stock split, stock recommendation

Begin Part 2 of 2

THE PLAYS: Some good moves today as LLL continued down, and we had other puts snap off alerts, including RYL, BAC and CYN. We are not pushing a lot of new plays at this point, as we do not see many out there right at this moment that are set up to our standards. We have good continuing plays and plays in progress, and we will no doubt see more solid plays set up in the coming days.

BONUS PLAYS: Looking at a new play and a couple of current bonus plays that are still looking good. ZQK still looks pretty good, and we are still watching MAR for the put, although it could test back up a bit first.

AET (Aetna--$49.28; -0.48; optionable): Health care plans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aet.html
STATUS: Saucer with handle. AET broke from a cup with handle in March, making a strong run that tapped a high of 51 before correcting back into the current pattern. Only a six-week base, but showing good action and accumulation. After a strong move up the last week, AET has started to pull back into a handle, dipping with a couple of dojis the last two sessions as volume declines. We could see some more pullback in the handle, looking for light volume and a hold of the 10 day MVA (48.57), but off of that are looking for a breakout. Relative strength is breaking out, and money and buying are solid. Target: 60.
BUY POINT: 50.35 on volume of 1.7m (avg. 1.1m; today down to 849.9k). Stop: 46.83.
POSITION: Stock and/or October $45c to buy (AET JI - 72 delta).

FTEK (Fuel Tech--$6.70; -0.09; no options): Industrial electrical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ftek.html
STATUS: FTEK made a huge breakout last week (our original buy point 6.62), charging up from its 50 day MVA (then 6, now 6.20) and taking out the highs of its ascending wedge. It hit 7.22, and after such a big bounce it is normal for a stock to take a rest. FTEK pulled back from the move, but has behaved well, moving on lighter volume and holding over prior pattern highs at 6.50. Today FTEK showed its second consecutive loose doji over the 10 day MVA (6.62), with volume increasing to 55,100 (avg. 59k). Looking for a continued hold of support and a blast upward. Target: 8.25
BUY POINT: For new or additional positions, a bounce over 6.85 on volume of 80k. Stop: 6.37
POSITION: Stock only (no option chain)

INTU (Intuit--$43.77; -0.53; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/intu.html
STATUS: An attempted breakout from a cup with handle did not run, but instead of retreating with the market, INTU has held on and formed an ascending wedge. We are holding current positions with the good action we have seen. Relative strength is breaking out and price/volume action is also solid, showing higher volume on upward moves, and down volume on drops. Today INTU pulled back toward the strong recent support of its 18 day MVA (43.16), holding again and moving on lighter selling volume (2.12m; avg. 2.47m). We will see if it can bounce and make a breakout. Target: 54
BUY POINT: For new or additional positions - Breakout: 45.10 on volume of 3.7m. Stop: 42 Aggressive: Over 44.58 on volume of 3.7m. Stop: 42
POSITION: Stock and/or October $40c to buy (IQU JH).

Quick updates prior bonus plays:

PEGA - Still holding the 18 day, and looking for a stronger bounce
BAC - Started back on the put, hitting the buy point
TECD - Tested back up on low volume, still looking for the drop
HCA - Holding up on the move
WHI - Looks ready to test back, and watching to hold the 21 range
NEU - Great drop! Still targeting 36
EXPE - Leveled out but still watching for more downside
BJ - Battling the 10 day and still looking for a drop back
THQI - Holding 30, that is the key level we are looking for it to take out
DISH - Hit the target!
CCRD - Looking for the low volume ascent to drop back toward the target of 12
ACV - Still consolidating under resistance, puling back from an attempted move today
EME - Still weak and holding positions for a continued drop toward the target
HP - Fell way back off the intraday high, and on a drop we will look to exit remaining positions

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK:

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT BEST PLAYS: Still looking at BRL, HSIC.
1) HUG - Making a higher low
2) ABC - Holding up after the pullback
3) PHM - Dropping hard after the triple top
4) BRL - Still looking for breakdown

HUG (Hughes Supply--$39.80; -0.24; optionable): Building materials wholesale. Working on a new announcement date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hug.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split in July 1997 at a price of 39, and before that it announced in June 1988 at $27. The annual shareholder meeting was 5-21-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: After dropping hard through the 50 day MVA (38.87) and making a little double bottom, HUG has regrouped and is back over that level. It is forming an ascending wedge, bouncing from the 50 day last week and now looking like it wants to hold the short-term MVA's this time (18 day 39.70). Today HUG showed a loose doji over that support as volume climbed to 163k (avg. 165k). The higher low creates the ascending wedge with the high at 41.68. Excellent buying and good relative strength. Target: 49
BUY POINT: 40.78 on volume of 250k. Stop: 37.90
POSITION: Stock and/or October $35c to buy (HUG JG - 1 OI as yet, 77 delta).

