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world stock market, us stock market
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10/22/09 Investment House Daily
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Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit alerts: None issued
Buy alerts: ORN; QTWW
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
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Detailed chart-based analysis of the key index and leadership charts now included in the Market Summary Video.
TO VIEW THE VIDEO MARKET SUMMARY CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/marketsummary.wmv
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SUMMARY:
- Stocks continue the Wednesday selling but reverse after undercutting the range lows.
- WMT cites improving trends, helps spark a retail recovery.
- Jobless claims hung up at 500K
- Banks making huge profits but are not playing their bailout roles.
- Stocks, indices break below near support then rebound furiously as the buyers show they are still ready, willing, and able.
Further selling sparks buyers into action.
The market has taken different pieces of information each day and bounced in opposite directions, but, at the end of the day, it is still in the trading range. The last couple of days there have been big intraday moves, but when the wash was hung out to dry, the indices were still in the lateral trading ranges they have been in for the last week.
On Thursday the market was selling. It started a little softer, and then got a lot softer after that. It looked like the sellers were going to take over, but it managed to reverse and closed with very solid gains (NASDAQ 0.7%, and well over 1% on all of the NYSE indices). That was quite a reversal, given the earlier losses.
On Wednesday, the market was posting solid gains near 1%, but then it flipped in the afternoon and sold off on high volume; indeed, the move took several of the indices outside of their recent lateral range. News that WFC was downgraded to sell came out on Wednesday afternoon. The market may have been a bit jittery after WFC's earnings that morning, and other financial earnings have shown that there was larger loss provisioning than was anticipated. In other words, banks are putting aside more money in the event they suffer more credit-related losses. They have to have the store of cash there to help offset potential losses down the road.
What caused the market to run higher on Thursday could have been the Leading Economic Indicators coming in better than expected with a 1% gain. It also could have been more strong financial earnings; after the close there were some boffo earnings in that sector. Another reason could have been WMT announcing that it saw improving sales trends. That certainly reversed the retail sector that was starting to get into serious trouble. Restaurants, apparel, and other retailers across the spectrum of consumer sales had turned down sharply. WMT's comments help buck them up on Thursday, and the rest of the market caught a bid and rallied as they turned.
Underlying all of this was the dollar trade. The dollar started stronger but weakened considerably as the day went on (1.5035 Euros from 1.5007 Euros Wednesday). This is the first time the dollar has hit the 1.5 level, and the serious erosion of the dollar continues. As the dollar eroded on the day, we saw reversals in all of the related markets. Oil turned around ($82.26, -$0.11). While it still closed lower, it basically erased all of its losses. Gold was down significantly on the session, but it reversed for a modest loss ($1,061.40, -3.10).
One of the common underlying themes is "as goes the dollar, so goes the stock market." While there was a lot of noise out there on Thursday and potential reasons why the market reversed and rallied back, some of the same old players in the market rally upside were once again at work behind the scenes. Underneath all of that is the ongoing liquidity that was looking for a chance to pounce after the market sold off.
On Wednesday there was a pretty significant shakeout. Stocks sold down and broke out of the bottom of the range. The indices continued downside on Thursday taking them further outside of that lateral range. What often happens when a stock or an index breaks below an area is it will either cascade lower because the buyers that were there give in and pitch in their positions and sell, or you see buyers step in as they perceive a value and buy. That is what happened Thursday - they stepped in and reversed, and it was not just the indices making that move. There were stocks across every sector that were selling hard but then reversed. I thought that might be the case. When I am trading a lot, I watch key support and resistance levels. Do not sell on the initial break - if you do, you often end up wishing you had not.
With this much liquidity circling around, buyers sensed an opportunity and they stepped in and drove stocks back up. What looked to be a serious breach of support sent the indices back up into the middle of their lateral trading range. That keeps theme in good position to continue consolidating and looking for the next opportunity to break higher and run toward the end of the year.
TECHNICAL
INTRADAY
The market opened basically flat on Wednesday and then sold off, continuing this afternoon selloff on Wednesday that was said to be a result of the downgrade of WFC. The move continued and took SP500 below its trading range, but there is a big shadow on the candlestick and that reversed the move. You can see the index build steadily into mid-afternoon. Then WMT came out with its comments about improving trends, and you can see the market sprint up to the bottom range of Wednesday before the market sold off. It came back down from there, but it did manage to post a nice low-to-high day with solid 1% gains on the SP500. That is somewhat bullish action, and it is the opposite of the high-to-low action shown on Wednesday. The market was high and holding its gains, then it tried to start moving higher and sold off on Wednesday. There was a reversal of that, and that kept the indices inside of their lateral trading ranges. On NASDAQ it broke below its lateral move, but then it reversed when it was in that September peak range and moved back up into its trading range. Same thing for SP500 - it broke below the lows in mid-October, but held support at the September peaks and reversed for a gain. There was very positive intraday action.
