stock trading, stock split

Begin Part 2 of 3

THE PLAYS:

BONUS PLAYS: Hitting the put buy points today were TKR, BJ and PSUN (although it pulled back up to close). DCN is still set up nicely for the upside play.

We feature a couple of downside plays tonight, with four new Pre-Announcement plays below.

MKSI (Mks Instruments--$32.92; +0.85; optionable): Semiconductor equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mksi.html
STATUS: Fell off of a double top last week, falling from 39.50 and taking out its 50 day MVA (33.53) with a big spike in volume Friday. Today saw a relief bounce for MKSI, as the stock reached back up but did not threaten the 50 day, and volume dropped way off to 152,500 (avg. 314k). A weak test after a strong breach of support spells a put play, and we are targeting 27 (200 day MVA at 26.53). There is some support from recent lows at 30.
BUY POINT: A drop back through 31.79 on increased volume near the average. Stop: 34.50
POSITION: July or October $35p to buy (QQB SG (delta -.63) or QQB VG (delta -.54) - no open interest as of yet for either).

GB (Wilson Greatbatch--$25.80; +0.76; optionable): Industrial electrical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gb.html
STATUS: After a big drop in January, GB had been battling its 200 day MVA (28 range), holding support on drops at 24. Last week GB crashed through the 24 level, hitting down to 21.20 on strong selling. It has reversed, but the move back up was on declining volume, denoting weakness, until today, when GB pulled back from an attempted move over the 50 day MVA (26.16), with volume surging to 253k (avg. 109k). It pulled back off of the intraday high of 26.40 to close, and with the high volume that could signal the beginning of another drop for GB. Initially targeting the recent low.
BUY POINT: Through 25 on continued strong volume. Stop: 27
POSITION: August $30p to buy (GB TF - no OI as of yet).

Quick updates prior bonus plays:

THQI - Still dropping nicely
FNF - Gapped up to a doji - again a signal of a test back
EME - Still looking like a drop back from the 50 day
WY - Holding support but wary with possible bearish double top
ATVI - Holding up after the big move, but a test of the 18 day is possible
IGEN - Another doji and IGEN looks like it could drop again on the put play
LNY - Still flirting with the 50 day; 24 is recent support
CCRN - Still holding strong at the 18 day
AGN - Pulled back from a move on the 18 day; way but still watching for a drop
WFMI - Tested near the 50 day today but recovered for now
GRMN - Holding up after the move, recovering from an intraday test of the 50 day today
DISH - Could go either way after today's doji, but wary of a strong move up; recent support is at 24
CCRD - Has not been able to take out the 10 day, and looking for a drop back on the put play
WM - In a pennant, trying to hold the 18 day; we will see if it can generate a move up from here
AVY - Still holding the 18 day, and we will hold it as long as it does
TDY - Slowed a bit after the strong move, but did not give up much ground. Looking good, although will likely test 20-20.50

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK: EASI is forecast for Wednesday, but it is set up for a downside play going in.

NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:

JCI (Johnson Controls--$89.95; -1.03; optionable): Auto parts. Working on a new announcement date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jci.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in March 1997 at the $85 range. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: JCI made a nice January-March run to a new high, and since has pulled into a three month double bottom with handle. The handle looks solid, extending for just over a week and showing light volume, down significantly on the last two sessions' selling (145,300 today; avg. 422k). Today JCI closed on the 18 day MVA, and we will look for a hold here (50 day at 88.59) and breakout move. The high is 93.20. Good relative strength and money flow. Target: 108
BUY POINT: Breakout: 92.41 on volume of 630k. Stop: 87
POSITION: Stock and/or October $85c to buy (JCI JQ).

PHM (Pulte Homes--$54.75; +2.82; optionable): Residential construction. Working on a new announcement date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/phm.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in May 1998 at a price of $52. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: Like many homebuilders, strong since September, and leveling out more recently. However, PHM has formed up in a nice pattern, a cup with handle/ascending wedge pattern dating back to early March. The first attempt to break from the handle early this month resulted in a pullback to test the 50 day MVA (51.58), which it held to form a smaller cup pattern in the extended handle. Friday PHM got a volume surge as it moved up to the high (56.20), but today it pulled back to test the 18 day MVA (53.06), recovering to close as it moved on lighter volume (680k; avg. 717k). Looking for the breakout, and targeting 67.45
BUY POINT: 56.30 on volume of 1.2M. Stop: 51
POSITION: Stock and/or October $50c to buy (PHM JJ).

