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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers: JBHT; FDP. AXP hit the target as did TMCS and UVN. PHTN continued its downward spiral.
Best Plays:
1) CMPC: New. Looks ready to breakout in a continuation of the late rally.
2) ERTS: Still a very good pattern that may breakout on an upside day tomorrow.
3) JBHT: Still a buy on the breakout.
4) PCLE: Ready to head back up.
5) MTB: Weak attempt to move up.
6) LZB: Is it now ready?
Continuing plays table: FSS looks to be starting again. FTEK looks ready after a nice pullback. NX is at it again.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
CMPC (Compucom Systems--$3.94; +0.03; no options): Wholesale computers
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/c/cmpc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Broke out of a 9-month cup with handle base in May and has pulled back to the 50 day MVA (3.70) to test the move. Today it was selling early in the market and then rallied off of that 50 day to post a modest gain on a big volume move over average. Relative strength is breaking out and money flow is leading the way higher. Accumulation weeks outnumbered distribution weeks 12 to 6 in the base; very solid.
Volume: 206K Avg Volume: 150.772K
BUY POINT: $4.1 Volume=200K Target=$5.63 Stop=$3.55
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cmpc.html
Downside:
HSY (Hershey Foods--$65.65; -0.44; optionable): Candy
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/h/hsy.html
STATUS: Put. Broke through the 200 day MVA in late May, tanked, and now has come back up to test that level (67.02). Tuesday it showed a tombstone doji below the 200 day, and Wednesday the high tapped at the 18 day MVA (66.39) and the stock reversed on rising, above average volume. Money flow is tanking.
Volume: 535.8K Avg Volume: 515.636K
BUY POINT: $65.35 Volume=525K Target=$61 Stop=$67.25
POSITION: HSY TN - Aug. $70 put (delta -71)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hsy.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Upside:
ATH (Anthem-- $74.6; +1.35; optionable): Play Date: 06/08/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/a/ath.html
STATUS: New high breakout. Showing better stuff, ATH hit the buy Tuesday on strong volume and added some today on still solid, average volume. It made the breakout and now we let it work for us. Not too far out, and new positions can be taken over 75.25.
Volume: 1.462M Avg Volume: 1.268M
BUY POINT: New positions over 75.25 (prior 72.25 and 73.40). Volume=1.8M Target=$86.75 Stop=$67.19
POSITION: ATH IN - Sept. 70 call (62 delta) and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ath.html
BL (Blair Corp.-- $22.90; -0.09; no options): Play Date: 05/21/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/b/bl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle (5 month). PATIENTLY waiting. Still in the very tight range and showing a hammer doji on the candlestick pattern today on above average volume. That means it sold down and recovered on strong volume. Probably due to the late recovery; we have to let it make the breakout on that strong volume.
Volume: 18.6K Avg Volume: 14.772K
BUY POINT $23.85 Volume=45K Target=$27.5 Stop=$22
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bl.html
CAND (Candies, Inc.-- $4.86; +0.01; no options): Play Date: 06/06/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/c/cand.html
STATUS: Test breakout. After the big move and reversal Tuesday, CAND tested the 18 day MVA on the low (4.56) and rebounded to close flat. Volume was very low and back below average as the candlestick chart showed a tight doji with tail. A good test and it now may be ready to try again.
Volume: 161.2K Avg Volume: 283.772K
BUY POINT: $5.20 Volume=500K Target=$6.95 Stop=$4.40
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cand.html
ERTS (Electronic Arts-- $63.29; +0.61; optionable): Play Date: 05/30/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/e/erts.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Is now in a cup with handle, having formed a very nice, low volume handle the past three weeks. Today it tested all the way to the 50 day MVA on the low (61.02) and rebounded to close back above the 10 and 18 day MVA (62.90). The volume was still below average, and we really like the nice recovery: buyers came in to support it as the market recovered. That is what you want to see in a handle. Still has that good accumulation, and it looks to be preparing for the breakout.
