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world stock market, us stock market
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11/03/09 Investment House Daily
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MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit alerts: None issued
Buy alerts: BRCD; HAL; PNC; USO; VNO
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
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Detailed chart-based analysis of the key index and leadership charts now included in the Market Summary Video. The Market Summary transcript will be forwarded shortly.
TO VIEW THE VIDEO MARKET SUMMARY CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/marketsummary.wmv
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SUMMARY:
- Stocks choppy but calming down ahead of FOMC rate decision.
- Dollar soars then reverses, reversing the market's fortunes.
- Factory Orders post 5 gains in 6 months but where are the orders?
- Buffett buys BNI. Just being a patriot, right?
- With a pullback in place the indices await news from the Fed to either prompt buying or continue the selling.
- Lots of data pre-FOMC and there will be opportunity in both directions.
Market moves shorten, volume declines as investors await the Fed decision.
It was another up and down session in the market. It was different from Monday, where there was massive intraday volatility with the Dow swinging 200 points and NASDAQ swinging 50 points. No, with the 26 points on NASDAQ and roughly 85 points on the Dow, things were calm on Tuesday. There has been a big uptick in volatility, not only as measured by the VIX but by the day-to-day back and forth trade that the VIX does not pick up as much, as well as the intraday moves. There has been serious back and forth, and if you did not have the Pepto-Bismol at hand, it was probably taking its toll on you to a certain extent.
Premarket was down solidly because the dollar was much stronger early on (1.4635 Euros versus 1.44768 Monday). The dollar surge continued early on, and that was putting a damper on the market once again. Premarket there was a shot in the arm as Berkshire Hathaway announced that it was buying BNI. Berkshire already owns quite a number of shares and was able to work a deal. That had everything hopped up a little and got investors hopeful that there may be some more M&A activity. After all, just on Monday night, SWK announced it was buying BDK. I think the new company is going to be called "Stanley Black and Decker." As one commentator put it, it sounds like a law firm. There is some merger activity ongoing, and that always gets investors excited as they look around and wonder who is next. The railroads were higher because Buffet came in and spent money. They were wondering if others would have to pony up and come to the table in order to keep up, or if there were values in the sector that could be bought cheaply now and show great profits down the road.
The market came up off of its lows, and the futures were looking better. They still did not recover, and the market opened weaker. It was not a massive selloff, but it was not very strong. The dollar was strong, but started to weaken off the bat, and it started giving back the gains that it acquired over night for the rest of the session. As it revered, the stock market reversed. Stocks moved to positive, moved back to negative, and they bounced all around the flat line. Some indices were positive, some were negative, and that is the way it closed as well. Some were positive, some negative, and there were no major gains. Then again, the market did come back from any kind of serious selloff that it could have been involved in and we saw the same old leaders come up as well, thanks to a weaker dollar. By the end of the day, the dollar had lost most of its gain (1.713 Euros, versus 1.478 Euros the prior session); it finished stronger but was still well off its highs. That was enough to turn the market; indeed, it turned the energy sectors, the industrials, and it turned all of the dollar-sensitive stocks back to the positive side. Energy closed higher as well, oil gained ($79.50, +1.37). Gold is on another tear ($1,085.20, +31.20) and it took off to a new high.
If there is improvement in the economic data, why is gold taking off again? It is for the same reasons I have talked about all along. There is the FOMC with loose credit, a cheap dollar, and other countries are firming up their currencies. We are not doing that here, although we may find out something to the contrary on Wednesday. Nonetheless, the gold did not seem to think that, and it took off to the upside once more.
Bonds closed with a yield a bit higher, such as the 10 year Note (3.47%, versus 3.43% on Monday). When yields are rising that means bonds are selling. When bonds rally, yields fall, so we saw yields moving up and investors were moving away. There is still that mix in the different markets. They are not all rowing together in what a clean economic picture would foretell. In other words, if all of the economic data were moving in one direction - up or down - you would expect the different markets to behave accordingly, but they are not. They are running every which way. That keeps things interesting and keeps the pundits guessing. It keeps us looking to tomorrow's FOMC meeting at 2:15 Eastern time to see what the Fed will say with respect to the dollar. That is where it all comes back to right now. The market has been hostage to the dollar's moves - moving up when the dollar falls, moving down when the dollar rises. The worry is now, that the Fed may say something. There is some jawboning ongoing already with the Fed saying that the dollar cannot stay down and they cannot stay loose with their policies forever. At the same time, the administration as well as Fed officials are saying they do not want to make the mistakes that Japan made in the 1980's. The ones they are citing are raising interest rates too rapidly and trying to strengthen their currency too rapidly, which would forestall any recovery. As I have discussed before, there are other factors involved in this that kept Japan in the doldrums for so long, but it does not seem to make a difference at this point because this is the path that the administration and the Fed are taking right now. I do not expect the Fed to come out and say much with respect to the dollar even though we have seen others such as New Zealand and Australia come in and support their currencies with rate hikes.
