|
|
us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/20/2009
EV (Eaton Vance--$30.01; -0.20; optionable): Asset Management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ev.html
After Hours: $30.01
EARNINGS: 11/24/2009
STATUS: Ascending triangle. After rallying off the March low into May, EV has worked laterally in a trading range. Over the past 14 weeks that range has turned into a triangle with EV pinching off over the past couple of weeks. EV bounced higher to the top of the pattern last week and is now testing, fading back modestly but on low trade and holding in the top half of the pattern. Looks as if EV is going to make a higher low here and then move higher. Looking for a solid advance to give us the entry.
Volume: 873.521K Avg Volume: 896.168K
BUY POINT: $30.65 Volume=1.2M Target=$34.95 Stop=$28.48
POSITION: EV BF - Feb. $30c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ev.html
Play Date: 10/20/2009
VLO (Valero Energy--$20.11; +0.45; optionable): Oil refineries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vlo.html
After Hours: $20.12
EARNINGS: 10/27/2009
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Energy is rebounding in price and the margins are getting to the point where refiners can make some money again. VLO formed a triangle from July to September, broke higher, but could not extend the move. It then formed the current 6 week reverse head and shoulders patter, breaking sharply higher last Thursday on the best volume in a month. It cleared the 200 day SMA (19.67) on that move and has since side-stepped to digest the move. Tuesday VLO started back up on rising volume. Closed off the high but like the action and ready to move in as VLO continues this move.
Volume: 17.972M Avg Volume: 11.598M
BUY POINT: $20.22 Volume=13M Target=$23.45 Stop=$18.98
POSITION: VLB AT - Jan. $20c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vlo.html
New play on a current position:
Play Date: 10/20/2009
RS (Reliance Steel--$43.19; -0.56; optionable): metal fabrication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rs.html
After Hours: $43.19
EARNINGS: 10/22/2009
STATUS: Flag. RS has already made us some scratch and after a solid September run higher that took it over its June peak it needed a breather. It slipped into the current 6 week pattern, something of a cup with handle, breaking higher last week on strong, above average volume. Testing back this week, reaching lower Tuesday to support near 42 and then rebounding to close at the 10 day EMA. Looking for a break higher after this test to give us the entry point.
Volume: 869.111K Avg Volume: 1.17M
BUY POINT: $43.54 Volume=1.4M Target=$49.95 Stop=$41.91
POSITION: RS CH - Mar. $40c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rs.html
Downside:
Play Date: 10/20/2009
AMSC (American Superconductor--$31.68; -0.68; optionable): Electronics materials
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amsc.html
After Hours: $32.40
EARNINGS: 07/30/2009
STATUS: Formed something of a head and shoulders pattern the past 11 weeks, finding resistance consistently at 34. Turned down and is holding the 50 day EMA on the close, managing to rebound some off the low. There is a gap from late July, and we are looking for AMSC to fill it. A divergent top in September as MACD was lower as AMSC hit a new post-March high. Looking to move in on a further move lower. A move to our initial target lands a 47%ish gain.
Volume: 490.866K Avg Volume: 1.015M
BUY POINT: $31.48 Volume=1M Target=$28.06 Stop=$33.05
POSITION: QAY XN - Dec. $32p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amsc.html
Play Date: 10/20/2009
ROST (Ross Stores--$45.88; -0.59; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rost.html
After Hours: $45.88
EARNINGS: 11/19/2009
STATUS: Put. ROST trended nigher into early October, then hit some turbulence. Bounced off the 50 day EMA (45.93) but then rolled over and broke it two weeks back. Trading laterally since, bouncing up and down on either side of the 50 day. Divergent top here as well as MACD made a lower peak even as ROST made a higher peak. Looking for a break lower to give us the entry. A move to the target lands a 65%ish gain.
Volume: 991.968K Avg Volume: 1.89M
BUY POINT: $45.69 Volume=2M Target=$41.75 Stop=$46.77
POSITION: REQ XS - Dec. $47.50p (-56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rost.html
CONTINUING PLAYS READY TO MOVE:
Play Date: 10/15/2009
MOT (Motorola--$8.32; -0.15; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mot.html
After Hours: $8.32
EARNINGS: 10/29/2009
STATUS: 61% Fibonacci double bottom. Tuesday MOT stepped lower to support from its 18 day EMA (8.3) after a low volume session of selling. It is still in solid shape here after some great gains Monday and like this lower volume Tuesday now to set it up for the next push higher. Once it resumes the move uphill we will pick it up. To Recap: Another stock surging in September and then testing back the past six weeks, setting up the next break higher. The 50 day EMA (7.95) acted as support for both of the legs and that is coincident with the 61% Fibonacci pullback. Looking for a bounce higher that can hold into the close to give us the entry.
Volume: 28.135M Avg Volume: 29.114M
BUY POINT: $8.36 Volume=35M Target=$9.49 Stop=$7.77
POSITION: MOT AU - Jan. $7.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mot.html
Play Date: 10/17/2009
RTEC (Rudolph Technologies--$7.52; -0.20; optionable): Scientific and technical
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rtec.html
After Hours: $7.52
EARNINGS: 11/02/2009
STATUS: Ascending triangle. RTEC sold some more Tuesday on fading below average volume to key support now from the 50 day EMA (7.3). It looks good now on top of key support here from the 50 day and its key low from July 2008 at 7.3 so if it can hold here the line and get back on its feet we will enter. To Recap: Nicely formed 10 week pattern, consolidating a nice March to July run. Last week it bumped up against the high in the base and retreated modestly, bouncing off the 18 day EMA on the Friday low (7.73) to hold its move. May test a bit more, but when RTEC starts back up after this test then we move in.
