|
|
money investment, financial investment
* * * *
11/05/09 Investment House Daily
* * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit alerts: None issued
Buy alerts: NFLX; TNB
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: BKE
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the Daily alert service you can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdly.html
*******************************************************************
MARKET SUMMARY VIDEO: Detailed chart-based analysis of the key index and leadership charts are covered.
TO VIEW THE MARKET SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/MarketSummary.wmv
*******************************************************************
SUMMARY:
- Delayed reaction: market rallies a day after it gets its Fed present
- What stinking dollar? Market rallies without a dollar decline.
- Indices rally but they still have to test some key resistance to clear their good names.
- Same store sales post second consecutive monthly gain.
- Jobless claims better but still over 500K
- Productivity surges so hiring must be coming, right? Hmmm.
- Jobs reports dominates the headlines Friday, but whether liquidity re-emerges is the real key to year end.
Stocks finally show their liking for the Fed decision, rally without the dollar's aide.
Thursday the market rallied with more than 2% gains on the indices without the dollar rallying (something it has not been able to do of late). Indeed, the dollar was flat on the session (1.4877 Euros, versus 1.4906 Euros premarket). There was an impetus to move stocks higher and the futures were up. As the day wore on, the dollar strengthened back to flat, but it did not seem to affect stocks at all. It did affect energy, however. Oil was down somewhat ($79.79, -0.61). Gold was basically flat ($1,091.30, + 4.00) after the big move a couple of days ago when India bought a lot of gold to diversify out of US dollars. There is a demand for gold because other countries want it instead of dollars, and there are also the long-term inflation effects.
The market was able to rally without the dollar being there. What caused that was a delayed reaction to the FOMC decision. Interest rates will be left at zero for the foreseeable future and it is not going to step in to support the dollar. The Dollar Index rolled down slightly, and that is not versus the Euro; the dollar was down against a broad basket of currencies even though it was flat against the Euro on the session. The market was able to rise because the Fed is giving it what it wanted. After selling off on Wednesday, the market decided it was time to rally.
There were also decent same store sales. Not all of them beat expectations, but many of the companies beat their guidance. KSS was an example. Its growth was less than expected, but it raised its guidance. SKS had a modest gain (+0.7% versus an anticipated -3.6%). JWN gained as well (+6.5% versus +3% expected). These are considered the luxury areas, which are the last to go underground and the first to emerge when the economic recovery returns. That is not the case this time. The market and the economy have picked up, and other stocks have picked up in the retail area while luxury has not. That raises a red flag to me. That means this economic recovery is not as great as the administration and others are touting it to be. I have already said that this is not a normal, strong recovery - it is about half the strength (at best) of the early 1980's recovery. It is more akin to the malaise of the 1970's recovery in my book.
The wealthy have been holding onto their money instead of spending it, and I think this is the reason. They do not see this as a very good recovery from their perspective, and we still may have issues in 2010. Even though there were improvements in JWN and SKS, they were not great improvements. There may be issues if the luxury areas do not come into the picture. It is all backwards this year. There are the small-end Dollar Tree-type stores performing better, which you would expect in a recession, but the lower-end retailers are performing better than the luxury retailers. That is a bit disturbing. Nonetheless, it is the second up month for same store sales after over a year of declines. There is an uptick, but whether it is pent-up demand ahead of the holiday season or if it is a sign of a stronger trend remains to be seen. I have my doubts as to whether that will be the case given worries about the policies coming out of Washington such as healthcare, cap and trade, and the type of things that will raise taxes (mainly on the wealthy) and put our debt and solvency into question down the road. With that in mind, overall same store sales were better and the market moved higher as a result.
Jobless claims were a bit better as well (512K). The number was less than expected but is still over the 500K level, so that is very concerning. Continuing claims were low again, but when you take into consideration all of the claims, they actually ROSE 183K.
