trend trading stock, stock trading site

Begin Part 3 of 3

SRCL (Stericycle--$68.60; +0.35; optionable): Waste management. Splits 2:1 effective June 1.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/srcl.html
STATUS: After its announcement, SRCL gave up its choppy consolidation and fell back to the 50 day MVA (67.08). The stock showed some promise Thursday as volume picked up significantly when it dropped down to tap the 50 day and then recovered to close. Friday it tried to bounce, reaching up to 70.81 (short-term MVA's at 70.13) but pulling back to close with a loose 'shooting star' doji. That is a bullish candlestick when following a drop and over support. Looking for another bounce that will hold. Target: 80 (but could be a quicker play going into the split next week. The high is 75.55).
PLAY: Over 70.20, with August $65 calls to buy (URL HM). Stop: 66

RYL (Ryland Group--$114.10; +1.52; optionable): Residential construction. Splits 2:1 effective 5-31-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/ryl.html
STATUS: Has performed well, steadily trending upward. The last three weeks RYL has settled back, moving laterally and slightly down to consolidate gains. This week it made a nice move up from 109, and it could give one last push going toward the split. The recent consolidation high is at 117.74. On a move, an initial target going into the split of 122.
PLAY: Aggressive: Over 115, with July $110c to buy (RYL GB). Stop: 109.75

CONTINUING CANDIDATES BEST PLAYS: JCI is setting up a nice pattern.
1) DIAN - A put
2) ACDO - Set up again for a potential fall
3) KLAC - Trading play
4) FITB - Still looking for a put
5) MHK - A nice consolidation

DIAN (Dianon Systems--$61.34; -0.74; optionable): Medical laboratories
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dian.html
STATUS: Trending down from its April high at 72, and has been struggling with the 50 day MVA (63.92). It has managed to push back over a couple of times, but is pushed down by its down trendline. DIAN made a higher low on its last drop, but Friday closed back at the most recent low, and we are watching support from its up trendline (at 60, connecting March and November 2001 lows). The selling volume has been decreasing (down again to 61k Friday; avg. 292k), and we will look for more power on a drop through the trendline. Targeting 56 (March lows, 200 day MVA at 55.45).
BUY POINT: Below 60 on average or better volume. Stop: 64
POSITION: August $70p to buy (UID TN - no OI as yet).

ACDO (Accredo Health--$54.55; +0.05; optionable): Health services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acdo.html
STATUS: Has been steadily trended down, recently taking out its 50 day MVA (56.52), hitting our put buy point and continuing down. It found some support in its February-March consolidation range, bouncing back up rather strong Thursday from the 51 level. ACDO tried to continue today, hitting up to 55.65 (50 day MVA at 56.52), but pulled back to close just under the 10 day (54.70) with a doji on continued strong volume (steady at 727k; avg. 738k). However, it is over the steep short-term down trendline (currently 53). The doji under resistance is a signal of a possible downward move, so we are riding existing positions on a drop, and we can also look at new put positions on a strong drop. Target: 46
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Back through 53 on increased volume of 800k. Stop: 57
POSITION: August $60p to buy (DZU TL - only 2 OI, delta -.60; the 65 strike has 76 OI, delta -.73, but much more expensive).

KLAC (Kla-Tencor--$54.43; -2.66; optionable): Semiconductor equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/klac.html
STATUS: With a chip equipment downgrade by Goldman, KLAC gapped down, tapping its 200 day MVA at its low of 52.93 but recovering for a doji. With the news volume was up at 14.7m (avg. 11.8m), but the effect of this sort of news often does not linger. The 200 day has been support for KLAC on two prior visits to that level, and the gap down to the doji over support typically spells a bounce back. On a bounce we can look at a quick trading play with options, targeting 59.
BUY POINT: Over 55 on continued strong volume. Stop: 52
POSITION: July $50c to buy (KCQ GJ - 20 OI).