INTERNALS
Internals were not that great. Volume was a bit lower. It dropped down to near average on SP500, and it was lower and near-average on NASDAQ as well. It was still fairly significant volume, although not the great reversal blowout volume that would have been great to see trumping the Wednesday trade. It was a reversal day, however, and sometimes they do not keep up.
The breadth was not that impressive (1.7:1 on NASDAQ, 1.9:1 on NYSE). On reversal days, sometimes it takes awhile for the breadth numbers to catch up with the move.
CHARTS
The charts are back in the middle of their October lateral range. The sellers stepped in on Wednesday and sold the market off, and the buyers stepped in on Thursday and moved the indices back up. As you saw on NASDAQ, they are in the middle of their ranges. The SP500 moved back just into the top half of this lateral consolidation range. That is not bad at all. The trendline is holding on SP500 and SP600. This is the trendline from March, and it is easily holding that. NASDAQ is not hanging in there as well. It just cracked over its March-July trendline. It has cracked it a few times but held the lower trendline it established in the early September and early October selling. Even though it is not necessarily hanging in on the March trendline, it is still holding its own. There are continuing lateral moves, and even though there has been a lot of up and down action the past couple of days, they are still holding the moves.
All the while, as they move laterally, the 200 day EMA is rising. One of the concerns earlier was that the market was well out in front of its 200 day EMA, and it still is. There have not been major changes along those lines. SP500 is still 20% above its 200 day EMA. NASDAQ is 22% above its 200 day EMA, but that is better than it was. It was quite extended and is improving. The question is whether the indices will be able to continue this lateral move and let the 200 day catch up. Frankly, if the liquidity takes over (as I think it will) the indices will ignore this 200 day EMA for now and deal with it later after they put in some more impressive moves.
What the action showed on Thursday was that even though the sellers took over Wednesday afternoon on some bad news, the buyers stepped in when they felt the time was right - and it did not take long for them to get there. They were not waiting for the trendline on SP500 but jumped in at the nearest support they could. To me, that shows the money is still there, and it is ready to step into the market. Liquidity is a strong driver, and it is still in the driver's seat right now.
LEADERSHIP
Leadership has not changed of late. CAT had a nice pullback here. Retail was in trouble and was selling hard, but it is making a bounce on volume that is not too bad and is holding the trendline. That is the theme we will see in a lot of stocks. PNRA sold off, and it is one of the leaders in retail. It has a nice channel, and it is bouncing up and down. It did not quite make it to the top of the channel line this time before it sold off, yet when it hit the bottom trendline, buyers stepped in.
Metals show long shadows on the candlestick chart. RS reached way down, but it found support at a key level at 40. It has hit 40 many times in the past, and it bounced off. It made a very aggressive intraday move with spiking volume, and the buyers came back in and brought it up. The pattern still needs some work, but you get the picture of what happened. LRCX reached down but was never in trouble. It is holding over its support. It is breaking higher and showing good volume as it does, so I have no complaints.
It is unbelievable what is going on in financials. GS has bounced after a high-volume selloff and it is back up to a key level. This is going to tell a lot of the story with respect to the market because GS is something of a harbinger. It has now bounced back up to a key level after a sharp selloff, gapping, and having an island reversal. It gapped higher, gapped lower, sold, and is now trying to bounce. I would like to see it come down to 175 and then take off; that would be an excellent position to buy into for an end-of-year run, but other financials are showing more strength. MS has blowout numbers - a new breakout. The small regional banks were selling off hard, and they shook a lot of us out (including a position we had) and have reversed. We will see if that trend continues. It does not hurt to have the President of the United States say that he will give money to the smaller regional banks and savings and loans.
AMZN had its shadow and a very choppy pattern, but after hours it is up almost $12.00 on its earnings. Tech is going to break higher. BIDU had an ABCD pattern and broke higher, then it tested and now looks like it will head higher. I love ABCD patterns - they are good continuation patterns that you will see in a choppy market or in a market where the stocks rally hard and then pull back in a choppy fashion. It sets up these patterns, and they are reliable indicators for moves higher. We have played a lot of them and are still doing so. One tends to make very good money off of them.