Volume: 76.77K Avg Volume: 104.982K
BUY POINT: $7.87 Volume=150K Target=$9.97 Stop=$7.32
POSITION: UXH BU - Feb. $7.50c (61 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/rtec.html
Play Date: 10/17/2009
TSRA (Tessera Technologies--$30.45; +0.23; optionable): Semiconductor equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsra.html
After Hours: $30.45
EARNINGS: 10/29/2009
STATUS: ABCD upside/Flag. Tuesday TSRA started uphill to 31.2 and fell back with the market to close flat at support from its testing low here at 30.0 from the 10 day EMA (30.0) and the early August highs at this mark as well. Volume was lower today as it turned over in the session and TSRA still looks good to get going higher off of support here to give us the buy once it catches its breath. To Recap: Broke out from a 9 week base in early October with a series of upside gaps. It moved a long way from 26 at the bottom of the base to 32 at the peak of the breakout move. Last week TSRA came back to test on lower volume than the strong upside trade that broke it out. Reached down toward the 18 day EMA (29.13) last Friday on low volume and rebounded to hold the early August peak. Monday TSRA tried to make the run but faded to close basically flat on a big volume burst. Good action at near support with that big shadow on the candlestick doji Friday and a hammer doji Monday. Looking for TSRA to bounce up off of this level and give us the buy point. Looking for it to hold the move into the close, but it could take off early so we can look at a partial if it does that and then add if it is still in buy position in the last hour.
Volume: 993.103K Avg Volume: 820.565K
BUY POINT: $30.48 Volume=1.2M Target=$35.94 Stop=$28.92
POSITION: TJQ AF - Jan. $30c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tsra.html
Play Date: 10/05/2009
UTSI (Utstarcom--$2.15; -0.03; optionable): Wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/utsi.html
After Hours: $2.15
EARNINGS: 08/06/2009
STATUS: Cup w/handle. UTSI moved laterally through Tuesday on rising below average volume at support from its 10 day EMA (2.1). It looks pretty decent still just holding its ground, minding its own business and consolidating to set up the next move higher. Consolidation range is tightening through October very nicely so once it squeezes out the next push uphill we will pick it up. To Recap: UTSI broke higher out of a 14 week cup with handle in mid-September but could not hold the move. It formed a pennant as it tested and held the 50 day EMA (1.93) in early October and then it has since been on the move higher off that level. Good hold of the pattern and ready to move in as UTSI continues the recovery off this test of support.
Volume: 439.297K Avg Volume: 673.857K
BUY POINT: $2.19 Volume=950K Target=$3.48 Stop=$1.87
POSITION: UON AZ - Jan. $2.50c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/utsi.html
Downside:
Play Date: 10/05/2009
DIOD (Diodes--$18.50; -0.01; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/diod.html
After Hours: $18.50
EARNINGS: 08/06/2009
STATUS: Bear flag. DIOD moved laterally along resistance from the 90 day SMA (18.5) on fading below average volume. Good to see the weak bounce from Monday already falling apart and at this rate DIOD looks great to turn lower into our buy soon. To recap: DIOD made us some money in the last two weeks of September before it was upgraded and rebounded through October until hitting the 20.0 mark last Wednesday. Since then it has started lower very nicely and broke its late July consolidation levels nicely at 19. If it can continue lower now from this level we will move in. A move to the target lands a 55%ish gain.
Volume: 242.603K Avg Volume: 358.886K
BUY POINT: $18.32 Volume=400K Target=$15.22 Stop=$19.22
POSITION: DUH XW - Dec. $17.50p (-38 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/diod.html
Play Date: 10/10/2009
DST (DST Systems--$44.11; +0.12; optionable): Information service software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dst.html
After Hours: $44.11
EARNINGS: 10/21/2009
STATUS: Bear flag. DST closed flat Tuesday at resistance from the 50 day EMA (44.2) for a second straight session after it gapped slightly lower at the start of the week to 41.0 here. . It looks good holding the line here at the 50 day although the September lows (41.) are fighting it as modest support so if it can push lower on stronger trade we will be ready to enter. To Recap: Some triple top action for DST from August into late September, breaking lower through early October and falling through support at 44 from the September low and the 50 day EMA (44.2). MACD made a much lower peak on that last high in September, the highest peak of the trio. That shows a truly weakening pattern. Looking for a turn lower from this relief bounce to give us the buy. A move to the target lands a 75%ish gain.
Volume: 321.802K Avg Volume: 434.532K
BUY POINT: $43.88 Volume=600K Target=$40.38 Stop=$44.75
POSITION: DST WI - Nov. $45p (-67 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dst.html
Play Date: 10/08/2009
MPWR (Monolithic Power Systems--$22.18; +0.02; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mpwr.html
After Hours: $22.18
EARNINGS: 10/22/2009
STATUS: Bear flag. Friday MPWR moved laterally along resistance from its 18 day EMA (22.2) Tuesday on rising above average volume. It has been doing a great job of holding the line here at its 18 day for five straight sessions now and once it turns lower we will make our move. To Recap: MPWR range-traded the past 11 weeks then broke sharply lower to start October. That took it out of the trading range. MPWR rebounded the second week of October to test, tapping the bottom of the range and the falling 10 day EMA (22.14) and then rolling over on rising, above average volume. However, made its way a little higher to significant resistance from the 18 day where it things are falling apart for MPWR and it looks great to head lower now. Looking to move in as it continues the decline after this modest rebound that formed the bear flag. A move to the target lands a 64%ish gain.
Volume: 412.541K Avg Volume: 389.277K
BUY POINT: $21.21 Volume=450K Target=$18.52 Stop=$22.38
POSITION: QPU XX - Dec. $22.50p (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mpwr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
