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us stock market, trade stock
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10/27/09 Investment House Daily
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Detailed chart-based analysis of the key index and leadership charts now included in the Market Summary Video.
TO VIEW THE VIDEO MARKET SUMMARY CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/marketsummary.wmv
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SUMMARY:
- Modest bounce gives way once more as NASDAQ leads lower while SP500 holds its trendline.
- Disappointing economic data, uninspiring earnings, continued dollar rally erode market.
- Consumer confidence declines back into the forties
- Another regional PMI backslides
- Quality of the next bounce is the key to a continued move.
- Some sectors showing relative strength, setting up, as rest of market continues to correct.
More downside but NYSE large caps trying to hold the line as SP500 holds its trendline.
The market took it on the chin again on Tuesday - at NASDAQ took it on the chin as it lost 1.2%, but the large cap NYSE indices (the Dow and the SP500) fared much better; indeed, the Dow gained modestly on the session and SP500 posted only a 3.6 point loss. On the other hand, NASDAQ was down significantly, the SP600 small caps were down over 1%, and the SOX lost well over 1% as well. There is a problem with respect the growth. We are in the earnings season, and if the growth stocks are not doing well, the outlook is not that positive.
The market showed four out of five downside days, and three reversals in five sessions. The market was up intraday posting nice gains, but then turned over and closed negative. On each of those sessions, it closed down on rising volume. That shows that while the buyers initially tried to push the market higher, they were flipped over as the sellers took control. The higher volume shows that the sellers were stronger than the buyers have been.
The market is suffering a corrective move just as it has done on several occasions during this rally. The key is how deep the correction will be and what the quality of its bounce will be. The market is running out of steam a bit, and when it does hold, it needs to show that it can bounce with some authority (i.e., the buyers step back in, and the liquidity that has been underlying the entire move comes in to send stocks appreciably higher). I will be looking at the quality of the bounce when it occurs as that with reveal how much further this rally has to go.
Earnings have been struggling and are not as great as has been hoped. Originally revenues came in better than expected which started stocks higher. INTC, AAPL and MSFT all beat on their estimates (and beat on the top line as well,) and that spurned the market to a new post-March high. Over the past week, that has not been as great a story. Indeed, NASDAQ (the home of AAPL, MSFT and INT) is heading down faster than the rest of the indices recently. There is an issue with respect to growth and what the future holds as earnings are not living up to expectations. That could be the reason the market is giving up some ground that it took early on when earnings came out better than expected.
The Richmond Fed came in far less than expected today at +7 versus the +14 reading it has shown the three prior months. The regional PMIs are backtracking somewhat, and that had its effect on investors psyches on the day. Consumer confidence also came back, falling below 50 (47.7, down from 53.4). This is still a recession level which did not help the investors feel any better on Tuesday to run the market higher.
The dollar is up four sessions in a row. It is showing a nice oversold bounce after hitting a new low on this selloff. You would expect that the dollar (as with any stock, commodity, or instrument being traded) would rebound after hitting a new low and making another down leg like the dollar just completed. The dollar bounced higher (1.4794 Euros, versus 1.4863 Monday). The dollar was just over 1.5 Euros last week, so there is a sharp recovery as it makes the rebound. It is still on a downtrend, but it is bouncing after the last low. One expects to see an oversold bounce at a minimum after a strong run lower in a downtrend. With the dollar bouncing up, all of the stocks that are dollar related - industrials, commodities, energy - are giving back somewhat because they move inversely to the dollar. They have enjoyed good runs to the upside as the dollar was flogged to the downside once more. The tables are now turning, and there is a reversal of the move. You can read whatever you want to read into this. You can say the move is over (it has been a very long move), and that may be the case. Do not forget that the liquidity is still out there, however, even with talk that the Fed will start jawboning the removal of that liquidity from the system. There is a pullback here that is similar to the other pullbacks we have seen (with some exceptions), but has its similarities and the liquidity is still there. We could still very easily see that run to the end of the year.
I do not want to make it any more difficult than it is. There are plenty of people on the financial stations that are worried about this, and with some of the leaders that turn over after good runs, they are understandably concerned. We will see how it plays out knowing that, thus far, the trend has held up quite well. The SP500 at its trendline and we will see if it will hold up again.
