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us stock market, stock split
Begin Part 3 of 3
CONTINUING CANDIDATES BEST PLAYS: CYN and MMM are also setting up puts
1) TGH - Strong stock in leading sector
TGH (Trigon Healthcare--$105.60; +0.90; optionable): Healthcare plans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tgh.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that TGH has ever split its stock. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Being acquired by ATH and moving in sync with that stock, and looking good. TGH gapped way up on the news of the acquisition, and since has formed an ascending wedge. It broke out to a new high Wednesday, since then holding with a couple of lateral moves, Friday moving up a bit on reduced volume (423k; avg. 458k). Solid and the sector is still leading. Target: 125
BUY POINT: 107.36 on volume of 600k. Stop: 101.
POSITION: Stock and/or October $100c to buy (TGH JT - 21 OI).
POST-SPLIT BEST PLAYS:
1) COCO - Nice move!
2) DF - Strong push back up toward the high
3) PRV - In a handle
4) LLL - Relief bounce stalled
5) WLP - Trying for a new high
COCO (Corinthian Colleges--$28.62; +1.35; optionable): Education services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coco.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA bounce. COCO had eased back to the 50 day (26.91), which coincides with its August and April highs, and had been in a bit of a consolidation over support and under the short-term MVA's (27.61). Friday COCO blasted over resistance with a strong bounce, with volume sharply up to 523k (avg. 317k). The all-time (late April) high is at 29.69. Relative strength has broken out. Target: 35
PLAY: Over 29 on continued strong volume, with stock and/or August $27.50c to buy (UCS HY). Stop: 27.06 (7%)
DF (Dean Foods--$37.83; +1.11; optionable): Dairy products. Split 2:1 effective 4-24-02
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/df.html
STATUS: DF made a very nice run the last part of this week, clearing the 50 day MVA (36.74) Wednesday and then powering up Friday with a big volume surge (1.27m; avg. 447k). The move forms a double bottom from early April, and the high is ahead at 38.50. We will see if DF powers ahead or forms a handle first. Relative strength has broken out. Target: 46
PLAY: 38.60 on continued strong volume (min. 675k), with stock and/or September $35c to buy (DF IG). Stop: 36.50
PRV (Province Healthcare--$25.80; +0.80; optionable): Formerly PRHC. Hospitals. Split 3:2 effective 5-1-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prv.html
STATUS: The handle to the double bottom has turned into a small cup as PRV has made a move up from its 50 day MVA (currently 23.58). The move was strong, but as it approached the prior high at 26.15, it pulled back on light volume. The pullback held the 10 day MVA (25), and today PRV pushed up from that level. Volume remained light on the advance, so we will need to see a lot of strength behind a breakout move. Target: 30 on existing positions; on a strong breakout we can modify that.
PLAY: Breakout: 26.22 on volume of 920k (avg. 600k), with stock and/or September $23.375c to buy (DAH IW - 5 OI). Stop: 24.38
LLL (L-3 Communications--$58.55; -0.97; optionable): Telecommunications. Split 2:1 effective 5-21-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lll.html
STATUS: LLL finally tanked after having been a really good upside stock for us for so long. It tried to bounce last week from its 50 day MVA (60.80), but when it failed it fell very hard, dropping on massive volume from 64 down to a low on Wednesday's doji at 54.78. The stock rebounded with a big relief bounce Thursday, but it stalled Friday, showing a loose doji, not quite reaching its 10 day MVA (59.94) at its intraday high. Volume settled way down to 1.76m (avg. 922k). Still looks like the bounce merely set up more downside, and we are watching to catch the drop. Target: 51 (200 day MVA at 49.84).
PLAY: A drop back through 57.90 on increased volume, with July or October $65p to buy (LLL SM - 89 OI, -.68 delta, LLL VM - 20 IO, -.55 delta).
WLP (Wellpoint--$78.06; +2.40; optionable): Healthcare plans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wlp.html
STATUS: WLP has made another good run after having given up the 50 day MVA (then 68, now 70.92). The solid, steady run has taken WLP to a new high, as Friday the stock eclipsed the early May high of 78. Volume was down at 1.49m, but still above the average of 1.26m. We could see the formation of a handle to the v-shaped cup, but on this break to a new high we can look to add to positions. Target: 95
PLAY: Over 78.50 on volume of 2m, with stock and/or October $75c to buy (WLP JO).
WATCHLISTS:
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS WATCHLIST: ABC, BMS, CTAS, DLX, EDMC, HSIC, JEF, STU, TFX (7/17), WFMI and XL.
