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Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Best Plays:
1) LZB: Falling on strong volume.
2) SALM: Nice pattern in a bad market.
3) BL: Trying to make the break.
4) JBHT: Also trying to make the move.
5) PETC: Tested the 10 day MVA.
6) Watchlist: FSS
NEW PLAYS
CYMI (Cymer--$40.20; -3.03; optionable): Semiconductor equipment
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/c/cymi.html
STATUS: Put. Tanked today on general tech selling, the move coming off the recent bounce up and test of the 10 day MVA near 45. Volume was stronger but not above average on the selling. We could get a bounce up to test the selling, but since it is early after the test we are looking to capture a move down to near 34 over the near term.
Volume: 1.286M Avg Volume: 1.424M
BUY POINT: $39.45 Volume=1.4M Target=$33.80. Stop=$44
POSITION: CQG TI - Aug. $45 put (delta -55)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cymi.html
LZB (Lazy Boy--$26.91; -1.09; optionable): Recliners
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/l/lzb.html
STATUS: Put. Reported great numbers but is getting sold off for its efforts on above average volume. It toyed with the 50 day MVA at the end of May (28.20), jumped on the good earnings, and then reversed and tanked below the May low today. A consumer stock, but we have been concerned about the home market for quite some time as it shows topping action across the board.
Volume: 350.8K Avg Volume: 206.818K
BUY POINT: $26.50 Volume=300K Target=$23.50 Stop=$29.50
POSITION: LZB SF - July $30 put (delta -68)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lzb.html
Upside:
SALM (Salem Communications--$29.24; -0.11; no options): Radio broadcasting
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/s/salm.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. In a 10-month cup with handle with outstanding accumulation. Up weeks on higher volume (accumulation weeks) outnumber down weeks on higher volume (distribution weeks) 12 to 2. Accumulation has thus been excellent throughout the base and relative strength is already breaking out ahead of the stock. The handle has been a very flat, tight consolidation that tapped the 10 day MVA on the low (28.80), showing a doji. It is trying to build pressure for the breakout.
Volume: 45.1K Avg Volume: 64.454K
BUY POINT: $30.17 Volume=100K Target=$36.2 Stop=$27.50
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/salm.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
BL (Blair Corp.-- $23.96; 0.00; no options): Play Date: 05/21/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/b/bl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still in a very tight handle to a 5-month base, riding up the 18 day MVA. Today BL shot up on sharply higher volume, but pulled back to close off of its intraday high at 23.45. Off of the doji we could still see another try for the breakout. Friday was a decent move off that level on rising, though still below average volume. Excellent accumulation in the base with money flow leading the way up and relative strength ready to breakout as well.
Volume: 28.5K Avg Volume: 14K
BUY POINT $23.85 Volume=45K Target=$27.5 Stop=$22
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bl.html
BLC (Belo-- $23.96; 0.00; optionable): Play Date: 05/25/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/b/blc.html
STATUS: Flat base. Still in a very tight lateral move right at the breakout point, holding nearly steady again for the fifth consecutive session. Volume spiked up Monday, tapping close to the 10 day MVA (23.72) at its low. We could see a further test back (18 day at 23.53), looking for that move to shakeout some sellers and then the breakout.
Volume: 453K Avg Volume: 287.6K
BUY POINT: $24.25 Volume=342K Target=$30 Stop=$22.55
POSITION: Stock and/or BLC JD - Oct. 20c (delta 91)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/blc.html
ECL (Ecolab--$46.52; -1.16; optionable): Play Date: 05/23/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/e/ecl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Trying to break from its 12-week base, but off of the lower-volume move up Friday, ECL pulled right back today. It closed back on the 18 day MVA (46.50), which has been recent support. A bit choppy now in the handle, but we will see if it can hold here and set up the breakout move. Good accumulation in the base, and relative strength has broken out.
Volume: 381.6K Avg Volume: 358.7K
BUY POINT $47.80 Volume=500K Target=$57.36 Stop=$44.45
POSITION: Stock and/or ECL JI - Oct. $45c (delta 66)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ecl.html
ERTS (Electronic Arts-- $62.93; -1.07; optionable): Play Date: 05/30/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/e/erts.html
STATUS: Cup. Could not continue the move Friday, and today ERTS pulled back off of the doji, with increased selling volume. After forming the 6-month cup it may be ready to form a handle (the pre-correction high at 66). We would prefer a drift on lower volume toward 62 over a series of sessions to form the handle.