Productivity shot off the map (9.5% with 6.5% expected). It was not the fastest growth ever recorded, but it was with respect to manufacturing. It rose 13.7%, and that is the fastest pace of growth since the records began being kept in 1987. That is very impressive.
I will go into more detail later as to why the market got this shot in the arm. There is some economic data that is not bad at all and pointing to better economic recovery. With the one-two punch of good economic news along with the Fed keeping rates at 0%, the market decided to rally and it rallied quite well. The market closed with 2% gains on the indices, and although it is hard to argue with that, was it an impressive day in the bigger technical picture?
TECHNICAL
INTRADAY
The intraday action was the flip side of the Wednesday late selloff following the FOMC announcement regarding monetary policy. The market got what it wanted to hear, and there was somewhat of a delayed effect with the FOMC result. The market gapped higher and shot out of the gates early, clearing the high of late Wednesday afternoon. That was a bullish indication. It came back to test it and then continued higher for the rest of the session. At the end of the day, it did manage a new nominal high for the session. It was not a great new surge higher, but it had a steady uptrend for the entire session. It was a very solid day from a bullish perspective on an intraday basis.
INTERNALS
The advance/decline line was quite strong (3.5:1 on NASDAQ, 4:1 on NYSE). When there are those kinds of numbers, you can look at the small cap indices. The SP600 posted a nice gain, and that is where a lot of the upside came from as far as breadth. The small cap index was one of the downside leaders as the market sold off. There was a lot of selling in the small caps, and they have been rebounding over the past few sessions. It is not a surprise to see the positive reading as the market bounces back because the small caps were sold so hard. Whenever there is severe selling, when there is a rebound it is not surprising to see solid breadth if it deals with the small and mid-caps. When the larger indices bounce, such as NASDAQ or the Dow, you can see narrower breadth on a short covering or oversold bounce because often it is the big names that are sold off. The small caps were again leading to the downside. They hit a new lower low on this move, so it is not surprising to see strong breadth when the positions are covered that the shorts cover up somewhat ahead of the jobs report.
Volume was rather disappointing once again. Looking at the NYSE volume via the SP500, you see it was another downside day, and well below average, as the NYSE indices moved higher. That shows that the selling was still stronger than the recovery volume as the market has bounced back in early November. We still are not out of the woods with respect to whether or not the buyers have made a significant inroad into the selling. Volume was down on NASDAQ as well, falling almost 5% to 2B shares. That shows the continued three days of below-average volume after the above-average-volume selling that brought it down to this level. NASDAQ is rebounding. It is recovering through some resistance, but you have to be concerned with the volume as it gets up to a key level at the September peak.
CHARTS
The indices did what they needed to do in order to keep the recent advance alive. The market is at an inflection point as it has been for three prior sessions. SP500 was flirting with a lower low while NASDAQ and SP600 had already made a lower low on this pullback, so it was a key point as to whether or not it was going to bounce. The indices did bounce. There was a delayed positive reaction to the Fed announcement, and they put in a solid gain where they had to. The question now is whether they can break through the next resistance level.
Looking at resistance with the SP500, there is the mid-September peak that is important, but there is serious resistance in the October peak. Looking at a weekly chart, there is a trendline coming down from the 2007 peak, and that is a very important level. Another important level where the SP500 is sitting is at 1100. Remember, after the rally off of the bottom in 2002, there was a strong move in 2003 as the economy and market recovered and a year-long sideways consolidation in 2004. SP500 is not quite at 1100 yet (it closed at 1066 on the session), but it is getting in that gravitational range and closed at the bottom of the 2004 range. If you extend this back further, there was a significant bottom at that level in 2001, and it was tested again in early 2002 when the market recovered. This is a very significant area with two important resistance points, so it is no wonder that there is a struggle ongoing with respect to SP500. 1075 is a key level to break through near term, but after that, it still has serious issues to deal with near the 1100 range.
