stock watch, stock split

Begin Part 2 of 3

THE PLAYS: KRB announced the split today! We have had some excellent moves from put plays, and we have a bunch set up now!

BONUS PLAYS: With some fear in the air we are looking for a bounce from gold stock BVN. EXPE started its drop in a big way, hitting the buy point and is still a buy. Ditto for QCOM, understanding that with both we could get a gap down, but we can gauge the severity and either jump in quickly or see if a bounce to test the gap occurs.

GME (Gamestop--$23.25; 0.00; optionable): Electronics stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gme.html
STATUS: A new issue since February, GME broke from a cup in May, crashing back down to the 50 day MVA (then 20, now 21.32) but holding to set up another move. That move took the stock up to a high of 24.30, and instead of crashing back, this time GME has held up nicely. It has pulled back in a handle-type consolidation, holding the 10 day MVA (23.09) as volume decreases. Today GME showed a doji over support, and we will look for a bounce and strong move to a new high. Target: 29
BUY POINT: Bounce: Over 23.75 on above average volume (310k; today down to 175k). Stop: 22.40
POSITION: Stock and/or October $22.50c to buy (JME JX).

NEU (Neuberger Berman--$41.24; -1.22; optionable): Asset management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/neu.html
STATUS: Put. NEU fell out of a cup with handle in April but managed to hold the 200 day MVA (42.33) on the drop, but after a bounce in early May the stock has come back down again, and this time the 200 day could not hold it. Monday NEU crashed through, hitting a low Tuesday of 41.54 before bouncing back up to test former support on lower volume. The test failed as NEU dropped back today, with selling volume spiking up to a strong 256k (avg. 159k). This was the 'kiss goodbye,' and we are looking for a run down to a target of 36.
BUY POINT: Below 41 on continued strong volume; we could easily get a gap below that level, and can take positions on a gap down or, preferably, after a relief bounce as the stock starts to turn back down. Stop: 43
POSITION: October $45p to buy (NEU VI - 2 OI, delta -.61).

MDC (MDC Holdings--$45.11; +0.35; optionable): Residential construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mdc.html
STATUS: Put. MDC made a good run with its sector but after hitting 52.50 in early May the stock has experienced a steady drop. MDC took out its 50 day MVA (46.35), but flirted with that level (in the range of March highs) before finally peeling back last week. It hit a low of 42.80 Tuesday and bounced, but today signaled that it is ready to resume the fall; MDC reached back over the 50 day intraday, but pulled way back to close with a loose doji right at its down trendline (from early May) and 10 day MVA. Volume spiked high at 277,400 (avg. 189k), so we look for a resumption of selling and a put play down to 38.25 (the 200 day MVA at 38).
BUY POINT: A drop through 44 on continued strong volume. Stop: 47
POSITION: July or September $50p to buy (MDC SJ - 20 OI, -.73 delta; MDC UJ - no OI, -.61 delta).

Quick updates prior bonus plays:

ODSY - Still set up well for a move
ACXM - Dipping now and protecting from a strong drop back
INTU - The 18 day is in danger; protecting positions for a fall
BJ - Doji after the bounce could signal more downside
PSUN - Gapped over the 200 day but reversed, and looking for a drop back again
THQI - Falling back again, we will see how it deals with recent support at 30
WY - Bounced as expected from the 50 day, but weakly. Protecting from a breach of support.
ATVI - Just a complete destruction after the breakout move
IGEN - Dropping back, but slowly so far
LNY - Stubbornly holding up under resistance, but still looking for a drop
GRMN - Holding up but still cautious that it could turn over
DISH - Broke down through the support at 24
CCRD - Making the drop after the attempted bounce
TDY - Nice bounce, we will see if it can continue

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK: None for this week.

