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us stock market, stock watch
Begin Part 2 of 2
Economic Calendar
6-03-02
Auto Sales, May (8:00): 6.3M vs 6.3M prior.
Truck Sales, May (8:00): 7.5M vs 7.5M prior.
ISM Index, May (10:00): 55.0 vs 53.9 prior.
Construction Spending, April (10:00): -0.1% vs -0.9% prior.
6-05-02
ISM Services, May (10:00): 56.0 vs 55.3 prior.
6-06-02
Initial Claims, 06-01 (8:30): 410K vs 410K prior.
6-07-02
Nonfarm Payrolls, May (8:30): 70K vs 43K prior.
Unemployment Rate, May (8:30): 6.1% vs 6.0% prior.
Hourly Earnings, May (8:30): 0.3% vs 0.1% prior.
Average Workweek, May (8:30): 34.2 vs 34.1 prior.
Wholesale Inventories, April (10:00): 0.1% vs 0.0% prior.
Consumer Credit, April (15:00): $6.0 B vs $4.6B prior.
TEAM TRADES
SNIC: A small business software company with good accumulation and relative strength in its 5-month ascending wedge pattern. It had been riding up the 50 day MVA with a firm top at just over 8. Thursday gave a strong volume jump in volume, raising a flag as to a potential upcoming breakout. Friday the stock hit the buy point just under two hours into the session on some massive volume. The stock had been running all session and we were picking it off at the high, but we decided to make the buy anyway as volume was running 157% of average. The price was 8.15 by 8.20 and we entered a limit order at the ask. Almost immediately the ask jumped to 8.24 and bounced around from 8.23 to 8.25, but there were trades still coming through at 8.20 and we received a partial fill on the order (no all or none order as we did not anticipate any trouble getting filled). We left the rest of the order in for 10 minutes or so, but saw it continue higher so we killed the remainder. We did this just as a matter of housekeeping so we knew what we had outstanding.
The stock moved to 8.25, pulled back, rallied again. It looked good with the strong volume, but then over the course of the next two hours fell back to 7.80. Looked like another breakout turning sour. It found the bottom there, however, and rallied to close at 8.15, just below the buy point. Volume was again strong, rising even over Thursday. Not bad action, but as with all breakouts we will watch it closely though we will give is some room down to the 50 day MVA.
THE PLAYS:
Best Plays:
1) FTEK: Nice wedge.
2) HYDL: Close to the breakout.
3) JBHT: Looks ready to start anew.
4) PETC: Taking another shot.
5) BL: Looks like it is ready to try the move.
6) ECL: Needs the volume to complete the break.
7) OSI: Also needs some volume.
8) Watchlist: BRO, UVN
NEW PLAYS
FTEK (Fuel Tech--$6.37; +0.22; no options): Industrial Electrical Equipment
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/f/ftek.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. A small issue that made a great run in the last quarter of 2001, and since has battled 6.50 as it tests back, making higher lows to form an ascending wedge. This week FTEK made a move back to the 50 day MVA (6.01), and Friday it made a solid bounce on increased, above average volume of 71,300 (avg. 59,500). The high is 6.82, with 6.55 being the recent highs. We will use that level for a breakout. Shows great money flow, buying and relative strength.
Volume: 71.3K Avg. Volume: 59.545K
BUY POINT: $6.65 Volume=90K Target=$8 Stop=$5.95
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ftek.html
HYDL (Hydril--$26.45; +0.34; no options): Oil & gas equipment
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/h/hydl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. HYDL ran to an all-time high of 33 back in June 2001 and then corrected into its current base. It rallied back to 26 then took an abrupt drop in April to the 200 day MVA near 20. It has since recovered to 26 and has spent the past month moving laterally forming a handle to this long base. The last two weeks it has started to show some volume spikes on up sessions, and overall in the base accumulation weeks lead distribution weeks 13 to 10. All it takes is a simple majority. Relative strength is ready to breakout on the move.