Volume: 2.95M Avg Volume: 2.89M
BUY POINT: 65.10. New high: $66.12 Volume=4M Target=$79.50 Stop=$61.49
POSITION: EZQ IL - Sept. $60 call, delta 67 and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/erts.html
FTEK (Fuel Tech--$6.41; +0.04; no options): Play Date: 06/01/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/f/ftek.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. A small issue that made a great run in the last quarter of 2001, and since has battled 6.50 as it tests back, making higher lows to form an ascending wedge. Friday FTEK showed a good bounce from its 50 day MVA (6.03) with above average volume behind it, and today the stock managed a gain after testing the 18 day at its low of 6.20, although moving on very low volume. The high is 6.82, with 6.55 being the recent highs. We will use that level for a breakout. Shows great money flow, buying and relative strength.
Volume: 19.6K Avg. Volume: 60.6K
BUY POINT: $6.65 Volume=90K Target=$8 Stop=$5.95
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ftek.html
HYDL (Hydril--$25.45; -1.00; no options): Play Date: 06/01/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/h/hydl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. HYDL tapped all the way back through its 50 day MVA (24.67) today, pulling back up to close as volume dipped but remained above the average. HYDL is in a month-long handle to a back formed after the stock ran to an all-time high of 33 back in June 2001. It has pulled laterally, after having taken an abrupt drop from 26 back to the 200 day MVA in April and then recovering. Despite the wild action today, the last two weeks it has started to show some volume spikes on up sessions, and overall in the base accumulation weeks lead distribution weeks 13 to 10. All it takes is a simple majority. We will see if it pulls back up quickly and can make a breakout.
Volume: 71.4K Avg Volume: 62.6K
BUY POINT: $27.3 Volume=100K Target=$32.75 Stop=$24.40
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hydl.html
JBHT (JB Hunt Transportation--$27.39; +0.06; optionable): Play Date: 06/01/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/j/jbht.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Followed up Friday's strong move with a reach up to 27.97, but it pulled back to close. JBHT broke out of a cup with handle in January, ran to 28, and then formed the current ascending wedge pattern. It was not able to carry through on the breakout, and ascending wedges after such breakouts give it further time to consolidate to give a stronger move. The fact that it can form such a pattern instead of breaking down is a big plus. The accumulation weeks outnumber distribution weeks 7 to 2 in the base; excellent accumulation. Relative strength has broken out.
Volume: 1.073M Avg Volume: 429.4K
BUY POINT: $28.72 Volume=545K Target=$36 Stop=$25.40
POSITION: JHQ KX - Nov. $25 calls, delta 74 and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jbht.html
LRW (Labor Ready--$8.90; +0.02; no options): Play Date: 06/01/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/l/lrw.html
STATUS: Trading range/test of 50 day MVA. LRW is still working its way out of a long base, but it made an important break over resistance at 6 in March. It climbed the 18 day MVA after the breakout, making 4 runs and topping out at 9. It has now gone back to test the 50 day MVA (8.10) and jumped off that level to close last week. Today LRW showed a tight doji after test back to the 18 day MVA (8.53), with volume spiking up. Off of that pattern we could see another test lower, and off of that we will continue to look for a breakout. Relative strength is breaking out, and money flow is moving higher already. Temporary staffing benefits first in the hiring arena during economic recoveries.
Volume: 284.9K Avg Volume: 241K
BUY POINT: $9.25 Volume=360K Target=$12 Stop=$7.90
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lrw.html
NX (Quanex--$37.75; +1.65; no options): Play Date: 06/01/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/n/nx.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA bounce. Good continuation of the move today! NX broke out of a long, long base in March on that tariff nonsense and ran to a new high. Since that breakout it has run up the 18 day MVA, making the usual four bounces up off of that level, topping off at 38 on the move. It tested below the 50 day MVA, making a rebound on strong volume Friday, and continuing up today as volume continued to be strong. Accumulation has been very good, with strong buying and money flow zooming up. Stronger economic recovery means more iron and steel use and the U.S. market is now protected to a certain extent.
Volume: 297.6K Avg Volume: 100.1K
BUY POINT: Still a buy on a move over 38 Volume=150K Target=$43.8 Stop=$35.43
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nx.html
OSI (Outback Steakhouse-- $39.26; -0.37; optionable): Play Date: 05/29/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/o/osi.html
STATUS: Test breakout. A tough day to continue up Monday, and OSI dipped back after Friday's strong move off of the breakout test. Volume was down on the selling and OSI pulled up a bit to close off of the intraday low. Relative strength has broken out on the move. We can still look at new positions on a hold of 39 and strong move up.
