|
|
stock recommendation, stock market report
Begin Part 3 of 3
Downside
LZB (Lazy Boy-- $26.95; +0.77; optionable): Play Date: 06/03/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/l/lzb.html
STATUS: Put. Definitely getting a test of the breach of the 50 day MVA (28.00) as LZB touched that level on Friday's high and fell back almost $2 on the close. Volume was higher as it reversed on the test, something we like to see on reversals. Given that volume has tried to creep up along with money flow we are going to let the stock break below the recent supporting lows at 25.85 before we take new positions.
Volume: 251.5K Avg Volume: 202.59K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: After a test of 27.75, $26.95. Break support: 25.85. Volume=300K Target=$23.50 Stop=$29.50
POSITION: LZB SF - July $30 put (delta -68)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lzb.html
MDC (MDC Holdings-- $47.27; +2.16; optionable): Play Date: 06/06/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/m/mdc.html
STATUS: Put. MDC hit the buy point Friday and then spent the rest of the session rallying higher to the simple 50 day MVA (47.29) on the close. Volume backed off on the move, and the 50 day MVA is right at the March high. That is a double layer of resistance, and if it holds MDC will have formed the peak of the right shoulder in a head and shoulders pattern. The breakdown would be at 42.50, but as noted above, we are inclined to take new positions or add to positions on the rollover from this level, particularly if the market is weak.
Volume: 253.3K Avg Volume: 190.045K
BUY POINT: New positions: on a move below 46.20 (Original $44.70) Volume=200K Target=$40.35 Stop=$47
POSITION: MDC SJ - July $50 put (-73 delta) MDC UJ - Sept. $50 put (-61 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mdc.html
QCOM (Qualcom-- $30.87; +0.11; optionable): Play Date: 06/05/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/q/qcom.html
STATUS: Put. Gapped down to 28.71 Friday, well on the way to the target. Then it rallied all the way back and managed to close fractionally positive on above average volume. The move puts it right back to its December 2001 to April 2002 down trendline as it tested the 18 day MVA on the high (31.35). We don't think it is going to be successful in its attempt here to break the downtrend. May test up to the 50 day MVA again (33) before it gives up.
Volume: 18.857M Avg Volume: 13.66M
BUY POINT: $31.50 Volume=1.5M Target=$25 Stop=$33.50
POSITION: AAW VH - Oct. 40 put (delta -60) or AAW SH - July 40 put (delta --76). Prefer the October.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/qcom.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING:
We have put all plays in a summary table that contains the date the stock was put on the report (so you can go back and check out the details of the play) and the other pertinent information. This provides more information than the watchlist summaries and still contains comments when appropriate. VIEW THIS IN COURIER NEW, 12 FOR BEST RESULTS. You can also easily print the table from the website (www.investmenthouse.com) from the 'current reports' section. If you just want to print the table you can cut and paste it to a word document setting the font to Courier New size 12. Just left click on the beginning of the table and drag to the table end. After selecting, right click and select 'copy.' Paste into your word processor. Select it all and choose Courier New, font size 12.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol AvgV Stop
ABF 05/11 BO 21.49 -0.13 22.23 25.75 558K 677K 20.25
A hammer doji that tested the 50 day MVA on rising volume. This has turned into a full test of the breakout and looks good.
ATH 06/08 BO 71.9 +1.45 72.25 86.75 1.8M 1.2M 67.19
ATH 05/16 Test 50 71.9 +1.45 68.5 75 1.8M 1.2M 63
AXP 06/04 Put 39.16 -1.2 40.9 37.75 8.3M 4.7M 42.25
Tanked on the put play on massive volume. Looks like more to the downside as credits are hurting.
BGG 05/11 Put 38.02 +0.17 39.4 35 174K 144K 42
Tanked on the gap down but recovered all the loss on rising, above average volume. Has resistance here.
BL 05/21 cup hdl 22.78 -0.12 23.85 27.5 22K 14K 22
BLC 05/25 Flat 24.01 +0.3 24.25 30 301K 281K 22.55
BYBI 05/23 BO 9.64 -0.03 9.7 12.75 57K 45K 9.02
Tested the 18 day MVA further and is holding at support.
CAND 06/06 BO 4.75 -0.17 4.98 6.95 240K 269K 4
CCMP 05/20 Put 45.35 -1.24 51 45 1.1M 1.4M 53.80
Hit the target.
CTX 05/11 Put 54.63 +1.05 53.5 49 1M 1.2M 56
Moved over the 50 day (54.20) but closed off the high as volume shrank. May be the last gasp up.