Leadership remains solid, and it is not only the big stocks. There are smaller stocks that are moving quite well and getting money of their own sending them higher. QTWW is not small in volume but is small in price, and there is an ABCD pattern there as well. There is money spreading out across the market and seeking out new stocks. That is a good sign for the market to continue its move.
THE ECONOMY
Jobless claims remain weak but still don't tell the full story.
Jobless claims were out and were not that good once again. Hope continues to spring eternal that someday the jobless claims will fall below 500K, but it was not today. Jobless claims came in at 531K, more than the 515K anticipated. The prior week was revised up to 520K from 514K. It cannot seem to break the 500K level. I do my own informal surveys, and there is still a lot of pessimism out there among CEOs and CFOs. They are in no mood to hire and are still trying to increase productivity (as can be seen in the earnings). There is still cost cutting to improve the bottom line, but whether they are increasing the top line revenues is at a 50/50 rate right now, at best. In reality, fewer are growing on the top line than those that still watch their top lines sink. That is not very encouraging and is not going to get any company hiring right now. That is showing up in the initial claims as well.
Continuing claims broke below 6M. You might wonder how that can be since they broke below 6M last week. They went down to 5.992M, but that was revised back up to 6.021M, so that turned out not to be true. This week and they came in at 5.923M, and maybe that is enough to stick this time. It was better than expectations of 5.97M, so maybe it made enough of a dent in the 6M level to hold up. That has been the trend, but it is not a real number.
This has been the longest recession since the Great Depression. We have had six quarters of negative GDP, and we have not had that since World War II. People are chronically unemployed, there is not enough money to keep paying them unemployment benefits, and they are falling off the roll. The 5.9M official continuing claims is not anywhere near the actual number that are unemployed. There is what they call the "real world" of unemployment versus the government world of unemployment - this is nothing new, but it underscores just how painful this recession is and how things are not picking up. Again, they are improving because going from zero to one is technically improvement. If you go to two, then that is 100% improvement from one. There is improvement but it is not a good relative improvement to past recoveries. The think tanks that are comparing past recoveries with this one say this is very subpar. It is nowhere near the strength of the types of recoveries we have had in the past. That makes sense when the government cannot decide on what policies it is going to have with respect to healthcare, insurance, taxes, etc. all, we are hearing axes could go up dramatically and it is not income taxes necessarily. Taxes may go up dramatically, and that squelches consumption. There is also talk of more stimulus and other programs. Even though it is denied there are as many people saying it will happen as are saying it will not, and that defers companies and individuals from making investment. If they may get a deal down the road, why spend today? We saw that in the car industry for years. Individuals would not buy a car today because they figured the car companies would have to come out and sweeten the incentive deal down the road.
It is the same with the holiday season as well. If consumers perceive that things are not good, they will wait out the stores. Maybe they will not get that exact hot toy for their kids that year, but they are willing to wait it out and get a great price or maybe get more than they would have normally purchased. That is how we are conditioned, and that applies to all points of our lives whether it is business or individuals. We wait to see if the government is going to give more handouts.
The real estate industry is howling for a continuation of the first time home buyers credit right now, even though we found out today that it was rampant with fraud. Over 600 children applied for new home mortgages. If the government gets involved at the federal level, then there is no way for it to control what is going on, and this is a classic example. That is why our founding fathers had certain enumerated powers for the federal government that were limited while everything else went to the states. When people can control things on a local level, you do not have these kinds of messes. This administration wants to spend trillions on a healthcare plan, and they cannot even manager Cash for Clunkers or the first-time home buyer's credit without massive fraud. I know, I know, I digress.
Leading Economic Indicators are up, thanks to the stock market.
The Leading Economic Indicators are up again. I think that makes four months in a row. Of course, it is trending higher because the stock market is going up, and the stock market is one of the major components of any forecasting tool. The stock market and financial markets are usually dead on. They are not dead on, however, when central governments get involved in massive intervention in the financial markets. Then we get false signals like the 1999 75% runs higher in NASDAQ only to see them roll over and crash into, at the time, the worst bear market we have seen since - everybody say it - the Great Depression. Or maybe just since the 1970's. Nonetheless, those are two of the worst times on record, and it shows how severe the rollover was. We are now getting false signals. The economy is not improving at a pace to warrant the strongest stock market rally since the end of the Great Depression, and that is what this is. After that post-Great Depression rally, this is the strongest one ever. Of course, they do not include NASDAQ's 1999 run - when they talk about the market they always talk about the Dow, but you get the idea.