TECHNICAL
INTRADAY
The intraday action on the indices was down overall. It tried to start a bit higher, moving up over the Monday close, but then the economic data took the market lower. It tried to rebound in good fashion, but then drifted off for the rest of the day. It closed with losses on SP500, though not serious losses. These levels on SP500 hit early in the morning and mid-afternoon, and then held late in the day. Those proved to be important because they have to deal with the trendline. You can see the March-July trendline racing up and somewhat of a loose doji on the candlestick chart. It is holding above the 50 day EMA and above the trendline just as it has done all the way up; there is somewhat of a positive there. It is a very ordinary pullback in this overall run. There is a rally higher and the comeback to the trendline.
INTERNALS
Volume edged higher on both the SP500 and on the NASDAQ. Trade was higher again and still above-average as it has been over the past week. There is higher volume when the market rallied higher and reversed. Last Friday there was a gap higher and reversal, on Monday there was a reversal (although it was not on the huge volume), and on Tuesday there was an attempt higher, but it sold off on rising volume. That is the kind of pattern you see whether you look at NYSE or on NASDAQ - higher volume on some reversal sessions.
Compare that to what happened in July. The market is coming back during this consolidation and test period, but the volume is quite low. There was not a lot of heavy selling as the market comes back, so you can surmise that the selling is playing out. When you see higher volume selling, it means the sellers are still taking charge and have not finished their job. You can see higher volume as the market pulls back. You saw this again in late September, in early October, and then again just briefly in late August. You can have high bouts of selling volume as the market initially pulls back without it being anything nefarious.
CHARTS
Looking back at some of the prior runs in September where the market moved higher, there was the high-volume selling, then it dropped off as it bottomed. Then there was a nice volume surge as the indices picked back up and posted a very solid September run. There was higher-volume selling, but then on this move higher, after the initial run, there is not much strong volume. There is a lot of blank space below the above-average line until the more recent action. You can look at SP500 and see the same situation. There is a lot of low volume as the market starts to run higher, and then volume picked up as the market moved into this consolidation range and started to show reversal days. In early September, the volume was up higher, just as on NASDAQ, and then it dried up as the market consolidated. That put it in position to run higher, but the sellers ran out of gas and the buyers came back in with more volume. This time, unlike in August and September, the volume is just not as strong. That is something of a warning sign. There is higher volume now after a low-volume rally, and that shows that the sellers have taken control. The buyers were not as strong on this move higher which makes this test coming up very important.
SP500 is at the trendline, and volume is a bit elevated. Volume has come in every time there has been selling, however. It spikes up and it has not been the end of the run, so that is no major issue right now, other than the low volume on the move higher. I like to see SP500 at the trendline, and of course I would like to see it hold in this general area. There is support that is coincident with the 50 day EMA and the trendline. SP500 could come back to near 1050, hold, and still be in good shape.
NASDAQ has already broken its March-July trendline, but it did that in early October as well and it did not cave in the move. It is now coming back down and the 50 day EMA looks like a logical place for it to test. Looking back in July, August, September and early October, that is where it has held, so one would look for it to hold there again. One thing I want to note on all of these patterns is there is a relatively low new high. There was a nice break higher in September that clearly established a new high over the August peaks. This October peak is not that special; it is not that high, but that is not necessarily the end of the move. There was similar action in August. There was the strong run in July that established a clear new high, a test, and then a nominal new high, but it came back in September. The same situation could play out here with what looks to be a weakening move, particularly with MACD on the bottom part of your chart making a lower high. There was a high, and then MACD makes a lower high only a month later as the NASDAQ made a new post-mar high. It is a similar situation with SP500, although it put in a bit better high in October than NASDAQ. The reason NASDAQ is cauterized is because some of its leadership has eroded recently, and it looks to be selling a bit faster than the other indices.
The small cap index is a growth index as well. It has just broken its March-July uptrend line for the first time, and it is cracking through the 50 day EMA. It is the first time it has done that after a test since July when it broke through and formed the bottom of that trendline. There is a little bit of weakness here. There is a lower high that is not as well-defined as the September peak, which is very similar to NASDAQ. It is a growth index, so it is having trouble and will need to check up somewhere in this range from 310, but it could go all the way down to 290 - a pretty serious drop. We will see how the growth indices play out versus how the SP500 plays out.
LEADERSHIP
Some technology is starting to show issues. BIDU sold off hard, gapping down after it had a change in advertising that said it was going to temporarily impact its earnings. Even AAPL is under some pressure, but it looks like it will try to fill the gap that it made on its earnings. AMAT is selling off as well. In the continuing plays report, I speak about a cover call sale on our stock positions; be sure to take a look at that.
Retail is starting to have some trouble. ARO is breaking down sharply on higher volume. LTD is breaking down, gapping lower on high volume. Earnings are decent but are not as strong as investors are looking for, and retail is weakening across the board. They are not massive break downs, but it is weakening.
