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world stock market, us stock market
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11/12/09 Investment House Alerts
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IH Alert Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit alerts: GLD
Buy alerts: IWM; JNPR; KLAC; QID; SDS; SPY
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: BRCD; SWN
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VIDEO MARKET SUMMARY. Detailed chart-based analysis of the key index and leadership charts are covered.
TO VIEW THE VIDEO MARKET SUMMARY CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/MarketSummary.wmv
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SUMMARY:
- No gap lower, but indices test the resistance again and fade as dollar bounces and NASDAQ volume expands.
- Jobless claims buoy some, but at still over 500K this is hardly a comfort.
- President to push exports to Asian markets in weekend summit, but should we strive to be an export nation?
- SP500 is not showing a lot of wear, but NASDAQ, SP600, and SOX the growth areas are not looking healthy.
- Watching volume as the next sessions unfold.
No gap lower for the island reversal, but market does the next best thing, sort of.
The market did not give the gap down on Thursday after the gap higher on Wednesday. If it had, that would have been the island reversal and would have set the tone for a downside move near term. The good news out before the market kept things from a nasty gap lower (or what we would have considered a good gap lower). WMT beat the street with its earnings, and it missed slightly on revenue but upped its 2010 forecast. That was seen as a positive, but when WMT is doing better and other retailers are only hanging in there, that is not good. WMT is a recession trade, and they keep saying consumers will permanently switch over, but people do not shop at WMT as often when times are better. New from KSS was also decent. It beat the street on its bottom line and the top line. It was not as sanguine about its outlook, but that did not seem to hurt the market at all.
The jobless claims were down (502K, -12K with 510K expected). They are almost into the 400K- level, and the continue claims dipped as well. I obviously have issues with the jobs report because it is not as great as the numbers might indicate. 500K is not great no matter how you slice it. Whether you want to compare it to the first of the year or not, it stinks. It has been hanging around 500-525K for months upon months, so this is not necessarily as great as people thought it was. It certainly did not help that it was less than expected on Friday morning.
The dollar was stronger (1.4934 Euros premarket, versus 1.4980 on Wednesday). It was stronger, but stocks were not terribly weak; they were flat. Stocks opened flat and moved immediately higher to positive ground. That could be a sign that the dichotomy I noted from the prior week was reasserting itself. The market may have been cutting the cord in terms of its connection with whether the dollar is weaker or stronger. That did not last long, and it reversed after the market moved higher. That gave us one of the other scenarios: The rally up to resistance, but failure to take it out. It was not a done deal on Thursday but was a good indication, especially with some of the indices that look weak at this point.
The market opened higher. It was soft, it rallied, and it looked strong. It then got up to resistance, tested where it was on Wednesday on the peak, then it turned and reversed. On NASDAQ, it reversed on the strongest volume of the entire month. That was all on the upside prior to this, then volume expands when there is a downside day.
NYSE volume was up, but was not great. It was not as clear an indication that this was the scenario of a clear reversal without taking out the prior resistance. I still do not have a complete answer on that, but that did not stop us from taking some downside.
I really liked what I saw with NASDAQ. It started up, rallied up sharply, and then reversed. Volume was picking up early as it turned back over. We jumped into the QIDs - the 2:1 ultra short upside play on the QQQQ. We moved in on that early and that worked out well. When the market continued lower and held its reversal off the peaks - all the indices did - we moved into some other plays such as the SDS and SPY. I would also like to pick up some more of the IWM - that is a small cap downside play. It is not time to overload to the downside because it is not a done deal. It is a good indication that the resistance is there and it is causing problems, but it is not the clear-cut gap higher, then sharp through the resistance level and shoved back down. I would feel more comfortable with a serious plunge lower if the NYSE volume had been really high, but it was good enough for us to start building some positions and then see how the market plays out through Friday and on to Monday. The liquidity could win out, or that technical action could keep suggesting that the market is going back to the downside.
The dichotomy was not totally severed with the dollar. The dollar ended at 1.4839 Euros, stronger than it was early on in the session. Wednesday evening I spoke about the double bottom in the dollar and how it might try to rally, and that is what it did. That is one of the reasons that energy was down, although inventories were higher. Inventories rose (1.76M barrels versus 1M anticipated). That put pressure on energy, and it was not the only pressure as the dollar was much stronger. Oil took it on the chin on Thursday ($76.65 -2.53). It has been bumping up near $80, but could not hold it. It was knocked back down because the dollar is stronger.