ABC (Amerisourcesbergen--$78.92; +0.32; optionable): Drugs wholesale. We are researching a forecast date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abc.html
BACKGROUND: Last split in March 1999 in the $70 range. The annual shareholder meeting was on 2-27-02 at which time no additional shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: ABC bounced nicely from the 50 day MVA (currently 75.09) last week, making a very strong move Monday. It pulled back off of that move, but after some increased volume selling Wednesday, ABC held support at prior high and the short-term MVA's (18 day at 77.88), showing a 'shooting star' doji on reduced volume of 1.12m (about avg.). After the solid bounce we were looking for a rest that holds support, and this is it. Looking for a continued move. Target 92.
BUY POINT: Over 80 on volume of 1.4 million. Stop: 74.40 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or August $75c to buy (ABC HO).

PHM (Pulte Homes--$50.62; -2.58; optionable): Residential construction.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/phm.html
STATUS: After a strong move in April PHM has bounced between the 50 day MVA and 56. After making a couple of tops at 56, PHM could only reach 55 on the last surge before dropping back, and today the selling volume spiked up as PHM fell through its 50 day MVA (52.14). It is now at the lows of its recent range, having closed right at the day's low. The sector has experienced a drop, and we could see an attempt to test the 50 day, but we could see a strong drop from here. Target: 45.50
BUY POINT: A drop through 50 on continued strong volume. Stop: 53.50
POSITION: October $60p to buy (PHM VL - 47 OI, -67 delta).

PRE-SPLITS BEST PLAYS: Remember, we try to grab Pre-Splits as they break out of good patterns or as they start a run right before the split. Not looking for home runs, but looking for those $3 to $4 moves running into the split, watching for topping signs and potential resistance. Not huge money, but it can be very steady. We set our initial stops at the 7-8% range below the purchase price (or just below obvious support), and move them up on a move to preserve our profits.
1) THC - Looks good

THC (Tenet Healthcare--$76.14; +0.04; optionable): Hospitals. Splits 3:2 effective 7-1-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thc.html
STATUS: THC made a solid recent move to a new high, and announced solid business numbers earlier this week. The stock tapped 78 Tuesday and reversed, but has held up very well over prior highs (75-75.50; 10 day at 74.83). The last two sessions we have seen consecutive dojis as volume declines (today down to 1.22m; avg. 1.67m). Looking for a hold and continued run for this strong stock in a strong sector. Target: 90
PLAY: A move back over 77.10, with stock and/or August $75c to buy (THC HO).

CONTINUING CANDIDATES BEST PLAYS: CYN and MMM are also setting up puts
1) TGH - Pulled back a bit but looking to move up
2) AZO - Looks to be setting up

TGH (Trigon Healthcare--$105.85; -2.31; optionable): Health care plans.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tgh.html
STATUS: Hit the buy point earlier in the week, hitting 109.30 but the move did not continue. However, TGH looks good as it has pulled back on light volume, today very light at 216,500 (avg. 475k). It closed over its 10 day MVA (105.24, right with its May high), which has been support on the recent run. Being acquired by ATH and moving in sync with that stock, and looking good. On a hold of the 10 day, we can look for a bounce to take new or additional positions. Target 125.
PLAY: On a hold of 105 and move back over 107 on volume of 600k, stock and/or October $100c to buy (TGH JT).

AZO (Autozone--$81.00; -1.04; optionable): Auto Parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/azo.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in March of 1994 at a price of $58. The annual shareholder meeting was on 12-14-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized.
STATUS: Has held up on the breakout and formed an ascending wedge. It hit up to 84.50 Monday, but pulled back to close and has pulled slightly back the last few sessions on below average volume (down to 747k today; avg. 1.04m). It is holding the 18 day MVA (80.36), which was support on the last bounce. Looking for another strong upward move to add to positions or take new ones. Target: Run to 100
BUY POINT: On a move over 83.50 with volume of 1.4m. Stop 78.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $80c to buy (AZO IP).