The NASDAQ is a little bit different, although essentially the same. It broke through the mid-September 2008 low today, and there is some pop to the move. The key level for NASDAQ is at the September 2009 peak. If we extend it back, there is a consolidation, a July 2008 bottom, a March 2008 bottom as well, and then in January of 2008 it also touched down at that level somewhat. There is a very serious level of resistance there, and this resistance line extends all the way back to 2004. It will take a serious amount of economic growth and belief that the economy is going to be considerably stronger in the future in order to break through it. There has already been a very serious run to this point. I am looking at 1300 all the way up to 2200, so there is a very serious run in place. To get higher, the market has to think there is serious economic growth ahead.
The SOX was a leader off of the bottom - it was very choppy, but it was a leader. It is having issues now. It has formed something of a bear flag, and it sold off hard with the SP600 (they were the two downside leaders). Back in September of 2008, it bounced down from support early in the year but finally broke through, then tested and held it in early October. It has gone through a serious support level, and it is bouncing back up as resistance. That is a bear flag, and we have to watch that. It will be a critical level for the semiconductors after this double top, a new lower low, and a rebound back to test a critical resistance level. It may not be there - I am looking to play this short. I will look at it on the weekend and will take another look tonight to see if it is worth it. Be ready for that if it turns over because it might be something to move into.
SP600 had something of a double top as well. It has come down and broken to a lower low, and it is rebounding in something of a bear flag just as with the SOX. There is serious resistance at the September and October peaks, but there is also key resistance at 310. If it is as weak as it appears to be, it could roll over. A lot of this will depend on the liquidity that is still out there that is not being used as it was intended (for loans, construction, etc). It is finding its way into the financial markets, and that could trump the near term bearish indication in the overall indices. It could trump them to the end of the year, and we will take advantage of it if it does. Indeed, we were buying upside again on Thursday because the stocks were showing that they were ready to be bought. I will gladly ride a move higher into the year-end, but what happens when the indices get up to this level of key resistance that we have seen? SP600 will be a bellwether here - if it gets up to the downtrend line as well as this key resistance level and it cannot break through by the end of the year, then we may see things turn back down as worries about the economy in 2010 come back to roost once more.
LEADERSHIP
It was a day of same store sales, and there were better-than-expected results and some upward guidance. There were decent moves in stocks. COST made a nice move higher on good volume over the past couple of sessions. GPS beat expectations and it had a nice volume surge; it took it up to the prior high and bounced it back, unable to make the breakout. JWN is considered a luxury retailer and it posted better than expected earnings. It has the volume, but its pattern is not one to feel warm and fuzzy about. It is maintaining a trendline, but it is getting erratic - it is not in a steady stair step higher. NFLX broke higher on earnings, had a nice flag, and broke higher on volume. That was a buy that was for sure.
Financials are not necessarily the best-looking group, but they had good moves today. Some stocks such as ACN looked fine, and TROW was up as well. It was not a huge move, but had a great pattern and is getting some volume coming into the upside after holding a nice gap higher. It filled it and looks ready to move higher.
TNB in industrials had a nice break higher. It has a beautiful pattern - a breakout, a flag, and then a break higher out of the flag on strong volume. That is classic textbook action. DE did not make a huge move, but was up on the session and has a nice base under it. It may look ragged, but it has held support, a potential resistance level, and it looks like it will pop through that. In addition, once it clears, it has room to run up to the 58-60 range, and you cannot complain about that kind of pattern too much.
Techs were in the headlines with CSCO reporting and Chambers seeing better things ahead for his company and the Enterprise space. It gapped higher, but that is not exactly a beautiful pattern. It was trending higher, it broke lower, and it is trying to come back. It can do it - it gapped higher and it can run, but it did not gap through this major resistance area. If it had, it would be off to the races, but it is equivocal right now, and I would not put my money there. AAPL had a gap higher on its earnings, and it has come back and filled. It has gapped up the last two sessions off the 50 day EMA. It cleared a resistance level - not bad but definitely somewhat sloppy. That is not something I want to run after. It is a so-so pattern and so-so movement at this point, but one cannot complain because it has put in a lot of gain for us. I am more than willing to let it rest right now.