Energy has been pulling back as the dollar moves up. SLB has pulled back, but it has a nice consolidation at 38% Fibonacci level. All is not lost with energy. XTO is the same story with a very nice pullback. SWM is showing the same kind of action, and was able to post a modest gain today on a downside market. MACD is rising in strength. Energy is looking quite solid even though the dollar has been up for four days. The metals cannot say the same. RS is breaking lower, and PCU is breaking down on significant volume. It is still in a very good uptrend and could give a good buy after this pullback. The industrials look nice. CAT is having a beautiful pullback, and we have it as a play that we are looking to get into. DE is pulling back, and it may need a few more days to get right to buy, but it is looking good right now. Some of the exchange shares are looking solid. ICE has a nice pullback of its own, and CME (that we have a position in) is making a good pullback as well.
There is still great leadership even though the dollar has been moving higher and some of the leaders are under pressure. We can use that as a vehicle in the next run to the year end because there are some great stocks that can run fast that are setting up quite well.
The Dollar Index had its peak in early March. On the chart, you can see the gyrations that occurred in 2008 when the liquidity was shoved in the market, and then you see the long downtrend. It is still above 2008 levels, and it is not worthless currency at all. It is in a severe downtrend, however, and it broke through some key support levels. There is nothing to support the dollar until roughly 73, and it closed at 76 on the session. It is having its oversold bounce and its downtrend, and the 50 day EMA has held it in check all along. It is rallying up toward that level right now. There is a band of resistance from 77.25 up to 78, and if the 50 day EMA does not block it, then that could block it and push it back down. The dollar is having an oversold bounce right now, but there is nothing I can see to suggest that it is about to break its trendline. It has just been an ordinary pullback and is having an ordinary bounce back up to test its resistance. MACD is holding steady, and maybe you can read something into that. Until it can break this trend, the dollar remains lower.
As for financials, GS has come down and held the 50 day EMA two times in a row. If it does not break down, we want to take our gains off the table because one of the sectors that held up SP500 on Tuesday were the financials (in addition to the industrials and energy).
THE ECONOMY
Consumer confidence flags on worries of continued recession.
One of the big economic issues was consumer confidence. No one puts a lot of confidence in the consumer confidence report, but it has meaning at these levels. The 47.7 reading was less than the 5 3.5 expected, and that is a recession level. Consumers do not have a lot of confidence with what is going on. The primary drag is the current situation. It hit a level of 20.7, and that is the lowest it has been since February of 1983. 1983 was a really sharp, deep, nasty recession that ended the long 1970's malaise.
The stock market has raced up over 60%. Some say that is the best rally for the Dow and SP500 since the Great Depression, yet consumers are worried. They are concerned there will be a slowing in the economy. A lot of news outlets are talking about a double dip or predicting that the economy is going to be slower, moving higher than expected. In a hearing before Congress last week, the President's own economic adviser said that the impact of the stimulus bill would be next to negligible in the summer of 2010 (when most of the money is supposedly ready to hit the economy), then that raises some concern as to what kind of recovery we are going to have.
Consumers still do not see improvement in the jobs picture. They may hear and see that some regional manufacturing reports are better and that there are indications that things are better, but they also see that Cash for Clunkers was a one-off situation. The new home buyer credit is set to expire, and it is not impacting anything but the lowest end of the market. They do not see the kind of economic turn that leads to a robust recovery and a booming economy that creates a lot of jobs. Consequently, confidence is way down. It came in at 47.7, down from 53.4 in September, 54.5 in August, 47.9 in July and 49.3 in June. It is obviously heading the wrong way back down to the lows that were hit in the midst of this crisis. We do not have the confidence we need to get a robust consumer, but consumers are buying if they get the opportunity (as with Cash for Clunkers). If they see a deal, they will take it, and you can bet there will be a lot of deals during the holiday season. There is a big debate as to how strong this holiday season is going to be. Some are saying it will be + 1.9% or better, and others are saying it will be negative. It will be very interesting how it plays out, and lot of this will have to do with what the economy does over the next month.
Richmond PMI follows other regional reports, backslides.
The Richmond Fed is a newer regional PMI report in Virginia. It showed the same backsliding that we have seen in Chicago, Philly, and New York. There has been some giveback to the gains that were made originally as the economy bounced off of what was a virtual shutdown in the fall of 2008. The economies and economic data are bouncing back, but the regions are not continuing with robust growth. I will give a caveat and say that you cannot continue to rise ever month. There is ebb and flow, moves up and pullbacks. If the indices and the regions can move back up in the next couple of months, that is a good sign that money is having a little impact and the economy continues to open back up after the shut down in the fall. This was not taken as good news by the market on Tuesday.