Gold had an off session as well ($1,104.70 -10.40) after an almost thirteen-day run higher. I issued an alert early on when I saw the action unfolding and we took another third of our position off the table and some nice gain - 117% on our options for GLD. We will see how it tests back and whether there will be another opportunity to move in. There has been a long run higher. Some of the tides are turning a bit with respect to the dollar, so we banked some nice gain on the GLD play that had a huge upside run.
TECHNICAL
INTRADAY
There was a soft to flat start. There was a slight gap lower, but not the gap I was looking at for an island reversal. The market sold off immediately, but it held at the late-Wednesday low and bounced higher.
The SP500 started a long, steady pullback for the rest of the session, making lower lows and lower highs. There was a brief bounce at the end of the day because there is still nervousness about the liquidity coming back in and pushing stocks higher. There was the modest bounce, but it was a significant downside day overall with a 1% loss on the SP500. Although the SP500 broke well above resistance on Wednesday, it did not do so on Thursday.
NASDAQ had a very similar pattern with an early surge and then lower lows and lower highs all the way down. It had a sharp selloff late and a modest recovery. The interesting thing about NASDAQ is it came back up to the Wednesday peak, then broke through momentarily but failed. It was very bearish all session, and it failed at key levels matched up not only with Wednesday, but with the longer-term charts of support and resistance that I have talked about.
INTERNALS
The breadth on NASDAQ was -3.1:1. On NYSE, it was nearly -4:1. When there is that kind of breadth on the NYSE, whether negative or positive, I look at the small and mid-caps. The SP600 was the loss leader on the day, down 2.12%. It broke through key levels as it churned lower, so that is where the downside breadth came from. They lag the most on the initial selloff on October, thus when they bounced and breadth was strong on the bounce, it gave the illusion that it was not just short covering. When most of the stocks on the market sell off on high volume and rebound on relief, there will be large breadth again. The key is what was selling - it was not just the large cap stocks leading, but the small caps as well.
Volume was the key factor on the day outside of resistance. Volume jumped up to average on NASDAQ. With the exception of the first day of November, that was the strongest day of trade this month. There was high-volume selling to end October, low and ever-decreasing volume as it rebounded to match the old peaks, and then high volume on the day after a doji and some selling. It was not massive volume, but looking at the volume over the last two and a half months, it was a decent showing (particularly when you consider all the up volume was very low in November).
SP500 signifies the NYSE volume. Volume did rise, but it was only a fraction of a percent up to 1.05B. That is not a huge day. It is in the range it has been all month long; indeed, it has been lower on this last part higher. This was not a reversal day at all. There was higher volume on Monday, and then it tailed off as it peaked and rolled. There has not been a surge in volume to the downside, and that is why I say it is not a done deal. This was not a dyed-in-the-wool reversal - it is just a light-volume turn on the NYSE, whereas NASDAQ showed more downside selling. That is the way it has been during the last two and a half months, with NASDAQ being less the fair-haired child and deferring instead to the SP500 and the DJ30. All the growth areas (NASDAQ, SP600, SP400, and the SOX) have been lagging, which is not a healthy economic indicator.
CHARTS
There are three scenarios. The upside scenario is a break through resistance that comes back to test and holds and bounces higher. There is also the break through that then reverses on volume and is pushed back through almost immediately. It does not have to be the same day or the next day, but within a few days. Then there is the rollover. We tried to get some of that rollover action on Thursday, and it was showing some on NASDAQ with the higher volume. It is not a done deal, however, and it was not across the market as the leaders of late - SP500 - still performed nicely on low volume. The scenario of failure at resistance is trying to set up, but it is not there yet. It has not proved itself across the market, and there are some signs in the individual charts that make things more interesting. For one, NASDAQ did not even make the prior October peaks and rolled over on higher volume. That is a suggestion that there is some downside. On SP500, that was not the case. There was lower volume even though it once again reached up to resistance and rolled over intraday, it did not roll over on higher volume so it did not corroborate the story that NASDAQ was telling.