Semiconductors had some good moves on the session with a 5% move in VSEA. It got up to a serious resistance level, and volume tailed off as it made the move. That is not a strong move, and I am seeing a lot of that. This is a leadership group and it is not doing that well. NVLS was trending higher. It gapped below its trendline to start October and now has made its way back up but on seriously deficient volume. It is going to get back up to the resistance point and the 50 day EMA, and it may get a cold welcome at that level. It may turn over and do some selling.
GLD had a huge day today as well as on Tuesday. There was a lot of buying from India - something akin to $30B worth of gold, and that shoved it higher. It has stalled a bit after that, but it broke to a new high and that is a key move. You cannot ignore the move that was made regardless of the reason for the move. There is demand for gold as countries diversify out of dollars into hard stuff. They are concerned that all the central banks of the world are printing too much money whether they are US dollars or British pounds. I am not saying that we will have $100T notes in the US any time soon, but there is concern that there is too much money out there, and they are buying gold. There is no worry for inflation right now, but there is long term when there are trillions of dollars sloshing around (particularly if they start coming back on shore in the US).
The Dollar Index has trended down. It made a bounce ahead of the FOMC meeting. It has leveled off at some resistance and is now backing down. The question is whether it will make a higher low and turn back up. The reason that is not answered at this point (and another reason that throws doubt on the dollar) is revealed when you look at some of the ETFs that play the dollar. There is a Dollar Index bullish fund and there is the same downtrend that there is in the Dollar Index, but now there was a huge volume spike. As the dollar has faded back, this ETF started to as well. Then, boom, it shot way up. That is likely a lot of short covering ahead of the jobs report in case it is better than expected. We are going to pay attention to that because there is a lot of upside volume. Maybe that is all just short covering ahead of the FOMC meeting and the jobs report on Friday, but that is very interesting because it looks as if some are putting their money where their mouth is and not just short covering. We will see what happens as the dollar trade plays out over the next few days.
THE ECONOMY
Jobless claims on the mend, sort of.
The jobless claims were better than expected (512K versus 522K expected). That is not bad, and it was revised slightly upward the prior week to 532K from 530K. There is improvement again, but it is still above 500K new claims week after week after week. That was the lowest level since January of this year, but that does not give much comfort because it has gone down only to rally back. There is definitely a decline ongoing, but it is nowhere near where it needs to be at this point. That is very disconcerting.
Continue claims were lower (5.749M versus 5.75M expected). The prior week they were revised back up to 5.817M from 5.797M. When you add all claims back in - not just the continuing claims measured by this report but all claims in all other areas of support - you can see that the continuing claims rose 183K. Congress extended benefits today for many people who are chronically unemployed. They will be staying on the rolls, so we will not see this trend lower necessarily. Despite what you may hear from the optimists, it is a fact that the numbers are declining because people are falling off the rolls. They have exhausted all of their benefits and there is nowhere for them to turn, so they are no longer counted; they seem to disappear, but are still out there looking for work. It is a very difficult situation right now, and tomorrow we may see the unemployment rate hit 9.9%, or maybe 10%. As you can see, that has not turned things. The positive is that the last thing to turn is unemployment.
Productivity indicates hiring should come in a normal recovery, but this is not a normal recovery.