There were more earnings out on Tuesday, and they were not bad. MA beat just as Visa beat a couple of weeks ago. JNJ announced it would lay off 6-7% of its work force. Once again, we see that it is the large multinational corporations that are not creating jobs. They are net job losers, yet the current administration is kowtowing to the big corporations. They are not producing any new jobs and they are getting the deals cut to help support cap and trade and to support healthcare initiatives. They are trying to get them on board and giving them subsidies and juicy deals where they get exclusive rights and tax breaks for help building a smart grid and the like. That is not going to create many jobs however, and what they have been doing for the last 20 years is cutting jobs. They are not looking to create more jobs, they are looking to create more dollar revenue. That is what a company does and there is nothing wrong with that. When we have unemployment approaching 10%, however (and every small business I talk to says things are getting worse, not better), you have to wonder and worry about the staying power of this supposed recovery out of recession that we are in as Q3 GDP showed a 3.5% gain. It is keeping everyone worried, and the market is choppy in anticipation of what the Fed will do.
Again, I do not think the Fed is going to come out and make any major statements or changes. It cannot afford to because it does not want to forestall any recovery that just seems to be getting underway. Nonetheless, the worry over the past two weeks has taken a lot of the froth out of the market. It has left stocks in a good position to move higher if they get what they want - that the Fed is not going to do anything, and the dollar sells and stocks can thus rally. That may bring in the liquidity that starts that run to the year-end. It is still out there, and if the investors know it is still going to be there after the Fed announcement, then it should come back into the market, be pulled back in, and drive stocks higher. We just have to be ready.
TECHNICAL
INTRADAY
The market started lower. The SP500 gapped lower, it sold off hard, but it immediately started to come back. Even though it was very choppy, there was a jagged move higher up through the day. It did not close at the session high it hit mid-afternoon, but it did close right at the high. All the other indices showed this same kind of action.
INTERNALS
Overall, volume was lighter on the session. There was a good volume day on the NYSE on Monday, even though it was lower. On Tuesday, it fell to average. It was not a very strong day, down 10% on the NYSE. Volume was lower on NASDAQ as well; indeed, it fell below average as the index bounced higher. There was a doji on the candlestick chart on Monday, volume was lower, and there was a bounce on Tuesday on even lower volume. That tells us that the sellers are not that strong, and that makes sense when you are expected an important decision from the FOMC the following session. There are not a lot of people out there throwing money around when such a big decision is going to be made with respect the dollar and how free and easy credit is going to be. Other countries such as Australia and New Zealand have started raising interest rates and are supporting their currency that way. No one in the US thinks that we will start raising rates, but they want to see how strong the talk is and what the Fed feels it needs to do as far as raising rates and when. The Fed fund's futures are putting in a 50 basis point hike sometime in April of 2010. That might be a bit ahead of the curve even then because this Fed, with all of the spending the administration is anticipating, cannot afford to have any hiccup in the potential recovery.
CHARTS
There was a lot of sitting around today after the move last week where the market sold off. Indeed, Monday was volatile intraday, but it did not go anywhere in the end. That was very much the case on Tuesday. There were modest gains on the indices with only the Dow finishing lower, but everything was close to flat when volume is factored in along with the kind of action there was on the session.
On Monday, SP500 tapped down to its late-August peak where it held and bounced. It is having trouble at the 50 day EMA, although that is probably not going to act as resistance. It is not a strong level of resistance, and there is a September peak at 1075 is much stronger. If the FOMC says something positive, it may bounce higher. It could continue with its uptrend, but it is very important to watch what it does at 1075 when it does bounce. This is not a great bullish pattern at this point because there is a trend break, but is not an out-and-out bearish pattern either. Remember, this retracement by the SP500 has been a full 78% on the Fibonacci scale. That is a serious retracement, and you can start looking for reversals off of it. It does not mean it will be a reversal to the downside, but this is a significant change of momentum. You have to look at the quality of the move higher. Can it take out this September peak? What kind of volume is there? What kind of leadership is there when it makes the move? That will play into effect given that there has been such a steep retracement this time. It is something you have to pay attention to because not all pullbacks are created equal, and this one is more serious than the others.