The other time there was a huge rally was the last time the Fed injected hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy ahead of Y2K. It all went into the stock market and other financial markets and they ran ridiculously higher. Then, as the Fed pulled the money back (as this Fed is going to have to do), it all came crashing down. At some point, it will all come crashing down and there will be a serious financial problem, particularly since our dollar is going to be worthless at the time. I know, plenty of cheery thoughts.
The LEI was up at 1%, topping the 0.8% expected. The prior month (which takes it all the way back to August) was revised down to 0.4% from 0.6%. Revisions are still questionable - they are still not positive revisions moving higher and higher, and that tells us that experts are getting ahead of reality. The economy is not as strong as the market suggests, and thus we have the problem of the false positive signal with the LEI. Things are better, but are not as good as the market would indicate. I know that is heresy for someone who believes in market forecasting, but again, you have to deal with free markets where money makes rational choices based on what data is out there. Right now, the choices are rational based on the fact that the government has over-liquefied the world's economies. It is rational for people to put the money in financial markets because there is not enough business out there so sop up all of the funds. That is rational, but it is irrational to conclude that the move is based on stronger economic recovery down the road, or the kind of recovery that the largest gain science the Great Depression would indicate.
The banks are reporting huge numbers. After hours, COF reported $0.94 per share versus $0.14 expected. There are massive beats, and financial institutions are making money hand over fist. Most of them are - BAC managed to lose $1B in the quarter when the government is giving them free money and allowing them to loan out at 6% (or whatever they can get for it). As I said before, a trained monkey can make money given those circumstances.
Stock market rally is not an economic forecast.
The problem is that we need these institutions, as we were all told when they forced TARP down our throats. If they go under, we all go under. The interesting thing is they are making money but are loathe to lend any of that money out. On Wednesday, the President had to come out and say he was going to focus on community banks in order to get the money out to individuals and small businesses because the big banks were not lending it out. I know people at WFC and BAC who are in the loan depart, and they would like to loan to small businesses, but they cannot. The banks are saying no, or are making the requirements so stringent that no business in this economic condition could afford it. The banks are not getting loans out, but they are making a lot of money and turning around and hammering those small businesses or foreclosing on the taxpayers. While I am against bailouts, I have to pause and wonder where the bailout is for those hard working citizens who are under immense pressure that is being ratcheted up by the very banks that they helped bail out through their tax dollars. There is something terribly wrong with this picture. Friends of the administration are the benefactors, and the people who make the economy work are suffering. At some point they get squeezed so much that they either break or they say, "No mas." You would be surprised with the number that I have talked to in my informal interviews who are at that point. Just food for thought when they talk about what a great economic recovery that we have going here. It is not that great. It is a lot of smoke and mirrors.
THE MARKET
MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX: 20.69; -1.53
VXN: 21.58; -1.56
VXO: 20.18; -1.01
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.8; -0.14
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 48.9%. Paring back from the 50.6% the prior week. Tough week of selling knocked the bulls back but the bounce will bring them up again. Still well over the 35% level that is the threshold for what is considered a bullish climate. It does not mean things are necessarily bearish; that takes a reading in the 60% range. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level. Dramatic rise from 21.3% in November 2008, the bottom on this leg. This last leg down showed us the largest single week drop we have ever seen, falling from 33.7% to 25.3%. Hit 40.7% on the high during the rally off the July 2008 lows. 30.9% was the March low. In March the indicator did its job with the dive below 35% and the crossover with the bears. A move into the lower 40's is a decline of significance. A move to 35% is a bullish indicator.
Bears: 24.4%. Climbing on the market selloff, up from 23.6%. That puts it back up to the level hit three weeks back, still showing sufficient pessimism. Hit a low of 21.3% on this leg. Rebounding some from the big drop 31.1% and 35.6%. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: +14.56 points (+0.68%) to close at 2165.29
Volume: 2.216B (-13.4%)
Up Volume: 1.513B (+846.709M)
Down Volume: 745.246M (-1.132B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.68 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.05 to 1
New Highs: 62 (-94)
New Lows: 17 (-2)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: +11.51 points (+1.06%) to close at 1092.91
NYSE Volume: 1.314B (-6.53%)
Up Volume: 963.465M (+591.913M)
Down Volume: 335.397M (-669.76M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.89 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.84 to 1
New Highs: 202 (-251)
New Lows: 29 (-36)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
DJ30
Stats: +131.95 points (+1.33%) to close at 10081.31
Volume DJ30: 231M shares Thursday versus 251M shares Wednesday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
FRIDAY
I do not like to buy a lot on Friday, but there are some interesting features that I saw in the market on Wednesday and again on Thursday (although they were opposites). Thursday makes things very interesting. Stocks across the market reached lower and rallied back. I'm going to look for stocks that have pulled back over the last few sessions and made a good Fibonacci retracement - maybe a shallow Fibonacci retracement - or have hit some other support such as a near term EMA or a consolidation range that they have hit many times over. If you see that reach down on the candle stick chart and then the rally back up where it leaves the nice shadow or wick and it holds support, then it is a good reversal indication. A lot of those are good to trade off of, especially when you have this kind of liquidity out there. The sellers tried to push those stocks down and they could not keep them down. The buyers are stepping in and pushing them back up, and that is a good signal. If we get continuation of that move and the pattern is good, or there is good support, why not participate?
