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money investment, investment help
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11/23/09 Investment House Alerts
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IH Alert Subscribers:
Thanksgiving week schedule:
Monday and Tuesday: Usual reports focusing on technical summary
Wednesday: Continuing Play tables, market data summary
Thursday: Market closed
Friday: Market open half session. Continuing Play tables, market data summary
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit alerts: None issued
Buy alerts: CRNT; HTCH; HUM; OMN
Trailing stops: JOYG
Stop alerts: None issued
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VIDEO TECHNICAL SUMMARY. Detailed chart-based analysis of the key index and leadership charts are covered.
TO VIEW THE VIDEO TECHNICAL SUMMARY ONLY CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/TechnicalSummary.wmv
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SUMMARY:
- Dollar, gold, and maybe some economic data drive stocks higher.
- Fed gives left-handed support to the dollar.
- Housing starts jump, inventories fall
- SP500 continues its fight with key resistance, not getting much help from the other indices.
- Light trade and weaker dollar likely to keep stocks up for the week.
Fed supports a strong dollar, apparently, however, at a lower level.
We tried to get the transcript repaired overnight but to no success. We apologize for this and will have it up and running today. The following is the Monday market data with some commentary on volume and today in addition to the Technical Summary Video
THE MARKET
MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX: 21.16; -1.03
VXN: 22.03; -0.46
VXO: 19.62; -1.5
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.67; -0.25
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 44.4%. Finally cracking some from the recent spike (48.3% last week, 49.5% prior). Of course this is just in time for SP500 to break key resistance. Believers may have waned but the liquidity did not. Still well over the 35% level that is the threshold for what is considered a bullish climate. It does not mean things are necessarily bearish; that takes a reading in the 60% range. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level. Dramatic rise from 21.3% in November 2008, the bottom on this leg. This last leg down showed us the largest single week drop we have ever seen, falling from 33.7% to 25.3%. Hit 40.7% on the high during the rally off the July 2008 lows. 30.9% was the March low. In March the indicator did its job with the dive below 35% and the crossover with the bears. A move into the lower 40's is a decline of significance. A move to 35% is a bullish indicator.
Bears: 26.7%. Bounced up on the selling in conjunction with the decline in bulls. Up from 24.7% and 22.5% before that. Rebounding from the big drop 31.1% and 35.6%. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: +29.97 points (+1.4%) to close at 2176.01
Volume: 1.791B (-9.53%). Even lower, below average volume as NASDAQ gapped higher and tested the October high, but retreated to close. Low volume should be able to drive a market with its trend, and NASDAQ is moving with the trend, but then why did it get shoved back from its high? Not everyone was a buyer on Monday.
Up Volume: 1.343B (+721.174M)
Down Volume: 466.921M (-887.896M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.42 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.17 to 1
New Highs: 138 (+91)
New Lows: 16 (-15)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: +14.86 points (+1.36%) to close at 1106.24
NYSE Volume: 979.99M (-13.1%). Pathetic volume as well. SP500 faded off its high as well though to a lesser extent than NASDAQ.
Up Volume: 796.089M (+390.625M)
Down Volume: 170.657M (-514.499M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 3.41 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.42 to 1
New Highs: 283 (+200). Starting to get interesting . . .
New Lows: 49 (+12)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
DJ30
Stats: +132.79 points (+1.29%) to close at 10450.95
Volume DJ30: 182M shares Monday versus 230M shares Friday. The low volume was consistent through the market.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
TUESDAY
All eyes on the dollar or rather what the Fed has to say about interest rates, stimulus, and time periods. The Fed has become the witting or unwitting pawn of the Administration's plans regarding what businesses will succeed or fail in the US. The dollar fell back to a critical level, so it is at the lick log once again. It is struggling hard at this level and struggle is starting to suggest the dollar just does not have the mojo to make as serious a run as we had looked for. Looks as if it will test the recent lows and if it breaks, well, there it goes again.
That will also goose the market with more of a holiday style run. It is not at the point where a weak dollar will hurt it as SP500 is the leading index and it is populated by industrials, energy, conglomerates, all with overseas venues. If it leads the others are going to follow though as the chart patterns show, they are not going to be all that willing. After all, the indices gapped higher and closed off their highs, always a precarious position. SPY showed a gravestone on its candlestick chart as did NASDAQ. SOX as well. Any move upside might have the same choppy action seen of late.