Volume: 433.2K Avg Volume: 507.8K
BUY POINT: New positions over 39.75 (original buy point at $39.05). Volume=720K Target=$46.94 Stop=$36.32
POSITION: OSI KG - Nov. $35 call, delta 76 and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/osi.html
PETC (Petco--$25.53; -0.03; no options): Play Date: 06/01/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/p/petc.html
STATUS: Test breakout. We got into PETC early in May but got shaken out when the stock ran below its 50 day MVA. Just in time for the big volume breakout 5 sessions ago on strong volume. Since then it has pulled back to test the breakout, moving on very low volume and holding above the 10 day MVA (24.99), and Monday PETC took a small bounce from that level. Looking for a volume on a continued move. Cats and dogs are big and consumers are not shy about spending money in this economy.
Volume: 175K Avg Volume: 277.5K
BUY POINT: $25.85 Volume=300K Target=$31 Stop=$24.04
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/petc.html
XRAY (Dentsply-- $39.18; -0.88; optionable): Play Date: 05/25/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. XRAY was working on the breakout again last Thursday on strong, above average volume, but has pulled back again. Volume has dipped on both days of selling, and XRAY closed wit the range of last week's lows, just below the 18 day MVA (39.30). Relative strength is very strong and money flow is leading the way ahead of price. It has already hit our buy point, and we are holding here and looking for a move back up. If we get it, we can look at new positions on a move over 40.50 on strong volume.
Volume: 237.4K Avg Volume: 331.6K
BUY POINT: New positions over 40.50 (original buy $40.35). Volume=465K Target=$48.25 Stop=$37.53
POSITION: Stock and/or XEQ JG - Oct. 35c (delta 78)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/xray.html
Downside
See updates below.
Continuing plays:
We have put all plays in a summary table that contains the date the stock was put on the report (so you can go back and check out the details of the play) and the other pertinent information. This provides more information than the watchlist summaries and still contains comments when appropriate. VIEW THIS IN COURIER NEW, 12 FOR BEST RESULTS. You can also easily print the table from the website (www.investmenthouse.com) from the 'current reports' section. If you just want to print the table you can cut and paste it to a word document setting the font to Courier New size 12. Just left click on the beginning of the table and drag to the table end. After selecting, right click and select 'copy.' Paste into your word processor. Select it all and choose Courier New, font size 12.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol AvgV Stop
ABF 05/11 BO 21.74 -0.83 22.23 25.75 456K 677K 20.25
ATH 05/16 Test 50 70.27 -0.63 68.5 75 687K 1.2M 63
BGG 05/11 Put 39.16 -1.86 39.4 35 248K 140K 42
BL 05/21 cup hdl 22.9 -0.03 23.85 27.5 28K 14K 22
BLC 05/25 Flat 23.96 0 24.25 30 456K 288K 22.55
Waiting for the breakout. May edge back to the 10 day MVA here.
BRO 04/22 cup hdl 34.82 -0.83 35.63 42.75 207K 336K 32.95
Turned back on us, but lower volume. Still waiting.
BYBI 05/23 BO 10.9 -0.16 9.7 12.75 36K 46K 9.02
Another low volume doji at 11.
CCMP 05/20 Put 47 -1.78 51 45 696K 1.4M 53.80
Turing back lower but on low volume.
CDI 05/11 Pennant 26.75 -1.23 30 34.75 84K 58K 27.90
Turned to the 50 day MVA on high volume. May not make the break.
CERN 05/20 A Wedge 52.75 -1.65 56.1 60 341K 469K 51.50
Retreated on lower volume.
CTX 05/11 Put 51.91 -1.84 53.5 49 855K 1.2M 56
Breaking some support on higher volume.
CYMI 06/03 Put 40.2 -3.03 39.45 33.8 1.3M 1.4M 44
DVN 05/25 A Wedge 50.9 -1.35 50.95 61 1.1M 1.1M 47.38
Reversed fast on lower volume. Don't like that.
ECL 05/23 cup hdl 46.52 -1.16 47.8 57.36 408K 359K 44.45
Another reversal after a nice gain, but still holding.
ERTS 05/30 Cup 62.93 -1.07 66.12 79.5 3M 2.9M 61.49
FNFG 05/22 Pennant 24.78 -0.58 25.95 31 68K 43K 24.13
Dropped out of the consolidation on above average volume.
FRX 05/16 Put 71.52 -2.31 75.9 71 1.1M 1.3M 78.50
FSS 05/22 DB hdl 25.26 -0.04 25.8 31 209K 198K 23.99
Still looks very good in the pattern.
FTEK 06/01 A Wedge 6.41 +0.04 6.65 8 20K 61K 5.95
GMP 04/25 cup hdl 18.45 -0.25 18.85 22.62 22K 7.6K 18.25
Breaking down.
