|
|
us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
********** *************
NEW FEATURE: Each play contains an additional link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. We hope you enjoy this new addition.
********** *************
Upside:
Play Date: 11/14/2009
CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill--$88.86; +1.31; optionable): Casual restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmg.html
After Hours: $88.86
EARNINGS: 10/22/2009
STATUS: Rolling. CMG has bounced off the lows in its 4 month range, but it is testing the initial move just below the mid-October lateral consolidation. Good initial surge, good test of near support at the 50 day EMA (87.55). Bounced Friday and looking to move in as CMG continues higher. A move to the target lands a 100%ish gain on the option play.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CMG.wmv
Volume: 514.023K Avg Volume: 568.45K
BUY POINT: $89.22 Volume=800K Target=$99.88 Stop=$86.31
POSITION: CMG AQ - Jan. $85c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cmg.html
Play Date: 11/14/2009
HOC (Holly Corp.--$28.50; +0.19; optionable): Oil and gas marketing and refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hoc.html
After Hours: $28.50
EARNINGS: 11/05/2009
STATUS: Breakout test. HOC broke higher in October from an 8 month base on base pattern . Great surge into October, then it was caught in the late October selling. It checked up and is now working laterally at some support at 28 as the 50 day EMA (27.20) rises up to meet it. Good upside volume to end the week and if HOC can continue the move higher this coming week we will move in. a move to the target lands a 60%ish gain on our option play.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/HOC.wmv
Volume: 910.446K Avg Volume: 877.055K
BUY POINT: $28.78 Volume=1.2M Target=$33.45 Stop=$26.98
POSITION: HOC CE - Mar. $25c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hoc.html
Play Date: 11/14/2009
MA (MasterCard--$234.72; -2.17; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ma.html
After Hours: $234.72
EARNINGS: 11/03/2009
STATUS: Test breakout. MA is in a solid uptrend, and from late September through early November it set up another buying opportunity as it formed an uptrending triangle. MA broke higher from that triangle just over a week back, rallied, and is now testing, coming back to the upper channel line on the Friday close. It is sitting on that support as well as the rising 10 day EMA, and we are looking for a move higher off of this level to give us the buy on the play. Our target is up at the 161% Fibonacci extension, and with MA's projected moves that is very doable. A move to that target lands a 73%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/MA.wmv
Volume: 1.494M Avg Volume: 1.995M
BUY POINT: $235.32 Volume=2.4M Target=$253.45 Stop=$229.38
POSITION: MAL AF - Jan. $230c (58 delta) or MAL DU - Apr. $240C (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ma.html
Play Date: 11/14/2009
TEVA (Teva Pharmaceutical--$52.28; +0.07; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/teva.html
After Hours: $52.24
EARNINGS: 11/03/2009
STATUS: Cup with handle. A really sweet 4 month base has formed, consolidating the last run higher after another base breakout in June. The move took TEVA to a new all-time high, and this base is setting up yet another breakout and run higher. The action the past couple of weeks is a flag, forming the handle to the cup. Good action Friday on the candlestick chart, and we are looking to start moving into the play as TEVA continues higher.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/TEVA.wmv
Volume: 2.678M Avg Volume: 4.486M
BUY POINT: $52.55 Volume=5.2M Target=$60.34 Stop=$51.44
POSITION: TVQ CX - Mar. $52.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/teva.html
Play Date: 11/14/2009
TXT (Textron--$19.81; -0.15; optionable): Just about everything industrial
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/txt.html
After Hours: $19.80
EARNINGS: 01/28/2010
STATUS: Triangle. This is TXT's second base off the March low. The first one broke out in late July and rallied from 12 to 21 through mid-September. TXT has put in another good base and early last week broke higher, clearing the pattern. Spent the last half of the week testing, coming back to the 10 day EMA (19.66) on lower trade. Nice action and setup, and ready to move in as TXT starts upside again, moving in during the last hour when we know the move is holding.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/TXT.wmv
Volume: 3.94M Avg Volume: 6.33M