Volume: 100.8K Avg Volume: 61.09K
BUY POINT: $27.3 Volume=100K Target=$32.75 Stop=$24.40
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hydl.html
JBHT (JB Hunt Transportation--$27.33; +1.27; optionable): Trucking
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/j/jbht.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. JBHT broke out of a cup with handle in January, ran to 28, and then formed the current ascending wedge pattern. It was not able to carry through on the breakout, and ascending wedges after such breakouts give it further time to consolidate to give a stronger breakout. The fact that it can form such a pattern instead of breaking down is a big plus. The accumulation weeks outnumber distribution weeks 7 to 2 in the base; excellent accumulation. Relative strength is ready to breakout.
Volume: 4.353M Avg Volume: 363.545K
BUY POINT: $28.72 Volume=545K Target=$36 Stop=$25.40
POSITION: JHQ KX - Nov. $22.50 calls, delta 63 and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jbht.html
LRW (Labor Ready--$8.88; +0.5; no options): Staffing & outsourcing
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/l/lrw.html
STATUS: Trading range/test of 50 day MVA. LRW is still working its way out of a long base, but it made an important break over resistance at 6 in March. It climbed the 18 day MVA after the breakout, making 4 runs and topping out at 9. It has now gone back to test the 50 day MVA (8.07) and jumped off that level the last two sessions last week on much stronger volume. Relative strength is breaking out, and money flow is moving higher already. Temporary staffing benefits first in the hiring arena during economic recoveries.
Volume: 194.3K Avg Volume: 238.409K
BUY POINT: $9.25 Volume=360K Target=$12 Stop=$7.90
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lrw.html
NX (Quanex--$36.1; +1.25; no options): Mining: steel and iron
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/n/nx.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA bounce. NX broke out of a long, long base in March on that tariff nonsense and ran to a new high. Since that breakout it has run up the 18 day MVA, making the usual four bounces up off of that level, topping off at 38 on the move. It bounced lower on renewed fears the economic recovery was even weaker than feared. It has tested the 50 day MVA after the strong run, and has been showing volume spikes on the up sessions. Accumulation has been very good and money flow has zoomed ahead of the price move. Stronger economic recovery means more iron and steel use and the U.S. market is now protected to a certain extent.
Volume: 423.8K Avg Volume: 100.136K
BUY POINT: $36.5 Volume=150K Target=$43.8 Stop=$33.94
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nx.html
PETC (Petco--$25.56; +0.25; no options): Dogs, cats, birds and snakes
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/p/petc.html
STATUS: Test breakout. We got into PETC early in May but got shaken out when the stock ran below its 50 day MVA. Just in time for the big volume breakout 5 sessions ago on strong volume. Since then it has pulled back to test the breakout, moving on very low volume and holding above the 10 day MVA (24.87). That is just below the breakout point at 25. Friday PETC showed a hammer doji. It may snug up more to the 10 day MVA, but cats and dogs are big and consumers are not shy about spending money in this economy.
Volume: 127.9K Avg Volume: 275.59K
BUY POINT: $25.85 Volume=300K Target=$31 Stop=$24.04
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/petc.html
Downside: The mild bounce did not set up many put plays that meet our criteria. In particular we like to have a larger range to fall so we can take the sweet spot of the downside action and not have to be perfect on the entry and exit to make our gains. The two weeks of steady selling followed by less than a full session of rallying did not leave us with many choices that fit our liking. So we are going to be patient and see if we can get some to set up better this week.
CONTINUING PLAYS:
BL (Blair Corp.-- $22.93; +0.31; no options): Play Date: 05/21/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/b/bl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still in a very tight handle to a 5-month base, riding up the 18 day MVA. Friday was a decent move off that level on rising, though still below average volume. Excellent accumulation in the base with money flow leading the way up and relative strength ready to breakout as well.