Productivity for Q3 jumped 9.5%, topping the 6.5% expected and the 6.9% in Q2, which was revised up from 6.6%. We are seeing huge productivity gains. As one commentator put it, companies have found a way to squeeze even more blood out of a stone; they have to get more efficient in their production. There is production, but not a lot of new orders coming in or going out, so that may be why they are not willing to hire employees. In other words, they will just do the work they have, incorporate technology when they can, expect more out of the people they have right now, and get by without having to hire more workers. Many people are saying that there is no way that they can get by without picking up new employees. Historically, you get new hires when productivity hits 3% or better, but the problem is that history is not playing out right now. In Q2 and Q3, productivity was above 3%, but we have seen no gains in employment (in fact, there have been continued losses). In the 70's, there were productivity gains but not the corresponding job gains. This is nothing new, but it points to the kind of recovery we are having and the kind of malaise there was in the 1970's. I have been talking about that for months. With the policies we are promulgating out of Washington, we are going to get the same kind of results that we had in the 1970's. We somehow thought we would get a different result with the same policies of the 70's, but it is not happening. We are getting the same result, and that is high productivity, but no jobs gains.
Output gained 4%, and that may sound impressive, but you have to consider where you are coming from. At this point, output was so low from last year that it only puts them at half the level where they should be; indeed, the output is back at 2005 levels. That is how far down our output has fallen, such that a gain of 4% does not even get us close to where we were. It is all relative. Where did the ball start moving? We have not caught up to where we were 3 years ago, and that puts it in perspective. Many commentators were saying that companies will need to rehire and pick up those workers that they laid off, but how did companies make money during Q2 and Q3? They did not have a lot of revenue growth (none in Q2), so they were cost cutting and laying people off. JNJ announced that it will lay off 8,500 people (67% of its workforce). They are still laying people off and still cost cutting, and that is how they made their gains. Are they going to want to go back and hire these people?
They are ramping up productivity. At some point, it will have to turn, but consider that the reason that they are not hiring is that they do not like what they see down the road. There is a lot of uncertainty out there. There is a lot of uncertainty with healthcare. Do they want to bring in a bunch of people if they have to pick up healthcare for them or dump them into the public system? That is a big question. Also, no one knows what will happen with corporate taxes. There is a lot of talk about maybe helping them out, but I think that is just bartering to get what they want with respect to healthcare and cap and trade. Then, of course, there is cap and trade itself, which will be a huge expense on corporations of all sizes and shapes. These companies do not want to let go of money they have in their war chest by hiring new people if they do not know what will happen with respect to taxes, how this will impact their business, and whether or not they will actually need those people once they bring them on. It is very expensive to hire people or even to bring people back on. It is expensive because you have to go through the paper work and, believe me, that is not an easy thing to do (if you run a small business, you know what I am talking about with respect to what the states and the federal government require).
It is not necessary for companies to rehire people just because productivity jumps up, and they will likely need to see very strong recovery and get back to levels near where we were before they consider it time to hire anyone. This is a weak recovery that we have ongoing and companies know that. Chambers at CSCO says that he is seeing that Enterprise business and other businesses are picking up quite nicely, but that is a long way from being very strong. It is all relative, remember. This starting point was extremely low, so the recovery levels we see do not necessarily compare to every recovery we have seen in the past. This is an oddball, because we are pursuing policies that do not lead to a rip-roaring recovery. We will get a recovery - the economy has to get better after coming to a standstill - but the question is how strong it will be. Unfortunately, it is not that strong. We will see a bit more of the picture with the jobs report on Friday, but can you really trust that jobs report if it comes in with a lower jobs losses? To a certain extent, you can because the Challenger report says this was the lowest planned layoffs in over 17 months. We could expect to see fewer jobs lost, but the weekly claims keep saying that there are more and more people unemployed. We are still losing jobs as opposed to stopping the train and turning it the other way. The real story now is in the household survey. It is going to be close to 10% versus the non-farm payrolls, which do not make a lot of sense when you look at the productivity numbers. How could they be starting to ameliorate the job losses if the productivity is rising and they are not hiring any more people? There is some food for thought as we take in tomorrow's jobs report and decide whether or not to believe it.
