stock watch, stock tip

Begin Part 3 of 3

WATCHLISTS:

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS WATCHLIST: AROW, LSTR, MUR, PDCO, SLM and STU.

ABC ($78.50; +0.70): We are researching a forecast date. Drifting up in the consolidation on low volume and now approaching the late April (79.70). The drift up is not the best set-up for a move, but we will see if it pulls back some or if it finds the strength from here. We are edging the buy point out to 79.80 on minimum volume of 1.4m. Stock and/or August $75 calls to buy (ABC HO).

XL ($87.67; +3.92): Big move back up. Tuesday XL gapped back through our put buy point on huge volume, hitting down to 83.30 before today's rebound. It is just below the 10 day MVA (88.39; 200 day at 88.96), and we will watch for this bounce to fail. After a further move up that fails at 89, the aggressive can play a move down through 87 on strong selling volume, still targeting 80. July $90 puts to buy.

EASI ($46.04; -1.45): Forecast to announce a split the week of 5-27-02 with earnings. At this time, the company cannot confirm this date. STill struggling with the 50 day MVA (47.26), today dropping back from the 50 day. We will see if it can hold the recent lows (45 level), but it doesn't look promising going into the forecast.

BRL ($70.70; +0.50): Volume picked up a bit today, but remained just below average as BRL continued pulling into a handle-type consolidation to this cup dating back to mid March. It may take a bit longer to set up, but if the handle pattern holds, we will start looking for a play. However, the 200 day is ahead at 73.85.

BMS ($51.27; +0.75): Wild day. BMS Hit our target of 49.50 today and briefly tested through the 200 day (49.20) before it caught itself and powered back up, triggering stops as it moved on sharply increased volume. For remaining positions, wary of a strong rebound upward.

EDMC ($42.26; +1.42): Researching a date. Rebounded through the 50 day (41.57), but has a long way to go to be an upside play again after the low-volume move. We will see if it can hold the 50 day, and if not, could be a put.

TFX ($58.57; +0.57): Forecast to announce a split on 7-17-02 with earnings. The company has not confirmed a time for the release. Still holding support at the recent highs. Still riding positions as long as support holds, and looking for strong volume on a run from here. The high on the breakout attempt was 59.35.

PRE-SPLITS WATCHLIST: Watching GTK (5/24), MI (6/15), RYL (5/31), `RNR (5/31), SRCL (6/1), ESI (6/6), UPC (6/7), PMI (6/18), YUM (6/18) and PNRA (6/25).

ALC ($37.95; -0.05): Splits 2:1 effective 6-4-02. Hit our buy point but could not muster a move, closing with a doji today. We will see if we get a pullback, looking for ALC to hold support at 36 and set up a better move.

ATK ($107.00; -2.10): Splits 3:2 on or about June 11. Sold back through the short-term MVA's today, not giving us the move. We will look for ATK to again hold the recent lows at 105 (50 day at 104.19), setting up a run. We have some time before the split and can wait.

APPB ($40.29; +0.26): Split 3:2 effective June 12. As expected (off of Tuesday's doji, APPB has now tested back, but is holding the 18 day at 40. Still holding positions, and looking APPB to set up another run.

FBC ($30.40; +0.42): Splits 3:2 June 3. Still testing the breakout, and holding a little consolidation at 30 (18 day MVA). Still looking for a bounce play from here, with the aggressive play a move over 31. Stock only.

GG ($22.27: +0.86): Splits 2:1 May 29. Opened the week with a terrific breakout on huge volume that hit a high of 23.25, and now is showing a lot of volatility. We will see if it settles down.

IFIN ($75.90; +1.99): Splits 2:1 effective 6-17-02. Again reversed abruptly after having given up the 50 day MVA (74.60). The aggressive can play a move over 77, with July $75c to buy (FLQ GO).

CPS ($58.87; +0.21): Splits 4:3 effective June 7. After Wednesday's solid rebound move, CPS took a breather today, showing a low volume doji. Still looking for an aggressive play on a move over 59.20, July $55c to buy (CPS GK) and keeping an eye on potential resistance at recent high of 60.40, with the April high at 61.80.

COCO ($56.13; +1.14): Splits 2:1 effective 5-28-02. Made a weak push up to close at the short-term MVA's (at 56), so we could see another test back toward the 50 day (53.36). Still looking for it to hold on and set up a stronger move. The aggressive can play a move over 57, with August $55c to buy (UCS HK). The move we were looking for before the recent drop was 58.10.

SRCL ($68.25; -1.14): Splits 2:1 effective June 1. Gave up the consolidation Wednesday and tested back toward the 50 day at 67 today, as volume shot way up to 654,400. Looking for support to hold, and then will watch for a pre-split run.

STJ ($85.09; +0.81): Splits 2:1 effective June 29. Another weak push toward pattern highs today (85-86), this time holding the move. Volume, however, remains steady, weak and below average. Still looking for volume in the range of 900k for aggressive positions on a move over 85.20. July $80 calls to buy (STJ GP). Target: 93

CONTINUING CANDIDATES WATCHLIST: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date. These include ASD, BBBY, CYN, DIAN, ETH, ETN, EXPD, GOSHA, INVN, KLAC, KRB, MGA, MMM, MTG, PII, RCII, RUS, TGH and TGIC.