The SP600 had the lighter volume on the NYSE, but it has a serious problem with something of a double top. It made the lower low, it came back up through resistance, but then it rolled back over (and did so impressively). It came up, had a tombstone doji, turned down, and broke back through resistance and the 50 day EMA, making a lower high as well. It is not looking good at all and looks like it has more selling to do down to the early-November low, or even down to 290 where you see the August low and the early September low. It could even pop down to the June peak at 280. That would be more significant selling, and I am not sure that is going to happen with all the liquidity floating in the market. If you look back at the other indices, what we are looking for is more of a trade in the range down to the October low or the early-November low. That is not bad in the bigger picture. It sets up excellent buys to the upside when it does occur. The problem the market has right now is that leadership is extended. It can continue to run higher because of the liquidity out there, but the question is when it will do that. You do not want to buy into these stocks when they are so extended. If there is a pullback for 2-3 weeks, then that is a great setup for a run higher into the end of the year. That puts it just past Thanksgiving, heading toward the end of the year (typically a light-volume time of the year), and stocks tend to move higher during that period. Then there will be the January effect - I will call that the liquidity effect for this January. You see where I am going. If you get a trade back, then it is not the end of the world. I am not predicting that the rally is over. I am saying is that it is showing signs of turning back down, and we took positions that help us meet that scenario. There is a rising dollar, and there are indices bumping up resistance and showing problems.
The SOX is similar to the SP600. There is something of a double top, a selloff to a lower low that is relatively coincident with other peaks. Then it bounced on the low-volume recovery and is back up to the March-July trendline. It is trying to move higher each day, but is thrown back every time at the resistance point. There could easily be a lower high and then a trade back down into the 275-280 range - again, not a horrible scenario for the market. The growth stocks are not doing well, and that is not necessarily a great thing, but it is not the type of move that will trump the liquidity in the market and the world in general. If we get a pullback, that sets up good upside opportunities.
LEADERSHIP
Nothing wanted to take the mantle of leadership on Thursday. Everything was struggling, and some more than others. With the dollar strengthening and inventories higher, oil lost a lot of ground, and energy lost a lot of luster. HAL had something of a double top. It had that higher low and looked like it would bust through, but it has not. It is selling down and is picking up volume on the downside. The test down at the September peak, the mid-October low and the early November low will be very important. I do not want to ride HAL positions much lower than this. If we do not get the break out of the range we want, I do not want to take it down to the bottom of the range. Watch your stops on this one. There were others showing real wear and tear like SWN; it gapped lower and broke through the late-October low, making a lower low on high volume. That was not good action and we bailed on it as well. You can see there is trouble in the energy world. It is not going to take over the entire sector, but with the dollar rising, it has some issues near term.
RS has rebounded and turned over at a prominent resistance level. It did not do so on a lot of volume, so we will see if it picks up, but we can get a play down to the 200 day EMA near 35 with your existing position and get a nice return. BHP had a lower high, with 78% over trace and 78% on the top as well. As it came back down, volume picked up as it turned over. It could ride back down to the 65 level, and that would be a nice gain. The metals are having a bit of trouble like everything else right now. That makes sense with the rising dollar. FCX is still in decent shape. It could have a double top forming, but it never tested back that far. The Fibonacci retracement was not deep, and it continues a healthy uptrend.
The industrials were okay. CAT has a double-top look, but that means nothing right now because there are no lower lows, no significant corrections, and no volume. It is in excellent shape. BUCY is in the same situation - it had a strong breakout, a gap, a test and fill of that gap, and then a surge higher. It was down on Thursday, but it was on lower volume and there was no lower low or any threats at all. That does not mean it cannot turn over and tank, but the chart is showing no trouble at all. It could take something extraordinary to break it out of here, and there is nothing like that on the horizon for BUCY.
Retail is hanging in there. It did not want to do much on Thursday, but it did not sell off, either. BBY was one I wanted to come back and test before it broke, and it did. It broke out, and now it is coming to a test that could give us a trade off of this level. We might get that play after all. Retail held up quite nicely.
GLD is not in any trouble. We decided to bank another third of the gain because there was a long upside run. It tested, surpassed in a big way, and then it chipped away every day. Then it gapped higher on Wednesday and lower on Thursday. With the dollar rising and showing the double bottom, we sold another third of our position for the 117% gain. I now want to see if it will give a nice test and another setup to play it higher. I think gold could still go to $1,500. It will not do it overnight, but we could play a nice uptrend while it is in place and bank gain at logical points along the way.
