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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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NEW FEATURE: Each play contains an additional link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. We hope you enjoy this new addition.
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Upside:
Play Date: 11/10/2009
JOSB (Joseph A. Banks--$43.10; -0.30; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/josb.html
After Hours: $43.40
EARNINGS: 09/02/2009
STATUS: ABCD. JOSB bounced last week, forming a short double bottom this month. That set what looks to be the D point in a 4.5 month ABCD pattern. Rallied up to the 50 day EMA (43.27) Monday and Tuesday, unable to move higher, pausing with the market. JOSB may hold in this range a bit more, but when it makes the next break higher and moves through the 50 day we are ready to move in. Like how it has formed a bull flag on the 60 minute chart, indicating this is a good entry point.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/JOSB.wmv
Volume: 242.717K Avg Volume: 389.97K
BUY POINT: $43.33 Volume=450K Target=$48.88 Stop=$40.31
POSITION: QZS AH - Jan. $40c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/josb.html
Play Date: 11/10/2009
RIG (Transocean--$88.50; +0.35; optionable): Offshore drilling rigs, services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rig.html
After Hours: $88.50
EARNINGS: 11/04/2009
STATUS: RIG gapped up off a two week test of the 50 day EMA (85.17) Monday, moving laterally Tuesday, holding the move over the September peak. On the 60 minute chart RIG has formed something of a bull flag, and as soon as RIG starts to break higher again we are looking to move in. We are looking at something of a run to 100 play though RIG could hit a bit of resistance at 95, but even then our options will have built us a pretty nice gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/RIG.wmv
Volume: 2.798M Avg Volume: 4.361M
BUY POINT: $88.74 Volume=5M Target=$99.92 Stop=$85.89
POSITION: RIG AZ - Jan. $85c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rig.html
Play Date: 11/10/2009
XRTX (Xyratex Ltd.--$11.29; -0.30; optionable): PC data storage devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xrtx.html
EARNINGS: 09/30/2009
STATUS: Test breakout. XRTX surged to start November, moving up off the 50 day EMA (10.07). This week it has come back to test that move, holding the 18 day EMA (11.12) on the lows. Nice test of the break higher on very low trade. After this test we are looking to move in with more positions as XRTX makes the rebound move.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/XRTX.wmv
Volume: 124.085K Avg Volume: 360.215K
BUY POINT: $11.34 Volume=400K Target=$14.95 Stop=$10.55
POSITION: TQR CB - mar. $10c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xrtx.html
Downside:
Play Date: 11/10/2009
GS (Goldman Sachs--$176.51; -0.06; optionable): Financial services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gs.html
After Hours: $176.93
EARNINGS: 10/15/2009
STATUS: Bear flag. GS made us some money on its last dump lower in October. It held support at August at 170 and has bounced the past week, moving back up and just over the 50 day EMA (175.82). That takes it to the 38% Fibonacci retracement. Showed a candlestick doji Tuesday on the low volume session. Looking for GS to turn back down once more and head and shoulders toward the early November low at 165. There is some support at 170, but GS should make it back to the prior low if the selling has any intensity. Since it was the 38% level on the retracement there is a lot of momentum; we typically look for a move to the 127% extension (158) after a test of that level. Thus we will take some gain at the target and leave some for a deeper test. A move to the initial target lands a 36%ish gain; on to the 127% extension is 60%ish.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/GS.wmv
Volume: 7.248M Avg Volume: 9.854M
BUY POINT: $175.64 Volume=12M Target=$166.55 Stop=$178.32
POSITION: GPY MP - Jan. $180p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gs.html
Play Date: 11/10/2009
SCHN (Schnitzer Steel--$44.95; -0.81; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/schn.html
After Hours: $45.76
EARNINGS: 10/27/2009
STATUS: SCHN tanked to end October, falling through a support level at 45.50. it has rebounded the past week to that level, reaching up Monday and faded back. Tuesday SCHN was struggling but recovered some lost ground. Struggling at key resistance (formerly the support), and looking for a turn back down to give us a buy. A move to the initial target lands a 41%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/SCHN.wmv
Volume: 522.514K Avg Volume: 566.221K
BUY POINT: $44.82 Volume=625K Target=$40.75 Stop=$46.77
POSITION: SQQ MI - Jan. $45p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/schn.html
Play Date: 11/10/2009
SPY (S&P Depository Receipts--$109.59; +0.02; optionable)
After Hours: $110.05
STATUS: Given that SP500 is at a confluence of key resistance and rallied back up to that level on low volume after high volume selling, there is a high probability that SP500, and thus SPY, can roll back down in its trading range toward 1025 (102.50 on SPY). There is some support at 107.50 as it gapped over that level, the September peak, so we have to watch that on a turn back to the downside for a potential higher low, but the larger range is pretty well established and we would look for a ride back down to that level. A move to the target lands a 63%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/SPY.wmv
Volume: 171.9M Avg Volume: 192.104M
BUY POINT: $108.92 Volume=200M Target=$106.95 Stop=$110.44
POSITION: SPY MF - Jan. $110p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/spy.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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