2 year bond auction is a boomer.
The big news of the day was the 2 year bond auction that led off the $123B in bonds that are going to be auctioned off this week. There was great reception for it with $44B in bids that put the 2 year yield at 1.02%. That was much better than they thought they would have to pay. If your Treasuries or bonds are perceived at a greater risk, you have to offer more interest in order to get people to buy, but they did not have that issue. 1.02% is not the lowest it has been. It has been below 1% just in the last week, but it was not the 1.05% that some were fearing. That lower yield was better for us, and there was a nice bid to cover ratio at 3.62:1. That is the best since August of 2007 on any of these auctions. There is still demand for US debt even though we are printing up more debt by the day (and will print more with cap and trade, healthcare, and several other plans that are in the works right now). For now, countries are still willing to accept our debt with a lower-priced dollar and the worries that we might not have the kind of robust recovery that we are seeing in France and Germany and New Zealand and Australia and South Korea, China, etc. We are supposed to post a 3% or more GDP growth on Thursday, and we will see if it comes out. It could very well do so with Cash for Clunkers and the new home credit. What happens after that in Q4 is the real issue once those one-off stimulus programs are over. I do not want to sound too despondent about the economy. We are moving in the right direction, but I am concerned with how robust the move is going to be.
THE MARKET
MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX: 24.83; +0.52. VIX continued its move toward the prior peaks, but still a ways to go.
VXN: 25.4; +0.88
VXO: 23.37; +0.09
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.01; +0.13
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 48.9%. Paring back from the 50.6% the prior week. Tough week of selling knocked the bulls back but the bounce will bring them up again. Still well over the 35% level that is the threshold for what is considered a bullish climate. It does not mean things are necessarily bearish; that takes a reading in the 60% range. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level. Dramatic rise from 21.3% in November 2008, the bottom on this leg. This last leg down showed us the largest single week drop we have ever seen, falling from 33.7% to 25.3%. Hit 40.7% on the high during the rally off the July 2008 lows. 30.9% was the March low. In March the indicator did its job with the dive below 35% and the crossover with the bears. A move into the lower 40's is a decline of significance. A move to 35% is a bullish indicator.
Bears: 24.4%. Climbing on the market selloff, up from 23.6%. That puts it back up to the level hit three weeks back, still showing sufficient pessimism. Hit a low of 21.3% on this leg. Rebounding some from the big drop 31.1% and 35.6%. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: -25.76 points (-1.2%) to close at 2116.09
Volume: 2.356B (+3.8%)
Up Volume: 332.259M (-362.351M)
Down Volume: 2.028B (+416.451M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 2.04 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.46 to 1
New Highs: 39 (-49)
New Lows: 37 (+11)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: -3.54 points (-0.33%) to close at 1063.41
NYSE Volume: 1.396B (+0.6%)
Up Volume: 419.591M (+250.919M)
Down Volume: 913.257M (-300.01M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.85 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 3.17 to 1
New Highs: 84 (-86)
New Lows: 39 (+3)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
DJ30
Stats: +14.21 points (+0.14%) to close at 9882.17
Volume DJ30: 237M shares Tuesday versus 270M shares Monday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
WEDNESDAY
The market is still selling back, and it is still in a position where there could be more downside, particularly on NASDAQ. SP500 is at its trendline, and I would expect it to hold in this general area. It may not be a precise hold at that point, but its action on the charts Tuesday looks as if it wants to hold at that level. Energy and industrials have pulled back, and they are trying to hold their support. If they do, they will help SP500 bounce. It is the same with financials. GS was holding and trying to bounce off of support as well. If they are able to do that, SP500 will do the same. They are setting up and trying to make the move to do that.
There will be more economic data out - housing starts, durable goods orders, and more earnings. After-hours there were some that were better than expected and some that were worse than expected. It is feast or famine right now. You are rewarded if your earnings are decent, and if they are bad you are killed. If they are so-so or in line, you may hold up or you may be sold off. It is not a great environment to announce earnings in, so we have been taking positions off the table (and have been doing so for the last several days). If a stock has trouble holding support levels, I do not want to play around with them. If there is a good pattern still there, if they still are holding support, we will let them go. It is getting to the point where there could be a rebound after this pullback. Remember, we are down four out of five days, and SP500 is at its trendline. There could be a bounce off of this level, so as long as our positions are holding at some support or showing good action after selling off and bouncing back, we will give them the benefit of the doubt.