NASDAQ is in a bit worse position. It bounced on the day, but made a lower low below the early-October low (the SP500 has not done that). It still holding at the August peak, so it is not in terrible shape right now. This bounce today did not resurrect any rebound or current rally, but the movement has not killed it off either. It has had a significant pullback as well, but even though it broke its trend and made a lower low, that does not mean it will take. There is a lot of liquidity still out there, and if the Fed gives the green light, that could turn things back in NASDAQ's favor and send it moving back up.
SP600 is similar to NASDAQ. It broke below the early-October low. It is trying to hold the range of support from the early-August peak, and it bounced modestly. There was not much trade on the NYSE, and it is still well below some resistance. The August peak is going to prove to be key resistance up at 310. The index closed at 302.67. If it gets a rally off the FOMC numbers, it does not have to go much further before we see whether it can take care of resistance. That is the key right now. We can look at all of the charts and can see what kind of resistance that we are dealing with. NASDAQ has resistance at 2100 - an initial level, but more than likely we are looking up near 2150 at the September peak. SP500 has resistance at 1050, but they are in the same shape as NASDAQ with the 1075 range from the September peak looking to be the serious resistance that it has to face.
The indices are in an inflection point. They have sold off hard. As noted, SP500 sold off a significant amount (78% on the Fibonacci), and that has you looking for potential reversals and at the quality of the bounce. The indices could easily roll over from here if they do not get what they want, particularly NASDAQ and SP600 as they have already made lower lows. The rest of the indices could fall as well if the Fed says it will have to tighten credit and may need to support the dollar. Even if the Fed says what investors want it to say (that they cannot afford to change the credit policy right now and will continue to print dollars and put our currency under pressure), there could still be a bounce. Then we have to look at the quality of that move as it gets up to 1075 range on SP500. Whether there is a lot of strength on that move with volume and leadership will tell the tale with respect to this bounce. The market has had a long run, has had a steeper pullback right now, and it has been a bit quicker as we know. It was not the drawn out pullback that there was in June and July, and that makes sense given a longer run in the market. That also means we have to be cautious with respect to piling in just because the Fed gives what a lot of investors think would be the green light. We have upside positions and we have been taking some more. We will continue to do that if we get that information, but we have to keep that in mind what we are going to do when the indices approach this resistance.
LEADERSHIP
With the dollar stronger earlier, everything was under pressure, but the same old leaders started to move higher as it improved, such as in energy. SLB showed a nice bounce off of the 50 day EMA and support at the September peak and the June peak in the prior base. BTU is showing a bounce as well off of the 50 day EMA. APA showed a nice bounce off its 50 day EMA and September peak as well. There is a double support layer there.
CAT is trying to bounce off its September peak, and DE is trying to bounce off of prior peaks. These industrials are not in bad shape, but the question is whether they can keep things moving.
In the financial sector, PNC is trying to make the break higher after consolidation of its October gap on earnings. AFC has a nice flag going and is in great position to make a move higher.
Metals are not out either. FCX made a bounce off of the 50 day EMA on top of the September peak. Do you see a pattern here? The strong stocks have had a pullback and a consolidation, and they are ready to move higher if they get the word. All of the dollar-related stocks fell as the dollar rallied, had its oversold bounce, and rose on concerns that the Fed would change its tune after New Zealand and Australia raised their rates and supported their currencies. They have all pulled back, and are now at a point where they can break higher depending on what the Fed announces.
AAPL filled the gap, but is holding its 50 day EMA and it is also holding at a consolidation range. It needed some time off, and now it may be ready to have some fun for the holidays.
GLD shot to a new high, showing excellent strength and clearing the consolidation range. It made a higher low and it tested that prior gap. It is off to the races again. It is stair-stepping its way higher after a good base and breakout.
THE ECONOMY
Factory orders rise as expected but they will need some new orders to keep going.
Factory orders rose (+0.9%. versus +0.8% expected, -0.8 in August) and have been up five out of the last six months. That sounds like gangbusters, but when you look at some of the other numbers, you can see that new orders (as seen on the ISM) are not very strong. Inventory levels are not going up. Factories are producing, but not that much. Remember, they were at zero last fall for at least two months, so any increase is nice, but it is not necessarily a huge increase and it is not racing things higher. Other data that shows low orders being placed in the various regions across the country and inventories that continue to decline, so right now there is no impetus to place new orders. There is not enough confidence that consumers and businesses will continue to buy.