Volume: 2.505M Avg Volume: 2.921M
BUY POINT: 65.10. New high: $66.12 Volume=4M Target=$79.50 Stop=$61.49
POSITION: EZQ IL - Sept. $60 call, delta 67 and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/erts.html
IBC (Interstate Bakeries--$28.44; -0.02; optionable): Play Date: 06/08/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/i/ibc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After Friday's bounce up off the 50 day MVA on the test of the breakout from the 8-month flat base in May, IBC has slowed down, holding up on lower volume. After such a ballistic move Friday that is not out of the norm. Now it needs to regroup and deliver the breakout that we are looking for. Great accumulation during the base with accumulation weeks leading distribution weeks 10 to 2. Relative strength has already broken out and money flow remains strong.
Volume: 176.8K Avg Volume: 237K
BUY POINT: $28.70 Volume=400K Target=$34.96 Stop=$26.60
POSITION: IBC JE - Oct. $25 call (75 delta) and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ibc.html
JBHT (JB Hunt Transportation-- $28.85; +1.38; optionable): Play Date: 06/01/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/j/jbht.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Made the break today! JBHT hit the buy point and volume spiked up to where we wanted it to be. It faces the January high at 29.39, but we are looking for a continued strong move toward the target. The breakout was set up by a good, low volume shakeout, and very strong buying and money flow, and solid accumulation in the base.
Volume: 834.5K Avg Volume: 435.136K
BUY POINT: A buy up to 30 although we will likely see a rest before that point. Volume=500K Target=$36 Stop=$26.25.
POSITION: JHQ KX - Nov. $25 calls, delta 76 and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jbht.html
OSI (Outback Steakhouse-- $38.12; -0.01; optionable): Play Date: 05/29/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/o/osi.html
STATUS: Test breakout. After edging up along the 10 day MVA (38.65) OSI tanked back Tuesday on stronger volume. The move took it back below the 18 day (38.39), and today OSI held just under that level for a doji. Still holding the prior highs from its cup/ascending wedge at 38, and we will see if that can hold and let it set up again.
Volume: 413.2K Avg Volume: 482.9K
BUY POINT: New positions over 39.75 (original buy point at $39.05). Volume=720K Target=$46.94 Stop=$36.32
POSITION: OSI KG - Nov. $35 call, delta 73 and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/osi.html
PCLE (Pinnacle Systems-- $11.60; +0.38; optionable): Play Date: 06/08/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/p/pcle.html
STATUS: Testing breakout. Hit another buy point Monday with a strong breakout move, but immediately reversed, which is not the action we look for. However, PCLE tapped its 18 day MVA at the intraday low of 10.76 and managed to push back up to close, with volume down again but still above average. We will see if PCLE can keep the momentum upward and take out the April 2001 high at 13.60.
Volume: 917.4M Avg Volume: 622.363K
BUY POINT: Still a buy on the current move ($11.50 buy point Monday). Volume=1M Target=$19.94 Stop=$10.25. After that we will look for a rest at 13.60 and then a bounce up for the next buy point.
POSITION: PUC JU - Oct. $7.50 call (84 delta) and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pcle.html
PEGA (Pegasystems-- $10.73; -0.67; no options): Business software
Play Date: 06/10/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/p/pega.html
STATUS: 18 day MVA bounce. PEGA hit the buy point Tuesday, but we held off issuing the alert for positions. Volume was not where we wanted it and we did not like the action for the day. Today PEGA turned down for another test of the 18 day MVA, tapping it on the low (10.59). Volume jumped up on the selling, and that gives us caution on this: a lower volume test of the prior high in late May giving way to higher volume selling. That muddies the picture and now we need to see the stock move laterally in the pattern for a couple more days on reduced volume and then give us a strong volume breakout.