Volume: 12K Avg Volume: 13.818K
BUY POINT $23.85 Volume=45K Target=$27.5 Stop=$22
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bl.html
BLC (Belo-- $23.96; -0.05; optionable): Play Date: 05/25/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/b/blc.html
STATUS: Flat base. Still in a very tight lateral move right at the breakout point, holding nearly steady for the past 4 sessions. Friday it showed a slight move lower on rising, average volume. It may want to, and probably should, test the 10 day MVA (23.67) or the 18 day MVA (23.48) before it tries the breakout. We will look for that move first to shakeout some sellers and then the breakout.
Volume: 253K Avg Volume: 284.045K
BUY POINT: $24.25 Volume=342K Target=$30 Stop=$22.55
POSITION: Stock and/or BLC JD - Oct. 20c (delta 91)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/blc.html
ECL (Ecolab-- $47.68; +1.35; optionable): Play Date: 05/23/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/e/ecl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. ECL continues to play with the breakout of its 12-week base. It showed a lower low in the handle on Thursday and then jumped up Friday. Volume was not there to push it out of the pattern Friday, however. Good accumulation in the base, and money flow is already breaking out on the move. We look for the breakout this week.
Volume: 386K Avg Volume: 353.545K
BUY POINT $47.80 Volume=500K Target=$57.36 Stop=$44.45
POSITION: Stock and/or ECL JI - Oct. $45c (delta 69)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ecl.html
ERTS (Electronic Arts-- $64.00; -0.30; optionable): Play Date: 05/30/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/e/erts.html
STATUS: Cup. Thursday ERTS made a strong move on average volume, then stalled Friday on below average volume. It showed a doji on the session; after forming the 6-month cup it may be ready to form a handle right here below the pre-correction high at 66. It may drift lower to 63 or 62 over this week to form that handle ahead of the breakout. That would be the preferred action. Not that we are adjusting the buy point.
Volume: 2.589M Avg Volume: 2.849M
BUY POINT: 65.10. New high: $66.12 Volume=4M Target=$79.50 Stop=$61.49
POSITION: EZQ IL - Sept. $60 call, delta 70 and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/erts.html
OSI (Outback Steakhouse-- $39.63; +1.05; optionable): Play Date: 05/29/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/o/osi.html
STATUS: Test breakout. The higher volume Thursday was a portent to the move Friday after the successful test of the breakout. Volume was not great, but it was solid coming in just above average. It was enough to take some positions. Relative strength has broken out on the move. New positions can be picked up on a move over 39.75 on stronger volume.
Volume: 517.1K Avg Volume: 500.136K
BUY POINT: New positions over 39.75 (original buy point at $39.05). Volume=720K Target=$46.94 Stop=$36.32
POSITION: OSI KG - Nov. $35 call, delta 77 and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/osi.html
XRAY (Dentsply-- $40.06; -0.20; optionable): Play Date: 05/25/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. XRAY was working on the breakout again Thursday on strong, above average volume, but after gapping slightly higher Friday, could not hold the move and backed off fractionally to close. Relative strength is very strong and money flow is leading the way ahead of price. It has already hit our buy point, but we are looking for new positions on a move over 40.50 on continued strong volume.
Volume: 297.1K Avg Volume: 313.681K
BUY POINT: New positions over 40.50 (original buy $40.35). Volume=465K Target=$48.25 Stop=$37.53
POSITION: Stock and/or XEQ JG - Oct. 35c (delta 83)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/xray.html
Downside
See updates below.
Continuing plays:
We have put all plays in a summary table that contains the date the stock was put on the report (so you can go back and check out the details of the play) and the other pertinent information. This provides more information than the watchlist summaries and still contains comments when appropriate. VIEW THIS IN COURIER NEW, 12 FOR BEST RESULTS. You can also easily print the table from the website (www.investmenthouse.com) from the 'current reports' section. If you just want to print the table you can cut and paste it to a word document setting the font to Courier New size 12. Just left click on the beginning of the table and drag to the table end. After selecting, right click and select 'copy.' Paste into your word processor. Select it all and choose Courier New, font size 12.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol AvgV Stop
ABF 05/11 BO 22.57 -0.42 22.23 25.75 586K 669K 20.25
Still moving laterally in the breakout. Good price/volume action.