Business investment has picked up, but it is not great. Consumption from the consumer has picked up, but it is also not great. It is better than business investment at this juncture, and that is leading some to look for a stronger holiday season than many anticipated. Last year was terrible (-1.9%) and one of the first declines this country has had in decades. We have not had that many declines in our holiday season consumption, but that was a big one last year. It is understandable why that happened last year, just as it is understandable why it will be a better season this year. There was nothing last fall, and there has been a lot of bad news the entire year. People want to buy something for Christmas and they want to feel good - having good gifts for the holidays is like comfort food. The question is whether consumers have enough income to have any kind of serious Christmas. That is the problem. There is a jobs report coming out on Friday that will tell a bit more, but we already know the score. The jobs number can say whatever it wants to say, but the weekly claims are still over 0.5M a week. There has not been a turnaround, and there is not going to be one by Christmastime that could make any difference for those people. If there is any buying, it is going to be from a pent-up desire to have a nice holiday. Unless incomes are better, it is not going to be a barnburner, but it will be better than it was last year.
I do not want to kick the economy while it is down or keep pooh-poohing on improving economic data because it is getting better (it is just not that great). The quality of this recovery is not the quality of past recoveries when there was a different kind of stimulus and different issues to deal with. We are not taking the bull by the horns, and we are not unleashing the US entrepreneurial spirit with tax incentives for small businesses and innovators. Instead, we are cutting deals with GE to go green, while we raise the price that all of the entrepreneurs and individuals will pay for their heat and electricity instead of empowering them to find better solutions. It is the carrot versus the stick, and this administration is going to beat us to death with the stick trying to get us to toe the line with green while rewarding big, fat companies like GE that are not creating jobs. That does not make sense to me, but I am a capitalist. I see things through a free enterprise, capitalist view, and I call it as I see it. Maybe it makes sense to someone else, but all the small business surveys I do show that they are not getting any stimulus and that they have no business. They are the ones that are not making the orders to factories because they do not see the business coming that will support that. They are not going to be caught in a heavy-inventory situation when business will not pick up to buy those items.
Is the Berkshire acquisition of BNI a reason for investors to take hope?
Tuesday Berkshire announced its biggest acquisition ever, so big Berkshire had to offer stock as part of the deal. So big Berkshire had to split its class B shares in order to help BNI owners not get hit with tax issues. The deal had the market abuzz, one because it was a big deal, and two because it was Buffett making the buy and his name carries cache.
CNBC is pretty much a Buffett brownnoser. Every time he breaks wind or calls in to the show everything is dropped and he gets first billing. CNBC is something like Buffett's own private news station and anchors such as Becky Quick drool so much over chances to get a sound bite with him that, to quote Frank Burns from 'M*A*S*H', they practically have to change their bras afterward. Wow. That has to be an all-time record digression on my part.
Anyway, after the deal was announced naturally other rail stocks enjoyed surges in their prices as well in the usual 'who is next' guessing game whenever an acquisition occurs. It is presumed, wrongly or rightly, that the prices must be right in the sector and that other suitors will be forced to show their hand or risk missing out altogether. CNBC touted this rather normal jump in prices as some kind of 'Buffett effect', i.e. a call that the entire economy was going to be just fine and Buffett was giving his seal of approval that we could just go about our business and our government will take care of us, etc.
Give me a break. Buffett is not some old kindly grandfather that bounces his grandkids on one knee while freely dispensing wisdom and money making tips to all that will listen. Buffett has the first dime he ever made and does nothing, repeat nothing, that does not directly benefit his companies. You only see him in the media when it benefits him. Six years ago when he was coming on CNBC and elsewhere (but it was a 'first on CNBC') talking about how the dollar was in trouble and would likely fall I received a cold call from a broker pitching the line that Buffett was worried about the dollar and thus I should be worried, blah, blah, blah. I actually listened to the guy and then asked if he had ever heard Buffett utter a word that was not designed to benefit investments Buffett WAS ALREADY IN? I also asked if he knew that Buffett, the great lover of the US, was SHORT the US dollar. After a bit more discussion the broker said he had not thought of it that way.
