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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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NEW FEATURE: Each play contains an additional link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. We hope you enjoy this new addition.
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Upside:
Play Date: 11/24/2009
ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch--$39.42; +0.26; optionable): Teen apparel, stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anf.html
After Hours: $39.59
EARNINGS: 11/13/2009
STATUS: Flag. ANF was moving higher in an ascending channel and then it broke higher with a gap on its earnings report, moving out of the channel and rallying up to 42. The past week ANF has tested that breakout, fading on lower, below average volume back to the top of the channel, the rising 10 day EMA on the Tuesday close, and holding over the 38% Fibonacci retracement. Nice tight doji at the 10 day on rising, average volume; that is an indication the pullback is nearing its end and we are thus ready to move in as ANF rebounds from this level.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/ANF.wmv
Volume: 4.297M Avg Volume: 4.292M
BUY POINT: $39.88 Volume=5M Target=$44.95 Stop=$37.89
POSITION: ANF BO - Feb. $38c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/anf.html
Play Date: 11/24/2009
CGA (China Green Agriculture Inc.--$15.68; -0.17; optionable): Ag chemicals, China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cga.html
After Hours: $15.74
EARNINGS: 05/31/2006
STATUS: Flag. The chemicals sector, particularly ag, is back on track. CGA surged out of a 3 month trading range mid-November, blasting off on a tremendous volume surge. Added to the gain Friday and then started to test this week fading back to tap at the rising 10 day EMA (14.94) and the 38% Fibonacci retracement on the intraday lows. Excellent setup and breakout, and we are ready to move in as CGA continues higher off of this test.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CGA.wmv
Volume: 852.769K Avg Volume: 842.254K
BUY POINT: $15.91 Volume=1.2M Target=$19.44 Stop=$14.78
POSITION: CGA CC - Mar. $15c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cga.html
Play Date: 11/24/2009
PII (Polaris--$44.97; -0.38; optionable): Recreational vehicles (PWC, snowmobiles, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pii.html
After Hours: $44.97
EARNINGS: 10/15/2009
STATUS: Triangle. Looking at PII again as it sets up once more in a 6 week triangle using the 50 day EMA (43.31) as support as it makes higher and higher lows. Gapped higher Monday and kissed the breakout point from the trendline formed off the October peak, then tested lower intraday Tuesday before snapping back. That shows the buyers continue to step in at higher and higher levels, building pressure for the breakout. Looking for PII to break on through and give us a buy.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/PII.wmv
Volume: 260.725K Avg Volume: 363.917K
BUY POINT: $45.54 Volume=500K Target=$52.88 Stop=$43.11
POSITION: PII CI - Mar. $45c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pii.html
Downside:
Play Date: 11/24/2009
ADSK (Autodesk--$23.88; -0.48; optionable): Technical software (3-D)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adsk.html
After Hours: $24.36
EARNINGS: 11/17/2009
STATUS: Downside gap. ADSK trended upside to a new rally high . . . just ahead of its earnings. It gapped lower and through the 50 day EMA, breaking important support on the gap. It then moved laterally the next four sessions, not attempting to fill the gap a sign of weakness. Breakaway gaps tend to move in the direction of the gap once the initial gap wears off. Tuesday ADSK sold off sharply after trying to bounce Monday. Looking to move in as ADSK continues to move lower for a play down to the next level. A move to our initial target lands a 57%ish gain. It can easily fall to the 200 day SMA at 20.77.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/ADSK.wmv
Volume: 3.365M Avg Volume: 3.696M
BUY POINT: $23.69 Volume=5M Target=$22.00 Stop=$24.78
POSITION: ADQ ME - Jan. $25p (-62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/adsk.html
Play Date: 11/24/2009
FLR (Fluor Corp.--$43.18; -1.00; optionable): Heavy construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flr.html
After Hours: $43.85
EARNINGS: 11/09/2009
STATUS: Descending triangle. FLR is deconstructing itself, moving in a continuing downtrend for the past three months after peaking in August. It ended October with a sharp break below the 200 day SMA (46.32), then tried to recover that level, working laterally through November. It could not hold attempts to break over that level, however, and with lower and lower highs it formed a descending triangle. Tuesday FLR broke lower and volume jumped, moving above average once more for the first time in over a week. Looks as if FLR is ready to break out the bottom of its pattern and continue the downside trend. Our initial target is fairly modest, but it gives us a 50%ish gain. We will bank some gains there and then see if FLR can sell down to the 37.50 level where another support level resides.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/FLR.wmv
Volume: 4.155M Avg Volume: 3.366M
BUY POINT: $43.05 Volume=4M Target=$40.00 Stop=$44.55
POSITION: FLR MI - Jan. $45p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/flr.html
Play Date: 11/24/2009
NBR (Nabors Industries--$20.71; +0.36; optionable): Oil and gas drilling, exploration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nbr.html
After Hours: $20.71
EARNINGS: 10/20/2009
STATUS: Bear flag. Energy stocks are heading in two directions, up and down. NBR was up until October. Then it sold off to the 50 day EMA (21.07), and on the rebound it retraced 78% of the move. It tried that level twice and then failed, this time falling through the 50 day. Sharp volume as it fell. Monday and Tuesday NBR was putting in a bounce, moving up toward the 50 day on lower volume. Looking for it to fail here and roll over. If it does and holds the move into the last hour we move in. A move to the target lands a 50%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/NBR.wmv
Volume: 6.047M Avg Volume: 5.937M
BUY POINT: $20.51 Volume=7.5M Target=$18.34 Stop=$21.22
POSITION: NBR MX - Jan. $22.50p (-64 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nbr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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