Volume: 234.5K Avg Volume: 124.5K
BUY POINT: $11.80 (changed from 11.68). Volume=200K Target=$15.45 Stop=$10.30
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pega.html
SALM (Salem Communications-- $29.00; -0.10; no options): Play Date: 06/03/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/s/salm.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Tested the 18 day MVA (28.57) at the low, but again pulled up to close with a doji. Low volume continues as we have good action in the handle of the 10-month cup with handle; we want to see some lower intraday lows to shake out the last sellers. Outstanding accumulation with accumulation weeks over distribution weeks 12 to 2. Again we are being patient to let the breakout occur.
Volume: 43.7K Avg Volume: 66.05K
BUY POINT: $30.17 Volume=100K Target=$36.2 Stop=$27.50
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/salm.html
Downside
FRX (Forest Labs--$70.25; +0.47; optionable): Drugs
Play Date: 06/10/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/f/frx.html
STATUS: Put. Gave us the buy point on Tuesday and today was heading lower but checked up at the Tuesday low (69.55) and held the line for a modest gain. It rallied up to 71.60 on the high, but gave most of it back. The candlestick chart showed a hammer doji that can signal a test higher, and the 10 day MVA is at 71.88. It could try another move up before falling further. We are looking for it to break through this minor support at 69, perhaps after another test higher, and then let it fall to 65 for us.
Volume: 1.634M Avg Volume: 1.263M
BUY POINT: Holding current positions. New on a move below 69. Volume=1M Target=$68 Stop=$75
POSITION: FRX TO - Aug. $75 put (-52 delta) FHA TP - Aug. $80 put (-69 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/frx.html
LZB (Lazy Boy-- $27.57; +0.34; optionable): Play Date: 06/03/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/l/lzb.html
STATUS: Put. For the fourth consecutive session, tested the 50 day MVA (27.97) at the intraday high, pulling back to close. Volume has been strong and continued that way today. Given that volume has tried to creep up along with money flow we are going to let the stock break below the recent supporting lows at 25.85 before we take new positions.
Volume: 248.6K Avg Volume: 201.86K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $26.95. Break support: 25.85. Volume=300K Target=$23.50 Stop=$29.50
POSITION: LZB SF - July $30 put (delta -63)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lzb.html
MDC (MDC Holdings-- $46.15; +0.30; optionable): Play Date: 06/06/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/m/mdc.html
STATUS: Put. MDC stalled at its simple 50 day MVA (47.85), dropping back but not giving in yet. The move forms the peak of the right shoulder in a head and shoulders pattern, but MDC has shown consecutive dojis on light volume at mid-May lows. The breakdown would be at 42.50, but if we see more weakness in the market we will look at positions on a drop from here.
Volume: 107.7K Avg Volume: 184.727K
BUY POINT: New positions: on a move below 45.50 (Original $44.70) Volume=200K Target=$40.35 Stop=$47
POSITION: MDC SJ - July $50 put (-69 delta) MDC UJ - Sept. $50 put (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mdc.html
MTB (M&T Bank Corp.-- $83.32; +0.11; optionable): Regional bank
Play Date: 06/11/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/m/mtb.html
STATUS: Put. MTB hit the buy point mid-morning as the market was rolling over with volume looking decent. It bottomed at 82.65, however, and was able to join the afternoon rally to close slightly positive though on lower, below average volume. The volume tailed off later in the session as the stock tried to make its climb. Not an impressive, move up, dragged along by rest of the market. Still below the 50 day MVA (84.62), and still primed to fall further.
Volume: 229.2K Avg Volume: 245.5K
BUY POINT: New positions on a move below $82.66 Volume=300K Target=$77.75 Stop=$85.60
POSITION: MTB VR - Oct. $90 put (-64 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mtb.html
PHTN (Photon Dynamics--$33.52; -1.64; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/p/phtn.html
STATUS: Put. Hit the buy point Tuesday as it turned back from the 10 day MVA (36.78), and the selling picked up steam today, continuing down on sharply higher volume. Tapped close to the target today, hitting down to 32.85 at its low.