I sent out an addendum last night to the technical summary about this double bottom on the DXY0. When the dollar got to 1.5 in the Euro in October it bounced, and when it got back to the 1.5 level this week, it bounced with authority. This is an important level because there is support as this level from late 2007 and 2008. It did not bounce that time, but it hung around that point. It felt it as it tried to break back through, it tested and held, and then it was on its way. It is now trying to find support, and it just might do it and deliver more of a bounce than most people are anticipating. You have to look at the August low at 7756 and at the late-September peak and early-October peaks to see where it could go. Looking at the intraday, it is 7750. If there is a close at 7568, we could see the dollar bounce back up to that level. It will have problems from 7750 up to 7800 and then onto 7900 - there is a lot of resistance, but that does not mean it cannot bounce up that way over the next week or two. The stock market will struggle during that period, and that means gold might struggle as well as energy and oil. If that is the case, our downside plays will work out quite nicely and we can find upside plays after the test is over and the dollar runs out of steam. Despite its bounce, it is more of an oversold move because there is nobody in the government or the world supporting the dollar right now. If that remains is same and the liquidity remains in the world as the G20 and the Fed say it will, then we should get a nice setup for further moves higher after a pullback.
THE ECONOMY
502K new jobless claims is nothing to be happy about, nor are the so-called 1M 'saved or created' jobs.
The jobless claims where are out on Thursday, and were much better an expected at 502K. They are closer to breaking the 400K level that everyone keeps looking for, but it stays just out of their grasp. I talk to traders every week, and they say if we get to 400K, then things will really pop. It is a very sad time for the United States when we have been trying to get jobless claims down to the 400K range for a year. 502K is terrible. With a 10.2% unemployment rate in the household survey, or a 190K jobs loss non-farm payroll number, which of those do you think is more accurate? We are bleeding jobs every week, so it is easy to see the household survey is more accurate. Other parts of the jobs report show that the average workweek is declining again. It was at 33.1 hours per week, but now it is down to 33 hours per week. There is serious trouble going on, and we are not having the necessary increase in the work hour that shows employers are working their employees more. There is a lot of talk about squeezing blood out of a turnip when you look at the productivity numbers, but when you look at the average workweek, it belies all of that. We are not working our people any more at all. There is not any pressure to work people more because they are still laying them off. I do not care if the business is large or small; they are still laying people off. They can say they have created 1M jobs, but those are very expensive jobs that a study in Massachusetts just showed are totally bogus. Someone in Massachusetts did the math, and with the number of jobs that they supposedly created and the money that was spent to create those jobs, those people are making $50 a week. Some are making $9-10 a week. Those are not real jobs are they? We have to get over the idea that we are creating or saving jobs just because we fund state projects that were already going to be done. We could just give the money to states and tell them to hire a certain number of firemen or a certain number of teachers. That would be unconstitutional because that is a state issue, but nonetheless, that would be a better use of our money given the vast amount of dollars being spent. The jobs are over $303K per job created, and that is a pretty disgusting batting average. I am digressing, but wanted to point out that these jobs numbers are not a great thing and we are not heading in the right direction even though they are supposedly at 502K for the past week.
President Obama spoke today before he went to Asia to talk about trade and the economy. He was announcing they were going to have a jobs summit to figure out how to create more jobs since the jobs they created are bogus (and if they are real, we are spending way too much money on them). Is it a free market process to spend $303K to save or create a single job that pays someone $45-50K per year? That is asinine. Market forces would not allow that, which is why it is a bastardization of the entire process when the government interferes. It is picking and choosing where the money goes when it has no idea where it should go. I am really on the soapbox now.
Obama said he would go to Asia and talk about opening Asian markets to US exports. He is talking about it, George Bush Jr. talked about it, Bill Clinton talked about it, and George Bush Sr. talked about it. Reagan did not talk about it because he was more into empowering entrepreneurs and consumers and businesses in the United States. He knew that the strength of the United States is in the small businesses, and that is where all the jobs are created. The last several recessions have shown who creates the jobs that pull us out of those recessions. When we came out of the 2001-2002 recession, it was not GE, JNJ, or any of the big multinational companies, but the small businesses that sprang up out of nowhere and made a ton of money and millions of jobs.
Abandoning the engine of our economy in favor of exporters.