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT BEST PLAYS:
1) SLM - Ready to fall back from the test
2) BRL - Looking to breach longstanding support

SLM (USA Education--$95.00; -0.05; optionable): Looking at a new date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slm.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 7:2 split on 11-21-97 at a price of $132. The annual shareholder meeting 5-10-01 at which time additional shares were authorized.
STATUS: Put. The weak bounce failing at former support. After crashing through the 50 day MVA (95.97) Monday, SLM reversed Tuesday on a 'hammer' doji on strong volume. That indicates a bounce, which we were watching for to set up a put. We got the bounce Wednesday, on the weaker volume which points to a possible failure at the former support-turned resistance. Today SLM gapped up a bit but could not challenge the 50 day, pulling back and closing with a loose doji as volume dipped again (413k; avg. 691k). Looks like a drop, and we are targeting 89 on the put play (200 day at 88.43).
BUY POINT: A move below 94 on average or better volume.
POSITION: July $100p to buy (SLM ST - 19 OI, -.70 delta).

BRL (Barr Laboratories--$64.10; -1.60; optionable): Generic drugs.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brl.html
STATUS: Put. From October 2001 through May, BRL made steadily lower highs as it held lows at the 63-64 level. BRL held 63 in a consolidation throughout April and the first week in May, finally rebounding over one of the down trendlines (connecting October, January and March highs). That bounce could not take out its March high, and reversed from that point (which is with its down TL connecting August, December and January highs). After a strong drop last Friday and Monday, BRL again found support at 63, but the bounce back from that level was on decreasing volume. BRL dropped back again today, and we are looking for it to finally break down through support (the August trendline bolsters support at 63). Target: 55
BUY POINT: A drop through 63 on above average volume (491k; today down to 322k). Stop: 67
POSITION: August $70p to buy (BRL TN - 135 OI, -.65 delta).

PRE-SPLITS BEST PLAYS: Remember, we try to grab Pre-Splits as they break out of good patterns or as they start a run right before the split. Not looking for home runs, but looking for those $3 to $4 moves running into the split, watching for topping signs and potential resistance. Not huge money, but it can be very steady. We set our initial stops at the 7-8% range below the purchase price (or just below obvious support), and move them up on a move to preserve our profits.
1) KSWS - Weak test set up a put
2) PNRA - Strong move back through the 50 day
3) ATK - Continued up but still looking for a drop

KSWS (K-Swiss--$42.05; -0.79; optionable): Splits 2:1 effective June 22.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/ksws.html
STATUS: After making a lower high on its last bounce, KSWS dropped like a stone, taking out its 50 day MVA (43.83) with vigor Tuesday. Such a drop typically will precede an attempt to bounce, which is what we waited for and got Tuesday. It was, as expected, weak (much lighter volume), and today KSWS turned back down and hit our put buy point, although volume was even lighter at 45,100 (avg. 91k). Still a buy on this drop, targeting 37.
PLAY: Below 41.25 on average or better volume, with July $45p to buy (SWU SI - no OI, -.76 delta). Stop: 45

PNRA (Panera Bread--$66.44; +2.29; optionable): Splits 2:1 effective June 25.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pnra.html
STATUS: After giving up the 50 day MVA (65.37) last week, PNRA hit as low as 60 but reversed to test that level. What looked like a possible failure turned into a strong move back through resistance when PNRA announced solid sales numbers and raised guidance. PNRA closed back over the 50 day (with its former 'neckline' of the April-May head & shoulders) and right at its short-term down trendline from early May, as volume shot up to 818k (avg. 427k). Aggressive from here, and we will watch 72.50 for resistance with a quick play (73.60 is the high).
PLAY: Aggressive: Over 67 on continued strong volume, with July $65c to buy (UPA GM).