FITB (Fifth Third Bancorp--$65.59; -0.44; optionable): Regional bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fitb.html
STATUS: Dropped hard Monday, gapping through the 50 day MVA (66.92) and continuing to sell on the day with strong volume. After that initial drop FITB drifted back up, tapping the 10 day MVA (66.47) but pulling back. Today FITB gapped down, but volume was light and it closed with a loose doji. We are still looking for a strong breach of the low for put positions. Initially targeting 62.50 (200 day MVA is at 62.36, with October and December highs), adjusting the target for existing positions as well, but we could get a more serious drop than that.
BUY POINT: A drop through 65.15 on above average volume (1.79m; today 1.15m). Stop: 68
POSITION: August $70p to buy (FTQ TN).

MHK (Mohawk Industries--$68.30; -0.64; optionable): Textile manufacturing.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mhk.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that MHK has ever split its stock. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: A strong breakout move last week, and after an additional surge Monday, MHK has slowed but acted well in a consolidation. It has pulled laterally and slightly down, moving on lower volume, Friday dipping back again on continued below average volume (607k; avg. 649k). MHK is holding over its prior pattern highs and 10 day MVA (67.86), and we look for a continued hold and strong continuation of the move. Still targeting 79.
BUY POINT: Riding existing positions. For new or additional positions, a move over 70 on volume of 900k. Stop: 66
POSITION: Stock and/or August $65c to buy (MHK HM).

WATCHLISTS:

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS WATCHLIST: AROW, EDMC, MUR, SLM, STU and XL.

PDCO ($49.12; +1.77): Researching a date. Continued up with a great move Friday! PDCO started the move at its 50 day MVA (45), Thursday breaking out to a new high and out of its recent range. Friday PDCO rolled through the next buy point, running up on increased volume of 602k (avg. 270k). Great earnings prompted the move, and we are looking at a target of 57.

LSTR ($97.85; +0.08): One that has run very well for us, LSTR has pulled back to test its 50 day MVA (96.27) after having made several bounces up along its 18 day MVA (99.83). Strong stocks will test their 50 day MVA's from time to time, especially after having made about four trend runs along the 18 day. The visit to this major support sets up a bounce and an opportunity to add to our stock positions. Today LSTR held support on continued strong volume (67,700; avg. 60,500). Looking for a continued move up on above average volume to add to stock.

TFX ($58.33; -0.24): Forecast to announce a split on 7-17-02 with earnings. The company has not confirmed a time for the release. Not a strong break out of the recent ascending wedge, but TFX is holding over the prior highs and 10 day MVA (57.81). Volume has steadily dropped, today down to 90,300 (avg. 126k) as TFX showed a doji. Still holding support at the recent highs. Still riding positions as long as support holds, and looking for strong volume on a run from here. The high on the breakout attempt was 59.35. On a move over that level with above average volume, stock.

CTAS ($53.54; -0.79): Working on a date. Still testing the breakout, but not making the move we are looking for. Friday CTAS pulled back to close at its 18 day MVA, which is recent support in the range of prior highs. In keeping with the holiday lull, volume was very low, so we will see if CTAS holds the 18 day; if not, the 50 day is below at 52. The aggressive play is over 55.50 on above average (1.1m) volume, with stock and/or August $50 calls to buy (NQQ HJ). Target 65.

BRL ($70.35; -0.35): Ran up to 72.35 but retreated to close, ending up down for the day on sharply higher volume (622k; avg. 468k). Still looking for BRL to settle down a bit and perhaps form a handle to its cup. However, the 200 day is ahead at 73.80.

BMS ($50.77; -0.50): BMS hit our put target of 49.50 Thursday but pulled back up hard from the support of its 200 day MVA (49). The upward momentum did not continue, and BMS dropped a bit Friday. For any remaining positions, we could see a bit of a drop but the 50 range is acting like support.

PRE-SPLITS WATCHLIST: Watching MI (6/15), RYAN (5/30), RNR (5/31), ESI (6/6), UPC (6/7), PMI (6/18), YUM (6/18) and PNRA (6/25).

COCO ($55.15; -0.98): Splits 2:1 effective 5-28-02. Has trended down toward the 50 day (53.43), but an attempted bounce Thursday met resistance at the short-term MVA's (55.90, with the short-term down trendline), and COCO turned back a bit Friday. Coming into the split and not a lot going on. The aggressive play (and it would require a ride through the split) is a move over 57, with August $55c to buy (UCS HK). The move we were looking for before the recent drop was 58.10 (high is 59.36).