BUY POINT: $20.21 Volume=7M Target=$27.25 Stop=$19.18
POSITION: TXY CD - Mar. $20c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/txt.html
Play Date: 11/14/2009
UUP (Dollar Index Bullish ETF--$22.32; -0.48; optionable)
After Hours: $22.33
STATUS: If the dollar is heading higher, this index tracking fund should do so as well. The dollar index is attempting a double bottom and we feel it is acting as if it wants a more substantial bounce. UUP has definitely shown a lot of recent volatility after a long, steady downtrend. That can be a sign of a trend change. Our target is not that high, but we are using options and a run to our target lands a 64%ish gain. If it goes higher that is fine, but there are significant resistance levels as discussed in the video.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/UUP.wmv
Volume: 8.881M Avg Volume: 3.031M
BUY POINT: $22.48 Volume=4.5M Target=$23.50 Stop=$22.22
POSITION: UUP CS - Mar. $22c (58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/uup.html
Downside:
Play Date: 11/14/2009
DUG (Oil & Gas Ultrashort ETF--$12.72; -0.15; optionable): oil ETF
After Hours: $12.72
STATUS: If the dollar is going to bounce oil is going to fall. Indeed DUG looks to be making a higher low over the past week, often the precursor to a break higher; kind of necessary but not sufficient in itself. DUG is still in a downtrend and thus it has a lot to prove. Again, however, if the dollar rallies DUG will rally as it is an upside short. There is some resistance below our target, but if this move has the kind of bounce we are looking to play then that will not slow it appreciably. A move to the target lands a 65%ish gain on the option play.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/DUG.wmv
Volume: 5.282M Avg Volume: 7.299M
BUY POINT: $13.09 Volume=9M Target=$15.55 Stop=$12.01
POSITION: DZG DL - Apr. $12c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dug.html
Play Date: 11/14/2009
MXWL (Maxwell Technologies--$17.01; +0.41; optionable): Electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mxwl.html
After Hours: $17.01
EARNINGS: 11/03/2009
STATUS: Gap. MXWL was stepping higher nicely, testing back in late October after a good run. Then earnings disappointed and it gapped lower. It gapped through key support at 17.50 to 18; on gaps you want to play as a continuation of the current trend you want to see them gap through a key level. MXWL rebounded following the gap but it did not move into the gap range until Friday, rallying intraday to prior resistance and over the 50 day EMA before reversing and giving up most of the gain. That long candle wick shows the sellers pushing it back down. Thus we are looking for a downside play as MXWL turns back down and holds a downside move into the close. That is our cue to buy. A move to the target lands an 80%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/MXWL.wmv
Volume: 237.789K Avg Volume: 266.374K
BUY POINT: $16.57 Volume=300K Target=$14.11 Stop=$17.74
POSITION: QMW XW - Dec. $17.50p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mxwl.html
CONTINUING PLAYS READY TO MOVE:
Play Date: 11/12/2009
BBY (Best Buy--$41.88; +0.04; optionable): Electronics retail stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bby.html
After Hours: $41.87
EARNINGS: 12/15/2009
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Making that bit deeper test we were looking for, tapping at the September high and rebounding nicely. Showing plenty of support at that level,a nd if BBY continues up from here and can hold the move to the close we are in. To recap: BBY is flexing a bit before the Christm er, winter holiday season. It broke out from a 13 week triangle Monday, not making a further pullback as we would have liked. Okay, so we waited and now it is giving us the test back toward the breakout point at 41.28. May come back a bit more toward that level before turning back up; there was some increasing downside volume Thursday. If it does we play it off that level. If it breaks higher from here we can go ahead and move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/BBY.wmv
Volume: 4.218M Avg Volume: 5.996M
BUY POINT: $41.91 Volume=7M Target=$47.95 Stop=$40.11
POSITION: BYY AH - Jan. $40c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bby.html
Play Date: 11/11/2009
PRE (Partnerre Ltd.--$77.69; +0.48; optionable): Property and casualty insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pre.html
After Hours: $77.69
EARNINGS: 10/26/2009