DLX (Deluxe Corp--$45.50; -0.35; optionable): Business/management services. Researching a split announcement date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dlx.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in March 1997 at the $85 range. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: A steady uptrend from late 2000 ($16) finally peaked at 50.13 in March, and DLX corrected back into a cup with handle. This month DLX made it back over the 50 day MVA (45.04), dipping back below that level for one session last week as it started to form the handle. It has recovered, today dipping back to test the 50 day at its intraday low, recovering as it moved on low volume (down to 129k; avg. 239k). Target: 56
BUY POINT: 46.61 on volume of 360k. Stop: 44
POSITION: Stock and/or October $45c to buy (DLX JI).

HSIC (Henry Schein--$49.45; -0.61; optionable): Medical equipment wholesale. Researching a new date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hsic.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that HSIC has ever split its stock. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: HSIC broke out of a trading range in January (highs 40), and after testing that move (and its 50 day MVA) in March, has made a nice run up along the short-term MVA's. It has pulled into a lateral consolidation over the past eight sessions, showing loose dojis but holding support. Today it pulled back slightly, but volume spiked up to 518,500 (avg. 336k). We are looking for a hold of the 18 day, and then a blast up out of the consolidation. Target: 60
BUY POINT: 50.69 on continued strong volume (min. 450k). Stop: 47.14 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or October $45c to buy (HQE JI).

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT BEST PLAYS:
1) JEF - Another intraday 50 day bounce
2) NYT - Still holding the pattern
3) LSTR - Great move!
4) TFX - Small handle
5) CTAS - Aggressive but looking for a bounce back
6) EASI - Still looking downside

JEF (Jefferies Group--$48.53; -0.47; optionable): Investment brokerage. Researching a new announcement date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jef.html
BACKGROUND: A new issue since 1999, JEF has not split its stock. The company has sufficient share for a 3:2 split.
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. JEF made a nice move in March, making a new high at 52.10. It has corrected back into a double bottom, recently gapping over the pattern center (50.31), but pulling back off of the gap to form the handle. Tuesday JEF again tapped near its 50 day MVA (47.37) at its intraday low, but again pulled back over the 18 day to close. Volume rose to 132,400 (avg. 121k), increasing from the light volume we have seen through the handle. Off of the strong rebound looking for a bounce from here and a breakout. Excellent relative strength and good buying. Target: 62
BUY POINT: Bounce: 49.66 on volume of 150k. Stop: 47. Breakout: 52.20 on volume of 180k. Stop: 48.55 (7%).
POSITION: Bounce: Stock and/or July or October $45c to buy (JEF GI or JEF JI - no OI at this time for the October. Breakout: Stock and/or October $50c to buy (JEF JJ).

NYT (New York Times--$49.40; -0.55; optionable): Newspapers. Working on a forecast date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nyt.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 5-20-98 at a price of $73. Before that it announced in 1986 at a similar price. The company has sufficient shares for a 3:2 split.
STATUS: Breakout test. Broke out from a double bottom with handle in March, and then pulled into a flat base. NYT broke from that pattern earlier in May, reaching up to 51.05 before pulling back on a breakout test. A nice, low-volume dip, and NYT pulled back today on volume that continued down at 190k (avg. 490k). Still looking good, with excellent relative strength and good buying. Target: 61
BUY POINT: Over 51 on volume of 500k or better. Stop: 47.80
POSITION: Stock and/or October $45c to buy (NYT JI - 89 OI).

LSTR (Lanstar--$104.76; +6.91; no options): Trucking. Researching a new date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lstr.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that LSTR has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-16-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Great move! We were looking for a bounce from the 50 day MVA (96.60) to add to our long-term positions, and we got it in a big way. LSTR is one that has run very well for us, making several bounces up along its 18 day MVA (currently 100.35). We see strong trending stocks make several strong runs along that support between periodic tests of the 50 day. When LSTR pulled back, it held nicely and set up for a move back up, today volume kicked in at 166,500 (avg. 61,500). It is now back near its all-time high (105.32), and we can still add to stock positions in anticipation of it continuing a run up along the short-term MVA's.
BUY POINT: Still a buy up to 107, and we can add to positions on subsequent tests of the 18 day. Stock only.

