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Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information. A "prior high" refers to the high at the start of a base.
For conserving space on listings of stop losses, the symbol (7%) indicates that the stop is 7% below the buy point.
Stocks from Weekend report:
INLD: Tested the 10 day MVA on very low volume.
HUM: Hurt on a sector-wide downgrade.
QLGC: Could not get off the ground today, but very low volume. Keep an eye on this one if Nasdaq moves.
MIK: Tight doji testing 18 day MVA on very low volume.
Good Movers: CAO; GSB
Continued Plays:
TIF: Double bottom. Tight doji on low volume at 18 day MVA.
TMCS: Put. Going nowhere below the 50 day MVA; looks ready to fall.
SNS: Ascending wedge. Looking very close to the breakout.
COL: 18 day bounce/cup with handle. Still in that tight lateral pattern on below average volume.
AMI: Still testing that breakout above the 18 day MVA.
CHGO: Losing a bit of momentum after closing well off the high Friday. Want to hold at 8.
CLF: Very tight pattern on below average volume at the 18 day MVA.
ENC: Still in the wedge formed above the 50 day MVA on below average volume.
GPT: Making the move on above average volume!
GIVN: Pulled back on very low volume, testing the 10 day MVA.
HKF: Down slightly on low volume, as it still holds the pattern.
HMC: Could not follow through on Friday's volume spike. Still holding above the 18 day MVA.
HNT: Tough day with all healthcare plans, testing 50 day MVA on above average volume.
KEY: On the 18 day MVA on rising volume. Need the bounce soon.
LDG: Another doji on a slight gain with above average volume. Looks like this move may be ready to test the 10 day MVA at 31.05 already.
NCC: After the strong move it sold back on below average volume today; look for a test of 32.40.
OATS: Still at the 10 day MVA, trying to hold here for another move up.
PLB: Not so good Monday, falling through the 18 day MVA, down the gap up point and blowing two weeks of good lateral work. Needs to find support here but may test toward 48.
SSCC: Holding above the 10 day MVA, testing the breakout. Want it to hold above 17.30.
SSFT: Closed well off the high Friday on massive volume. Tried to hold today, but volume was low. Look for a hold at 7.
SVM: Moved up on continued average volume. Needs more volume to break 15.50.
TSN: Nowhere today on the 18 day MVA once again on below average volume.
TYL: Not bad. Nice ascending wedge above the 50 day MVA. Breakout over 6.
UAG: Flying plateau. Still in the pattern on below average volume. Waiting for the bounce higher.
VWKS: Test of breakout. Lateral move on low volume continues. Like it.
Best Plays:
1) STE: Nice cup with handle.
2) BSX: Running up to the breakout.
3) STT: Put. Showing some trouble.
4) NOC: Nice wedge.
5) Continuing: AMI; VWKS
New plays:
STE (Steris--$22.85; -0.10; optionable): medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ste.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. In a 7-month base with very good accumulation (7 accumulation weeks to 3 distribution weeks). The last three sessions it has moved laterally just below 23, showing an above average volume spike Friday (238K Monday; avg. is 250K). Money flow and relative strength are excellent. This is a nice pattern with good accumulation.
BUY POINT: 23.35 on volume of 375K+. Target=28. Stop=21.75.
POSITION: Stock and/or September 20c to buy (STE ID; delta 81).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ste.html
BNO (Benton Oil & Gas--$4.86; +0.08; no options): Oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bno.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Very tight 4-week wedge after a big breakout and run up starting in late February. We like to see these wedges form after a strong move as they are indicative of further upside action and the moves out of them can be explosive. Volume the past 5 sessions has been well below average as the stocks has held above the 18 day MVA (4.74), showing several doji's (118,500; avg. is 245K). Accumulation weeks in the pattern outnumber distribution weeks 2 to 0. Money flow is very strong.
BUY POINT: 5.25 on volume of 250K or more. Target=7.50. Stop=4.55.
POSITION: Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/bno.html
BSX (Boston Scientific--$26.30; +0.70; optionable): Contact lenses.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. In a six-month pattern, and is now moving up in the handle, approaching the breakout on rising, above average volume (2.09 million; avg. is 1.6 million). Accumulation during the pattern is good at 6 up weeks on rising volume to 3 distribution weeks. Relative strength is already making the breakout move.
BUY POINT:
Downside:
STT (State Street--$47.62; -1.62; optionable): Regional bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stt.html
STATUS: Put; testing breakdown. Broke below the 200 day MVA in early May, tanking down to 46 and then rebounding. Friday it ran up to the 18 day MVA (49.05) and Monday it rolled over on rising volume (1.86 million; avg. is 1.4M). This move also puts it below the February low at 48. Money flow is leading this one down.
BUY POINT: 47.35 on volume of 1.75M or more. Target=42.50. Stop=51.50
POSITION: Stock and/or August 55p to buy (STT TK; delta -78).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/stt.html
PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: DGX, FRX, LLL, MIK. New: ICUI; RMCI, and JNC.
DGX (87.99; -2.15): Broke below the up trendline on above average volume, though still above the 50 day MVA. We took some profits on positions we picked up in the sixties (dollars, not years), but it could easily hold at the 50 day MVA at 86. The breach was not on high volume, and it has made 4 runs up the 18 day MVA; a test of the 50 day MVA is normal, and it could provide a very good point to get into some new positions for those looking to get into this stock.
ICUI (39.97; +0.97): Holding tight below 40, a level that has kept a lid on the stock. Volume remained low (39,200; avg. is 92K). We are interested in taking some positions on above average volume on a move over 40.50. Then again over 42 on strong volume.
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: BBBY, SRCL
No report tonight.
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CSCO, SEBL, EMLX, BRCM, HDI, BRCD, BUD, AMGN, WMT, ORCL, HB, NOC
NOC (123.04; +0.17): Has set up a decent ascending wedge pattern this month, showing two doji's above the 10 day MVA the past two sessions on below average volume. Today the volume moved higher on the doji (955K; avg. is 1.4M). Looking for a move over 126.50 on above average volume.
EMLX (31.50; -0.30): Not bad. Holding up better than the other big techs, showing a doji today on continued below average volume (8.55 million; avg. is 10.9M). The pattern still needs to build the right hand side of the cup that started back in January, but we know we can make some money while it does as long as we recognize it may not make the breakout. Looking for a move over 33 on above average volume to give us a play up to 40.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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