POST-SPLIT BEST PLAYS: RYL started down and is still a put buy
1) FBC - Starting a bounce
2) FOSL - Still strong

FBC (Flagstar Bancorp--$21.42; +0.72; optionable): Split 3:2 effective 6-3-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fbc.html
STATUS: FBC made a very nice bounce from the 50 day MVA (currently 19.33) last week, although the initial move culminated with a gap up to 22 (high is 22.75) and reversal. The reversal settled down quickly, holding the short-term MVA's (18 day at 20.47) as it pulled laterally and slightly down with four consecutive dojis. We were looking for a move off of that pattern, and today FBC made a nice bounce up, hitting the buy point as volume spiked way up to 132,500 (avg. 85k). Looking for a continued move over the highs. Target: 26
PLAY: Aggressive: A move over 21.70 with continued strong volume. Stock (no option chain). Stop: 20.30

FOSL (Fossil--$22.55; +0.50; optionable): Recreational goods. Splits 3:2 effective 6-10-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fosl.html
STATUS: A great move up from 20 the last week. After running hard Friday, FOSL pulled back but has held the recent highs in the 22 range (and 10 day MVA, at 21.88). Today FOSL started back up a bit, with volume increasing to 207,800 (avg. 135k). Looking good on this test, and looking for a continued move. Pushing target out to 27. Good money flow, buying, and relative strength is breaking out again.
PLAY: Over 23 on continued strong volume, with stock and/or September $20c to buy (AFU ID - 60 OI).

WATCHLISTS:

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS WATCHLIST: BMS, CTAS, DLX, EDMC, HSIC, JEF, LSTR, NYT, STU, TFX (7/17), WFMI and XL.

BRL ($63.12; +0.29): Put. Hit the buy point on the put today but did not have any volume behind it (351k, looking for 500k). It showed a loose doji, still in at the lows of its large descending wedge. Still looking for a strong breakdown. Target of 55.
BUY POINT: A drop through 62 on volume of 500k. Stop: 67
POSITION: August $70p to buy (BRL TN - 121 OI, -.68 delta).

HSIC ($47.63; +0.29): Has formed a head and shoulders, and after dropping back on increased volume through the 50 day MVA (47.67) Wednesday, HSIC tested back up to tap its 18 day MVA at today's high of 48.70. It could not hold, retreating back to close with a doji on much lower volume (168,700). Still looking for the breakdown. Target: 43.
BUY POINT: Below 46.85 on volume of 320k. Stop: 49.25
POSITION: October $55p to buy (HQE VK - 10 OI, -67 delta).

SLM ($92.01; -1.19): After the strong relief bounce Wednesday, SLM continued the drop today on reduced volume. Trying to hold support at 92, but looking for a continued fall to the target of 89.

MUR ($87.49; +1.33): A little bounce but volume was light and it pulled back from the 10 day MVA to close. Still targeting 84 (200 day MVA at 83.47).

PDCO ($50.15; +0.96): Researching a date. Strong selling but a good intraday rebound Wednesday from the range of the 50 day MVA (47.09). Today it gapped down and pushed back over the 18 day (49.32), and we are protecting any remaining positions.

PRE-SPLITS WATCHLIST: Watching BER (7/3), JNC (6/25), MI (6/17), IFIN (6/17), PMI (6/18), EXPD (6/25), STJ (6/29) and GMRK (7/1).

HCBK ($39.40; -0.60): Splits 2:1 effective June 18. Gapped back on huge volume, but did not continue back, holding the 10 day MVA to close. Looking for a hold of 39 (18 day MVA, holding positions and we will see if it can bounce back.

YUM ($64.00; -0.43): Splits 2:1 effective 6-18-02. Continued back a bit but on light volume, closing below the 18 day (64.28) but we are holding positions. Stop: 61. Target 72.

KSWS ($45.69; -0.25): Splits 2:1 effective June 22. Has rebounded back over the 50 day MVA (44), but the move was weak and appears to be stalling at the late May consolidation. We will see if it sells back again here and sets up a put.