STATUS: ABCD. Nice action Friday, bouncing higher but unable to hold a good chunk of the move. Didn't harm the pattern at all and indeed shows there are buyers ready to send PRE higher. If it continues the move that is a buy cue. To recap: After a 3.5 month trading range from April to July, PRE broke higher and has stepped upside since. Peaked in October just over 80 and is testing since, coming back to the 50 day EMA (76.37). As it has stepped to the downside it has formed an ABCD pattern with the D point, the lowest point, hit last week. PRE started back up this week, bouncing off the 50 day on some solid volume Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday it tested, again tapping the 50 day on the Wednesday low and rebounding, showing strong volume. Nice test of the initial move off the bottom of the pattern, and as PRE continues the move it is a buy. A move to the target lands an 85%ish gain on the option play.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/PRE.wmv
Volume: 777.213K Avg Volume: 639.679K
BUY POINT: $77.66 Volume=1M Target=$84.77 Stop=$75.38
POSITION: PRE BO - Feb. $75c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pre.html
Play Date: 11/10/2009
XRTX (Xyratex Ltd.--$11.40; +0.04; optionable): PC data storage devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xrtx.html
EARNINGS: 09/30/2009
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice action with a very flat session Friday at the 10 day EMA. That concluded a nice lateral consolidation on the week and leaves XRTX in excellent position to break higher. All we need to see is a solid bounce to get us in. To recap: XRTX surged to start November, moving up off the 50 day EMA (10.07). This week it has come back to test that move, holding the 18 day EMA (11.12) on the lows. Nice test of the break higher on very low trade. After this test we are looking to move in with more positions as XRTX makes the rebound move.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/XRTX.wmv
Volume: 251.472K Avg Volume: 361.458K
BUY POINT: On a continued move higher from here (orig. $11.34) Volume=400K Target=$14.95 Stop=$10.55
POSITION: TQR CB - mar. $10c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xrtx.html
Downside:
Play Date: 11/12/2009
JDAS (JDA Software Group--$23.91; -0.02; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jdas.html
After Hours: $23.76
EARNINGS: 07/20/2009
STATUS: Rolling. Reached lower Friday but then rebounded in that late market recovery in the last hour. That keeps JDAS right at the top of its rolling range and we are still watching for a move lower that holds late in the session. That is when we move in. to recap: JDAS has a very well defined rolling range the past 8 weeks, travelling from 20 to 24 and then back again. This occurred after the July gap higher that put JDAS in a higher orbit so to speak. If JDAS breaks lower again, a move that would be aided by an overall market pullback, it presents a good downside range to give us a trade. Thus on a break lower that holds we will look to move into the play. A run to the target lands a 75%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/JDAS.wmv
Volume: 483.426K Avg Volume: 381.062K
BUY POINT: $23.68 Volume=450K Target=$20.11 Stop=$24.32
POSITION: QAH ME - Jan. $25p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jdas.html
Play Date: 11/12/2009
RIMM (Research in Motion--$62.69; -0.30; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
After Hours: $62.78
EARNINGS: 12/17/2009
STATUS: Reached lower Friday through the 10 day EMA (62.03) but then rebounded late to hold the 18 day on the close. Still a weak pattern and still looking for RIMM to move lower again. If it continues lower Monday we will start some positions. To recap: RIMM gapped nastily lower in late September on a disappointing outlook. Tried to hold up but then sold off with the rest of the market to end October. It moved into the April gap range but then recovered. RIMM rallied up to the 200 day SMA (65.93) this week, a level coincident with the July low. Plenty of resistance at that level. Thursday RIMM turned back down though volume was quite low. If it can continue downside and the market weakens further RIMM could try and fill that April gap down to 50. Our initial target is not that ambitious, but we would keep part of the position on the table to see if it would. A move to the initial target lands a 55%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/RIMM.wmv
Volume: 11.459M Avg Volume: 17.721M
BUY POINT: $62.66 Volume=22M Target=$55.45 Stop=$66.04
POSITION: RFY MM - Jan. $65p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rimm.html
Play Date: 11/12/2009