CVH 06/05 Test BO 33.85 +1.59 32.6 39 692K 419K 29
CYMI 06/03 Put 39.12 -0.03 39.45 33.8 1.7M 1.4M 44
Gapped down and then rallied back to resistance @ 40. It does not have much more upside in it.
DVN 05/25 A Wedge 49.8 +0.14 50.95 61 902K 1M 47.38
Tested the 50 day MVA on the low again.
ECL 05/23 cup hdl 46 -0.25 47.8 57.36 360K 346K 44.45
ERTS 05/30 Cup 63.25 +0.3 66.12 79.5 3.1M 2.9M 61.49
FSS 05/22 DB hdl 25.73 +0.44 25.8 31 170K 189K 23.99
Moving up again on rising volume. Like it.
FTEK 06/01 A Wedge 7.2 +0.96 6.65 8 188K 63K 5.95
Exploded on huge volume! If it tests 6.75, will look for additional positions.
HAR 05/13 Test 18 54.35 +1.73 58.55 64 304K 228K 54.45
Fighting off the selling, but unable to move back over the 50 day. If it cannot climb over 55 and hold, we will have to sell.
HGR 05/20 Test 50 13.74 +0.98 12.6 19 212K 116K 11.72
What a recovery; undercut the 50 day and then exploded.
HI 05/20 Put 52.87 -0.73 53.45 48.5 4.9M 3M 56
Ran into the 18 day MVA and showed a hanging man doji. Looks ready to roll back down.
HLT 05/06 Put 13.79 +0.38 14.3 12 954K 2.2M 15.80
Bounced at 13 but on no volume. Tried but failed to cross the 10 day Friday. Looks weak.
HSIC 05/15 BO 48.61 +0.75 49.4 56.9 151K 317K 46.50
Tested the 50 day MVA, but no volume on the bounce.
IBC 06/08 BO 28 +1.14 28.6 34.96 456K 233K 26.6
ITN 05/13 DB hdl 13.02 -0.24 13 16.5 95K 112K 11.75
Testing 13 and the 18 day MVA still.
JBHT 06/01 A Wedge 26.95 +0.82 28.72 36 282K 438K 25.40
KROL 06/06 BO 22.75 -0.4 20.2 24 259K 322K 19.50
Having trouble with 24, but it is riding up the short term moving averages. May test 22 before moving back up.
LZB 06/03 Put 26.95 +0.77 26.5 23.5 252K 203K 29.50
MDC 06/06 Put 47.27 +2.16 44.7 40.35 253K 190K 47
NFB 04/13 BO 38.1 +0.24 36.55 43.5 832K 655K 37
Blew below the 50 day MVA (38.07) and then recovered almost $2 intraday to close above the 50 day on strong volume. Has to hold.
NX 06/01 Test 50 38.85 +1.35 36.5 43.8 225K 98K 33.94
Another super move w/strong volume. Needs to clear 39.07 this time.
OSI 05/29 Test BO 39.27 +0.09 39.05 46.94 364K 490K 36.32
PBG 05/30 Test 18 32.88 -0.02 32.75 36 884K 1.3M 30.46
Still looks great right at the 10 day MVA.
PCLE 06/08 BO 11.14 +0.21 11.5 19.94 931K 584K 10.25
PCLE 05/06 cup hdl 11.14 +0.21 10.27 13 931K 584K 9.40
PETC 06/01 Test BO 24 -0.95 25.85 31 83K 257K 24.04
Tanked to the 50 day MVA on no volume.
PHTN 06/08 Put 36.83 +0.58 36.25 32.5 775K 526K 39
PNR 06/08 Put 45.66 +0.52 44.7 39.75 169K 306K 47
QCOM 06/05 Put 30.87 +0.11 31.5 25 19M 14M 33.50
SALM 06/03 cup hdl 29.13 +0.39 30.17 36.2 13K 66K 27.50
SGR 05/11 A Wedge 29.7 -0.5 34.32 40.75 810K 620K 31.92
Losing the battle with the 50 day MVA.
TEVA 06/04 cup hdl 63.14 -1.16 68.05 80 934K 1M 63.29
Man. Gapped down and showed a tight doji on average volume. Not the move we were looking for, but did not destroy the pattern.
TEVA 05/15 BO 63.14 -1.16 62.1 67 934K 1M 60.50
UVN 05/04 Put 38.99 +0.14 39.95 35.5 1.3M 1.1M 42
Just not giving the stronger push down, but it is moving that way.
XRAY 05/25 A Wedge 38.3 +0.4 40.35 48.25 418K 330K 37.53
Mercy. Gapped down to 36.35 and then rallied all the way back to close just above the 50 day. Much too volatile for us. If it runs out of gas on this move up we are going to get out.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
stock recommendation
stock market report
|