ATK (Alliant Techsystems--$105.15; +3.25; optionable): Aerospace/Defense. Splits 3:2 on or about June 11.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atk.html
STATUS: Triggered stops with its recent, hard drop through the 50 day MVA (104.31), rebounding the last two days to challenge that level. ATK managed to close back over the 50 day today, but volume was again was substantially lighter than what we saw on Tuesday's drop. We will see if it can hold onto support, but are looking for a failure and drop back. The stock has been a great one for us to the upside, but has turned over from its high at 115, twice failing at 110 immediately before the fall. Our original put buy point was 100, but after tapping 100.61 today and then rallying, we are adjusting it upward a bit. Target: 90 (200 day MVA at 88.49).
PLAY: A drop through 102 on continued strong volume (488k today; avg. 345k), with August $110p to buy (ATK TB - 23 OI). Stop: 106

CONTINUING CANDIDATES BEST PLAYS: CYN is also setting up a put
1) RCII - Fighting resistance and looks to drop

RCII (Rent A Center--$54.70; -0.50; optionable): Rental & Leasing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rcii.html
STATUS: After a great run that hit a high of 63.88 in mid-May, RCII is showing weakness. It gave up the 50 day MVA (55.27) last week, and has bounced around that level since. It could not hold an initial move back over that level, and this week fell back and has unsuccessfully tried to move back over, but volume has been weak (way down today to 120k; avg. 380k) and it has shown consecutive dojis under resistance. Looking for the drop back from here, and money flow and buying are in the tank. Target: 47
BUY POINT: A drop through 53.35 on average or better volume. Stop: 56.60
POSITION: July $60p to buy (RQG SL - 2 OI, -.56 delta).

POST-SPLIT BEST PLAYS:
1) PRV - Forming a handle
2) LLL - Relief bounce could set up a put
3) PFCB - Looks like a further drop

PRV (Province Healthcare--$24.93; -0.27): Formerly PRHC. Hospitals. Split 3:2 effective 5-1-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prv.html
STATUS: The handle to the double bottom has turned into a small cup as PRHC has made a move up from its 50 day MVA (currently 23.48). Last Thursday saw a good volume surge push the stock up toward the recent (handle) high at 26.15, and it has since pulled back a bit into a handle, with volume dropping steadily to very low levels, and holding over the 10 day MVA (24.71). Today PRV pulled back off of a doji, but with the very low volume we will look for the stock to make a move up and breakout. Target: 30 on existing positions; on a strong breakout we can modify that.
PLAY: Aggressive: A bounce over 25.60 on above average volume (avg. 610k), with stock and/or September $23.375c to buy (DAH IW - 5 OI). Breakout: 26.22 on volume of 920k, with the same positions. Stop: 24.38

LLL (L-3 Communications--$59.52; +3.77; optionable): Telecommunications. Split 2:1 effective 5-21-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lll.html
STATUS: Another stock that has been very strong for us, but has turned over. It tried to bounce last week from its 50 day MVA (60.89), but when it failed it fell very hard, dropping on massive volume from 64 down to a low on Wednesday's doji at 54.78. Today it made a big relief bounce, running back up on volume that was a bit lighter at 2.97m (avg. 891k). It is now back just below the 50 day (10 day at 60.25), and this bounce looks to be one that simply sets up more downside. Looking to catch the drop. Target: 51 (200 day MVA at 49.72).
PLAY: A drop back through 58 on continued strong volume, with July or October $65p to buy (LLL SM - 89 OI, -.66 delta, LLL VM - 20 IO, -.54 delta).

PFCB (PFChang's China Bistro--$33.76; +0.23; optionable): Restaurants. Split 2:1 effective 5-2-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfcb.html
STATUS: One of the restaurants that really took off in the struggling market, but after four very strong runs up its 18 day MVA, it pulled back to the 50 day (35.43) but did not stop there. In fact, last week PFCB blew through that support as if it was not there, tanking to a low of 31.35 last Friday before pulling back up a bit. The move back up has been gradual and on light volume, and today it gapped up but showed a 'hanging man' doji at the recent intraday highs, with volume up but again below average at 592k (avg. 503k). Set up to drop. Target: 28 (200 day MVA at 27.16).
PLAY: Below 33 on average or better volume, with October $37.50p to buy (HUO VU - delta -.59).

End Part 2 of 3

stock watch
stock split