THE MARKET
MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX: 25.43; -2.29
VXN: 25.84; -2.05
VXO: 24.54; -2.17
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.87; +0.05
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 48.3. Fell slightly from 49.5%. They are still holding up surprisingly well, indicating that there was indeed excessive belief that the rally would sustain itself. Bulls have held in the 48% to 50% range for several weeks now though that will start changing some now, and that is for the better in terms of a renewed upside move. Still well over the 35% level that is the threshold for what is considered a bullish climate. It does not mean things are necessarily bearish; that takes a reading in the 60% range. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level. Dramatic rise from 21.3% in November 2008, the bottom on this leg. This last leg down showed us the largest single week drop we have ever seen, falling from 33.7% to 25.3%. Hit 40.7% on the high during the rally off the July 2008 lows. 30.9% was the March low. In March the indicator did its job with the dive below 35% and the crossover with the bears. A move into the lower 40's is a decline of significance. A move to 35% is a bullish indicator.
Bears: 22.5%. Bears surprisingly show little strength despite the selling, barely moving from 23.1%. Bears have trended slightly lower the past several weeks but are mostly holding the line at this level. Now we expect them to jump, an upside positive. Hit a low of 21.3% on this leg. Rebounding some from the big drop 31.1% and 35.6%. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: +49.8 points (+2.42%) to close at 2105.32
Volume: 2.068B (-4.7%)
Up Volume: 2.002B (+902.866M)
Down Volume: 220.864M (-885.196M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 3.56 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.53 to 1
New Highs: 50 (-1)
New Lows: 25 (-16)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: +20.13 points (+1.92%) to close at 1066.63
NYSE Volume: 1.292B (-4.3%)
Up Volume: 1.103B (+479.405M)
Down Volume: 173.062M (-547.585M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 4.07 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.29 to 1
New Highs: 112 (+18)
New Lows: 32 (-8)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
DJ30
Stats: +203.82 points (+2.08%) to close at 10005.96
Volume DJ30: 211M shares Thursday versus 224M shares Wednesday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
FRIDAY
The jobs report is out on Friday, and that is going to be the big story. It has been that way for months, and the question is whether there will be positive job growth. There are some out there positing that we could see positive job growth right now in October, and maybe we will. Maybe that is what it will show, but I do not know how many people will believe it. If the market gets it, it will get a boost. The market got a boost today from the FOMC decision, albeit a day late. If it gets more good news with the jobs report, it could continue to run. We will let it run. We have some upside positions that we are willing to let run, and if the liquidity flows back in and pushes them higher, that is great. We also have to look at downside positions because the indices did what they had to do for the session, but they did not do anything more. They still have serious resistance ahead, and they could run up into the old high on SP500 from the October peak. They could make that by the year-end and maybe go a little bit further - or even before year-end - but that does not mean they are going to break out and continue to run. We will play what the market gives, and if the liquidity comes in again, that is fine, I am concerned at the dichotomy we have seen lately. Some of the big funds are content with the gains they have made, and others want to get in on the action. The question is who will have the most money to put to work, and whether those that want to get in on the action and drive thing higher be able to do so by dumping that extra liquidity into the market.
We are going to play some more upside, but there have been gaps two days in a row. Many good stocks have gapped two days in a row with good volume on some, and low volume on others. Overall there was low volume, so we need to be careful especially stepping in on Friday. We might not do a lot tomorrow. We may take some downside as a hedge if I see stocks move up and stall out. At this point, it is all liquidity-driven, but with the indices in equivocal patterns right now, we can step into some of the good downside setups and then play a move down if it occurs. Some of these may still fall even if the overall market moves up. They have rebounded three days on low volume to resistance. That is a classic point where they could roll back over.
