as volume fell way off (56,400). The aggressive play remains a move over 75, with September $70 calls to buy (PII IN).

THC ($72.60; +0.80): THC hit our aggressive buy point Friday, but the volume was not what we wanted, coming in at the average. We will see if it can generate some strength.

POST SPLITS WATCHLIST: Watching ABM, CHS, FAST, ICUI, MKC, OPTN, PFCB, SONC, UOPX, and WLP.

AMAT ($27.31; +0.18): Still holding up, with some intraday volatility as volume remains strong (37.7m; avg. 21.6m). With the solid earnings numbers behind it, looking for AMAT to hold on and set up another move.

BBY ($49.57; +1.32): Split 3:2 effective 5-13-02. Made a strong push Friday and closed right at the 50 day as volume shot up to 4.08m (avg. 2.84m). BBY is close to triggering stops on the put play. If we see continued strength on a move up from here, we are ready to close existing put positions.

CHBS ($41.04; +0.50): Little change Friday as CHBS continues to hold over 40 (10 day MVA) on steady, below average volume. Looking for support to hold as we ride positions to a target of 46. The aggressive can play September $35 calls (URH IG) on a move over 42 with above average (450k) volume.

DF ($38.50; +0.65): Split 2:1 effective 4-24-02. Broke out to a new high today, continuing its steady, low volume move. Friday's volume was still below average at 432k (avg. 436k), and we will need to see more strength to take positions. We will see if it can hold 38 and go from there.

JEC ($41.05; +0.75): Split 2:1 April 2. Did not get the bounce off the dojis earlier this week, and instead JEC pulled back to the 18 day, making a small move from that level Friday on weaker volume. Holding the 18 day is good, but we need to protect short-term positions if JEC decides to give that up, turn over and visit the 50 day (38).

MCHP ($32.95; +0.45): Split 3:2 effective 5-9-02. Setting up a pullback, Friday moving up and showing a second consecutive doji as volume eases. We will see if it can hold the 31 range to set up a move.

PRHC ($23.69; +0.47): Split 3:2 effective 5-1-02. Still holding the 50 day (28.83), pushing up weakly Friday to close at the short-term MVA's. We will see if it can hold on here and generates a strong bounce.

WTNY ($37.65; +0.42): Split 3:2 effective 4-10-02. Back at the 18 day MVA (37), again reaching up over 38 at its high as volume remained strong (107k; avg. 60k). The 18 day has been solid support, so we will look for a continued hold and trend up. The resistance is at the recent highs at 38.75.

WTSLA ($22.68; +0.58): Split 3:2 effective 5-10-02. Moved up to close back over the 50 day MVA (22.56) Friday, with volume still just below the average (302k; avg. 306k). Not a convincing move up, and still looking for a possible put. The aggressive play is on a drop through 21.50, with the drop through recent lows on a move through 21 on increased volume, and July $25 puts to buy (WTQ SE - no open interest as yet).

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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