For the past 25-30 years, other countries have geared their economies to provide goods and services for consumption in the United States because we were the economic engine of the world. There were the small businesses that produced the great technologies and medical discoveries. Accordingly, our standard of living was very high and we could consume a lot of goods, so countries gears their economies to be exporters. It is now apparent that our federal government is focusing not on homegrown small business technology. The great leaps in technology have come from small startup companies with venture capital money. They make the big discoveries that the big old companies who are milking their cash cows were too busy to get involved with. They have so much of an expected return, so they do not get involved with invention. The small guys come up with the ideas. New energy companies drill in those places that the big companies do not think were profitable enough and it turns out they turned conventional wisdom on its head and changed the economy. They changed the world.
Steve Jobs asked the CEO of PepsiCo, "Do you want to sell sugar water, or do you want to change the world?" That is how powerful the small businesses are in the United States of America. Small business also sells for consumption in the United States. When they grow into big companies they sell elsewhere, but we are like the farm leagues for major league baseball. They go to the show after they start off in the minor leagues to get their foundation and then become great. When companies are still small, they sell for consumption in the United States. Which companies are doing the best as the market has gone up because the dollar has gone down? Those that export overseas. Huge industrial companies and big metals companies are doing great while the small guys are being crushed. What we are saying to the small businesses - the engine of our standard of living - is that we will not focus on them, but will focus on getting economies overseas to buy our goods. We will fill the role that the other countries filled in servicing the United States. They are telling us that we are going to lower our standard of living to service China, India, Brazil, etc. We will be the gofers.
We gave away our technological advantage in the 2000s when Greenspan had the foolish idea that we would hobble the United States in order to let the other economies catch up with us. That put us in a recession, and there was no invention, no jobs created, no spending on technology or R&D in the United States for three years. We narrowed the gap all right - we narrowed it and then gave it away. We could have been the world leader coming up with the next hydrogen car, the next propulsion system that the rest of the world wanted. They would be at our doorstep as the baby boomers grayed and grew older. Instead, we gave it away and now we have lost it and are going down. The current administration sees that our only way out is to marry up with the GEs and other big companies that have not created a job in 25 years and give them the benefits of servicing other countries through subsidies, sweetheart deals, and getting promotions for their goods overseas. That will not benefit any small businesses, and I guarantee that our standard of living will decrease as a result. If we forsake the small businesses as we have done, we will have a lower standard of living. We will end up like the countries over the past 25 years who serviced us until we gave it away. We are going to be one of the errand boys making goods for them to use instead of us coming up with the new technologies that change the world and things that grant us a higher standard of living. Think about that when you contemplate what you will do in the next elections and what you will do with your taxes.
THE MARKET
MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX: 24.24; +1.2
VXN: 24.05; +0.99
VXO: 23.22; +1.31
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.85; -0.05
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 48.3%. Surprisingly holding steady for the second week after a drop from 49.5% two weeks back. Still a lot of believers in the rally, and that may be to investors' detriment near term as the market consolidates a bit more. Bulls have held in the 48% to 50% range for several weeks now though that will start changing some now, and that is for the better in terms of a renewed upside move. Still well over the 35% level that is the threshold for what is considered a bullish climate. It does not mean things are necessarily bearish; that takes a reading in the 60% range. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level. Dramatic rise from 21.3% in November 2008, the bottom on this leg. This last leg down showed us the largest single week drop we have ever seen, falling from 33.7% to 25.3%. Hit 40.7% on the high during the rally off the July 2008 lows. 30.9% was the March low. In March the indicator did its job with the dive below 35% and the crossover with the bears. A move into the lower 40's is a decline of significance. A move to 35% is a bullish indicator.