Moving forward, the key will be the dollar and what it does after four days to the upside. It could still have some more room, and that could pressure stocks. What you want to watch for the how stocks such as energy, industrials, and the financials hold at support even as the dollar might work its way higher a bit more. If they can hold support, it is a good indication that they can bounce near term once the dollar makes its move higher.
There will likely be more pullbacks, especially on NASDAQ because it started to lead the way downside and it is below its trendline. It still has some way to go before it gets to its 50 day EMA that has acted as support on the way up.
We will watch our positions and will leave alone those that hold support. I want to look at the industrials and other stocks I talked about that are trying to hold support. If they do, we will look at them for new positions as they bounce, but we will have to watch the quality of the bounce on the way higher. There are these pullbacks, but you have to watch how well the indices bounce after such a tremendously strong and long run. This last high that we hit was a nominal high. On the next rally, it would be good to see a strong move higher that really puts in a solid new high. If the money comes in ahead of the end of the year in order to chase gains to the end, we could definitely get the quality run higher to round out 2009. Have a great evening, and I will see you tomorrow.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2116.09
Resistance:
The 18 day EMA at 2138
2143 is the October range low
2155 is the March 2008 intraday low
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2177 is a low from March 2008
The March up trendline at 2179
2191 is the October 2009 peak
2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
Support:
2099 is the mid-September 2008 closing low
The 50 day EMA at 2084
2070 is the September 2008 intraday low
2060 is the August peak
2016 is the early August peak
1984 from late September
1962 is the bottom of the August 2009 range.
1947 is the October gap down point
1897 is the October post gap intraday high.
1880 is the June peak
1862 is the July peak
1786 is the November intraday high
1780 is the November 2008 closing peak
The 200 day SM A at 1779
1773 is the May intraday peak
S&P 500: Closed at 1063.41
Resistance:
1070 is the late September 2009 peak
The 18 day EMA at 1073
1078 is the October range low
1080 is the September 2009 peak
1101 is the October high
1106 is the September 2008 low
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
1185 from late September 2008
1200 from the July 2008 low
Support:
The March/July up trendline at 1063
The 50 day EMA at 1047
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high
The August peak at 1040
The early August intraday peak at 1018
The November 2008 peak at 1006 closing 1007.53 intraday
992 is the August 2009 consolidation low
956 is the June intraday peak
944 is the January 2009 high
935 is the January closing high
932 is the July peak
930 is the May peak
919 is the early December peak is bending
The 200 day SMA at 916
Dow: Closed at 9882.17
Resistance:
The 18 day EMA at 9896
9918 is the September 2008 peak
10,365 is the late September low
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,963 is the July 2008 low
Support:
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak
The 50 day EMA at 9663
9654 is the November 2008 high
9625 is the October 2008 closing high
9620 is the August 2009 peak
9387 is the mid-October peak
9116 is the August low
9088 is the January 2009 peak
8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation
8934 is the December closing high
8878 is the June peak
8829 is the late November 2008 peak
8626 from December 2002
8588 is the May high
8581 is the July peak
The 200 day SMA at 8570
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
October 27 - Tuesday
CaseShiller Home Pri, August (09:00): -11.32% actual versus -11.90% expected, -13.26% prior (revised from -13.30%)
Consumer Confidence, October (10:00): 47.7 actual versus 53.5 expected, 53.4 prior (revised from 53.1)
October 28 - Wednesday
Durable Orders, September (08:30): 1.0% expected, -2.4% prior
Durable Orders ex Transportation, September (08:30): 0.7% expected, 0.0% prior
New Home Sales, September (10:00): 440K expected, 429K prior
Crude Inventories, 10/23 (10:30): 1.31M prior
October 29 - Thursday
Chain Deflator-Adv., Q3 (08:30): 1.3% expected, 0.0% prior
GDP-Adv., Q3 (08:30): 3.2% expected, -0.7% prior
Initial Claims, 10/24 (08:30): 525K expected, 531K prior
Continuing Claims, 10/17 (08:30): 5915K expected, 5923K prior
October 30 - Friday
Personal Income, September (08:30): 0.0% expected, 0.2% prior
Personal Spending, September (08:30): -0.5% expected, 1.3% prior
PCE Prices, September (08:30): -0.5% expected, -0.5% prior
Core PCE Prices, September (08:30): 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
Chicago PMI, October (09:45): 48.7 expected, 46.1 prior
Michigan Sentiment-Rev, October (09:55): 70.0 expected, 69.4 prior
Employment Cost Index, Q3 (10:00): 0.4% expected, 0.4% prior
End part 1 of 3
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