PNRA ($67.34; -1.96): Splits 2:1 effective June 25. Has pulled back to the 18 day MVA after its fine run. Selling back has been on low volume, so we are looking for a hold here.

JILL ($35.65; -0.10): Split 3:2 effective July 1. After last Friday's great bounce JILL has continued to move up gradually (with huge volume Thursday on being added to the S&P madcap 600). With today's doji we are looking for a bit of a pullback, holding 34. Target 41.

CONTINUING CANDIDATES WATCHLIST: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date. These include ACDO, AHC, ASD, BBBY, CAKE, DIAN, EASI, ETH, ETN, GNSS, KRB, KSS, MEG, MGA, MHK, MMM, MTG, PII, RCII, RUS, STI, and TGIC.

CYN ($51.00; -0.98): Dropped back again today. CYN took out the put buy point and we are targeting 48.50.

DHR ($63.08; -1.37): A great drop, and it is right at the target!

DRYR ($42.96; -0.27): Has been stubborn on the put play, again dropping a bit today (and on higher volume of 161,600), but not taking out the recent consolidation lows (42.65). Still targeting 38 on the put.

FITB ($63.02; -0.64): Continues down, tapping very near the target of 62.68 (low today 62.81). Ready to take profits.

KLAC ($48.64; -0.46): Holding up over the new buy point of 47.50, today testing the 10 day MVA at its high of 50.57 before pulling back to close with a doji. We will see if there is more selling in the market and with KLAC, targeting 44 with current positions, and the aggressive can still look at new ones in a weak Nasdaq.
BUY POINT: A drop through 47.50 on increased volume. Stop: 51.50
POSITION: September $55p to buy (KCQ UK - -61 delta).

WEN ($39.76; -0.29): A solid move up, with slowing finally today, dipping a bit on much lower volume. Good action, and we are holding through a mild dip and still targeting 44.

POST SPLITS WATCHLIST: Watching ACS, APOL, APPB, ANN, BBY, CHBS, CHS, DF, ESI, GTK, JAH, JEC, MCHP, MKC, OPTN, RNR, RYAN, SRCL, STZ, UOPX, UPC, WLP, WTNY, and WTSLA.

AMAT ($20.38; -0.32): Hanging in there for the moment, testing the 10 day MVA today at its high before retreating to close with a doji. We are still targeting 18 on the put.

ATK ($67.32; -0.77): Split 3:2 on or about June 11. Hanging on in a consolidation below the 50 day (69.33; with the short-term MVA's as well). Still poised for a drop, and we are targeting 60.

COCO ($27.69; -0.76): A fine 50 day MVA bounce last week, but it has given much of it back now. The 50 day is below at 27.12).

CPS ($45.33; -1.07): Split 4:3 effective 6-7-02. Broke from the ascending wedge last week, but has come back now, trying to hold prior highs and the 18 day MVA, at 45. We will see if it can hold here and try again to make a move on 49.50.

FAST ($38.03; -0.74): Has dropped back and taken out our aggressive buy point on the put. Targeting 36.

LLL ($54.70; -2.90): Split 2:1 effective 5-21-02. Gapped down on big volume and continued to fall, making the put play super! Targeting 51, but we could get a relief bounce in here soon.

PFCB ($33.54; -0.81): Is holding on fairly well, coming back a bit but not dropping with the vigor we were looking for in a put play. An aggressive put buy on a drop through 33, with October $37.50p to buy (HUO VU).

PRV ($25.81; -0.39): Broke out but volume was not great, and it turned back around. Still holding up at prior pattern highs and the 10 day MVA, today with another doji. We will see if it can hold. Target 30.

RYL ($49.18; -3.22): Split 2:1 effective 5-31-02. Dropped back today through the put buy point, taking out the recent lows. Volume was not great, but we will look for RYL to pick up steam and head down toward the target of 42.50.

ZRAN ($19.84; -0.16): Like some of the other semis, reached up to its 10 day MVA and then pulled back to close with a doji. Has hit our put buy point but without the volume we were looking for. The aggressive can still take positions on a drop through 18.68 in a weak market, targeting 14 (but wary of a bounce). September 23.375p to buy (HZL UV - 27 OI, -.59 delta).

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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