TFX (Teleflex--$57.69; -0.64; no options): Conglomerate. Forecast to announce a split on 7-17-02 with earnings. The company has not confirmed a time for the release.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tfx.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in May 1997 at price $60. Before that TFX split its stock 3:2 in 1991 at a price of $40. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-26-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Not a strong break out of the recent ascending wedge, but TFX is holding up nicely. It pulled back today, but volume continued to fall (83k; avg. 127k) as TFX tested below the recent support of the 18 day (57.38) and recovered to close. Looking for a continued hold of the 18 day (prior highs are at 58), and for strong volume on a run from here. The high on the breakout attempt was 59.35. Excellent relative strength and good money flow. Target: 70.
BUY POINT: Over 59 on volume of 170k, with stock. Stop: 55.75

CTAS (Cintas--$53.80; +0.26; optionable): Business services. Working on a new announcement date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctas.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 1-18-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $54. The annual shareholder meeting was on 10-25-00 at which time additional shares were authorized.
STATUS: Still testing the breakout, holding the prior high and 18 day MVA (53.68). CTAS has been testing toward the 50 day (51.92) at intraday lows, today again dropping back to 52.70 before pulling back up as volume was back over the average at 1.15m (avg. 1.07m). With the loose doji over support with the higher volume, we can look at new positions on a bounce up. Target 65
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 55.50 on increased volume, with stock and/or August $50 calls to buy (NQQ HJ). Target 65.

EASI (Engineered Support--$47.92; +0.47; optionable): Aerospace/Defense. Forecast to announce a split on 5-29-02 before the open with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/easi.html
BACKGROUND: EASI last announced a 5:4 split on 2-1-2001 with a board meeting at a price of $28.50. Before that it announced on 6-12-98 at a price of $26.50. The company has sufficient shares for a 3:2 split.
STATUS: After a steady run up to complete the right side of its seven month cup base, EASI dropped back through its 50 day MVA (47.30) last week. It hit a low of 44.80 but has rebounded, although the move back up has not been strong, and is struggling at resistance. EASI is back over the 50 day, but edged up today with a second consecutive doji right at the 10 day (18 day at 48.43). Volume remained down at 132,500 (avg. 199k) as EASI managed to move back up to close after touching 46.21 at the intraday low. We will see what tomorrow brings with earnings and a possible announcement. At this stage, it would be an aggressive upside play even with the announcement, but still a possible play on a break upward through resistance. However, we will look at the action if there is no announcement and the stock breaks down.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: On an announcement, a move over 48.50 on above average volume. Stop: 45.75. Target: 58. Downside: No announcement and a drop through 46 on above average volume. Stop: 48.50. Target 42.
POSITION: Aggressive: August $45c to buy (UFE HI). Downside: August $50p to buy (UFE TJ - 52 OI).

PRE-SPLITS BEST PLAYS: Remember, we try to grab Pre-Splits as they break out of good patterns or as they start a run right before the split. Not looking for home runs, but looking for those $3 to $4 moves running into the split, watching for topping signs and potential resistance. Not huge money, but it can be very steady. We set our initial stops at the 7-8% range below the purchase price (or just below obvious support), and move them up on a move to preserve our profits.
1) FOSL - Still looking for the move
2) KSWS - Rested today
3) ATK - Aggressive but could show another move

FOSL (Fossil--$31.81; -0.14; optionable): Recreational goods. Splits 3:2 effective 6-10-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fosl.html
STATUS: FOSL made a promising start to a move Friday, but today tested all the way back to the support of the 18 day MVA (30.73), recovering to close. FOSL made a great move off of its 50 day (then 27, now 28.71), hitting 33.61 before its recent pullback to test the move. Still looking good as holding the 18 day and prior highs (30). Still targeting 36 on a pre-split run. Excellent money flow and buying.
PLAY: Over 32.29, with September $30c to buy (QFS IF - 60 OI). Stop: 30