ATH 05/16 Test 50 70.9 +0.15 68.5 75 1.4M 1.2M 63
BGG 05/11 Put 41.02 +0.27 39.4 35 100K 139K 42.20
Holding above the 200 day MVA. Just won't fall below 40.
BL 05/21 cup hdl 22.93 +0.31 23.85 27.5 12K 14K 22
BLC 05/25 Flat 23.96 -0.05 24.25 30 253K 284K 22.55
BRO 04/22 cup hdl 35.65 +0.5 35.63 42.75 263K 333K 33.50
Nice move on rising, average volume. May finally make the break.
BYBI 05/23 BO 11.06 +0.28 9.7 12.75 62K 45K 9.02
Having trouble with 11.50, may test toward 10.
CCMP 05/20 Put 48.78 +0.43 51 45 796K 1.4M 53.80
Looks ready to head lower again after low volume test of 18 day.
CDI 05/11 Pennant 27.98 -0.02 30 34.75 55K 57K 27.90
Has never hit the buy. Getting tighter, so we will see.
CERN 05/20 A Wedge 54.4 +0.16 56.1 60 312K 464K 53
CTX 05/11 Put 53.75 +1.07 53.5 49 717K 1.2M 56
Struggling below the 50 day, but not tanking down.
DVN 05/25 A Wedge 52.25 +1.6 50.95 61 1.3M 1M 47.38
Hit the buy on strong volume. Looks solid.
ECL 05/23 cup hdl 47.68 +1.35 47.8 57.36 386K 354K 44.45
ERTS 05/30 Cup 64 -0.3 66.12 79.5 2.6M 2.8M 61.49
FNFG 05/22 Pennant 25.36 -0.14 25.95 31 32K 42K 24.13
Waiting patiently. May test 24.75 to shake out before the breakout.
FRX 05/16 Put 73.83 -0.33 75.9 71 760K 1.3M 77.50
Falling again, but needs to get through 74.
FSS 05/22 DB hdl 25.3 -0.24 25.8 31 216K 195K 23.99
Still testing the move.
FTEK 06/01 A Wedge 6.37 +0.22 6.65 8 71K 60K 5.95
GMP 04/25 cup hdl 18.7 +0.35 18.85 22.62 10K 7.5K 18.25
GMRK 04/20 Test 50 42.34 +0.24 44.63 55 53K 67K 41.75
GNTA 05/04 Put 9.25 -0.52 11.75 9 723K 1.4M 11
Tanked Friday on continued low volume. Close to target.
HAR 05/13 Test 18 55.3 -1.05 58.55 64 174K 212K 54.45
Now testing the 50 day MVA on low volume.
HGR 05/20 Test 50 14.9 +0.67 12.6 19 200K 106K 11.72
Nice move Friday, finally making a more definitive move.
HI 05/20 Put 51.15 -0.5 53.45 48.5 4.4M 3M 56
There we go; falling again on higher volume.
HLT 05/06 Put 14.2 +0.32 14.3 12 1.8M 2.3M 15.80
Still playing with 14 but below average volume.
HSIC 05/15 BO 49.58 -0.37 49.4 56.9 275K 333K 46.50
Running out of steam at 50 on below average volume.
HYDL 06/01 cup hdl 26.45 +0.34 27.3 32.75 101K 61K 24.40
HZO 05/04 A Wedge 12.05 -0.37 14.5 17.4 21K 80K 13.75
Dropping. Broke down without hitting the buy.
IMDC 05/20 Put 32.45 -0.62 30.80 26 94K 206K 32
May be ready in head & shoulders. Raising buy point.
IMN 05/25 A Wedge 28.95 -0.68 31.58 38 258K 128K 28.25
Fell to 50 day MVA on rising volume. Pattern has changed.
IRM 05/01 A Wedge 31 +0.15 32.6 39.25 149K 197K 30.75
Not good; doji below the 50 day MVA.