GMRK 04/20 Test 50 40.5 -1.83 44.63 55 102K 67K 41.75
Stopped out.
GNTA 05/04 Put 7.18 -2.06 11.75 9 5.4M 1.4M 12
Hit the target.
HAR 05/13 Test 18 54.55 -0.75 58.55 64 268K 214K 54.45
Toying with the 50 day MVA on stronger volume. Close to stop out.
HGR 05/20 Test 50 14.6 -0.3 12.6 19 132K 109K 11.72
Lower volume pause.
HI 05/20 Put 50.94 -0.21 53.45 48.5 3M 3M 56
Starting the fall again.
HLT 05/06 Put 13.72 -0.48 14.3 12 1.5M 2.3M 15.80
HOV 05/28 Put 30 -1.99 26.45 22 837K 368K 29.25
Going to look at this one again.
HSIC 05/15 BO 49.1 -0.48 49.4 56.9 190K 337K 46.50
HYDL 06/01 cup hdl 25.45 -1 27.3 32.75 71K 63K 24.40
IRM 05/01 A Wedge 31.26 +0.26 32.6 39.25 146K 199K 30.75
Tested the 50 day MVA on low volume. Looks like a further drop.
ITN 05/13 DB hdl 13.05 -0.3 13 16.5 140K 112K 11.75
Testing the 18 day MVA on above average volume.
IWM 05/21 Put 94.25 -2.25 97.85 94 1M 0 101
Almost there.
JBHT 06/01 A Wedge 27.39 +0.06 28.72 36 1.1M 429K 25.40
KROL 06/06 BO 23.1 -0.3 20.2 24 365K 303K 19.50
Low volume breather, but could test 22.
LNCR 05/16 cup hdl 29.31 -0.37 32.7 39 804K 1M 30.41
Not good; never came close to the move.
LRW 06/01 BO 8.9 +0.02 9.25 12 285K 241K 7.90
Waiting.
LZB 06/03 Put 26.91 -1.09 26.5 23.5 351K 207K 29.50
MERQ 05/28 A Wedge 32.66 -1.2 35.35 39 4.3M 4.5M 32.88
Toying with the 200 day MVA.
MMC 05/25 Put 98.5 -2.4 101.95 97.75 1.2M 926K 105
Falling hard again.
NFB 04/13 BO 39.02 -0.29 36.55 43.5 469K 668K 37
Holding up well.
NX 06/01 Test 50 37.75 +1.65 36.5 43.8 298K 100K 33.94
OSI 05/29 Test BO 39.26 -0.37 39.05 46.94 436K 508K 36.32
Low volume pause.
OSIP 05/25 Put 28.38 -2.01 31 27.25 1.2M 634K 34.25
Falling hard.
PBG 05/30 Test 18 33.3 +0.28 32.75 36 1.1M 1.3M 30.46
Bounced again but on low volume.
PCLE 05/06 cup hdl 10.32 -0.64 10.27 13 798K 551K 9.40
Not good. Higher volume drop to 18 day MVA.
PETC 06/01 Test BO 25.53 -0.03 25.85 31 175K 278K 24.04
RAH 05/08 Test 18 27.49 -0.65 29.1 35 122K 98K 27.06
Below the 50 day MVA on above average volume. Keep stops.
SALM 06/03 cup hdl 29.24 -0.11 30.17 36.2 45K 64K 27.50
SGR 05/11 A Wedge 31.75 -1.7 34.32 40.75 755K 624K 31.92
Recovered off the test of the 50 day MVA, but hanging on.
SLVN 03/27 cup hdl 26.7 -0.8 27.05 32 283K 309K 26.55
Stopped out.
TEVA 05/15 BO 66.85 -0.18 62.1 67 617K 1M 60.50
Holding its own on low volume.
UVN 05/04 Put 39.6 -0.4 39.95 35.5 1.1M 1.1M 42
Did not fall today, so it may not.
WFC 03/28 A Wedge 51.5 -0.9 50.85 60.52 3.9M 4M 50
Tested the 50 day MVA on the low; showing some weakness.
WL 04/25 Put 61.4 -1.02 65.6 62 98K 78K 67
Hit target.
WYE 05/23 Put 54.6 -0.9 57.5 54 3.1M 4M 59.50
Dropping hard again.
XRAY 05/25 A Wedge 39.18 -0.88 40.35 48.25 237K 332K 37.53
XTO 03/27 A Wedge 20.06 -0.2 20.98 25.98 464K 528K 19.75
Hanging on at the 50 day MVA.
ZMH 05/25 cup hdl 33.55 -1.43 36.95 45 452K 682K 34.36
Tanked below the 50 day MVA, destroying the pattern.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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