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stock split, stock option
Begin Part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS: Good moves today from SLM, hitting the put buy point, and MUR, moving down toward the target, and STJ headed back down. WLP was off the scale after its good numbers.
BONUS PLAYS: WHI continues the breakout move! HCA gapped up and made a big move, although pulling back to close; still looking for strength from that one. FSS is still set up in a good pattern.
BAC (Bank of America--$70.71; -0.42; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bac.html
STATUS: Put. A nice run turned over for BAC last week, as it dropped hard through its 50 day MVA (72.26) last Thursday. It has managed a rebound, tapping up intraday the last two sessions toward the 50 day but retreating to close. The strong drop and failed test produce a solid point to take positions on a put play, and we look for BAC to continue down. Target: 65 (200 day MVA at 64.43).
BUY POINT: Below 70 on increased volume (steady today at 5.46m; avg. 5.62m). Stop: 73
POSITION: August $75p to buy (BAC TO -.61 delta).
TECD (Tech Data--$39.66; -0.63; optionable): Computers wholesale
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tecd.html
STATUS: Dropped back from 48 since mid-April, taking out its 200 day MVA (44) three weeks ago and then consolidating a bit at the 40 level. TECD has tested up to the 18 day MVA (currently 41.45) two of the last four sessions (with its down trendline). After pulling back from that resistance to close Monday, TECD dropped today on increased volume (843k; avg. 955k). In a weak market it is looking like a stronger drop out of the consolidation range, targeting 35.
BUY POINT: Below 39.35 on increased volume. Stop: 41.50 (7%)
POSITION: September $45p to buy (TDQ UI - 25 OI, -.64 delta)
BLI (Big Lots--$17.93; +0.04; optionable): Discount variety stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bli.html
STATUS: BLI broke out from a large cup with handle in May, moving over prior handle (and 2000-2001 cup highs) at 16. After the solid initial move, BLI has pulled laterally for the past two-plus weeks, showing a tight consolidation just over the 10 day MVA (17.79). BLI has thrown up some big volume spikes in this pattern, although it has dipped back with the last couple of dojis (down to 389k today; avg. 534k). Looking for BLI to continue to hold up over support and break out again. Good money flow and relative strength has again broken out ahead of the price. Target: 22
BUY POINT: 18.50 on volume of 750k. Stop: 17.30
POSITION: Stock and/or October $17.50c to buy (BLI JW - 23 OI, delta currently .61).
Quick updates prior bonus plays:
FTEK - Testing back on lower volume after the breakout
NEU - Making the drop back from the 200 day
EXPE - Held on today with a doji after Monday's drop, but looking for more downside
QCOM - Another doji and we will see if it crumbles with a weak market
INTU - Still holding support but cautious
BJ - Dropped back again today but on light volume
THQI - Looking for it to take out recent lows
GRMN - Dropped back to the 50 day , and protecting positions
DISH - Continues to drop!
CCRD - Looking for a drop back toward the target at 12
ACV - Still consolidating under resistance (10 day closing in from above)
CHRZ - Pulled back harder today and protecting positions
EME - Still weak and holding positions for a continued drop toward the target
HP - Holding for a continued fall toward the target
PRU - Dropped back a ton today on a tough day for insurers; protecting from a hard drop through the 18 day
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK:
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT BEST PLAYS:
1) BRL - Looks ready to break support
BRL ($63.55; -2.70): Generic drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brl.html
STATUS: Put. BRL is in a large (from July 2001) descending wedge. Last week BRL again returned to pattern support at 63-64, but it took a weak bounce Friday, gapping up again Monday for a doji just under the 50 day MVA (67.36). Off of that weak move up we predictably got a drop back, but today's selling was strong (632k; avg. 486k), and took BRL back to the recent lows. We now look for the breakdown to finally occur, and send BRL down to the target of 55.
BUY POINT: A drop through 63 on continued above average volume. Stop: 67
POSITION: August $70p to buy (BRL TN - 130 OI, -.68 delta).
PRE-SPLITS BEST PLAYS: Remember, we try to grab Pre-Splits as they break out of good patterns or as they start a run right before the split. Not looking for home runs, but looking for those $3 to $4 moves running into the split, watching for topping signs and potential resistance. Not huge money, but it can be very steady. We set our initial stops at the 7-8% range below the purchase price (or just below obvious support), and move them up on a move to preserve our profits.