The most interesting aspect from a longer term view is how a falling dollar will interact with the resistance SP500 and NASDAQ face. This is key resistance and the indices are trying to make the break, buoyed by the weaker dollar. A rally built upon a factor that ultimately will work against the rally is something of an aberration of nature. Those are usually dealt with harshly. If the market continues the weak dollar rally then we look for some issues in the summer 2010.
For now the market continues to probe that resistance, aided by that weaker dollar. The dollar appears to be the inexorable force that has more power than the resistance levels. Thus if the dollar continues to fall and the indices continue to break higher we close the downside positions that are butting their stops. At the same time we continue taking good upside positions as they present. After a gap such as Monday it is more difficult, particularly when many stocks peeled back from their highs in somewhat indecisive action. As always we will see what the market is going to give us for entries.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2176.01
Resistance:
2177 is a low from March 2008
2191 is the October 2009 peak
2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
Support:
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2155 is the March 2008 intraday low
The 18 day EMA at 2150
2143 is the October 2009 range low
The 50 day EMA at 2113
2099 is the mid-September 2008 closing low
2070 is the September 2008 intraday low
2060 is the August peak
2048 is the early October 2009 closing low
2016 is the early August peak
1984 from late September
1962 is the bottom of the August 2009 range.
1947 is the October gap down point
1897 is the October post gap intraday high.
1880 is the June peak
1862 is the July peak
The 200 day SM A at 1838
S&P 500: Closed at 1106.24
Resistance:
The March/July up trendline at 1105 is right there
1106 is the September 2008 low
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
1185 from late September 2008
1200 from the July 2008 low
Support:
1101 is the October high
1059 is the 2007 down trendline
The 18 day EMA at 1089
1080 is the September 2009 peak
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak
The 50 day EMA at 1066
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high
The August peak at 1040
The early October 2009 closing low at 1025
The early August intraday peak at 1018
The November 2008 peak at 1006 closing 1007.53 intraday
992 is the August 2009 consolidation low
956 is the June intraday peak
944 is the January 2009 high
The 200 day SMA at 938
935 is the January closing high
Dow: Closed at 10,450.95
Resistance:
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,963 is the July 2008 low
Support:
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
The 18 day EMA at 10,211
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
The 50 day EMA at 9937
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak
9654 is the November 2008 high
9625 is the October 2008 closing high
9620 is the August 2009 peak
9430 is the early October low
9387 is the mid-October peak
9116 is the August low
9088 is the January 2009 peak
8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation
8934 is the December closing high
8878 is the June peak
8829 is the late November 2008 peak
The 200 day SMA at 8758
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
Existing Home Sales, October (10:00): 6.10M actual versus 5.70M expected, 5.54M prior (revised from 5.57M)
November 24 - Tuesday
GDP - Second Estimate, Q3 (08:30): 2.8% expected, 3.5% prior
GDP Deflator - Second, Q3 (08:30): 0.8% expected, 0.8% prior
Case Shiller 20 City, September (09:00): -9.10% expected, -11.32% prior
Consumer Confidence, November (09:00): 47.5 expected, 47.7 prior
FHFA Home Price Index, September (10:00): 0.1% expected, -0.3% prior
FOMC Minutes, 11/04 (14:00)
November 25 - Wednesday
Personal Income, October (08:30): 0.2% expected, 0.0% prior
Personal Spending, October (08:30): 0.5% expected, -0.5% prior
PCE Prices, October (08:30): 0.1% expected, -0.5% prior
PCE Prices - Core, October (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Initial Claims, 11/21 (08:30): 500K expected, 505K prior
Continuing Claims, 11/14 (08:30): 5560K expected, 5611K prior
Durable Orders, October (08:30): 0.5% expected, 1.0% prior
Durable Orders ex Trans, October (08:30): 0.7% expected, 0.9% prior
Michigan Sentiment-Rev, November (09:55): 67.0 expected, 66.0 prior
New Home Sales, October (10:00): 405K expected, 402K prior
Crude Inventories, 11/20 (10:30): -0.887K prior
End part 1 of 3
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