ACDO ($54.50; +3.01): Bounced up toward 55 today as volume increased slightly to just above the average. It is back at its short-term down trendline (and 10 day MVA, at 54.73), and we will watch carefully here. On a failure here, we can look at new or additional positions on a strong drop back through 53.50 on increased volume (today 737k), with August $60 puts to buy (DZU TL - only 2 OI, delta -.60; the 65 strike has 76 OI, delta -.72, but much more expensive).

AHC ($84.11; -0.10): The momentum has slowed and volume is dropping off as AHC hit 84.70 and pulled back to close with a tight doji. Watching to see whether AHC is simply taking a breather or needs to test back to the 10 day at 82.50. Still holding existing positions as long as support holds.

CAKE ($40.15; +0.43): Little change today as CAKE continues to hold over the 50 day (39.35) on dropping, below average volume. We will see if it continues to hold and sets up a move.

DHR ($70.90; +1.39): Gave up the 50 day earlier this week (the 3rd time this month) but again recovered today, closing over that level 70.64) on increased volume. We will see if it holds or sets up the put we were looking for.

DRYR ($45.37; +2.36): We got the move up today, but it was strong (volume down but strong at 223k) and DRYR moved back over the 50 day (44.81). We were looking for a weak test and a 'kiss goodbye,' higher volume selling back. Not the classic move to set it up, so we will see if it holds or struggles.

GNSS ($26.40; -0.54): Still bouncing around between the 50 day at 27.23 and the short-term MVA's (18 day at 25.38) on rather choppy volume. Still watching for a solid recovery over the 50 day and a move up from there. It is deep in its base and trying to build the right side, and could produce some moves, but the plays will be aggressive.

KSS ($76.24; +0.25): Tested back to the 10 day (74.89), in the range of its April highs. If it can hold support, and set up from there, we will look at a strong move back up to trigger new positions.

WEN ($37.02; -0.38): Volume kicked up to about average today, as WEN showed some shakeout selling but held the pattern lows to close. We often see some stronger selling in the tip of a pennant before we see the move, so we will see if WEN turns it back up or moves back to the 50 day (36.18). We continue to watch for a breakout to 38.60 on volume of 1.1m, with stock and/or September $35 calls to buy (WEN IG).

THC ($71.32; +0.76): Announced a 3:2 stock split, effective June 29! After its solid move up, THC has drifted back, and apparently, still needs time to set up. Looking for a hold of the 50 day MVA (69.86), with aggressive play a move over 73 on above average (1.8m), with stock and/or August $70c to buy (THC HN).

POST SPLITS WATCHLIST: Watching ABM, ANN, CHBS, CHS, DF, FAST, FULT, MCHP, MKC, OPTN, PFCB, SONC, SU, UOPX, WTNY and ZRAN.

ACS ($56.00; +0.88): Once again, tested back toward the 10 day at 54.37, but managed to pull up and close with a loose doji near the recent highs (56. 63) on increased, but still below average volume. We will see if it can settle down and hold, and gather its strength to resume last week's powerful run.

APOL ($34.74; +0.25): Gave up the 50 day, testing 35 the last two sessions. Protecting positions from a strong drop.

AMAT ($25.57; -0.59): Dropping back to the 50 day (53.03), testing below that level today. We will see if it can hold that level.

BBY ($47.63; +0.91): Split 3:2 effective 5-13-02. Volume is dropping off as the BBY made a small relief bounce today, pushing up a bit today. Looking for stronger selling to kick back in, targeting 44.25.

JEC ($39.99; +1.18): Split 2:1 April 2. Tested back to the 50 day (38.42) on increased, strong volume and promptly made a slightly weaker push back up to the short-term MVA's (40.25) today. We will see what it does from here.

LLL ($63.74; -0.21): Split 2:1 effective 5-21-02. Consolidated at the 62.70 level though the split, and tried to clear the short-term MVA's (63.74) today, but volume fell way off and LLL could not hold the move. We will see if it sets up again.

PRHC ($23.95; +0.35): Split 3:2 effective 5-1-02. A low volume bounce. Still looking decent, holding the 50 day (61.14).

STZ ($27.69; -0.15): Split 2:1 effective 5-14-02. Still struggling with the 50 day MVA (28.09), dipping back a bit today on increased volume. Still looks like it could give in to selling and drop through 27 on continued strong volume, with July $30p to buy (STZ SF).

WLP ($70.00; +1.96): WLP is trying recover and has pushed back over the 50 day MVA (68.93). Given the falling, below average volume, we are still waiting for the move to fail and for stronger selling to kick back in. If it quickly drops back through, we can look at a put play. The aggressive can play a move through 67.15 on sharply increased, above average volume (average XX) with July $72.50p to buy (WLP SV - 38 OI). Stop: 69.75

WTSLA ($23.54; +1.75): Split 3:2 effective 5-10-02. Hit our aggressive buy point intraday yesterday, but volume was lighter than what we wanted to see and it pulled over that level to close with a loose doji, indicating a possible bounce. Today WTSLA showed strong volume as it blasted back over the 50 day, ending for the moment any put play possibility.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

stock watch
stock tip