BRL ($65.72; +1.62): Put. Bounced from recent lows in the large descending wedge, but very low volume on the move up (263k; avg. 488k). Looking for a drop back, but we still want to see a breakdown out of the pattern.
BUY POINT: A drop through 63 on above average volume (491k; today down to 322k). Stop: 67
POSITION: August $70p to buy (BRL TN - 135 OI, -.65 delta).
ABC ($78.64; +2.39): Has bounced nicely from the 50 day MVA (74.28), making a move Friday up toward the high (79.70, late April). Not much volume (up to 870k; avg. 990k), but we are looking for a breakout here.
BUY POINT: 79.80 on volume of 1.5m. Target 92
POSITION: Stock and/or August $75c to buy (ABC HO). Stop: 74.20
HUG ($40.60; +1.05): Working on a new announcement date. Has made a weak bounce back up from the 50 day (38.62) after its controlled, handle-type drop back. Hit the aggressive buy point Friday, but volume was just not there. We will see if it can hold 40 and set up a strong move.
BUY POINT: Over recent (handle) high: 40.78 on volume of 250k.
POSITION: Stock and/or October $35c to buy (HUG JG - No OI as yet).Target: 49. Stop: 37.90.
NYT ($49.32; +0.17): Forecast to announce a split the week of June 17 in conjunction with a board meeting or on 7-16-02 before the market opens with earnings. Still in a choppy consolidation, holding over prior highs. Friday NYT held with a doji right at the 18 day MVA as volume spiked up to 551k (avg. 472k).
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 50 with volume of 500k. Stop: 47.80.
POSITION: Stock and/or October $45c to buy (NYT JI - 89 OI).
MUR ($88.98; +1.40): Has made a nice drop, finally making a relief bounce Friday on very weak volume. The bias in down, and we are targeting 84.
PDCO ($50.21; +0.96): Researching a date. Holding up for now after its nice breakout move, but protecting positions as it bounces around over the 18 day MVA (48.57). Still targeting 57.
LSTR ($105.25; +0.30): Researching a new date. Holding the 10 day MVA and prior highs at 105 in a flat consolidation of dojis, Friday with a bit of a volume spike (85k; avg. 65k). Still could go either way from here, but on a move over 107 we can add to stock positions.
PHM ($54.28; +0.71): Working on a new announcement date. Bounced from the 50 day (52.07) Wednesday, continuing up Friday on increased volume. Has some significant resistance at 56, so we will see if it sets up a breakout or tests back again.
PRE-SPLITS WATCHLIST: Watching APPB (6/12), BER (7/3), JNC (6/11), MI (6/15), IFIN (6/17), PMI (6/18), EXPD (6/25) and GMRK (7/1).
FOSL ($34.30; +1.80): Splits 3:2 effective 6-10-02. Great move! FOSL started Tuesday, making the bounce we were looking for, and after a rest Thursday the stock broke over the recent high (33.61). Targeting 36, but protecting our profits with the split Monday.
YUM ($65.25; +0.09): Splits 2:1 effective 6-18-02. A solid bounce Wednesday from the 50 day, but has stalled a bit with consecutive dojis. We could get a pullback, and we will see if it can hold 64 (18 day MVA). Stop: 61. Target 72.
PNRA ($69.12; +2.68): Splits 2:1 effective June 25. Nice move Friday! PNRA reversed earlier this week from 60, charging back through the 50 day MVA (66.09) on good news of solid sales numbers and raised guidance. Watching 72.50 for resistance on this play.
STJ ($79.80; -0.60): Splits 2:1 effective June 29. Has dropped severely, hitting our put buy points. STJ gapped down with the market Friday only to bounce a bit, but volume remained below average on the action. Targeting 76 on the put, although we could get a bit of an attempt to move up a bit more here.
CONTINUING CANDIDATES WATCHLIST: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date. These include AHC, AZO, BBBY, CAKE, DIAN, EASI, ETH, ETN, GNSS, GOSHA, INVN, JCI, KRB, KSS, MEG, MMM, MTG, PII, RUS, STI, TGIC and WEN.
ACDO ($51.19; +1.72): A wild session! ACDO gapped way down with the market, well below the put target of 48, then hit as low at 42 before rambling back on huge volume (3.3m; avg. 767k). Healthcare was strong in the market as there was still defensive buying going on, and with this strong move we are protecting any remaining positions.
ASD ($74.38; +0.85): Crashed through the 50 day (55.28) Monday and Tuesday, and now is bouncing around that level, moving back over to close Friday as volume remained tame (up to 428k; avg. 565k). We can still look at a put play with a strong drop.