GG ($22.16: -0.11): Splits 2:1 May 29. Opened the week with a terrific breakout on huge volume that hit a high of 23.25, and now is showing a lot of volatility, charging back up Thursday but showing a doji Friday. We will see if it settles down.

RYAN ($27.14; -0.78): Splits 3:2 effective 5-30-02. Tried the breakout of its ascending wedge Thursday, but gave it right back Friday, pulling back to close just over the recent support of the 18 day MVA (55.88). Closing in on the split and we can ride our positions to see if we get another bounce up.

FBC ($30.50; +0.10): Splits 3:2 June 3. Still testing the breakout, and holding a little consolidation at the 18 day MVA (30.36). Still looking for a bounce play from here, with the aggressive play a move over 31. Stock only.

ALC ($37.95; 0.00): Splits 2:1 effective 6-4-02. Hit our buy point Wednesday but could not muster a move, showing consecutive dojis to close the week. We could see a test back toward 36, but will hold positions for a continued move (ALC can move rather abruptly).

CPS ($59.26; +0.39): Splits 4:3 effective June 7. After Wednesday's solid rebound move, CPS is not following through with any strength, today moving slightly. The aggressive can look at a move over the recent high of 60.40 (April high is up at 61.80), with July $55c to buy (CPS GK).

ATK ($104.85; -2.15): Splits 3:2 on or about June 11. Gave up some more Friday, selling back to close just over the 50 day MVA (104.21). Not heavy selling, but if it cannot hold support here, we could have a bearish head & shoulders. We have some time before the split and will see if it sets up for another good run.

APPB ($39.92; -0.37): Split 3:2 effective June 12. Still holding support (18 day at 39.97) in its choppy lateral pattern formed off of its April breakout. Still holding positions, and looking APPB to set up another run.

IFIN ($75.45; -0.45): Splits 2:1 effective 6-17-02. Again reversed abruptly after having given up the 50 day MVA (74.63), as has been IFIN's habit over the last couple of months. It pulled back slightly today, and we could be in for some choppy action before a solid move (also its habit). The aggressive can play a move over 77, with July $75c to buy (FLQ GO).

STJ ($84.94; -0.15): Splits 2:1 effective June 29. Drifting up on weak volume, Friday reaching up to 86.25 but pulling back to close. We could see a test back to the 18 day MVA (83.37), continuing to ride the trend if it holds. Target: 93

CONTINUING CANDIDATES WATCHLIST: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date. These include ASD, BBBY, CYN, ETH, ETN, EXPD, GNSS, GOSHA, INVN, KRB, MGA, MMM, MTG, PII, RCII, RUS, TGH and TGIC.

AHC ($83.15; -0.96): The momentum has slowed and AHC pulled back slightly Friday. It is still holding over prior high (82.50) and the 10 day MVA (82.44). This has been a solid move off of the 50 day (then 75, currently 78.04), and we will see if AHC tests the 81-82 range and continues its trend up. Still holding existing positions as long as support holds.

AZO ($82.53; +1.23): After a couple of great moves on earnings, AZO gapped up today and closed with a doji, as volume was lighter but still strong at 1.6m (avg. 1.1m). The gap up to the 'star' doji is a topping sign, and we will get that dip back we were looking for, watching to see if it will hold the prior highs (in its cup with handle pattern) to set up a play off of the test of that support.

CAKE ($39.77; -0.38): Little change today as CAKE continues to hold over the 50 day (39.37) on dropping, below average volume. We will see if it continues to hold and sets up a bounce and continued trend up.

DHR ($71.40; +0.50): Another stock that gave up the 50 day earlier this week (the 3rd time this month) but again recovered Thursday, closing back over that level with a higher volume move. Friday DHR held that support, doing little else on this holiday Friday of light volume. We will see if it holds or sets up the put we were looking for.

DRYR ($44.87; -0.50): Held the 50 day (44.82) with a loose doji Friday. We got the move back up Thursday, but it did not set up the 'kiss goodbye,' at least not yet, as it was a strong move that pushed it back through resistance. We will see if it holds or struggles.

KSS ($75.12; -1.12): Again at the 10 day MVA, selling back on light volume after the gap up and reversal Thursday (which was also on light volume). It is back below the April highs, but we are looking for KSS to hold support here and set up.