Bears: 24.7%. A rise as expected, but not a surge despite the rather sharp, high volume selling to end October. Bears remains relatively low, hardly in excess numbers but not so low to start looking for a reversal. Last week 22.5%, and hanging around in the 23% range before that. Hit a low of 21.3% on this leg. Rebounding some from the big drop 31.1% and 35.6%. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: -17.88 points (-0.83%) to close at 2149.02
Volume: 2.112B (+16.41%)
Up Volume: 852.819M (-503.256M)
Down Volume: 1.43B (+947.137M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 3.13 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.66 to 1
New Highs: 69 (-48)
New Lows: 47 (+13)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: -11.27 points (-1.03%) to close at 1087.24
NYSE Volume: 1.05B (+0.4%)
Up Volume: 147.336M (-533.301M)
Down Volume: 877.356M (+518.105M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 3.93 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.68 to 1
New Highs: 206 (-80)
New Lows: 37 (-1)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
DJ30
Stats: -93.79 points (-0.91%) to close at 10197.47
Volume DJ30: 183M shares Thursday versus 166M shares Wednesday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
FRIDAY
It is Friday and that is always a tougher time to buy. The market looks like it may be rolling over, but it is not a done deal. If we see a screaming downside or upside buy, we will take it. We put some downside positions in play on Thursday. We may get a bounce back up and could take a few other small positions - maybe add a few contracts to some of the downside plays on Friday if there is a rebound. I am still looking for a total turn down and the market has not shown that as the case yet. I do not want us to get too far out to the downside. We picked up some positions, and we are well-positioned if things start to fall. If they do fall, we will be in good shape, and if they do not, we will be okay. We will have good stop points because we took them near the old resistance. If they pop back through that resistance, we can close them out and see what happens. The three scenarios are back on the table. We are getting a bit of advanced movement on some of them, and that is why we took these downside positions. We are not looking to take a lot of positions on Friday. There may be a late rebound. There is a concern among traders that the liquidity will continue to come in and push things higher. It is a valid concern, and part of the yin and yang. You have the weaker technical position versus the liquidity that wants to get in the market. The liquidity is still there, it is just a matter of whether the market tests back further. We may end of getting burned somewhat on the downside, but we have good exit positions on them because we took them close to the resistance level. If they break resistance, we are gone.
With that said, we will take it easy on Friday, and then enjoy a nice weekend. We are getting closer to the holidays. We will see how volume works, and that will be the key. Volume may be light on Friday, but come next week, it will be important to see what the volume is going to be like. This is the last full week before the Thanksgiving holiday, and if volume picks up to the downside, that will be very telling because usually volume lightens up a bit at this time of the year.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2149.02
Resistance:
2155 is the March 2008 intraday low
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2177 is a low from March 2008
2191 is the October 2009 peak
2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
Support:
2143 is the October 2009 range low
2099 is the mid-September 2008 closing low
The 50 day EMA at 2092
2070 is the September 2008 intraday low
2060 is the August peak
2048 is the early October 2009 closing low
2016 is the early August peak
1984 from late September
1962 is the bottom of the August 2009 range.
1947 is the October gap down point
1897 is the October post gap intraday high.
1880 is the June peak
1862 is the July peak
The 200 day SM A at 1815
S&P 500: Closed at 1087.24
Resistance:
The March/July up trendline at 1090
1101 is the October high
1105 is the 2007 down trendline
1106 is the September 2008 low
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
1185 from late September 2008
1200 from the July 2008 low
Support:
1080 is the September 2009 peak
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak
The 50 day EMA at 1055
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high
The August peak at 1040
The early October 2009 closing low at 1025
The early August intraday peak at 1018
The November 2008 peak at 1006 closing 1007.53 intraday
992 is the August 2009 consolidation low
956 is the June intraday peak
944 is the January 2009 high
935 is the January closing high
932 is the July peak
930 is the May peak
The 200 day SMA at 929
919 is the early December peak is bending
Dow: Closed at 10,197.47
Resistance:
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,963 is the July 2008 low
Support:
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
The 18 day EMA at 10,010
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak
The 50 day EMA at 9794
9654 is the November 2008 high
9625 is the October 2008 closing high
9620 is the August 2009 peak
9430 is the early October low
9387 is the mid-October peak
9116 is the August low
9088 is the January 2009 peak
8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation
8934 is the December closing high
8878 is the June peak
8829 is the late November 2008 peak
The 200 day SMA at 8678
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
Initial Claims, 11/07 (08:30): 502K actual versus 510K expected, 514K prior (revised from 512K)
Continuing Claims, 10/31 (08:30): 5631K actual versus 5700K expected, 5770K prior (revised from 5749K)
Crude Inventories, 11/06 (11:00): 1.76M actual versus -3.94M prior
Treasury Budget, October (14:00): -$176.4B actual versus -$165.0B expected, -$155.5B prior (no revisions)
November 13 - Friday
Export Prices ex-ag., October (08:30): 0.0% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, October (08:30): 0.6% prior
Trade Balance, September (08:30): -$31.8B expected, -$30.7B prior
Michigan Sentiment-Preliminary, November (09:55): 71.0 expected, 70.6 prior
End part 1 of 3
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