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trade stock, stock watch
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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NEW FEATURE: Each play contains an additional link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. We hope you enjoy this new addition.
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Upside:
Play Date: 11/19/2009
HUM (Humana--$40.83; -0.12; optionable): Health care plans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hum.html
After Hours: $40.08
EARNINGS: 02/01/2010
STATUS: Breakout test. HUM formed a nice 7 week cup base at the 50 day EMA (38.46) and broke out a week into October. Nice pattern, nice upside break. It has now come back to test, tapping the 18 day EMA (40.05) intraday and then bouncing sharply to hold the 10 day EMA on the close. Great reach lower with the buyers pushing it right back up. Looks as if HUM is set up to continue the breakout move and run toward the February peak. Simply looks very good.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/HUM.wmv
Volume: 1.529M Avg Volume: 2.503M
BUY POINT: $41.05 Volume=3M Target=$46.15 Stop=$39.54
POSITION: HUA BH - Feb. $40c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hum.html
Play Date: 11/19/2009
REGN (Regeneron Pharmaceuticals--$18.67; -0.71; optionable): Biotch
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/regn.html
After Hours: $18.66
EARNINGS: 11/03/2009
STATUS: Trend reversal. REGN rallied off the March low and then went vertical in late July and on into August. Peaked at 23 and then as quick as it went up, REGN entered a downtrend through early November. REGN held and then gapped higher a week into November, clearing resistance at the 200 day SMA (17.36) on up to 18. Nice trend reversal with a strong gap. This week REGN is testing, coming back to the 50 day EMA (18.48) on very low, below average volume. Great gap to reverse the trend, nice easy test. Looking for REGN to hold at this level and then start back up. That is when we move in for a run up toward its prior high.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/REGN.wmv
Volume: 440.191K Avg Volume: 587.853K
BUY POINT: $18.89 Volume=650K Target=$22.94 Stop=$18.21
POSITION: RQP EW - May $17.50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/regn.html
Play Date: 11/19/2009
XTEX (Crosstex Energy--$5.69; -0.16; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xtex.html
EARNINGS: 11/06/2009
STATUS: ABCD. XTEX blasted out of a short triangle mid-October, surging just over 7 on the run. It has tested back to end October and on into November, stair-stepping lower to the 50 day EMA (5.57). That has formed the ABCD pattern with the D point forming this week as XTEX tested lower and then rebounded off the 50 day on stronger volume. Looking for XTEX to bounce off this rebound and hold the move to the close, giving us the entry point.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/XTEX.wmv
Volume: 318.006K Avg Volume: 351.176K
BUY POINT: $5.88 Volume=450K Target=$7.11 Stop=$5.45
POSITION: EQF BA - Feb. $5c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xtex.html
Downside:
Play Date: 11/19/2009
PSYS (Psychiatric Solutions--$21.24; -0.29; optionable): Healthcare services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psys.html
After Hours: $21.23
EARNINGS: 10/27/2009
STATUS: Bear flag. PSYS formed a head and shoulders and shoulders spanning August through late October. Earnings came out and PSYS lost its head and shoulders. It sold off to the 200 day SMA (22), tried to hold, but then gapped sharply lower through that support. It has since bounced back up to the 200 day this past week and is sliding laterally in what appears to be a stall. A gap through important support that does not fill the gap tends to continue on the direction of the gap. Looking for PSYS to roll back from here and as it does we move in for the play. A move to the target lands a 48%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/PSYS.wmv
Volume: 1.244M Avg Volume: 961.106K
BUY POINT: $21.09 Volume=1.4M Target=$18.04 Stop=$22.16
POSITION: BYU OX - Mar. $22.50p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/psys.html
Play Date: 11/19/2009
QID (QQQ Proshares UltraShort ETF--$21.14; +0.65; optionable)
After Hours: $21.24
STATUS: With NASDAQ's island reversal we are again looking at QID. After making a new low as NASDAQ made a new high on this rally, NASDAQ and QID gapped. We are looking to play the continuing move upside by QID after the gap. A move to the target lands an 80%ish gain with the option play.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/QID.wmv
Volume: 19.242M Avg Volume: 20.579M
BUY POINT: $21.19 Volume=20M Target=$23.98 Stop=$20.32
POSITION: QOI AT - Jan. $20c (69 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/qid.html
Play Date: 11/19/2009
SCHN (Schnitzer Steel--$45.73; -1.20; optionable): Steel and iron mining, production
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/schn.html
After Hours: $45.72
EARNINGS: 10/27/2009
STATUS: Bear flag. SCHN is back on the report. It broke lower from a five month triangle in late October and broke through important support at 46. It has since rebounded, coming back up to the 200 day SMA (47.68) it broke through on the way down. It gapped to that level Monday but could not punch through and has since slid back down, selling harder on rising, average trade Thursday. Looking to move in as SCHN continues its move lower. A run to the target lands a 56% gain with the January options, 45%ish with the April. If it breaks it likely falls quickly to the target so the January options work, just a shorter fuse given expiration of November on Friday.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/SCHN.wmv
Volume: 623.746K Avg Volume: 565.709K
BUY POINT: $45.52 Volume=625K Target=$40.25 Stop=$47.72
POSITION: SQQ MI - Jan. $45p (-45 delta) or SQQ NI - Feb. $45p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/schn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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