BUY POINT: Below 72.60 on average or better volume. Target 68
POSITION: October $80 puts to buy (ASD VP). Stop: 75
CYN ($51.88; +0.05): Gave up the 50 day (53.54) Tuesday, and after a weak bounce, CYN gapped back over the 50 day but reversed hard Thursday. We were looking at possible test higher to set up a put, but CYN could merely hold status quo Friday after gapping down to open. We will see if it sets up.
DHR ($69.56; +0.86): Still holding support at 68, tapping that level again Friday before reversing on strong volume (1.01m). Has a lot to overcome to the upside here (50 day at 70.14), so we are still looking for a breakdown, and still targeting 63 with current positions.
DRYR ($43.80; +0.70): Has been stubborn on the put play, but is being pushed down from the 10 day MVA, where it closed today after testing near the 50 day at its high of 44.33. A weak move up, and we are still targeting 38 on the put.
FITB ($64.13; +0.56): Strong bounce today (volume up to 2.23m) but the trend is down (10 day has been resistance, at 65). The target is 62.68 (200 day MVA at 62.46).
KLAC ($49.39; -0.57): The typical Friday pattern of a deep gap down (46.45) followed by a rebound. Volume was solid at 17.5m. Still holding the puts, although we could get a bit more of a push upward, we are looking for the trend to hold and push KLAC back down to 44.
MGA ($67.95; +1.05): Really tanked, but has held just above the target of 65 (200 day below at 64.39). A pretty sharp bounce (volume up to 593k), but looking for a failure at the 10 day MVA (69) to get a better exit for remaining positions.
MHK ($62.95; +0.16): Holding steady after giving up the 50 day (64.37). From here, the aggressive can look at a drop through 61.80 on volume of 700k, with August $70p to buy (MHK TN). Target 57.
MMM ($124.44; +0.89): MMM has been holding the 50 day MVA (124.42), looking to again test its up trendline from September (connecting with January and April lows). Friday MMM gapped down to that trendline (122), pushing back up with the market but on continued light volume (down to 1.48m; avg. 1.82m). MMM managed to close back at the 50 day, but the stock is looking weak, and we are looking for a drop and breach of the trendline to set up a put play down to the 200 day MVA (114.41).
BUY POINT: Below 121.80 on above average volume. Stop: 126
POSITION: October $135p to buy (MMM VG - 90 OI, -.64 delta).
RCII ($56.28; +1.58): Has bounced around the 50 day (55.31) since a strong retreat to that support from 63. We were looking for a drop back and a put play after a rebound and a couple of dojis under the support-turned-resistance. Friday RCII followed the market with an initial dip and then a push back over the 50 day, with volume up and above average at 423k. Still looking for the drop.
POST SPLITS WATCHLIST: Watching ACS, APOL, ANN, BBY, CHBS, CHS, ESI, GTK, JAH, JEC, MCHP, OPTN, RNR, RYAN, RYL, SRCL, STZ, UOPX, UPC, WTNY, WTSLA and ZRAN.
AMAT ($20.62; -0.30): Another wild one Friday as AMAT gapped to 19.25 but and then reached as high as 22.25 before pulling way back to close. Still targeting 18, looking for any move up to be short-lived.
CPS ($45.51; -0.21): Split 4:3 effective 6-7-02. Broke from the ascending wedge with a nice move Thursday. Looking for a hold of 45, still targeting 49.50.
FAST ($38.09; +0.79): Split 2:1 effective 5-13-02. Did not drop off of the tombstone doji, instead pushing up again on much lower volume (384k), closing at the 10 day MVA, which pushed the stock back on Thursday's move. The aggressive can play a move back through 39 on volume of 400k, with August $45p to buy (FQA TV).
FBC ($20.80; -0.10): Split 3:2 effective 6-3-02. Nice bounce from the 50 day (19), but FBC gapped up Thursday to 22 and reversed. It tested back to the short-term MVA's today at its low of 20.37, and we look for a hold there.
MKC ($26.12; +0.02): Still in a choppy pattern, resembling an ascending wedge. On a move over 26.85 on volume of 360k, stock and/or September $25c to buy (MKC IE).
PFCB ($35.17; +1.41): Split 2:1 effective 5-2-02. took a huge drop last week, then gradually worked back up on light volume. We were looking for a drop and put play, but after the gap down PFCB ran right back up, closing just below the 50 day MVA (35.42) on increased volume (723k). Still looking for a failure of the move and a drop.
PLAY: Aggressive: Below 34 on increased volume, with October $37.50p to buy (HUO VU - delta -.58).
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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