KSWS (K Swiss--$45.98; -0.17; optionable): Footwear. Announced the split last Thursday after hours, as forecast! Splits 2:1 effective June 22.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/ksws.html
STATUS: KSWS took off on the announcement, running on sharply higher volume Friday but pulled back to close. It rested today, testing back below the short-term MVA's (18 day at 45.53), recovering to close as volume eased to 63,300 (avg. 95,500). Still looking good, watching for KSWS to hold support here and continue the momentum upward. The high (from earlier this month) is 48.12. Targeting 58.
PLAY: Aggressive: Over 47 on above average volume, with stock and/or July $40c to buy (SWU GH - 46 OI). Stop: 43.80

ATK (Alliant Techsystems--$104.75; -0.10; optionable): Aerospace/Defense. Splits 3:2 on or about June 11.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atk.html
STATUS: ATK has been steadily trending up, bouncing along the secure support of its 50 day MVA (104.23). After several solid runs along its 18 day MVA, ATK has come back to test the 50 day. However, the selling back to support has been on light volume, and today ATK showed a tight doji over the 50 day as volume rose a bit to 298,400 (avg. 336k). We do not want to see a breach of support here, especially after ATK failed to reach up to its prior high on the last run (115.40), instead stalling at 110. However, the doji over support looks good, and we will look for ATK to give us another good run going into the split. Target: 120.
PLAY: Over 107.33 (short-term MVA's), with August $100c to buy (ATK HT).

CONTINUING CANDIDATES BEST PLAYS: JCI is setting up a nice pattern.
1) DHR - Back through the 50 day
2) DRYR - Stalling and threatening fall back
3) AZO - Setting up on the test
4) ACDO - Still looking like a put

DHR (Danaher--$69.57; -1.83; optionable): General building materials.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dhr.html
STATUS: Made another test of the 50 day, climbing back over that level (70.63) last week but again stalling and making another lower high. Today DHR dropped back through the 50 day, dipping on stronger, but below average volume of 584,300 (avg. 1.07m). It is running back toward the consistent April-May lows near 69. DHR just tapped our put buy point at 68.80 on the last move down, and we will look for a drop through that level on much stronger volume for new or additional positions on a put down to a target of 63 (200 day 62.25).
BUY POINT: 68.70 on volume of 1.2m. Stop: 71.75
POSITION: September $75p to buy (DHR HO).

DRYR (Dreyer's Grand Ice Cream--$44.39; -0.48; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dryr.html
STATUS: DRYR made a great breakout in April, but after consolidating from 46-48, DRYR has fallen back. It has dropped back and is now struggling to hold the 50 day MVA (44.80) and prior highs at 44. After a strong drop through support last week, Thursday saw DRYR rebound, but today the stock again dropped back through the 50 day, recovering from an intraday low of 43.75. Still watching for high volume selling to kick in. Still targeting 38 with existing positions, and will look at new or additional positions on strong selling.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Through 43 on volume of 230k. Stop: 46
POSITION: September $50p to buy (QDF UJ - no OI as of yet).

AZO (Autozone--$81.31; -1.22; optionable): Auto Parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/azo.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in March of 1994 at a price of $58. The annual shareholder meeting was on 12-14-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized.
STATUS: AZO made a great move last week on earnings, breaking from its six-month cup with handle, bouncing from its 50 day MVA (72.50) and hitting a high Friday of 83.42). Very solid, and now it is coming back for a test. Today it sold back a bit, with volume continuing to be much lower than we saw on the recent run (down to 1.44m today; avg. 1.13m). Looking for a hold at the former highs at 80, and from there we can look at positions with AZO on a run back up. Target: 98
BUY POINT: Not quite there yet. After showing a hold of 80, a run back up on increased volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $75c to buy (AZO IO).

ACDO (Accredo Health--$54.01; -0.54; optionable): Health services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acdo.html
STATUS: Has been steadily trending down, recently taking out its 50 day MVA (56.42), hitting our put buy point and continuing down. It found some support in its February-March consolidation range, bouncing back up rather strong last Thursday from the 51 level. It has encountered resistance at the 10 day MVA (54.57), turning down from that level today, although volume was very low (297k; avg. 750k). The failure at the 10 day points to another downward move, so we are riding existing positions on a drop, and we can also look at new put positions on a strong drop. Target: 46
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Back through 53 on increased volume of 800k. Stop: 57
POSITION: August $55p to buy (DZU TK).

End Part 2 of 3

stock trading
stock split