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trend trading stock, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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NEW FEATURE: Each play contains an additional link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. We hope you enjoy this new addition.
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Upside:
Play Date: 11/07/2009
DE (Deere & Co.--$47.16; -0.95; optionable): Farm and construction equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/de.html
After Hours: $47.16
EARNINGS: 11/25/2009
STATUS: DE broke out from a 6 month trading range in late October and has come back to test that break. It held at the August and September peaks and bounced Thursday, looking ready to make the next move. Friday it tried but faded back to the 10 day EMA (46.89). Still a nice pattern and really like how there is a lot of open field to run in from this level on up to 58-60. Ready to move in with some positions as DE continues this move higher.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/DE.wmv
Volume: 4.667M Avg Volume: 5.538M
BUY POINT: $48.23 Volume=6.5M Target=$58.95 Stop=$44.98
POSITION: DGV AU - Jan. $47c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/de.html
Play Date: 11/07/2009
JBLU (Jetblue Airways--$5.24; +0.41; optionable): Regional airlines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jblu.html
After Hours: $5.24
EARNINGS: 10/22/2009
STATUS: ABCD. Nice orderly and well-formed 4.5 month pattern has set up the next move and indeed on Friday JBLU was making that move higher. It peaked in September with a strong surge and then made the 4 points to the pattern through early November. That Friday burst took it through the 200 day SMA (5.02), setting the upside in motion. After such a nice surge a stock will often test. A wave at the 200 day would be a great opportunity to get in, but if JBLU continues higher from here we can start some positions as there is still plenty of upside to the top of the pattern.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/JBLU.wmv
Volume: 7.315M Avg Volume: 7.526M
BUY POINT: $5.32 Volume=8.5M Target=$6.84 Stop=$4.95
POSITION: JGQ AA - Jan. $5c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jblu.html
Play Date: 11/07/2009
PII (Polaris--$44.51; +0.61; optionable): PWC, snowmobiles, 4-wheelers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pii.html
After Hours: $44.16
EARNINGS: 10/15/2009
STATUS: ABCD. Something of an ABCD pattern here as well. PII shot higher in October through its earnings mid-month. It gapped higher and rallied further on the results but then it peaked and rolled back down the past two weeks. Last week PII started to bounce, using the September peak and the 50 day EMA as support. Excellent setup and a good start to the upside move. Have to trust the pattern, and if PII can continue the move we are looking to step in with a partial position for now. Would love a test back to the 18 day EMA (43.94) to start the week as that would be a good entry point.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/PII.wmv
Volume: 290.352K Avg Volume: 341.448K
BUY POINT: $44.62 Volume=500K Target=$52.88 Stop=$41.31
POSITION: PII CI - Mar. $45c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pii.html
Play Date: 11/06/2009
RMBS (Rambus--$16.61; +0.18; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rmbs.html
After Hours: $16.69
EARNINGS: 10/22/2009
STATUS: Rolling. RMBS is in a rolling range the past three months, banging down at 16 and then rallying to 19.50 or so. It just completed a leg lower to the bottom of the range with the October selling, and gapped higher Wednesday off the bottom of the pattern. Continued Thursday and then Friday gapped lower and recovered to positive in a show of some strength. Not a lot of trade but looking to let the pattern work for us and roll RMBS back up to the peaks for a very solid gain in a well-established pattern.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/RMBS.wmv
Volume: 1.217M Avg Volume: 2.848M
BUY POINT: $16.78 Volume=3M Target=$19.45 Stop=$15.61
POSITION: BNQ AC - Jan. $15c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rmbs.html
Downside:
Play Date: 11/06/2009
ITT (ITT Corp.--$51.93; +0.08; optionable): Manufacturing machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itt.html
After Hours: $51.81
EARNINGS: 10/30/2009
STATUS: Bear Flag. After breaking lower in early October and rupturing its trend, ITT then surged to a new post-low peak, gapping higher mid-month. It immediately reversed, however, and then after trying to hold, gapped lower to end the month, gapping below a key support level at 52. Like those gaps through support. It sold but then rebounded some, only to bump up against 52 late last week and start to stall. We are looking for a turn down from here given the lower volume on the rebound and the stall at resistance. As it turns we can move in with the downside play. A run to the target near the early October low lands a 74%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/ITT.wmv
Volume: 887.775K Avg Volume: 1.598M
BUY POINT: $51.58 Volume=2M Target=$48.11 Stop=$52.72
POSITION: ITT MJ - Jan. $50p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/itt.html
Play Date: 11/06/2009
JNPR (Juniper Networks--$25.33; -0.67; optionable): PC networking, communication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnpr.html
After Hours: $25.33
EARNINGS: 10/22/2009
STATUS: Bearish reversal. JNPR started to struggle September on into October, making new nominal highs but then reversing immediately. The most dramatic was the last week of the month when it gapped higher on earnings and then reversed in a 4 day selloff that took it below the 50 day EMA (26.10) and its March/September up trendline, now at 26.50. JNPR spent the past 7 sessions bouncing up and down, bumping up at the 50 day but unable to punch through. Thursday it showed a doji at that level and Friday it turned down on a volume rise. Looking for a move down toward support at 23. A move to that level lands a 49%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/JNPR.wmv
Volume: 7.663M Avg Volume: 8.462M
BUY POINT: $25.22 Volume=10M Target=$23.11 Stop=$26.21
POSITION: JUX MZ - Jan. $26p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jnpr.html
Play Date: 11/07/2009
NVLS (Novellus Systems--$20.37; +0.10; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvls.html
After Hours: $20.57
EARNINGS: 10/21/2009