ITN 05/13 DB hdl 13.35 +0.25 13 16.5 69K 111K 11.75
Moving higher again but needs more volume.
IWM 05/21 Put 96.5 -0.72 97.85 94 3.3M 0 101
Falling once more on massive volume.
JBHT 06/01 A Wedge 27.33 +1.27 28.72 36 4.4M 364K 25.40
KROL 06/06 BO 23.4 +0.47 20.2 24 684K 292K 19.50
Closed well off the high. May be running out of some steam.
LNCR 05/16 cup hdl 29.68 -0.17 32.7 39 928K 990K 30.41
Too steep a pullback for us, but still in the handle.
LRW 06/01 BO 8.88 +0.5 9.25 12 194K 238K 7.90
MERQ 05/28 A Wedge 33.86 -0.79 35.35 39 3.6M 4.5M 32.88
Ran into the 50 day MVA on the high; lower volume helps.
MMC 05/25 Put 100.9 +1.15 101.95 97.75 842K 914K 105
Bounced Friday on lower but still strong volume. Still holding.
NFB 04/13 BO 39.31 -0.04 36.55 43.5 801K 657K 37
Higher volume late in the week.
NX 06/01 Test 50 36.1 +1.25 36.5 43.8 424K 100K 33.94
OMX 05/28 Test 18 7.08 +0.33 7.65 11 2M 1.4M 6.60
Tested the 50 day MVA Thursday; bounced Friday on solid volume.
OSI 05/29 Test BO 39.63 +1.05 39.05 46.94 517K 500K 36.32
Nice bounce on Friday but needs more volume.
OSIP 05/25 Put 30.39 -0.76 31 27.25 1.1M 618K 34.25
Falling again on rising volume.
PBG 05/30 Test 18 33.02 +0.83 32.75 36 1.3M 1.2M 30.46
Nice bounce from the 18 day MVA Friday but nees more volume.
PCLE 05/06 cup hdl 10.96 +0.06 10.27 13 552K 543K 9.40
Having trouble w/11. May test back toward 10.50.
PETC 06/01 Test BO 25.56 +0.25 25.85 31 128K 276K 24.04
RAH 05/08 Test 18 28.14 -0.18 29.1 35 115K 96K 27.50
Testing back now to the 50 day MVA as volume rose Friday.
SGR 05/11 A Wedge 33.45 +0.72 34.32 40.75 479K 616K 31
Bounced up Friday ahead of the 50 day MVA (31.15).
SLVN 03/27 cup hdl 27.5 +0.04 27.05 32 204K 306K 26.55
Still holding tight at the 50 day MVA.
SOTR 05/02 cup hdl 25.97 +0.24 27.42 32.96 1.3M 1M 25.50
Just testing lower in the handle. Waiting for the move.
TEVA 05/15 BO 67.03 -0.07 62.1 67 661K 1M 60.50
Another doji on low volume trying to consolidate the move.
UVN 05/04 Put 40 +0.35 39.95 35.5 1.5M 1.1M 42
Rising volume on a doji at the 18 day. May be ready finally.
VMC 05/11 Put 47.83 +0.93 45.9 41.5 195K 174K 47.50
Never hit the buy and is now rising. Dropping.
WFC 03/28 A Wedge 52.4 +0.04 50.85 60.52 5.1M 3.9M 50
Rising volume Friday; may be ready to resume the move.
WL 04/25 Put 62.42 -0.15 65.6 62.55 64K 77K 67
Hit target.
WYE 05/23 Put 55.5 -0.63 57.5 54 3.8M 3.9M 59.50
Gapped higher but reversed again. Getting there.
XRAY 05/25 A Wedge 40.06 -0.2 40.35 48.25 374K 326K 37.53
XTO 03/27 A Wedge 20.26 +0.25 20.98 25.98 543K 520K 19.75
On the 50 day MVA on rising volume. Looks to hold.
ZMH 05/25 cup hdl 34.98 -0.19 36.95 45 435K 676K 34.36
Tested the 50 day MVA Friday & rebounded. Still in handle.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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