Volume: 633.2K Avg Volume: 521K
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/phtn.html
PNR (Pentair--$46.79; +0.21; optionable): Machinery
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/p/pnr.html
STATUS: Put. This sector performed well and now is suffering. After giving up the 50 day MVA (46.22) and testing back up, PNR appeared poised for a drop, but gapped over that level Tuesday and, after dipping back through today, managed to close back over today. Still rather weak with below average volume today, and a drop back will complete the right shoulder of a head and shoulders.
Volume: 250K Avg Volume: 304.8K
BUY POINT: $44.70 Volume=300K Target=$39.75 Stop=$47
POSITION: PNR TJ - Aug. $50 put (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pnr.html
QCOM (Qualcom-- $33.00; +1.69; optionable): Play Date: 06/05/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/q/qcom.html
STATUS: Put. Gapped down but then surged back to close with a spike in volume. QCOM closed right at the 50 day MVA, and is threatening to take out the stop on a continued move through resistance. We are inclined, on a move over the 50 day, to see if a test back fails, which is a possibility if the market again turns back again after this bump.
Volume: 20.075M Avg Volume: 13.66M
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/qcom.html
RE (Everest Re Group-- $57.61; -1.59; optionable): Insurance
Play Date: 06/11/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/r/re.html
STATUS: Put: continuing downtrend. RE tanked down today on rising volume, taking out the buy point and giving us a great entry. This is what we were looking for, and now we ride the position down to the target.
Volume: 682.9K Avg Volume: 558.409K
BUY POINT: Riding positions taken (buy point at $58.55). Volume=650K Target=$54 Stop=$63
POSITION: RE VM - Oct. $65 put (-55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/re.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING:
We have put all plays in a summary table that contains the date the stock was put on the report (so you can go back and check out the details of the play) and the other pertinent information. This provides more information than the watchlist summaries and still contains comments when appropriate. VIEW THIS IN COURIER NEW, 12 FOR BEST RESULTS. You can also easily print the table from the website (www.investmenthouse.com) from the 'current reports' section. If you just want to print the table you can cut and paste it to a word document setting the font to Courier New size 12. Just left click on the beginning of the table and drag to the table end. After selecting, right click and select 'copy.' Paste into your word processor. Select it all and choose Courier New, font size 12.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol AvgV Stop
ABF 05/11 BO 21.04 -0.4 22.23 25.75 531K 656K 20.25
Testing the 50 day MVA w/rising volume. That is good.
ATH 06/08 BO 74.6 +1.35 72.25 86.75 1.5M 1.3M 67.19
Looks ready again.
ATH 05/16 Test 50 74.6 +1.35 68.5 75 1.5M 1.3M 63
AXP 06/04 Put 37.14 -1.59 40.9 37.75 8M 4.6M 42.25
Hit the target.
BGG 05/11 Put 38.44 +0.17 39.4 35 132K 144K 42
Tried to rally but no volume.
BL 05/21 cup hdl 22.9 -0.09 23.85 27.5 19K 15K 22
BLC 05/25 Flat 23.2 -0.31 24.25 30 291K 264K 22.55
BYBI 05/23 BO 10.66 +0.21 9.7 12.75 42K 48K 9.02
CAND 06/06 BO 4.86 +0.01 4.98 6.95 161K 284K 4
CERN 05/20 A Wedge 49.97 -1.21 56.1 60 465K 455K 53
Bad news breach of 200 day. Can play a put here.
CMPC 06/12 Test BO 3.94 +0.03 4.1 5.63 206K 151K 3.55
CTX 05/11 Put 53.71 +0.06 53.5 49 664K 1.2M 56
Doji on the 18 day MVA. Low volume.
CVH 06/05 Test BO 32.99 +0.14 32.6 39 593K 432K 29
Bounced off the 18 day MVA on some good volume.
CYMI 06/03 Put 37.55 +0.42 39.45 33.8 1.8M 1.4M 44
Bounced on the semiconductor news. Resistance at 40.