1) HCBK - New play breaks out!
HCBK (Hudson City Bancorp--$40.12; +0.65; optionable): Savings & Loan. Splits 2:1 effective June 18.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hcbk.html
STATUS: Made a break from its ascending wedge today. HCBK has made a solid run, moving along its 18 day MVA (currently 38.89) since breaking from a lateral consolidation (on a test of the 50 day) in April. The current pattern formed after a bit of a drop back in mid-May that saw HCBK recover before tapping the 50 day. Today's move was pushed by a very strong volume spike (418k; avg. 128k). Still a buy, and targeting 46. Money flow and buying are strong.
PLAY: A buy up to 40.70, with stock and/or October $35c to buy (KHQ JG).
CONTINUING CANDIDATES BEST PLAYS: CYN and MMM are also setting up puts
1) CYN - Started the drop
2) KLAC - Still a put
CYN ($52.69; +0.81): Regoional bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cyn.html
STATUS: The drop is getting steeper for CYN as it trends down off of the recent high just over 56. It gave up the 50 day MVA (53.45), testing back up twice, the second fall last Thursday being very severe. CYN bounced, but Monday's move back to the 10 day MVA (52.89) was on very weak volume, and CYN turned back today. We are still looking for a strong drop to trigger the put play. Target: 48.50 (200 day MVA at 48.19). BUY POINT: A move below 52 on average or better volume (192k; today up to 127k), with August $55p to buy (CYN TK - 10 OI, delta currently -.56). Stop: 54.25
KLAC (Kla-Tencor--$48.04; -1.74; optionable): Semiconductor equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/klac.html
STATUS: We picked up positions with KLAC after its recent breach and subsequent test of the 200 day MVA (52.78), and after the gap down and reversal Friday and weak attempt to move up Monday, we can look at additional or new positions to the downside. Today KLAC retreated from the 10 day MVA (51), dropping on reduced volume of 10.1m (avg. 12m). With a weak market we are looking for KLAC to continue the drop. Targeting 44.
BUY POINT: A drop through 47.50 on increased volume. Stop: 51.50
POSITION: September $55p to buy (KCQ UK - -.58 delta).
POST-SPLIT BEST PLAYS:
1) LLL - Remains a buy on the put
2) RYL - Poised to drop
3) FBC - Consolidating nicely
LLL (L-3 Communications--$58.74; -1.00; optionable): Telecommunications. Split 2:1 effective 5-21-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lll.html
STATUS: After the big drop last week and subsequent rebound, we have been looking for LLL to resume the selling. Monday it reached up again toward the 50 day MVA (60.68), but volume was lighter and it pulled back to close. The weak move appeared to set up a possible drop, and with war tensions in India easing LLL did fall today, although it managed to hold over 58 (low of 58.04) as volume eased slightly (1.37m; avg. 941k). Poised to continue the drop. Target: 51
PLAY: A drop back through 58 on increased volume, with October $65p to buy (LLL VM - 20 IO, -.55 delta). Stop: 61.50
RYL (Ryland Group--$52.24; +1.03; optionable): Split 2:1 effective 5-31-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/ryl.html
STATUS: RYL gave up the 50 day MVA (52.20) last week, tapping 49.54 before rebounding back over that level. RYL could not hold that move, retreating Monday from the 18 day MVA. Today RYL reached up toward that level at its high of 53.15, but pulled back to close, moving on slightly reduced volume (839k; avg. 692k). After the failed attempt today, looking for a resumption of the drop. Target: 42.50
PLAY: Below 51 on increased volume of 900k, with October $57.50p to buy (RYL VT - 109 OI, -.57 delta).
FBC (Flagstar Bancorp--$20.83; +0.08; optionable): Split 3:2 effective 6-3-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fbc.html
STATUS: FBC made a very nice bounce from the 50 day MVA (19.19) last week, although the initial move culminated with a gap up to 22 (high is 22.75) and reversal. That move held the short-term MVA's (18 day at 20.32), today showing a third consecutive doji over that support as volume has tapered way off (60.8k today; avg. 84.5k). Looking for a hold at support and continued move. Target: 26
PLAY: Stock (no option chain)
End Part 2 of 3
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stock split
stock option
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