We have about two and a half months to the end of the year, and I anticipate we will get a further rally off of that. The question is whether or not it will test it down further near term. Thursday did not close the door on a further test down, but it showed that the buyers where there big time to support stocks as they broke lower for a second day in a row. What I am looking for is to pick them up as they come back off. Stocks such as CTRP have tested down and are bouncing. BIDU did the same thing, and we got in on that. I will keep looking for those. We want stocks that can run nicely to the end of the year whether they are expensive stocks and we play options, or less expensive stocks (money is going everywhere, and we can play those as well). We will stick to the game plan right now and look for the stocks that have set up nice patterns and held support, that have showed that shadow and have bounced back up. That tells us the buyers are there. If they continue, we can move in and take positions with them for a run to the close of the year. Have a great evening.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2165.29
Resistance:
2155 is the March 2008 intraday low
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2177 is a low from March 2008
2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
Support:
The March up trendline at 2165
2143 is the October range low
The 18 day EMA at 2138
2099 is the mid-September 2008 closing low
The 50 day EMA at 2077
2070 is the September 2008 intraday low
2060 is the August peak
2016 is the early August peak
1984 from late September
1962 is the bottom of the August 2009 range.
1947 is the October gap down point
1897 is the October post gap intraday high.
1880 is the June peak
1862 is the July peak
1786 is the November intraday high
1780 is the November 2008 closing peak
1773 is the May intraday peak
1770 is the mid-October interim peak
The 200 day SM A at 1771
S&P 500: Closed at 1092.91
Resistance:
1106 is the September 2008 low
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
1185 from late September 2008
1200 from the July 2008 low
Support:
1080 is the September 2009 peak
1078 is the October range low
The 18 day EMA at 1075
1070 is the late September 2009 peak
The March/July up trendline at 1064
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high
The 50 day EMA at 1044
The August peak at 1040
The early August intraday peak at 1018
The November 2008 peak at 1006 closing 1007.53 intraday
992 is the August 2009 consolidation low
956 is the June intraday peak
944 is the January 2009 high
935 is the January closing high
932 is the July peak
930 is the May peak
919 is the early December peak is bending
The 200 day SMA at 913
Dow: Closed at 10,081.31
Resistance:
10,365 is the late September low
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,963 is the July 2008 low
Support:
9918 is the September 2008 peak
The 18 day EMA at 9893
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak
9654 is the November 2008 high
The 50 day EMA at 9632
9625 is the October 2008 closing high
9620 is the August 2009 peak
9387 is the mid-October peak
9116 is the August low
9088 is the January 2009 peak
8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation
8934 is the December closing high
8878 is the June peak
8829 is the late November 2008 peak
8626 from December 2002
8588 is the May high
8581 is the July peak
The 200 day SMA at 8550
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
October 20 - Tuesday
Building Permits, September (08:30): 573K actual versus 595K expected, 580K prior (revised from 579K)
Housing Starts, September (08:30): 590K actual versus 610K expected, 587K prior (revised from 598K)
PPI, September (08:30): -0.6% actual versus 0.0% expected, 1.7% prior
Core PPI, September (08:30): -0.1% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
October 21 - Wednesday
Crude Inventories, 10/16 (10:30): 1.31M actual versus 0.33M prior
October 22 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 10/17 (08:30): 531K actual versus 515K expected, 520K prior (revised from 514K)
Continuing Claims, 10/10 (08:30): 5923K actual versus 5970K expected, 6021K prior (revised from 5992K)
Leading Indicators, September (10:00): 1.0% actual versus 0.8% expected, 0.4% prior (revised from 0.6%)
FHFA Housing Price I, August (10:00): -0.3% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.3% prior
October 23 - Friday
Existing Home Sales, September (10:00): 5.35M expected, 5.10M prior
End part 1 of 3
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