Of course, I digress further. In any event, Buffett does buy low and at the lowest price he thinks he can get at any time. He will wait a decade to buy, though at this point in his life that means he may not get many more buys. Still he waits until he thinks things are rock bottom and then moves in. In that sense it could be construed as a call on the US economy, but Buffett is patient and it could take 5 years or more to see the kind of returns that motivated his buy. Thus there is obviously a positive view of the US economic future intertwined with this deal, just not the 'buy now, buy immediately' implications as well as the 'patriotic motive' conclusions made by many after the deal was announced. Again, good grief.
THE MARKET
MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX: 28.81; -0.97
VXN: 28.88; -1
VXO: 26.98; -0.23
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.94; -0.09
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 48.3. Fell slightly from 49.5%. They are still holding up surprisingly well, indicating that there was indeed excessive belief that the rally would sustain itself. Bulls have held in the 48% to 50% range for several weeks now though that will start changing some now, and that is for the better in terms of a renewed upside move. Still well over the 35% level that is the threshold for what is considered a bullish climate. It does not mean things are necessarily bearish; that takes a reading in the 60% range. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level. Dramatic rise from 21.3% in November 2008, the bottom on this leg. This last leg down showed us the largest single week drop we have ever seen, falling from 33.7% to 25.3%. Hit 40.7% on the high during the rally off the July 2008 lows. 30.9% was the March low. In March the indicator did its job with the dive below 35% and the crossover with the bears. A move into the lower 40's is a decline of significance. A move to 35% is a bullish indicator.
Bears: 22.5%. Bears surprisingly show little strength despite the selling, barely moving from 23.1%. Bears have trended slightly lower the past several weeks but are mostly holding the line at this level. Now we expect them to jump, an upside positive. Hit a low of 21.3% on this leg. Rebounding some from the big drop 31.1% and 35.6%. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: +8.12 points (+0.4%) to close at 2057.32
Volume: 2.116B (-10.94%)
Up Volume: 1.237B (+15.819M)
Down Volume: 865.045M (-296.316M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.5 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.09 to 1
New Highs: 33 (+13)
New Lows: 42 (-14)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: +2.53 points (+0.24%) to close at 1045.41
NYSE Volume: 1.381B (-10.66%)
Up Volume: 929.4M (+102.282M)
Down Volume: 440.636M (-244.43M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.53 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.21 to 1
New Highs: 68 (+10)
New Lows: 49 (+4)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
DJ30
Stats: -17.53 points (-0.18%) to close at 9771.91
Volume DJ30: 231M shares Tuesday versus 242M shares Monday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
WEDNESDAY
There is a lot on the plate for Wednesday. There is the Challenger jobs report, the ADP monthly report, the ISM, crude oil, and then the FOMC decision at 2:15 Eastern time. That is all a warm up for the jobs report on Friday. This is a week chock full of economic data.
Elections are coming out tonight, and there is a chance for some upsets that could play into the bigger political picture with respect to healthcare, cap and trade, etc. It will not have a huge impact right now; if there is any, it will be down the road as we start seeing potential change in the administration's ability to put forth its policies that it wants to enact.
The main story is the FOMC meeting and what the dollar will do. The dollar was stronger early and stocks were down, then the dollar faded and stocks rallied back. The stocks have sold back at this point and taken the froth out of the market. They are in position to rally, but the patterns are not that great. The market is at an inflection point, and it wants to hear that there will be no tightening of credit, and that the Fed will keep the dollar weak. Industrials, energy, and related stocks could take off to the upside if that happens, and could push in that end of the year rally money and get things going again. The market is in a precarious place right now, and more so than I anticipated. It sold off and has come back, but it is not looking that strong. There is no new low on the SP500, but there is one on NASDAQ and the other indices. It would not take much to tip them lower if they do not get what they want.
We are at an inflection point. There were some upside plays we took today that looked good.
They will take off to the upside if the market hears what it wants, and we may get a rally into the FOMC number. I also want to look at some more downside plays. If the small caps and the IWM move up, there could be another chance to enter into more downside positions. There will be positions that are ripe for the picking. The growth sectors have been struggling, and if they do not hear what they want to hear, they could continue to struggle, even as some of the other sectors (those related to the dollar) do well. This could be a precursor to what we will see in 2010, which is more of a "you pick 'em" kind of market. The whole thing does not rise and fall, but we will trade in a range or have certain sectors as winners while others range trade or trend lower as losers. We will see what the Fed does and what the rest of the world does with their currencies, and we will see how that impacts our currency and consequently our stock market.