The market is not out of the woods at all, and it could still rally into the end of the year if it gets liquidity. We do not want to get too extended either way because I do not think all of the players that were pushing it higher up through October are still in the market at this point. They may want to sit on their gains for the rest of the year and take profits if they feel it is necessary, as we have seen over the past three weeks when the market sold back as the dollar rebounded. We will see what the jobs report says, and that always makes an interesting Friday. Have a great evening.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2105.32
Resistance:
2099 is the mid-September 2008 closing low
2143 is the October 2009 range low
2155 is the March 2008 intraday low
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2177 is a low from March 2008
2191 is the October 2009 peak
2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
Support:
The 50 day EMA at 2080
2070 is the September 2008 intraday low
2060 is the August peak
2048 is the early October 2009 closing low
2016 is the early August peak
1984 from late September
1962 is the bottom of the August 2009 range.
1947 is the October gap down point
1897 is the October post gap intraday high.
1880 is the June peak
1862 is the July peak
The 200 day SM A at 1799
S&P 500: Closed at 1066.63
Resistance:
1070 is the late September 2009 peak
The March/July up trendline at 1078
1078 is the October range low
1080 is the September 2009 peak
1101 is the October high
1106 is the September 2008 low
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
1185 from late September 2008
1200 from the July 2008 low
Support:
The 50 day EMA at 1047
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high
The August peak at 1040
The early October 2009 closing low at 1025
The early August intraday peak at 1018
The November 2008 peak at 1006 closing 1007.53 intraday
992 is the August 2009 consolidation low
956 is the June intraday peak
944 is the January 2009 high
935 is the January closing high
932 is the July peak
930 is the May peak
The 200 day SMA at 923
919 is the early December peak is bending
Dow: Closed at 10,005.96
Resistance:
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,963 is the July 2008 low
Support:
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak
The 50 day EMA at 9703
9654 is the November 2008 high
9625 is the October 2008 closing high
9620 is the August 2009 peak
9430 is the early October low
9387 is the mid-October peak
9116 is the August low
9088 is the January 2009 peak
8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation
8934 is the December closing high
8878 is the June peak
8829 is the late November 2008 peak
8626 from December 2002
The 200 day SMA at 8627
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
November 02 - Monday
Construction Spending, September (10:00): 0.8% actual versus -0.2% expected, -0.1% prior (revised from 0.8%)
ISM Index, October (10:00): 55.7 actual versus 53.0 expected, 52.6 prior
Pending Home Sales, September (10:00): 6.1% actual versus 0.0% expected, 6.4% prior
November 03 - Tuesday
Factory Orders, September (10:00): 0.9% actual versus 0.8% expected, -0.8% prior (no revisions)
Auto Sales, October (14:00)
Truck Sales, October (14:00)
November 04 - Wednesday
Challenger Job Cuts, October (07:30): -50.7% actual versus -30.2% prior
ADP Employment Report, October (08:15): -203K actual versus -198K expected, -227K prior (revised from -254K)
ISM Services, October (10:00): 50.6 actual versus 51.5 expected, 50.9 prior
Crude Inventories, 10/30 (10:30): -3.94M actual versus 0.78M prior
FOMC Rate Decision, 11/4 (14:15): 0.25% actual versus 0.25% expected, 0.25% prior
November 05 - Thursday
Productivity-Prel, Q3 (08:30): 9.5% actual versus 6.5% expected, 6.6% prior
Initial Claims, 10/31 (08:30): 512K actual versus 522K expected, 532K prior (revised from 530K)
Continuing Claims, 10/24 (08:30): 5749K actual versus 5750K expected, 5817K prior (revised from 5797K)
November 06 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, October (08:30): -175K expected, -263K prior
Unemployment Rate, October (08:30): 9.9% expected, 9.8% prior
Average Workweek, October (08:30): 33.1 expected, 33.0 prior
Hourly Earnings, October (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Wholesale Inventories, September (10:00): -1.0% expected, -1.3% prior
Consumer Credit, September (2:00): -$10.0B expected, -$12.0B prior
End part 1 of 3
|
money investment
financial investment
|