MEG ($65.30; -0.45): Did not get the split announcement, and MEG continues to flirt with its 50 day MVA (64.68). Today it showed a third consecutive doji on below average volume. The aggressive play remains a move over 67 with above average volume. Stock only

STI ($68.95; -1.02): Dropped back again. STI formed a large double bottom dating back to August, but the promising handle turned into a two-month saucer pattern. It could not make a clean break, and Thursday's promising move led to selling back Friday. Still holding the short-term MVA's, so we will see if it can regroup.

WEN ($37.10; +0.08): After giving up the 18 day MVA (37.44) earlier in the week, WEN sold back on higher volume Thursday. The selling did not continue Friday as WEN showed a tight doji as volume eased up in the light trading. WEN was in an ascending wedge, but this drifting back is not solid action unless it can hold here and try to reverse. Otherwise, we are looking at a test of the 50 day near 36. Breakout is 38.60 on volume of 1.1m, with stock and/or September $35 calls to buy (WEN IG).

THC ($70.58; -0.74): Announced a 3:2 stock split, effective June 29! After its solid move up, THC has drifted back, and apparently, still needs time to set up. Looking for a hold of the 50 day MVA (69.89), with aggressive play a move over 73 on above average volume (1.8m), with stock and/or August $70c to buy (THC HN).

POST SPLITS WATCHLIST: Watching ABM, ANN, CHBS, CHS, DF, FAST, FULT, GTK, MCHP, MKC, OPTN, PFCB, SONC, SU, UOPX, WTNY and ZRAN.

ACS ($56.36; +0.36): Again tested back toward the 10 day (54.58), but ran back up to close on the typical low volume we saw Friday. Still seeing if ACS can settle down and perhaps form a handle to its double bottom.

APOL ($35.35; -0.39): Gave up the 50 day Wednesday, and has hung on with dojis under that level the last two sessions. Protecting positions from a strong drop.

AMAT ($23.80; -1.77): With the Goldman downgrade, AMAT was hammered, gapping way and closing with a loose doji on strong volume.

BBY ($46.10; -1.53): Split 3:2 effective 5-13-02. Resumed the drop Friday, closing at the level of recent intraday lows. Still targeting 44.25 on this put play.

ICUI ($38.62; -0.99): Did not get the breakout move, and in fact ICUI gapped down, although it closed with a doji after having reached up intraday near the recent price resistance at 40. The moves blows the ascending wedge pattern, but the aggressive can still play a move that hits 40.35 on volume of 100k, with stock and/or August $35c to buy (QPD HG - no open interest as yet).

JEC ($39.19; -0.80): Split 2:1 April 2. Could not continue up, instead turning back from the short-term MVA's at 40. Might need some more time at the 50 day to set up.

LLL ($63.50; -0.24): Split 2:1 effective 5-21-02. Not doing much, consolidating at the short-term MVA's (64) and an old trendline connecting September 2000-May 2001 lows. Looking for a hold here to set something up.

PRHC ($23.93; -0.02): Split 3:2 effective 5-1-02. The handle to the double bottom has pulled back to the 50 day MVA (23), where PRHC has been consolidating for a couple of week and showing something of an ascending wedge. The aggressive can play a move over 24.40 on volume of 920k (avg. 684k, today 404k), with stock and/or September $20c (PUH ID - No OI as yet).

STZ ($27.43; -0.26): Split 2:1 effective 5-14-02. Still consolidating under the 50 day MVA (61.23), dipping again Friday on continued low volume (333k), holding the recent lows. Still looks like it could give in to selling and drop through 27 on continued strong volume, with July $30p to buy (STZ SF).

WLP ($71.00; +1.00): Continued the strong recovery. WLP moved up Friday on increased volume (1.51m; avg. 1.21m) after having broken back over the 50 day MVA (69) Thursday. We were looking for a failure of the move to set up a put, but will have to wait and see what happens with this move.

WTSLA ($23.32; -0.22): Split 3:2 effective 5-10-02. Another one we were for which we were looking at a put, but like WLP, WTSLA powered back through the 50 day MVA (22.57) Thursday, and held up today. We will see what develops.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

trend trading stock
stock trading site