Tomorrow we will be waiting on the Fed a lot, and there may be a rally up into it. We should be patient and ready with some upside and downside plays. We will let the Fed come out and let the market go through its first gyration because it usually gives a head fake. It takes 30-45 minutes for it to shake out, or sometimes the whole session after the Fed announces is not to be trusted. Knowing that we have the jobs report on Friday, with that one-two punch, we will see how they trade. If we get some good entry points, then we can take some positions but not load the boat until there is a more definite trend (i.e., whether the market continues down from this bounce after it sold off, or if it can reverse things as liquidity comes back in).
I will see you on Wednesday and at the FOMC meeting as well.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2057.32
Resistance:
2060 is the August peak
2070 is the September 2008 intraday low
The 50 day EMA at 2080
2099 is the mid-September 2008 closing low
The 18 day EMA at 2105
2143 is the October range low
2155 is the March 2008 intraday low
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2177 is a low from March 2008
2191 is the October 2009 peak
The March up trendline at 2194
2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
Support:
2048 is the early October 2009 closing low
2016 is the early August peak
1984 from late September
1962 is the bottom of the August 2009 range.
1947 is the October gap down point
1897 is the October post gap intraday high.
1880 is the June peak
1862 is the July peak
The 200 day SM A at 1793
1786 is the November intraday high
1780 is the November 2008 closing peak
1773 is the May intraday peak
S&P 500: Closed at 1045.41
Resistance:
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high
The 50 day EMA at 1047
The 18 day EMA at 1062
1070 is the late September 2009 peak
The March/July up trendline at 1074
1078 is the October range low
1080 is the September 2009 peak
1101 is the October high
1106 is the September 2008 low
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
1185 from late September 2008
1200 from the July 2008 low
Support:
The August peak at 1040
The early October 2009 closing low at 1025
The early August intraday peak at 1018
The November 2008 peak at 1006 closing 1007.53 intraday
992 is the August 2009 consolidation low
956 is the June intraday peak
944 is the January 2009 high
935 is the January closing high
932 is the July peak
930 is the May peak
The 200 day SMA at 921
919 is the early December peak is bending
Dow: Closed at 9771.91
Resistance:
9835 is the late September 2009 peak
The 18 day EMA at 9853
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9918 is the September 2008 peak
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,963 is the July 2008 low
Support:
The 50 day EMA at 9688
9654 is the November 2008 high
9625 is the October 2008 closing high
9620 is the August 2009 peak
9430 is the early October low
9387 is the mid-October peak
9116 is the August low
9088 is the January 2009 peak
8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation
8934 is the December closing high
8878 is the June peak
8829 is the late November 2008 peak
8626 from December 2002
The 200 day SMA at 8610
8588 is the May high
8581 is the July peak
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
November 02 - Monday
Construction Spendin, September (10:00): 0.8% actual versus -0.2% expected, -0.1% prior (revised from 0.8%)
ISM Index, October (10:00): 55.7 actual versus 53.0 expected, 52.6 prior
Pending Home Sales, September (10:00): 6.1% actual versus 0.0% expected, 6.4% prior
November 03 - Tuesday
Factory Orders, September (10:00): 0.9% actual versus 0.8% expected, -0.8% prior (no revisions)
Auto Sales, October (14:00)
Truck Sales, October (14:00)
November 04 - Wednesday
Challenger Job Cuts, October (07:30): -30.2% prior
ADP Employment Report, October (08:15): -190K expected, -254K prior
ISM Services, October (10:00): 51.5 expected, 50.9 prior
Crude Inventories, 10/30 (10:30): 0.78M prior
FOMC Rate Decision, 11/4 (2:15): 0.25% expected, 0.25% prior
November 05 - Thursday
Productivity-Preliminary, Q3 (08:30): 6.5% expected, 6.6% prior
Initial Claims, 10/31 (08:30): 520K expected, 530K prior
Continuing Claims, 10/24 (08:30): 5750K expected, 5797K prior
November 06 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, October (08:30): -175K expected, -263K prior
Unemployment Rate, October (08:30): 9.9% expected, 9.8% prior
Average Workweek, October (08:30): 33.1 expected, 33.0 prior
Hourly Earnings, October (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Wholesale Inventories, September (10:00): -1.0% expected, -1.3% prior
Consumer Credit, September (2:00): -$10.3B expected, -$12.0B prior
End part 1 of 3
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