BBY (Best Buy--$41.84; -0.41; optionable): Electronics retail stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bby.html
After Hours: $41.84
EARNINGS: 12/15/2009
STATUS: Ascending triangle. BBY is flexing a bit before the Christm er, winter holiday season. It broke out from a 13 week triangle Monday, not making a further pullback as we would have liked. Okay, so we waited and now it is giving us the test back toward the breakout point at 41.28. May come back a bit more toward that level before turning back up; there was some increasing downside volume Thursday. If it does we play it off that level. If it breaks higher from here we can go ahead and move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/BBY.wmv
Volume: 5.616M Avg Volume: 6.04M
BUY POINT: $41.91 Volume=7M Target=$47.95 Stop=$40.11
POSITION: BYY AH - Jan. $40c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bby.html
Play Date: 11/12/2009
CPST (Capstone Turbine--$1.13; -0.03; no options): Industrial electrical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cpst.html
After Hours: $1.14
EARNINGS: 11/09/2009
STATUS: ABCD. CPST bottomed in March along with the rest of the market and has rallied similarly. CPST peaked in early September, however, and has stair-stepped lower into this week. That action has set up an 11 week ABCD pattern. CPST is in the process of trying to finish the D point, bouncing to start November but then coming back this week to test that level once more. Looking for a solid break higher off this level to show us the D point is in place and that we can move into positions.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CPST.wmv
Volume: 1.469M Avg Volume: 3.76M
BUY POINT: $1.21 Volume=4.5M Target=$1.55 Stop=$1.05
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cpst.html
Play Date: 11/12/2009
DD (DuPont--$33.87; -0.24; optionable): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dd.html
After Hours: $33.87
EARNINGS: 01/26/2010
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Nicely formed 10 week base with the classic rising lows below a constant top. That builds pressure from below as the buyers step in earlier and earlier on each dip, not letting it fall as far back. Thus when these patterns go, they usually go strong. DD is bumping up against resistance and may try to come back a bit toward 33. That is find, but after BBY blasted higher on us without a test we want to be ready.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/DD.wmv
Volume: 7.883M Avg Volume: 6.845M
BUY POINT: $34.68 Volume=8.5M Target=$39.91 Stop=$32.31
POSITION: DXT AD - Jan. $32c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dd.html
Downside:
Play Date: 11/12/2009
JDAS (JDA Software Group--$23.93; +0.05; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jdas.html
After Hours: $23.93
EARNINGS: 07/20/2009
STATUS: Rolling. JDAS has a very well defined rolling range the past 8 weeks, travelling from 20 to 24 and then back again. This occurred after the July gap higher that put JDAS in a higher orbit so to speak. If JDAS breaks lower again, a move that would be aided by an overall market pullback, it presents a good downside range to give us a trade. Thus on a break lower that holds we will look to move into the play. A run to the target lands a 75%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/JDAS.wmv
Volume: 611.757K Avg Volume: 379.205K
BUY POINT: $23.68 Volume=450K Target=$20.11 Stop=$24.32
POSITION: QAH ME - Jan. $25p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jdas.html
Play Date: 11/12/2009
RIMM (Research in Motion--$62.98; -1.73; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
After Hours: $63.01
EARNINGS: 12/17/2009
STATUS: RIMM gapped nastily lower in late September on a disappointing outlook. Tried to hold up but then sold off with the rest of the market to end October. It moved into the April gap range but then recovered. RIMM rallied up to the 200 day SMA (65.93) this week, a level coincident with the July low. Plenty of resistance at that level. Thursday RIMM turned back down though volume was quite low. If it can continue downside and the market weakens further RIMM could try and fill that April gap down to 50. Our initial target is not that ambitious, but we would keep part of the position on the table to see if it would. A move to the initial target lands a 55%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/RIMM.wmv
Volume: 14.617M Avg Volume: 17.732M
BUY POINT: $62.66 Volume=22M Target=$55.45 Stop=$66.04
POSITION: RFY MM - Jan. $65p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rimm.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trend trading stock
|