DVN 05/25 A Wedge 47.1 +0.02 50.95 61 1000 1M 47.38
Doji. May come up to test 48.50. Then sell.
ECL 05/23 cup hdl 45.83 +0.12 47.8 57.36 511K 350K 44.45
ERTS 05/30 Cup 63.29 +0.61 66.12 79.5 2.5M 2.9M 61.49
FRX 06/10 Put 70.25 +0.47 72.45 68 1.6M 1.3M 75
FSS 05/22 DB hdl 25.74 +0.26 25.8 31 237K 187K 23.99
Looks ready again!
FTEK 06/01 A Wedge 6.79 +0.04 6.65 8 39K 59K 5.95
Very nice test. Should bounce soon.
HGR 05/20 Test 50 14.46 +0.24 12.6 19 143K 117K 11.72
HI 05/20 Put 52.48 -0.51 53.45 48.5 3.1M 3M 56
HLT 05/06 Put 13.15 -0.47 14.3 12 2.2M 2.1M 15.80
Falling hard again.
HSIC 05/15 BO 47.34 -1.16 49.4 56.9 298K 297K 46.50
Breaking down.
HSY 06/12 Put 65.65 -0.44 65.35 61 536K 516K 67.25
IBC 06/08 BO 28.44 -0.02 28.6 34.96 180K 237K 26.6
IMDC 05/20 Put 31.2 -0.54 29.9 26 43K 203K 32
ITN 05/13 DB hdl 13.1 +0.2 13 16.5 53K 111K 11.75
Not bad. Still in the handle.
JBHT 06/01 A Wedge 28.85 +1.38 28.72 36 837K 435K 25.40
KROL 06/06 BO 22.04 -0.84 20.2 24 269K 329K 19.50
Reversed to the 18 day MVA. No volume on that last high. Bad sign. If it falls further will sell.
LZB 06/03 Put 27.57 +0.34 26.5 23.5 249K 202K 29.50
MDC 06/06 Put 46.15 +0.3 44.7 40.35 108K 185K 47
MTB 06/11 Put 83.32 +0.11 82.95 77.75 229K 246K 85.60
NFB 04/13 BO 38.19 -0.02 36.55 43.5 447K 644K 37
NX 06/01 Test 50 39.8 +1.66 36.5 43.8 132K 100K 33.94
Nice recovery!
OSI 05/29 Test BO 38.12 -0.01 39.05 46.94 419K 483K 36.32
PBG 05/30 Test 18 32.87 +0.12 32.75 36 1.1M 1.2M 30.46
PCLE 06/08 BO 11.6 +0.37 11.5 19.94 917K 622K 10.25
PCLE 05/06 cup hdl 11.6 +0.37 10.27 13 917K 622K 9.40
PEGA 06/10 Test 18 10.73 -0.67 11.68 15.45 234K 124K 10.30
PETC 06/01 Test BO 25.75 -0.11 25.85 31 445K 258K 24.04
Rested after Tuesday's move. May be ready again tomorrow. New over 26.
PHTN 06/08 Put 33.52 -1.64 36.25 32.5 633K 521K 39
PNR 06/08 Put 46.79 +0.21 44.7 39.75 254K 305K 47
Tested the simple 50 day MVA on lower volume.
QCOM 06/05 Put 33 +1.69 31.5 25 24M 14M 33.50
RE 06/11 Put 57.61 -1.59 58.55 54 683K 558K 63
SALM 06/03 cup hdl 29 -0.1 30.17 36.2 44K 66K 27.50
TEVA 06/04 cup hdl 62.38 +1.06 68.05 80 508K 983K 63.29
A bounce; not much of a bounce.
TEVA 05/15 BO 62.38 +1.06 62.1 67 508K 983K 60.50
UVN 05/04 Put 31.86 -5.84 39.95 35.5 18M 1.1M 42
Hit the target.
XRAY 05/25 A Wedge 36.81 -0.45 40.35 48.25 303K 334K 37.53
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
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