STATUS: Bear flag. Chips are under pressure, and NVLS shows how quickly buying can turn. It rallied into October and surged on its earnings report, hitting a new rally high. It reversed the next session and sold off through the end of October, then gapped lower last Tuesday. It rebounded the remaining sessions of the week, but on pitiful volume. Friday it showed a doji at resistance, moving through the 50 day EMA (20.48) intraday and then reversing off that level to flat. Looking for further selling from here to take it back down to a lower low. A move to the target lands a 63%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/NVLS.wmv
Volume: 1.887M Avg Volume: 4.366M
BUY POINT: $20.08 Volume=4.6M Target=$17.11 Stop=$20.88
POSITION: UES MF - Jan. $30p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nvls.html
CONTINUING PLAYS IN POSITION TO MOVE:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/05/2009
BWLD (Buffalo Wild Wings--$42.52; -0.02; optionable): Casual eateries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bwld.html
After Hours: $42.40
EARNINGS: 10/27/2009
STATUS: Triangle. Tried the move Friday but faded to flat on no volume. Still a favorite setup and if it continues the move we are ready to move as well. To recap: BWLD is breaking higher in a 9 week triangle that formed on the heels of a 5 month cup with handle; something of a base on base pattern has set the stage for a good move. BWLD made us some good money on its last run in the summer and it looks ready to move again after this series of higher lows along the 50 day EMA. Looking for a continued move higher to start some positions. Friday so not likely a full position unless BWLD is showing some hot and spicy moves.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/BWLD.wmv
Volume: 155.245K Avg Volume: 423.462K
BUY POINT: $42.64 Volume=635K Target=$48.95 Stop=$39.77
POSITION: BQU CH - Mar. $40c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bwld.html
Play Date: 11/05/2009
HMSY (HMS Holdings--$43.09; +0.54; optionable): Business services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hmsy.html
After Hours: $42.70
EARNINGS: 10/30/2009
STATUS: Test breakout. Moved higher Friday but no volume and we held off on moving in. May get a bit of a test to start the week and we would use that as an entry point, but if it does not come back HMSY is still in good position to move in. To recap: HMSY gapped higher on its earnings to end October, clearing a 13 week base. Strong volume and a nice gap, coming back to fill it this week or at least most of it. Nice bounce Thursday off near support and we are looking for a continued move higher to a new all-time high.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/HMSY.wmv
Volume: 202.088K Avg Volume: 283.83K
BUY POINT: $42.94 Volume=400K Target=$48.95 Stop=$40.98
POSITION: QHT CH - Mar. $40c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hmsy.html
Downside:
Play Date: 11/04/2009
ANN (Ann Taylor--$13.04; +0.09; optionable): Women's apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ann.html
After Hours: $13.04
EARNINGS: 11/20/2009
STATUS: Bear flag. Gapped lower Friday but recovered to flat. Still weak as volume was light, and looking for that roll lower this week. To recap: Retail was up and ANN along with it, but it is now correcting back. Doesn't mean it is all over, but there are downside opportunities as the correction occurs. After peaking in September ANN has stepped lower, trying to hold the 50 day EMA (14.29) in early October, bouncing from there, but then giving it up in late October. It sold hard and has worked laterally, trying to move higher, but it has had little upside success. With that weak bounce we are looking for ANN to turn back down and sell off in another 3 point or so move as it has down on the first two legs lower. A move to the target lands a 52%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/ANNPlay.wmv
Volume: 1.152M Avg Volume: 2.614M
BUY POINT: $12.98 Volume=3M Target=$10.52 Stop=$13.97
POSITION: ANN MC - Jan. $15p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ann.html
Play Date: 11/04/2009
ASH (Ashland--$35.45; -0.36; optionable): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ash.html
After Hours: $35.45
EARNINGS: 10/28/2009
STATUS: Bear flag. Rallied a bit higher Friday, tapping the 10 day EMA on the high (36.31) but then reversing for a loss and showing a tombstone doji on the candlestick chart. Moved the buy point to accommodate this move and like the setup even more. To recap: Solid trend higher into September, then ASH started to falter. A good run and earnings were coming up in October; that makes it a good time to test and consolidate ahead of the earnings. ASH tested to the 50 day EMA (38.33) and bounced, then gave it up in late October after testing it and looking as if it could hold. Earnings came out and that was it; ASH gapped lower and through the 50 day. It tried to hold after that initial gap at some support at 35. As with ANN, ASH has been unable to bounce back with any significance. Indeed it turned lower Wednesday on very strong, rising volume, closing near the session low. Ready to move in as ASH continues to the downside. A move to the target lands a 48%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/ASHPlay.wmv
Volume: 1M Avg Volume: 1.378M
BUY POINT: $34.88 Volume=2M Target=$30.05 Stop=$36.89
POSITION: ASH MG - Jan. $35p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ash.html
Play Date: 11/04/2009
IWM (Ishares Russell 2000--$58.08; +0.04; optionable)
After Hours: $58.01
STATUS: Bear flag. Bounded up to the 50 day EMA on the Friday high (58.58) and then slid back to flat. That shadow up to the resistance indicates that the small caps don't have the juice right now to move higher and are indeed set up to fall some more. To recap: After those twin peak double tops spanning September and October, IWM broke lower in October, clearing the 50 day EMA (58.72), selling sharply the last week of that month. It caught some support at 55 where it should have and bounced starting Monday. Fortunately IWM had already made us a bunch of money at that point. With this bounce up to the resistance at 57.50 and the descending 10 day EMA (57.80) followed by a reversal to close at the Wednesday low, IWM looks ready to head lower again. Looking to move in as IWM continues lower. A move to the target lands a 52%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/IWMPlay.wmv
Volume: 56.206M Avg Volume: 50.7M
BUY POINT: $57.11 Volume=75M Target=$53.00 Stop=$58.74
POSITION: DIW XE - Dec. $57p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/iwm.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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